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OPTIMISATION OF DISASTER FORECASTING AND PREVENTION MEASURES IN THE CONTEXT OF HUMAN AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science for Peace and Security (SPS). The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) Defence Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, Partner and Mediterranean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally “Advanced Study Institutes” and “Advanced Research Workshops”. The NATO SPS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO’s “Partner” or “Mediterranean Dialogue” countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience. Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action. Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and reorganised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E.
Chemistry and Biology Physics and Biophysics Environmental Security Information and Communication Security Human and Societal Dynamics
Springer Science and Business Media Springer Science and Business Media Springer Science and Business Media IOS Press IOS Press
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Sub-Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics – Vol. 52
ISSN 1874-6276
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics
Edited by
Ion Apostol Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Moldova
David L. Barry Director, DLB Environmental, Cranleigh, Surrey, United Kingdom
Wilhelm G. Coldewey University of Münster, Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Department of Applied Geology, Germany
and
Dieter W.G. Reimer UWIK-CONSULTING, Bonn, Germany
Amsterdam • Berlin • Tokyo • Washington, DC Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics Chisinau, Moldova 7–10 April 2008
© 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-1-58603-948-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008944037 Publisher IOS Press BV Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail: [email protected] Distributor in the UK and Ireland Gazelle Books Services Ltd. White Cross Mills Hightown Lancaster LA1 4XS United Kingdom fax: +44 1524 63232 e-mail: [email protected]
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved.
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Preface Following the very successful Workshop (ARW) in April 2007, which was structured on the basis of the ever-increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters in the region, the second ARW was convened on 7–10 April 2008 in Chisinau, Moldova. This was aimed at further supplementing the efforts to transfer technology and knowledge and so help decrease the vulnerability of the population to both natural and man-made disasters. As the Moldova–NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) has foreseen, the follow-up ARW tried to unify the efforts of the scientific community in creating a greater understanding of the various threats to society and the environment. Thus, this ARW had the task of further evaluating accumulated European theoretical knowledge and practical experience in the relevant fields of concern so that practical recommendations can be developed for the prevention and mitigation of disasters. The agenda consisted of about 30 presentations (from ten countries), and discussions, that addressed a wide range of disaster-management regimes. The principal themes focused (for a series of typical disaster scenarios) on how these disasters can affect both the human and natural environments. Accordingly, the presentations and syndicate discussions covered the following areas of concern: natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods; man-made disasters such as accidents at mining and tailings dams; nuclear/radiological facilities; transport accidents involving hazardous materials; fires; and environmental contamination. Monitoring and the assessment of health and environmental pollution risks, as well as the communication of these risks to the public, were also discussed. The essence of the various themes centred on the integrated techniques for predicting, measuring and assessing the various physical, environmental, health and social risks, and how these risks might be prevented or at least mitigated. The ARW again recognised the complex inter-relationships between several of the key factors that must be involved, to varying degrees of sophistication, in the overall management of the range of hazards and their associated risks. These factors include: monitoring; risk and other modelling exercises; control measures (such as licensing); public liaison and information management (including education); and cost-benefit assessments. The scientific content of the presentations, and the subsequent written papers, were thus focused on: risk assessment as part of national policies regarding protection of man and environment; the need for strong co-operation at international and national levels; using a cost–benefit approach; information sharing and networking; and vulnerability as a moderating factor in risk assessment. The presentations appeared to be very useful especially to those partner countries that are developing their legal framework in civil emergency planning as well as in environmental protection. (Some participating countries, such as Moldova, the Ukraine and Georgia, are aligning their legal frameworks to EU directives and other international standards.) The ARW contributions reflected the extensive experience in the participating countries (namely, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Germany, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the Ukraine, together with a further written paper from the Netherlands) in the field of combating natural and man-made
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disasters, as well as how their secondary impacts should be assessed and adapted to the specific conditions in the Republic of Moldova. In the opinion of the ARW participants there is a continuing need to convene similar more dedicated follow-up ARWs, with the aim of gaining a greater understanding of further specific topics, such as environmental and health monitoring, drought conditions, and the role of land-use planning, in mitigating the effects of natural disasters and preventing man-made disasters.
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Contents Preface
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Theme 1. Land-Based Hazards/Risks Forecasting and Preventing Disasters from Natural or Man-Made Fires in Forest Areas Lăcrămioara Boz, Lavinia Tofan and Ovidiu Toma Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia T. Chelidze, N. Tsereteli, E. Tsereteli, L. Kaldani, J. Dolidze, O. Varazanashvili and D. Svanadze A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests: Prediction and Prevention of Natural and Man-Made Disasters Valentin Popa and Ovidiu Toma GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings Anton Zaicenco and Vasile Alkaz Actuarial Risk Management Through Geological Risk-Geoinformation Systems (RiskGIS) T. Rudolph
3 11
23 29
37
Theme 2. Water-Based Hazards/Risks Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection Plamen Gramatikov
51
Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning Stephan Anke, Werner Blohm and Michael Lechelt
66
Cost-Benefit in Water Hazard Management Marcel Fälsch
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The Environmental Benefits from the Treatment of Waste Water and Slime Derived from Crude Water Preconditioning at S.C. CET Iaşi S.A. Mugurel Rotariu, Dorin Ivana, Lavinia Tofan, Monica Rotariu and Ovidiu Toma Economic and Legal Aspects Related to the Prevention and Mitigation of Flood Risks and Their Consequences for Tirlisua (Bistrita-Nasaud): A Case Study from Northern Romania Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag, Dacinia Crina Petrescu, Doina Petri and Alexandru Ozunu
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98
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Theme 3. Mining/Industrial Hazards/Risks Emergency Planning for Tailings Dams Wilhelm G. Coldewey Environmental Protection Measure Assessment in Affected Area of Ponds Collecting Waste Mine-Water in Western Donbass Galyna P. Yevgrashkina, Dmytro V. Rudakov and Mykola M. Kharytonov Management of Risks Associated with Mining Wastes (Tailings Dams and Waste Heaps) Oana-Cristina Modoi, Lucrina Ştefănescu, Sanda Mărginean, Corina Arghiuş and Alexandru Ozunu Some Results from Dynamic Monitoring Linked to Mining: Case Studies in Bulgaria (Provadia) and Belarus (Starobin) I. Paskaleva, A. Aronov, G. Valev, R. Seroglazov, M. Kouteva and T. Aronova
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122
130
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Mining Dump Rehabilitation: The Potential Role of Bigeminate-Legged Millipeds (Diplopoda) and Artificial Mixed-Soil Habitats O. Pakhomov, Y. Kulbachko, O. Didur and I. Loza
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The Potential of Liquid Rocket Fuel for Regional Catastrophes and Prevention Solutions Wolfgang Spyra
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Contaminated Sites – Risk Management in Austria Heide Jobstmann
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Theme 4. Health/Radiological Hazards/Risks Radio-Ecological Monitoring in Moldovan Agricultural Industry as a Factor for Forecasting, Evaluating and Mitigating the Impacts of Radiological Pollution of Agricultural Land Semion Nedealkov
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The Cytogenetic Status of Human Organism as a Diagnostic Parameter in a System of Socio-Ecological Monitoring Alla Gorova, Irina Klimkina and Yury Buchavy
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Medical and Biological Aspects of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Influence on the Population of the Republic of Moldova Liubov Coretchi and Ion Bahnarel
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Theme 5. Hazard/Risk Communication/Public Participation PIMS as a Communication Tool Between PfP Nations in Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness PIMS Program Licensing of Hazardous Industries and Public Participation in the Ukraine Tetyana Bodnarchuk
241 247
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Man-Made Disaster Prevention: The Role of Risk Assessment in Development Control D.L. Barry
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International Cooperation for Emergency Warning and Prevention of Catastrophes in Kura River Basin Kristine Sahakyan
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Communication Problems During an Emergency and Lessons Learned Aysen Turkman and Ayla Uysal
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Public Participation and Information Through the Licensing Phase of Industrial Facilities to Optimize Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures Juliane Knaul
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Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany and Their Legal Basis Peter Pascaly
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Author Index
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Theme 1 Land-Based Hazards/Risks
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-3
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Forecasting and Preventing Disasters from Natural or Man-made Fires in Forest Areas Lăcrămioara BOZ 1 , Lavinia TOFAN 2, Ovidiu TOMA 3* 1
Faculty of Law, Centre of Studies – Focúani, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Lunii Street no. 6, BRASOV / ROMANIA, Tel. (+40 268) 319 806; Fax (+40 268) 319 948; E-mail: [email protected]; http:// www.universitateagbaritiu.ro 2
3*
Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Gh. Asachi Technical University of Iaúi, Bd. D. Mangeron, nr. 71 A, IASI/ ROMANIA, Tel (+40 232) 278680; E-mail: [email protected]
Faculty of Biology, Department of Molecular and Experimental Biology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Bd. Carol I , no. 20 A , 700505 IASI / ROMANIA Tel. (+40 232) 201630 ; Fax (+40 232) 201472; http://www.bio.uaic.ro; E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. This paper is intended as an 'alarm signal' for the preservation of the two priceless valuables, human life and the environment. It is essential for this approach to empower the idea of rendering everybody responsible for all factors in the sense that they should extend to individuals’ efforts as well as to team efforts in order to preserve life and the environment. This is achieved by complying with prevention regulations for fire hazards in forest areas and also by proper behaviour concerning the warning, evacuation and saving people in a forest area on fire. In addition, the article aims to render public opinion sensitive enough to understand that forest fires are disasters that can be avoided, or at least limited, and carrying forward positive results is entirely in man’s power. Keywords. disasters, forest fires, education, forecasting, prevention
Introduction Disasters always occur and they threaten the world population more and more often and with increasing power. Besides, those due to natural causes, such as earthquakes, unstable ground, avalanches, drought, floods, hurricanes, and tornados, there are also on-going man-made disasters caused by nuclear accidents, the testing of certain types of ammunition used in military operations, pollution under various forms, massive forest clearing, and the setting on fire of thousands of hectares of forests. All these aggravate the phenomenon of global warming and its major effects on the irreversible damage on the ozone layer [1-7]. Natural disasters are due to inevitable natural phenomena and they are impossible to prevent, while disasters due to irresponsible or indifferent human behaviour can be limited or even eradicated. Losses of any kind from disasters are huge: human lives,
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material damage and environmental deterioration. Some disasters could be prevented so that the negative effects can be minimal [8-12].
1. General Considerations The deterioration of the environment caused by man can not only cause the destruction of ecological equilibrium, but also implies a response on the part of the environment – which is qualitatively altered – against humans. The new environmental conditions thus created are less favourable to a healthy life. In the following examples the emphasis will be laid on disasters caused by both nature and man whose consequences, regardless their origin, are of huge impact, that is, for instance, forest fires (Photo 1), which can be considered a real crime against the environment.
Photo 1 – Forest fire [13] Modern society, continuously challenged by change, acknowledges the priceless value of forests as a refuge and way of relaxation, and for its property of ensuring lifeneeded oxygen. Unfortunately, not all beneficiaries have regard for these sanctuaries of nature. The price of their reckless and indifferent acts most often leads to real catastrophes. Creating a fire in the forest and leaving the place without having extinguished it or doing it improperly, throwing a cigarette at random, uncovering a fire without warning the authorities about its existence or, even worse, committing arson in a forest area, are actions that can turn forests into torches. The fire is an event that escapes one’s control as far as its spreading, intensity and duration are concerned and that is why it requires the professional intervention of firefighters who have proper equipment and techniques, as well as the tactics, necessary to approach such emergencies (Photo 2).
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Photo 2 – The intervention of firemen [13] A fire will break out whenever three conditions are met: air, a source of heat (flame), and combustible matter (solid, liquid or gas). If one of these conditions is no longer fulfilled, the fire is extinguished, as the flame is no longer fed. The source of heat may be natural (such as lightening or volcanic lava) or man-made. Most cases of forest fire hazard are due to drought and very hot summer temperatures (known as canicula) – the forest, because of its wooden matter (i.e. trees), may be considered as combustible in its entirety. The fire can burn both live vegetation, such as trees, branches and leaves, and similar dead vegetation. A forest fire is classified as such when it causes a minimum area of 1ha to be destroyed. The causes of forest fires are natural or anthropogenic. The influence of natural factors is explained by weather conditions and the characteristics of a particular type of vegetation. Summer periods, characterized by drought and strong winds, are favourable to the breaking out of fires, as the wind makes the soil dry faster and increases the risk that the fire could propagate a long distance. The heat dries the vegetation and, by evaporation, the volatile essences that ensure the propagation of fire are released into the atmosphere. Lightning and the incandescent projectiles from erupting volcanoes are also natural factors originating fires (Photo 3).
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Photo 3 – The fight with fire [13] The human factor is also a cause of fires because of improper behaviour as far as prevention regulations are concerned, that is to say owing to some people’s behaviour (such as smoking or using fires for cooking) during entertainment activities. Besides carelessness and indifference to forest fires, what is also especially dangerous is the intentional act of setting on fire – arson – a forest for reasons that could not possibly extenuate the gravity of such a crime. In recent years, the news on disasters due to forest fires has been continuously brought to public attention by mass media. In Portugal, a country with activities in the wood industry at a European level, had losses from fires that amounted to €1 billion and, of course, with catastrophic effects on human life and environmental damage. The Greek authorities called the devastating fire of 2007 'Europe’s unprecedented catastrophe'. Despite all the efforts and forces engaged in this terrible fight, the fire laid waste a large part of Greece and the scientists stated that the loss of the forest area equalled the effect on the atmosphere of the overnight doubling of the number of cars, and that it is also an essential loss for the natural cooling system. In Peru, a fire quickly propagated to the forested sides of the Urubamba valley and endangered Machu Picchu, the ancient Inca city. The firemen intervened with great difficulty because of the uneven ground and the wind, and thick smoke prevented the helicopters and planes from spreading extinguishing substances. In Oregon, USA, over 200,000ha of forest burnt in 2002; in Belgrade and Kosovo, Serbia, over 300,000ha of forest burnt and the fires broke out in several places simultaneously. In 2003 in Australia, fire destroyed an area three times larger than Great Britain and quickly spread because of the canicula and the gusts of wind; it burnt to the ground the houses
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of the inhabitants, even killing people, despite the desperate efforts of thousands of firemen sent out on a mission to stop the fire. The examples may continue and, as shown, all areas in the world are potentially affected. A forest fire, regardless of its cause, is devastating and very hard to beat, as the circumstances are always difficult: uneven ground, places out of reach, intervention forces which are hardly enough when compared with the intensity and extent of the fire, favouring conditions such as heat, drought, high wind, lack of water, and deficiency of equipment (such as special-need vehicles, helicopters and planes). In Romania in 2007, every region of the country faced forest fires (Photo 4).
Photo 4 – 'Slaughtered nature' [13] Yearly almost 350ha of forest are lost in fires in Romania, the damage being most significant if the long-term effects are also taken into account: the extinction of flora and fauna which, needless to say, sometimes include rare species, the alteration of both environment and landscape, and the loss of human lives.
2. Control Materials and Methods The intervention of firemen, besides the use of special-need vehicles (Photo 5), also involves the use of tools such as shovels, big brooms, sandbags, and rubber rugs to extinguish the fire on the ground.
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Photo 5 – The use of special-need vehicles [13] Because of the catastrophe that happened in Greece, with more than 65 victims and over 200,000ha of forest burnt to ashes, and all the other forest fires in Europe, in the autumn of 2007 the European Union discussed the creation of a European Civil Protection Force designed to intervene in the case of a disaster on the territory of any Member State.
3. Results and Discussions Based on the information so far presented, several question arise naturally: x0003 What should be done? x0003 What are the steps to be taken in order to avoid such catastrophes? and x0003 What are the rules with which one must comply in order to reduce fire hazard? In order to prevent forest fires from happening it is utterly important to convey recommendation-type information concerning the behaviour of citizens (adults as well as minors) and their education should focus on the way in which disasters can be prevented.
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The first step in this direction is to comply with the specific safety procedures: x0003 the training of personnel involved in any activity in forest areas on wood exploitation; x0003 maintenance of forests with stress on safety regulations in the event of fire; x0003 the organization of patrol intense-rhythm activities during drought periods; x0003 good maintenance of forest roads so as to allow quick and easy movement of the special-need vehicles and intervention forces (Photo 5); x0003 ensuring water supplies by building accesses and arranging car platforms; x0003 appropriating forest ranges with means of first intervention (such as sand, shovels and big brooms); and x0003 planning pleasure spots and placing panels showing the main regulations for preventing and extinguishing forest fires. Of course, the most important measure is that of educating people on what the prevention regulations are and how one is expected to properly behave in case of forest fire, namely: x0003 remain calm; x0003 if a member of a group (tourists etc.) then do not panic the others; x0003 leave the area immediately; x0003 inform immediately the inhabitants about the fire; x0003 call 112 – Dispatcher’s Office for Emergencies and give the most accurate information possible; inform the authorities if there are any group of tourists or forest workers in the area in order to locate and evacuate them as well; x0003 if someone’s clothes take fire, roll the person on the ground and stifle his or her clothes; x0003 if the air becomes unbreathable due to thick smoke, crawl (on one’s knees and elbows); and help children, the old and the disabled to be evacuated first. A forest fire always exceeds the capacity of one or two persons to extinguish it and that is why they should not waste time in trying to do so, but should inform the intervention forces as soon as possible. Also, they must warn all the people met on their way out of that area in order to give them the chance to save themselves by leaving the place immediately.
4. Conclusions To prevent a forest fire or to make all the efforts to inform the intervention forces in due time is a duty of honour of every citizen, regardless of his or her citizenship, ethnicity or reason for being in that place – as inhabitant or tourist. It is everyone’s right and duty to watch over a healthy environment for both present and future generations.
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References [1] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Educatie úi prevenire, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation “SIGPROT 2005”, 8th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2005, 144 -149 Bucharest, Romania [2] Boz Lăcrămioara, Dan Marciuc, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Concursuri de desene, “Pompierii români” review, 7/2005/, Bucharest, Romania [3] Boz Lăcrămioara, Dan Marciuc, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Rolul conlucrării cu O.N.G.-urile în educaĠiaúsi prevenirea incendiilor, “Pompierii ieúeni” review, 2005, 4th year, no. 4, Iasi, Romania [4] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, EducaĠia úi prevenirea incendiilor în unităĠile de învăĠământ”, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation “SIGPROT 2006”, 9th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2006, 47-53, Bucharest, Romania [5] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Împreună pentru siguranĠa copiilor, “Salvatorii ieúeni” review, 2006, ”, 5th year 5, no. 2, Iasi, Romania [6] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, SituaĠii de urgenĠă – educaĠie úi prevenire în mediul rural, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation, “SIGPROT 2007”, 10th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2007, Bucharest, Romania [7] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, VacanĠă în siguranĠă, “Salvatorii ieúeni” review, 2007, 6th year, no. 2, Iasi, Romania [8] Toma, Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Consortium Regional de Recherche Moldova - pour la Monitorisation et Protection d’Environnement – pour une meilleure gestion de la biodiversité, Conférence internationale, sous le haut patronage de Monsieur Jacques Chirac, Président de la République française, et de Monsieur Koïchiro Matsuura, Directeur général de l'UNESCO, “Biodiversite: science et gouvernance”, 2005, UNESCO, Paris, France [9] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life, the World Conference on Ecological Restoration “Ecological Restoration – A Global Challenge”, 2005, Zaragoza, Spain [10] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The Moldavian University Regional Consortium for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life and for student service improvement, 1st Biennial Conference of the International EcoHealth and Ecology, “EcoHealth ONE: Forging Collaboration between Ecology and Health”, University of Wisconsin, 2006, Wisconsin-Madison, USA [11] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Recherche régionale pour la monitorisation et protection de l’environnement, gestion biodiversité, journees scientifiques “Recherche et développement durable: approches, méthodologies, stratégies d’action et de formation”, Centre de Recherches et de Transferts Technologies de l’Université Abdelhamid IBN BADIS-Chemin des CretesMostaganem, 2006, Mostaganem, Algeria [12] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Research Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions because of the prevention of natural and human ecological catastrophes, NATO Security through Science Book, IOS Press, 2007, 1, Amsterdam, Holland [13] *** www.igsu.ro (photos)
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-11
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Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia T. CHELIDZE, N. TSERETELI, E. TSERETELI, L. KALDANI, J. DOLIDZE, O. VARAZANASHVILI and D. SVANADZE Department of Seismology and Experimental Physics, Institute of Geophysics, Alecidze Nr 1, 0171, Tbilisi, Georgia
Abstract. The critical importance of accurate mapping and assessment of natural hazards and risks is discussed, which hazards and risks relate not only to seismic events but also to floods and avalanches, and their consequences. Accurate mapping is crucial in the early warning process and there is evidence of considerable discrepancies in previous mapping efforts. These discrepancies can have major economic effects on, for example, investment potential and insurance factors. Thus, hazards must be more accurately defined and risk assessments must be based on multi-risk calculation methods. Keywords. Georgia, earthquake, avalanche, landslide, debris flow, flash flood, population density, multiple risks, risk discrepancies
Introduction The sustainable development of the Southern Caucasus (SC) region depends critically on the correct assessment of natural hazards that are characteristic for different areas of this mountainous region: earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, flash-floods and floods, and avalanches. The destruction caused in recent decades by strong seismic events (such as Spitak, Racha, Tbilisi and, Baku) and other natural hazards, has seriously affected the national economies of the SC countries. The rate of risks associated with these hazards increases every year due to the appearance of new complicated technological features such as oil and gas pipelines, communication lines, large dams, power stations, and chemical factories. The GIS-technology, together with space images, allows exact mapping of such risks and the assessment of integrated effects. For example, earthquakes induce many secondary effects that may cause even larger damage than the event itself. Combining maps of seismic hazard with maps of landslide-prone areas, lakes, and large engineering features, gives the chance to evaluate integrated hazards and risks. Exact cartography of hazards is very important for planning investments and insurance activities, as well as for providing for the safety of the population of the region. The topic is in full agreement with main priorities of Hyogo Framework of Action, namely to identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. The framework also calls for the promotion of: regional programmes, including technical cooperation; capacity enhancement; the development of methodologies and standards for hazard and vulnerability monitoring and assessment; the sharing of information;
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and the effective mobilization of resources. This work was initiated by the specifically devised programme of EUR-OPA: GIS Mapping of Integrated Major Hazards in the Southern Caucasus as the early warning tool and From Hazards to Risks – Comparative analysis of Assessment Techniques in the South Caucasus region. According to the programme scientists from Georgia compiled GIS-based maps at a scale of 1:000 000 for five hazards (namely, earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, avalanches and flashfloods) because they cause the largest mortality and economic losses.
1. Disaster Cartography as an Early Warning Tool At present the concept of early warning is considered as one of the main directions in disaster management and the importance of such systems was confirmed by the recent Sumatra earthquake and tsunami. At the same time it is clear that an early warning is possible only for some specific hazards, such as tsunamis, hurricanes and storms, when the source and propagation details are known exactly. For most disasters (such as earthquakes, landslides, volcano eruptions, debris flows, etc.) that information is partially or totally absent. The early warning of strong seismic events, based on the difference of propagation velocities of elastic waves and triggered electromagnetic signal, gives too short (from several to dozen of seconds) a warning time for realization of preventive activities and is quite expensive. That is why we think that the concept of early warning systems should include the probabilistic assessment/mapping of hazards and the recurrence period. This approach allows the implementation of activities which reduce considerably the losses and casualties. To develop that approach it is necessary to have the statistical information on disasters as well as effective monitoring system.
2. Mapping of Mass-Movement Potential on the Territory of Georgia: Criteria for Destabilization The landslide and debris flow static zoning of Georgia is based on the integrated analysis of main factors, which upset the balance of forces and destroy the existing state of equilibrium. There are three main factors: (i) the state and properties of rocks, which defines the sensitivity of geological formations to impacting forces; (ii) the geometry and slope of the terrain (i.e. topography); and (iii) the climatic characteristics of the territory. For landslide-hazard mapping the criterion of “Landslide potential” was used and the intensity of landslide processes on the given area of a definite climatic zone, is characterized by the following two coefficients: (i) coefficient of areal damage (Kp) which is the ratio of (a) area damaged by landslides Fp to (b) the entire area (F) of a given homogeneous geological space: Kp = Fp/F (ii) the “density” of landslide events (D) namely, the number of landslides (N) normalized to the same area F: D = N/F
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Figure 1. Landslide hazard zones in Georgia.
Both these coefficients vary in the range from 0 to 1. Their average values gives the integrated characteristic of landslide hazard (maximum is 1). Landslide hazard zones are delineated according to following rules (Fig. 1): high >0.5 medium 0.1–0.5 low 0.001–0.1 no or very low ≤0.001. Besides these stationary factors, mass-movements can be stimulated by short-term perturbations, such as earthquakes, intensive meteorological impact and man-made effects. The time-dependence in the static maps can be introduced by taking into account the deviation of meteorological parameters from the long term average (LTA), mainly considering the intensity and duration of deviation. Accordingly, the following three situations can be distinguished: ‘stable’, ‘normal’ and ‘extreme’. The ‘stable’ situation is expected when the precipitation and air humidity is less than the long-term average. The situation is ‘normal’ (i.e. background state) if the deviation is small; say if the precipitation exceeds the long term average by no more than 100mm per year. The ‘extreme’ situation is expected when precipitation exceeds the LTA by 200–400 mm. For assessment of debris flow hazards (Fig. 2) a combination of several parameters is used, namely: (i) ratio of total length of debris-flow generating rivers (∑l) to the total length of a given river basin (L): Ks1 = ∑l/L; (ii) ratio of number of generating rivers of debris flow basin (∑n) to the number of rivers of a given basin, where debris flow events were not registered (n): Ks2 = ∑n/n;
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T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
Figure 2. Debris flow and mudflow hazard zones in Georgia.
(iii) ratio of total area of debris-flow generating rivers (∑f) to the total area a given river basin (F): Ks3 = ∑f/F; and (iv) ratio of total area of active debris-flow sources that feed generating rivers (∑s) to the total area of these river basins (F): Ks4 = ∑s/F.
3. Mapping of Flash-Flood and Flood Hazards in Georgia The orography (i.e. the nature of the mountainous terrain) of the territory is of decisive value in assessing flash-flood and flood hazards. The flooding of a river basin can be caused by: (i) melting of snow cover, especially when the air temperature is rising fast and there is intensive rain; (ii) heavy showers in the summer/autumn period; (iii) incessant autumn rains, covering large part of a river basin; and (iv) intensive winter rains of short duration in the seaside areas of the Black Sea. For the South Caucasus the most typical hazards are rivers with springtides, rivers with high waters in the warm period of a year, and rivers with flood flows. Maximal water discharge during such anomalous events can be almost 30 times larger than the average annual water discharge. The critical values of precipitation per 12 hours that cause disastrous water flows, and flooding in rivers and dry ravines are:
T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
15
Figure 3. Flash flood hazard zones in Georgia.
(i) in the seaside regions of Western Georgia > 130 mm; (ii) in the central and western part of Colchis lowland and adjoining mountains slopes >100 mm; (iii) in the remaining part of Western Georgia, on the Southern slopes of Larger Caucasus >80 mm; and (iv) in the remaining part of Eastern Georgia – 60 mm. Using these critical values, the recurrence rates of disastrous heavy rains are calculated and corresponding flash-flood hazard maps are compiled (Fig. 3). recurrence once in less than 6 years; High > 16%: Medium 8–16%: recurrence once in 6–12 years; Low 4–8%: recurrence once in 12–25 years; and No or very low < 4%: recurrence once in 25 years. 4. Avalanche Zoning of Georgia For avalanche hazard zoning of Georgia the following two quantitative parameters are used: • •
“density” of avalanche sources, namely, the number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley (n/L); and recurrence rate of avalanche events, namely, the number of avalanches generated by a given source in ten years (ni/100).
For mapping of sources the results of numerous expeditions carried out for many years are used and for the assessment of recurrence the data is obtained from meteorological stations. These data allow development of theoretical prognostic method. The following gradation of avalanche hazard is developed: high, medium, low and no hazard (Fig. 4). A ‘high’ hazard grade corresponds to the following criteria: the
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T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
Figure 4. Avalanche hazard zones in Georgia.
Table 1. Distribution of high, medium and low avalanche hazards Avalanche hazard
Georgia F (km2)
%
High (H)
10,700
15
Medium (M)
12,000
17
Low (L)
12,900
19
Σ (H+M+L)
35,600
51
No hazard
34,100
49
Σ
69,700
100
number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley exceeds 5 (n/L > 5), and the recurrence rate of avalanche events exceeds 10 in 10 years (ni/100 > 10). A ‘medium’ avalanche hazard is recognized in areas where the number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley is less than 5 (n/L < 5) and/or the recurrence rate of avalanche events is less than 10 in ten years (ni/100 < 10). The avalanche hazard is ‘low’ if the number of avalanche sources per one kilometre of valley is less than 1 (n/L < 1) and the recurrence rate of avalanche events is less than 1 in 10 years (n i/100 < 1). “No or very low” hazard zone is free of avalanches (no hazard). In Georgia the area prone to avalanche hazard covers 33% of the territory. Table 1 shows the distribution of high, medium and low avalanche hazard in the region.
T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
17
Figure 5. Population density map.
5. Principles of Multi-Risk Calculations for Natural Hazards: The Case of Georgia A risk index related to total economic losses was estimated for Georgia and the technique used can be applied in the future to the whole territory of the South Caucasus. Five types of hazard (earthquake, landslide, debris flow, avalanche and flash flood) were considered for the period 1980–2005. The distribution of risk index by hazard type is based on the method developed by the Columbia University group during compilation of the Map of Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots (Synthesis Report – Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, 2005). The investigated territory of Georgia was divided on a 2.5′ × 2.5′ latitudelongitude grid, with each grid considered as a unit area. According to the mentioned method, the risk assessment is based on two data sets: population (Fig. 5), and total Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per unit area (Fig. 6). For Georgia the GDP is not available for unit areas but only for sub-national units and territorial entities. There are some data that show the share in total GDP of territorial entities from the corresponding district centre. The national macro-economic parameters were calculated by the Ministry of Economical Development of Georgia in 2005. This allowed the estimation of GDP for district centre units. These estimates were applied to population densities using the description of population in 2002 as supplied by the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economical Development of Georgia. The following quantities were calculated: 1. 2.
The total economic losses, estimated from 1980–2005 for each hazard – E i. The total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the areas affected by the i-th hazard was estimated for the period 2002 – GDPi.
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T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
Figure 6. GDP density map.
3.
The regional economic loss rate Ri was computed for the i-th hazard: Ri = Ei / GDPi
4.
For each grid cell that falls into a hazard zone, the local expected economic loss was calculated: Eij = Ri * GDPj
5.
6.
7.
where GDPj is taken per unit area. As mentioned above, we applied GDP of district centre units to the map of population density. Rural areas also were not taken into account. The poverty headcounts (PH) in districts was estimated by UNDP in Georgia (Poverty mapping in Georgia. 2003). PH measures the share of the population for which consumption or income is less than the poverty line. As GDP for Georgia is applied to the population density, we decided to take into account the PH for districts multiplied the GDP of districts by the parameter (1 – PH n), where ‘n’ denote the districts. The degree of hazard was expressed, in our case, in terms of frequency for earthquakes (i.e. regional economic loss rate multiplied by hazardous event frequency Ω) and the exposed area. The accumulated economic loss in the grid cell is: Eij = Ri * Ωj * GDPj. For other natural hazards the degree of hazards was expressed instead of the frequency (as we do not have frequency for those hazards) in terms of the gradation of corresponding hazard maps, the gradations of ‘no or very low’, ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ were assigned values of 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. The resulting weighted economic loss (EL) from hazard I is:
T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
19
Figure 7. Earthquake total economic loss.
ν
Eij* = Eij * Ei / ∑ Eij , i =1
8.
where ν is the number of grid cells in the area exposed to hazard i. The economic loss – multi-hazard disaster risk index (RI) can be sum of the single-hazard economic losses (in our case for five hazard) in the grid cell: 5
RI =
∑E
* ij
.
i
The risk indices for these five hazards are expressed in deciles. The top three deciles of cells were chosen for calculation of the summary multi-hazard risk index (Figs 7–12). As mentioned above the risk index was calculated for the period 1980– 2005. (Due to the difficult political situation the risk index was not calculated for the Abkhazeti region.) It is evident that the risk index map differs considerably from the hazard maps, as it takes into consideration such additional parameters as GDP and population density.
6. Conclusions There are big discrepancies in hazard and risk assessments, in particular, for the Caucasus region in different World Disaster Maps (for example, between Global Natural Disaster Hotspots Map and the Map of Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program GSHAP and World Map of Natural Disasters of Munich Group). According to the Hotspot Map, the Southern Caucasus is prone only to hydro-meteorological hazards while
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Figure 8. Landslide total economic loss.
Figure 9. Debris flow total economic loss.
the Northern Caucasus is subject to geophysical and hydro-hazards. Geophysical hazards include earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides. If it can be accepted that the hydrohazards for the both regions are the same, the relative assessment of geophysical hazards, namely earthquakes and landslides, the calculated risk for these two parts of Caucasus is wrong. The landslide risks for both parts of Caucasus are approximately the same and the seismic activity of Southern Caucasus is larger than in the North. The
T. Chelidze et al. / Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia
21
Figure 10. Flood total economic loss.
Figure 11. Avalanche total economic loss.
sources of Hotspot Map Assessments were GSHAP maps for PGA and the database of EQ of M > 4.5 occurred in 1976–2002 from the Advanced National System EQ Catalogue. It is easy to see that the GSHAP map gives for the PGA in the North mainly in the range 0.2–0.3 g and for the South – in the range 0.2–0.4 g. The number of EQ of M > 4.5 is three times larger in Southern compared to Northern Caucasus. Besides, recurrence times of M > 4.5 EQ-s in the North and South are approximately the same.
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Figure 12. High total economic loss.
Thus it is concluded that during the compilation of the Hotspot map the input data were not analyzed correctly and the map needs serious revision in Caucasus region. Earthquake risks are much larger for the countries of South Caucasus, which contradicts the Hotspot Map assessments which states that this region is prone only to hydrological risks. These discrepancies may cause serious difficulties for investors and insurance companies. It is concluded that it is of major importance to refine hazard and risk assessments for South Caucasus using detailed local data.
References Editor: Chelidze, T., 2006–2007. ATLAS of GIS-based maps of natural disaster hazards for the Southern Caucasus (earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, avalanches and flash-floods). van Westen, C., van Asch, T. and Soeters, R., 2006 Landslide Hazard and Risk Zonation – why is it still so difficult? Bull. Eng. Geol. Env., 65; 167–184. Dilley, M., Chen, R., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lem, A., Arnold, M. et al., 2005. Natural Disasters Hotspots: a Global Risk Analysis. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/. Poverty mapping in Georgia. 2003. UNDP Country Office in Georgia. World Map of Natural Hazards. http://www.munichre.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-23
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A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests: Prediction and Prevention of Natural and Man-Made Disasters Valentin POPA a,* and Ovidiu TOMA b Forest Engineer, Executive Director – Association of Landowners “Asociaţia Obştilor Vrâncene”, Năruja, 627 220, Vrancea/Romania Tel. (+40 237)677 017; Fax (40 237)677 017 b Professor PhD., Faculty of Biology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Bd. Carol I, no. 20 A, 700505 Iasi/Romania Tel. (+40 232) 201630; Fax (+40 232) 201472; http://www.bio.uaic.ro; http://www.bio.uaic.ro/content/view/46/43/ E-mail: [email protected] a
Abstract. The sustainable management of forests is the key to preventing disasters, both natural and man-made. A healthy community activity fulfils, by means of education and responsibility, the concept of sustainable development. Keywords. Sustainable management, forest, prediction, prevention, manmade disasters
Introduction The mountain area of Vrancea County in Romania is known as being an area with a high potential for disasters. The region which represents the epicentre of the highest intensity earthquakes in Romania actually overlaps this area. The large hydrographical basins cause the collection of huge quantities of pluvial water which can lead to extensive floods in the plain areas of the county (Photo 1). The erosion phenomena are facilitated by the friable, unstable layer of stones. The distribution of the geological layers facilitates landfalls over extensive areas, followed by the shaping of temporary and unstable reservoirs. The channels are permanently affected by these landfalls and by the flash floods during the summer.
1. General Considerations Global climate changes increase the possibility of disasters in the area [1–4]. Uncontrolled deforestation of large areas may lead to instability in the forest medium, risking the safety of the people living in the surrounding communities (Photo 2 and 3). *
Corresponding Author: E-mail: [email protected]
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Photo 1. Maximal level of the floods.
Photo 2. Deforestation.
The intense downpours, with more than 110 l/m2 over a period of 2–3 hours, can cause the destruction of more than 60% of communication routes. The large volume of infiltrated water determines its penetration into the surface layer of the soil. The land-
V. Popa and O. Toma / A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests
25
Photo 3. Effects of deforestation.
falls on surfaces of 20–100 ha determine the formation on the river bed of barrages of silt slime which give birth to reservoirs of more than 300,000 m3. An earthquake having an intensity of 5–6 on the Richter scale can lead to these barrages becoming fluid and, in consequence, the outpouring of the accumulated water and affecting downstream sites. To view things even better, lightning during thunder storms can determine the emergence of a chain of fires in the woods which can by no means be controlled. The combustible materials, of which the resinous wood forms the majority, make it impossible for any terrestrial intervention whatsoever. Extreme phenomena: • • •
Earthquakes of high intensity: 1944, 1977, and 1990; Heavy rainfall: 2005 – more than 110 l/m2; 100 km of forestry roads and 40 km of public roads were damaged with more than 20 communities being isolated for several months; and Landfalls: Zabala 30 ha forming a reservoir of more than 300,000 m3; the landfall still continues: Naruja Palcau 20 ha.
2. Materials and Methods An area of more than 52,000 ha belongs to the local communities, established in associations based on an archaic organization known as “obsti”. The property form is a private and not a public one but, as a peculiarity, the form of manifestation of the property right is a common one. This form of manifestation of the property has remained unchanged for several thousands of years. There are similar forms all over the AlpineCarpathian mountain chain.
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The resistance to change made it possible for this archaic form of organization to endure. One has to know that this organization based on association does not overlap the state administrative forms of organization. The only period when the administration of the property was not possible was 1948–2001, although, a legal act of nationalization of the forestry properties was never published. During 2000–2003 some of the communities were given assistance by means of a programme initiated by the University of Auburn, Alabama, United States of America. The programme was run with the help of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and World Learning, and was intended to create a responsible attitude towards the process of restoring the forestry properties and towards the assessment of the impact it had on the sustainable management of the forests. The fact that at present there is a strong Association of Landowners called “Asociatia Obstilor Vrancene”, which stands for 14 rural communities having more than 15,000 inhabitants, is genuine proof of the high interest manifested by the beneficiaries of the programme.
3. Results and Discussions Assuming management of the forests came naturally with the principle of protecting nature for the benefit of the communities. A responsible act of respecting the principles of continuity for the vegetation of the forests, which correlated with the idea of satisfying the needs of a community development, in close connection with the idea of preserving the biodiversity, led to the development of certain connections with main actors in this field of activity. These included World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Romania, Regional Research Consortium for Environment Monitoring and Protection/Faculty of Biology – “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University from Iasi, and the Faculties of Forestry from Suceava and Brasov, all from Romania. The actions have achieved a good result by means of thematic exhibitions, by the assessment of the inventory of the natural capital, by assuming the management of the natural reservations included in “Nature 2000” network, and, finally, by obtaining the certification of the forests in accordance with the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) model. One might think about an important rupture between private property and environmental protection, considering the realities of the post-revolutionary Romania. No anomalies were registered where the training process for the landowners was developed systematically and responsibly. Whatever problems occurred was because some special areas of protection on the private properties were created without consulting the landowners and without paying them any compensation. The system of consulting and monitoring the phenomena in the relationship, private landowner-environmental protection on a national level is created only by means of the control function, without the feed-back function. The educational component was accomplished mainly with the help of the NGOs which developed short and accurate programmes. There are no programmes in schools to make children aware of the importance of preserving biodiversity, or of the relations between humankind and nature, or about the healthy cohabitation between the two. Even if Vrancea is considered a seismic area, the level of training of its inhabitants is still very low. Any potential disaster here can result in huge damage and there is no educational system in the schools to train people how to reduce the effects of possible calamities.
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Photo 4. Example of rebuilt road.
Responsible decentralisation began in 2003 when the local communities, known as “obsti”, decided they could take the management of the forestry properties in their own hands by means of forestry districts. Their five years’ existence proved to be both challenging and profitable; starting with rebuilding the whole local infrastructure, then moving on with establishing formal institutional systems and centres of culture, and ultimately assuming the responsibility for making every route accessible, in case of urgency, in the forest area. They assumed total responsibility and after two years of calamities the road system is 60% rebuilt with a particular focus on the gateways (Photo 4). The financial efforts are significant but, nonetheless, are disregarded by the authorities. The process of sustainable management moves on. Every new year comes with new goals and targets and each and every effort is directed towards carrying them out. For the next four years the educational component will play the leading part as it is considered a priority. Special programmes are to be expected in this respect, programmes which will be run by the “obşti” in close co-operation with the schools.
4. Conclusions The certification of forests and the application of the “Leader” programme are two forms of self-consciously assuming sustainable development. It is easy then for anyone to observe that we are permanently living with imminent disasters which could bring enormous damage to the rural communities. One cannot separate the continuity of the rural communities from the sustainable management of the resources and of the actions of preventing disasters. The rural community in the mountain area of Vrancea county proves that through the stability of the organisational forms and by responsibility in the sustainable man-
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agement of the properties, they are not likely to repeat the mistakes they made during 1900–1925 when, after signing generous contracts with companies of forestry operation, they caused an ecological lack of balance. The future role of the Local Action Group (LAG) – with the generic name of “The Country of Vrancea” – associated with the first forestry property certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), leads us to the conclusion of using the best actions in taking a hold of the good practices of managing in a sustainable manner the existing resources, actions which have to be correlated with models of efficiency in case of possible major natural and man-made disasters.
References [1] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Consortium Regional de Recherche Moldova – pour la Monitorisation et Protection d’Environnement – pour une meilleure gestion de la biodiversité, Conférence internationale, sous le haut patronage de Monsieur Jacques Chirac, Président de la République française, et de Monsieur Koïchiro Matsuura, Directeur général de l’UNESCO, “Biodiversite: science et gouvernance”, 2005, 1, UNESCO, Paris, France. [2] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life, the World Conference on Ecological Restoration “Ecological Restoration – A Global Challenge”, 2005, 1, Zaragoza, Spain. [3] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Recherche régionale pour la monitorisation et protection de l’environnement, gestion biodiversité, journees scientifiques “Recherche et développement durable: approches, méthodologies, stratégies d’action et de formation”, Centre de Recherches et de Transferts Technologies de l’Université Abdelhamid IBN BADIS-Chemin des CretesMostaganem, 2006, 1, Mostaganem, Algeria. [4] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Research Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions because of the prevention of natural and human ecological catastrophes, NATO Security through Science Book, IOS Press, 2007, 1, Amsterdam, Holland.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-29
29
GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings Anton ZAICENCO and Vasile ALKAZ Institute of Geology and Seismology, 2028, str. Academiei 3, Kishinev, Moldova E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been found to be very useful in seismic hazard and risk assessment studies. GIS can be used to integrate vast amounts of data geographically, take the spatial distribution of phenomena into consideration and communicate the results graphically, performing analysis of complex mathematical models. The central part of Chisinau (6.3 km2 site), capital of the Republic of Moldova, has been the case study in a project aimed at the assessment of vulnerability of buildings to seismic impact. The city is exposed to Vrancea earthquakes experiencing PGA ≅ 300 cm/s2 for recurrence interval T = 475 yr [6]. Collection, classification and digitization into ArcView GIS format of the main characteristics of the subsoil, such as mean shear wave velocity, natural period of vibration and amplification factor, compilation of database for the existing structures, as well as construction of Digital Terrain Model (DTM), were performed. The final product is the GIS database and software module for purposes of evaluation of seismic damage to buildings. The incorporation of the amplification capacity of the soil through the direct utilization of the transfer function constructed on the base of geotechnical data, allows fast assessment of scenario seismic events and mapping of parameters of the ground motion (PGA, EPA, etc.). The existence of moderate-magnitude and blast records for the studied site, as well as databases of building damage, allow validation of the accepted techniques and methodologies for ground motion and damage simulations. Keywords. Seismic damage, GIS, Vrancea earthquakes
Introduction Vulnerability of the building stock to seismic impact is determined mainly by two factors: (i) demand – in terms of structural loads expected on the given site and (ii) capacity of the structure to withstand this level of shaking with the accepted damage. Structural seismic loads are represented by the site-response spectra and their parameters, which are influenced by such factors as: seismic source mechanism, geological structure of the region, local soft soil conditions, topography, etc. The presence of the geotechnical databases, including measured shear wave velocities for the subsoil of Chisinau, allows detailed investigation of the influence of soft soils on spectral and amplitude level of free-field ground motion. The corresponding structural damage could be obtained either from correlations with the ground motion parameters, or from damage functions [3]. GIS proved to be the adequate tool for storing, processing and mapping of the spatial information [2], such playing the main core in seismic zoning studies. The extreme usefulness of GIS utilization is emphasized, which provides a powerful tool for performing spatial analysis of the data on building damage, soil parameters, seismic records, etc., which are geographical data by their nature. In GIS, mapping and
30
A. Zaicenco and V. Alkaz / GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings # S
201t/201
# S
# S
2t # S # S
# S 7g/7 7-11319
202t/202
203t/203
211t/211 210
# S # S
# S
# S
# S
210t
# S
212t 33
300
# S# S
205t/205 # S
18 # S
123t
1t
# S
301
215t # S
208t/208
# S
10
7t # S # S
6t # S
19
221t/221 # S
222t 0.8
S 225t - boring logs #
(a)
216t
# S
# S
1-k
S # S#
# S
218t/218
225t
# S
0
0.8
- Isolinies of relief
1.6 Kilometers
- lakes
Created with Arc View 3.0a Nov 1999
(b)
Figure 1. Chisinau city centre: (a) map of values of spectral amplification function at frequency 2 Hz, (b) location of 28 digitised borehole logs with geotechnical measurements.
analysis are intimately linked, combining visual display with numerical summaries [10]. 1. Geotechnical Data The necessities of accounting for peculiarities of soil conditions are recognized by numerous guidelines for seismic microzoning [11] and usually include such parameters as natural period of soil vibration, To, and amplification ratios, A, of the surface response with respect to that of the free-field motion of the outcrop. In the frame of the pilot project, 28 borehole logs with detailed geotechnical information including measured in-situ shear wave velocities vs, were digitized and introduced into GIS for the central part of Chisinau [9]. For each of the borehole log the amplification function for horizontal ground motion was constructed on the base of 1-D wave propagation model (SHAKE [5]), thus providing values of spectral amplification. Created GIS-compatible software for processing geotechnical data, allows interpolation of selected parameters for each grid point within the studied zone. In this way, maps of spectral amplification for different frequencies could be constructed (Fig. 1). In addition, maps of natural periods of soil vibration, influenced strongly by the depth to the bedrock (vs ≥ 750 m/s), were obtained using the compiled geotechnical database. The map of the bedrock surface was developed with the TIN model, which partitions a surface into a set of contiguous, non-overlapping triangles. 2. Database of Structural Damage European Macroseismic Scale EMS-92 [4] was taken as a tool for building damage classification of the compiled databases for the existing building stock in the city of Chisinau. The total amount of records was 1,870, while vulnerability class B (masonry) buildings, constituting ≈45% of the total number of structures, were chosen as the sample space that provided the most reliable information both from a spatial distribution point of view as well as structural uniformity.
A. Zaicenco and V. Alkaz / GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings
31
Figure 2. Statistics of building stock in the city (according to EMS-92 scale) with the recorded damage after August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake (magnitude Mw = 7.2).
Afterwards, the buildings with 5–6 stories were selected for the statistical analysis, these having approximately the same natural period of vibration To (To ≈ 2.5 Hz, [12] Part 1–2, Annex C) and being designed according to similar building code (base shear force coefficient: 13.5–15% for To < 0.4 s). For this type of buildings the observed damage degree after 1986 earthquake was 0–3. 3. Simulation of Ground Motion Parameters The assessment of structural damage from earthquake impact is performed on the basis of the seismic hazard assessment of the Vrancea seismic zone as well as vulnerability of the existing facilities designed according to certain building code. The expected response spectrum for the medium soil conditions is derived on the basis of the attenuation relationship of Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) from the Vrancea source for the sector containing Moldova [6], using Joyner–Boore model: ln PGA = c1 + c2 Mw + c3 ln R + c4 h + ε
(1)
where: PGA = the peak ground acceleration at the site, Mw = the moment magnitude, R = the hypo-central distance to the site, h = the focal depth, c1, c2, c3, c4 – data dependent coefficients and ε = random variable with zero mean, and standard deviation σε = σlnEPA. Normalized response spectrum shape (5% damping) compatible with Eurocode-8 format [6] is obtained on the basis of the statistical analysis of 20 components of seismic records from Moldova and neighbouring Romanian territory. The influence of local soft soil conditions is considered by direct utilization of the soil transfer function. The corresponding database of these functions is compiled for the test zone. The procedure of calculating the free-field acceleration damped response spectra, taking into account the influence of soft soil, is the following: 1.
The normalized response spectrum for the test site is multiplied by the corresponding value of the PGA from the attenuation curve, yielding a spectrum for medium soil conditions at a given hypocentral distance and defined earthquake magnitude. The calculated spectrum is scaled afterwards to obtain the spectrum on the bedrock;
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A. Zaicenco and V. Alkaz / GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings
2.
The damped response spectrum is divided by the peak factor, rsp, at a set of target frequencies ω. Thus, the σ-spectrum is obtained [7]: rs,p =
2 ⋅ ln(2n)
(2)
where: n = [-ln (p)]-1 Ωy⋅s/(2π) – average number of cycles of response motion; The power spectral density function, PSD, is derived from σ-spectrum. By this the PSD function, G(ω), compatible with damped response spectrum is received, for a given duration of the motion and assigned probability of exceedance [7]:
3.
σ a2 = G (ω n ) ⋅ ω n (
π − 1) + 4ξ
ωn
∫ G(ω )dω
(3)
0
where: ξ – structural damping; The PSD function is convolved with the transfer function of the soft soil in frequency domain, which yields PSD function of the free-field motion:
4.
Gtop(ω) = G(ω)⋅|H soil (ω)|2
(4)
σ-spectrum is derived back from PSD function and converted into a damped response spectrum:
5.
SA(ω) = σtop(ω) ⋅ rs,p(ω)
(5)
Yet, the applied procedure does not take into consideration the non-linearity of the soil behaviour. The assumption of linearity could be accepted with certain confidence for the medium hypocentral distance of Chisinau in respect to Vrancea seismic source, when no non-linear effects in soil behaviour were observed during strong earthquakes. 1000
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Figure 3. Damped elastic response spectra: simulation results and two components of real records. (a) soft soil profile with natural period T = 1.5 s; (b) soft soil profile with natural period T = 0.5 s.
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Spectral acceleration, (g's)
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Figure 4. Evaluating building seismic damage degree (capacity spectrum method).
The degree of structural damage was studied in the context of the level of ground shaking expressed in terms of effective peak accelerations, EPA, and values of response spectra, SA2Hz, for the natural period of building’s vibration 2.5 Hz (Fig. 4). Increased building response was observed in case of simulated response spectrum (intersection at point “2” in comparison with building code spectrum (point “1”) due to consideration of local soft soil conditions influence (Fig. 3a).
4. Mapping of Ground Shaking Parameters The accuracy of the applied GIS models depends strongly on the adopted interpolation methods, which should be properly chosen in connection with mapped physical parameters. Kriging interpolation method was employed, being in wide use in soil science and geology. It is an advanced interpolation procedure that generates an estimated surface from a scattered set of points with z values under hypothesis of spatial homogeneity. The digital elevation model (DEM), as well as other interpolated contours and surfaces, are created on the basis of the Kriging method. Figure 5 provides a 3-D scene generated with ArcView GIS for Chisinau city centre, which includes terrain surface, major streets, hydrographical zones and existing structures. Due to available geotechnical databases, and taking into account results of hazard assessments for the Vrancea zone, the simulation of free-field damped response spectra for scenario earthquakes was performed, resulting in mapping of shaking parameters and building damage degree, di, calculations, thus providing a vulnerability map for the constructed zone.
5. Recorded Damage and Results of Simulated Ground Motion Within the framework of the seismic risk study, the specific task of establishing the correlation between ground motion parameters and degrees of damage to the existing structures, was also investigated. This issue is tackled in the context of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-92, p. 25) [4] which implies that “while it is undeniable that the effects observed from which intensity values are deduced are a product of real
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Figure 5. Chisinau centre: 3-D scene using ArcView (view from North). Ground motion simulation.
Figure 6. Map of simulated values of response spectra at T = 0.4 s for the central part of Chisinau.
ground motion parameters, the relationship between them is complex and not amenable to simple correlations”. The correlation was investigated for such parameters of the simulated ground motion as EPA, values of response spectra SA at target frequency 2.5 Hz (Fig. 6) and damage degree of the selected structures. The better correlation with structural damage is observed for the values of spectral accelerations SA(0.4s), showing a coefficient of correlation ρ = 0.47, in comparison with the effective peak accelerations (EPA) of ρ = 0.18. Yet, the narrow range of the accelerations within the studied zone, depending on differences of soft soil thickness,
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Damage = 1.2263Ln[SA(0.4s)] - 5.5746
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Figure 7. Bedrock PGA = 0.1 g at test site. Simulation results: damage degree (126 buildings) vs. values of response spectra SA (cm/s2) at T = 0.4 s.
does not allow the more detailed investigation into correlation of structural damage and parameters of ground motion. Also, the non-homogeneity of masonry structures within the test site in terms of quality of materials and methods of construction makes a contribution to the larger scatter of the degree of seismic damage.
6. Conclusion The usefulness of GIS for seismic damage assessment studies is emphasized due to its capacity to store, process and visualize spatial information. The following databases have already been compiled for the test site: geotechnical, building stock, records of blasts, microseisms and strong motion. GIS, which is capable of providing a powerful tool for the analysis of geographically distributed data, was used as a core instrument in the research work. The technique for structural damage assessment has been worked out and tested. Results of the simulated ground motion parameters are compared with the observed damage degrees of buildings, which are better described by values of spectral accelerations SA at target frequencies than effective accelerations EPA.
Acknowledgments All the data were kindly provided by Institute of Geology and Seismology, Moldavian Academy of Sciences, which monitors seismic activity of the Vrancea zone in the territory of the Republic of Moldova and concentrates information related to seismic hazard and risk. The material presented in this paper is the result of the joint research based on collaboration between several institutions, performed in the context of the seismic microzoning of Chisinau.
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References [1] Alkaz, V. and Zaicenco, A., (1999). Spatial Correlation Between Level of Water Table and Damage of Buildings After 1986 Vrancea Earthquake in Kishinev using GIS, DACH-Tagung Conference, Berlin, Nov 24-25. pp. 19-25. [2] Andy Mitchell, (1999). The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis. Volume 1: Geographic Patterns & Relationships. ESRI Press, Redlands, California [3] Charles A. Kircher, Aladdin A. Nassar, Onder Kustu and William T. Holmes, (1997). Development of Building Damage Functions for Earthquake Loss Estimation, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 13, November 4, p. 663. [4] Grunthal, G., et al. (1993). European Macroseismic Scale 1992. [5] Idriss, I.M. and Sun, J.I., (1992). User’s Manual for SHAKE91, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis. [6] Lungu, D., Cornea, T., Aldea, A. and Zaicenco A., (1997). Basic representation of seismic action. In: Design of structures in seismic zones: Eurocode 8 – Worked examples. TEMPUS PHARE CM Project 01198: Implementing of structural Eurocodes in Romanian civil engineering standards. Edited by D. Lungu, F. Mazzolani and S. Savidis. Bridgeman Ltd., Timisoara, p. 1-60. [7] Vanmarcke, E.H., (1974). Structural Response to Earthquakes, MIT, Cambridge, Mass., USA. [8] Vucetic, M., Doroudian, M. and Martin, G.R., (1998). Development of Geotechnical Data Base of Southern California for Seismic Microzonation, 3rd Annual Caltrans Seismic Research Workshop, Sacramento. [9] Zaicenco, A. and Alkaz, V., (2000). Development of 3-D Geotechnical GIS-oriented Database for Seismic Microzonation Studies. Proceedings of the 3rd Japan–Turkey Workshop on EQ engineering, Istanbul, Feb. 21-25, pp. 159-165. [10] ArcView Spatial Analyst and ArcView 3D Analyst, (1996-97). Manuals for utilization of ArcView GIS software, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). [11] Guidelines for Seismic Microzonation Studies, (1995). AFPS. [12] EUROCODE 8. Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-37
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Actuarial Risk Management Through Geological Risk-Geoinformation Systems (RiskGIS) T. RUDOLPH De Perponcherstraat 79, 2518 SP Den Haag, The Netherlands [email protected]
Abstract. Actuarial geo-information systems are mainly used for the spatial analysis of surface data sets. But geological, hydrogeological as well as hydrological aspects should be considered in the calculation of premiums in the insurance industry. A first deployment method for these geo-scientific subsurface information is shown in this paper. Keywords. Insurance, Geo-information systems, GIS, Geology, Hydrogeology, Hydrology
Introduction The application of geo-information systems for geological, hydrological and hydrogeological aspects in risk management is a further development of the geographical underwriting of the insurance industry. The knowledge of the geology, hydrology and hydrogeology is fundamental for the understanding and spatial analysis of an insured object before and during loss-events, for example with contamination of the aquifer. Furthermore possible loss scenarios could be prevented or minimized if the subsurface geology and hydrogeology is already known and integrated in the initial insurance appraisal. The modelling and classification of the geo-scientific knowledge also enables the definition of Action Zones, which allow a better appraisal and assessment of the insurable objects. This leads to an optimized and transparent premium calculation for both the insurer and the policyholder. The visualization of the geo-scientific subsurface information in geo-information systems is simple and economically feasible, it is quick to analyze, it can be combined with additional information and gives important insights into the subsurface structures.
1. Set-Up of a Risk-Geoinformation System A Risk-Geoinformation system (RiskGIS) contains a digital geo-information system which is populated with geographical, geological, hydrological and hydrogeological datasets. With the combination of these datasets specific actuarial conclusions can be derived. In this paper the tool ArcGIS 9.1, ESRI, was used with the extensions of the Spatial Analyst and 3D Analyst.
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1.1. Data Fundamentals For a RiskGIS exercise is it important to first complete preliminary work such as a review of the existing datasets. Datasets about topography, geography as well as geology, hydrology and hydrogeology have to be obtained and digitized to get imported to the RiskGIS. A quality control on these datasets should be applied and, if needed, the dataset versions should be updated. But it is also considered that historical and old datasets contain important useful information. The distribution of these datasets is carried out by local, state and governmental authorities and other technical authorities as well as by private facilities [2,14]. Private important datasets are, for example, subsurface reports. Important datasets which should be used are [4,11]: • • • • • • • • •
Basic information like topographical maps, satellite and aerial pictures, coordinate systems and altitude information; Recent and historical wells for subsurface investigations, groundwater wells and other exploration wells; Hydrological information about rivers and lakes with flow direction, flow rates, protected areas along water works and water catchment areas; Hydrogeological information about groundwater, groundwater contours, groundwater flow directions, flow rates; Geological-hydrogeological information like rock- and sediment-formations, lithologies, porosities, permeabilities and soil retention; Topographic information about important traffic and transportation routes (roads, railroads and waterways); Residential areas with important buildings, land use and important object information like storage tanks, bonding depth of buildings in the groundwater; Vulnerability maps with contaminated areas; and Maps with possible subsurface background contamination.
For the usage of wells it is important to consider that the well itself does not provide only information about the subsurface geology and hydrogeology but the position of the well also shows possible contamination of the subsurface structure. As an example reference can be made to the explosion of the oil depot in Bruncefield, Great Britain on December 11, 2005 where infiltrating hydrocarbons along non-abandoned wells contaminated the aquifers [9]. For the initial interpretation of objects, different resolutions could be applied; the coarser the resolution of a model the coarser is the conclusion. Thus, for a small-scale area, where distances of less than a few metres can decide between a loss-event and non loss-event, preferably fine scales should be used [13]. Therefore, small-scale as well as large scale topographical maps should be used in the RiskGIS. With fewer work-steps, information about altitude and slope dipping is deducible from these maps. Simultaneously these topographical maps give insights in the surrounding area like nature reserves or water protected areas, which are possibly not visible during the initial site inspection of the object but are relevant during a loss event. Additional to this basic information more detailed information, like pipe and cable plans, should be used. Along these pipes and cables routes exist high ground permeabilities and pathways which enable contamination of the groundwater. These pipes and cables have also an influence on operations to minimize damage.
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Figure 1. Map of the model.
Only with hydrological and hydrogeological datasets is it possible to appraise uncertainties in the subsurface, because this information also minimizes the loss scenarios and contamination. The geological subsurface information could be used in the classical way as for a geological map. Sometimes geological maps in higher resolution are also available and additional geological special maps like Hydrological Maps or Engineering Maps give important insights. But independent from the scale, geological maps only give information about the geology at the surface. However, datasets about the subsurface are important to understand the extension and connectivity of geological factors. This information must be gathered with geological cross-sections, wells or with special maps. Additional information of subsurface models could be implemented in the RiskGIS by special interfaces with subsurface models [15]. Overall the subsurface data must be principally combined, summarized and simplified depending on the desired conclusion. An additional perspective and/or three-dimensional visualizations of the datasets simplify the overview and therefore the interpretation. 1.2. Model of the RiskGIS To show the functionality of a RiskGIS for an actuarial risk management the model of Coldewey and Schütz [5] was used, improved and enhanced. The presented model, with its visualizations and workflows, are idealistic and the points of interest used are imaginary. In a first step topographic information, including an altitude model, is displayed on a map (Fig. 1). For a better visualization of the possibilities of a RiskGIS two example scenarios (or, points of interest) are integrated in the model, which are, on the one hand, a single object in quadrant A2 and, on the other hand, cumulated objects in quadrant C4. The visualization was chosen this way for different reasons, namely the single object could be a moving object like a vehicle on the street or a fixed object like a gas station or a building with an oil tank in the cellar. An example could be a truck with dangerous goods and materials which has an accident [16]. For additional loss scenarios with dangerous goods reference is made to the Transport-Accident-Information and SupportSystem (Transport-Unfall-Informations- und Hilfeleistungs-System TUIS) of the Asso-
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Figure 2. Map of the model with geological, hydrological and hydrogeological information for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
ciation of the Chemical Industry and the Ministry of the Interior [17]. The cumulative objects are an accumulation of buildings on an industrial site close to two rivers. As an example the loss scenario of Sandoz in 1986 is mentioned where fire water, which was polluted with mercury and phosphoric pesticides, flowed into the Rhine, and caused severe pollution of the river water. To show the overall sensitivity of the system more realistic and significant supplemental environmental parameters are added. Therefore, in the vicinity of the single object in the quadrant A2 a water works with active wells is located. Along the course of the river are located residential areas and further downstream agricultural areas and nature-protected areas. In a second step for the RiskGIS the geological and hydrogeological datasets have to be incorporated (Fig. 2). Furthermore, by the interpolation of point data like groundwater measurements groundwater, contours must be generated. The groundwater flow direction, which is perpendicular to the contours, could also be developed, plotted as arrows on the contours and used to describe the flow of the pollutants. For the overview in the model area these arrows are not displayed but the general groundwater flow is to the southwest. On the basis of the surface understanding, subsurface information could be extracted from the geological map or, like in this case, from the wells to create geological maps for deeper structures (Fig. 2) as well as a hydrogeological cross-section (Fig. 3). Through a comparison of the surface geology with the subsurface geology a change is visible. The reason for this is that the model area represents a river valley where, especially at the surface, recent river deposits are located and which are completely different from the deeper subsurface geology. The next interpretation step is the generation of the map with distances between the aquifer and surface (Fig. 4). The shorter the distances between the aquifer and the surface, the quicker the possible contamination of the groundwater. The map shows that in this model the distances are in the most cases less than three metres. In the quadrant B2 an increase of the distance is visible due to active producing groundwater wells with a drawdown of the groundwater table. To show the impact of the distance of the aquifer and the surface, additional parameters have to be incorporated in the model. By using the permeability it is possible to understand the rate of contamination of the underground regime whose permeability
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Figure 3. Hydrogeological Cross-Section of the model.
Figure 4. Map of the distances between the aquifer and the surface (Classification after [3]).
is a measure of the ability of rocks and sediments to transmit (ground)-water [8]. The lower the permeability value the lower the propagation velocity of substances in the underground. Typical permeabilities are shown in Table 1. Based on DIN 18130-1 a classification of permeability values is possible (Table 2) [6]. These permeabilities will be allocated to the geological units of the geological map and in a second step using the DIN 18130-1 classification are coloured in five classes and plotted as an additional map (Fig. 5). The permeability values in the active riverbed are very low and in the old riverbed very high because of the depositional history of the rivers. The comparison of both maps shows clearly the more homogenous and permeable sediments at a depth more than two metres. Additional analysis of the deeper geological situation, using the (hydro-) geological cross-section, shows possible high permeable rocks and sediments with permeabilities of kf = 10–4 m/s to kf = 10–5 m/s (Fig. 3). On this basis of classification of permeabilities, Zones of Exposure could be identified. In the already mentioned example of the Sandoz loss scenario, the distance to the Rhine was only a couple of
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Table 1. Permeability (Durchlässigkeitsbeiwerte) kf [8]
Table 2. Classification of Permeabilities (Durchlässigkeitsbeiwert kf) in five classes (DIN 18130-1) and colour code
Figure 5. Permeabilities for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
hundred metres. To validate the Zones of Exposure the established classification of the protected zones for water works, which show the sedimentary aquifers, the following, are the recommended values [7]: • • •
Protected zone I: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be two to one kilometres; Protected zone II: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be 50 days (retention period) and not less than 100 metres; and Protected zone III: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be more than 20 metres.
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Figure 6. Model with the Zones of Exposure.
The classification of the buffers along the rivers should also incorporate local parameters like width, depth of rivers and flow velocity, as well as usage of the water for water supply. Therefore the size of the buffer zones vary. In the model buffers with a width of 50 m, 150 m and 500 m are used which result in three Zones of Exposure (Fig. 6): • • •
Zone of Exposure I with a width of 100 m; Zone of Exposure II with a width of 500 m; and Zone of Exposure III with a width of 1,000 m.
In the presented model the protected zones for water works are similar to the Zones of Exposure. The final step of the workflow to define Action Zones is the spatial analysis of the permeability classes with the distances of the aquifer from the surface and with the Zones of Exposure. For this all the different classes are combined and multiplied. The possible 75 combinations are sorted and ordered in Action Zones (Table 3). An Action Zone is defined in this model as a zone where an action/workflow has to take place because of the geological, hydrological and hydrological situation. On this basis five Action Zones plus one are established: • • • • • •
Action Zone A (Combination 1 to combination 43); Action Zone B (Combination 44 to combination 63); Action Zone C (Combination 64 to combination 70); Action Zone D (Combination 71 to combination 74); Action Zone E (Combination 75); and Action Zone F.
The generation of these Action Zones is effected using the Rastercalculator in the RiskGIS by multiplying the values of the different maps. Therefore a very high permeability soil with a small distance between groundwater and surface in the Zone of Exposure I results in Action Zone A. The Action Zone F is established for areas where no area-wide information coverage exists for permeability values, aquifer surface distances or Zones of Exposure. On basis of the two permeability maps, the spatial distribution of the Action Zones are visualized for the different depths (Fig. 7).
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Table 3. Part of the decision tree as a spatial analysis of the permeability classes, distance between the aquifer and surface and the Zones of Exposure
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Figure 7. Action Zones for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
Table 4. Description of the premium levels for insurances on basis of the Action Zones
For a better visualization, Action Zone B for the nature reserve is assigned to the quadrants A5 to C5. During the visualization of the Action Zones, information about a depth trend has also to be acquired so as to understand the change of an Action Zone with depth. In the model the shaded zone along the river displays an increase of the action zone from A to B caused by the increase of permeability values with depth (Fig. 5). Table 4 with the six Action Zones is a further development after MELCHERS, C.,
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Figure 8. Screenshot of ArcSCENE with a perspective view on the model.
GÖBEL, P. & SCHÄFER [10]. The table shows in the second column the action that is needed to prevent contamination being dispersed. Together with the first column it clearly indicates also the timing of required actions. The last column highlights the implications for insurances and the impact on the calculation of the premiums.
2. Interpretation of the Data For a summarized interpretation of the data it is useful to display the model in a perspective, or three-dimensional, view because the spatial relationship of the datasets is more apparent. In this case the visualization tool ArcSCENE is recommended (Fig. 8). All the layers of the RiskGIS are displayed as separate layer stacks: • • • •
First layer: Second layer: Third layer: Fourth layer:
Hydrology and the groundwater contours; Topography; Action Zones for a depth between 0 m and 2 m; and Action Zones for a depth between 2 m and 5 m.
The spatial junctions, especially of the hydrological and hydrogeological datasets with the geological datasets of the deeper subsurface, result in important information which, if separately analyzed, is not obvious. An example is the depth trend and the change of the Action Zone in the riverbed with an increase of permeability. Another example is the analysis of the industrial areas in the vicinity of the two rivers. Often industrial areas are built in the river plains because only there are enough and wide areas available. But the possible interaction of the industrial area with the river and the influence to the subsurface are often not considered. Therefore, pollutants infiltrate the subsurface structure easily during loss-events because of the high permeability. The need for action increases if the pollutants infiltrate deeper structures because the permeability values there are even higher. Furthermore, an analysis of the slopes of the elevation model shows that the pollutants during a loss-event run off the surface into the river, which will then be transported towards the nature reserve. The example of the loss scenario in the Northwest of the model is an object, which is lying on the edge of an Action Zone. Only with a spatial analysis of the position of the object it is
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possible to detect in the vicinity an active water works and a river (Fig. 2). The increased exposure will be visible only by the interpretation of the two geological maps. These maps show a minimum five metre thickness of coarse sands which are highly permeable. During loss-events contamination infiltrates the subsurface structure and is transported with the aquifer because the distance between aquifer and surface is also only between 1.5 m and 3 m (Fig. 5). Already the combination of these parameters would result in an Action Zone B. Overall the increase in Action Zones shows clearly the increased need to prevent the dispersion of contamination and the bigger impact on the calculation of insurance premiums. The presented RiskGIS, and the presented model with examples of possible loss scenarios, show how spatial workflows can generate new and important information which have an impact on the assessment of objects. This information reduces the consequences and expenditure on loss scenarios and therefore has an impact on the premium calculation. The installation of safety systems and control mechanisms, like adequate collecting systems for tanks, reduces even more the risk and therefore the premium. On the other hand, an extreme case leads to a non-insurable object.
3. Conclusions Recent investigations by the author have shown that no Risk-Geoinformation systems are available which work with geological, hydrological and hydrogeological datasets and are used by insurance companies to assess insurable objects and loss scenarios [1]. The presented RiskGIS is a further development of a normal Geoinformation system and Geoscience Based Fire Decision Systems (Geobasierte FeuerwehrEntscheidungshilfe-Systeme). The presented RiskGIS is even more enhanced by keeping the compatibility with other GIS tools. Although the workflow of the RiskGIS is not described in detail it is possible to implement the general set-up in other systems. Important for the setting-up of a RiskGIS is the collection of the necessary geological, hydrological and hydrogeological information. As presented, different ways and opportunities could be used. Only with the overall knowledge of the geology, hydrology and hydrogeology it is possible to understand the subsurface structures and how the subsurface is linked to the surface. All these datasets are generally available area-wide in urban areas. Often additional information is where a very detailed scale is accessible. The datasets have to be combined with the RiskGIS and must be interpreted for the actuarial problem. The disadvantage of the non-availability of these datasets, especially in rural areas, should be compensated through a spatial analysis of the existing datasets with a combination of the information from an initial site inspection. But already the analysis of the existing datasets is an essential work-step before the site inspection to address possible problems. The combination of the knowledge of the site inspection with the RiskGIS shows the exposure and the necessity for an action during a loss-event. After the initial investment to build a RiskGIS, this system is cheap and could easily be improved as well as enhanced by incorporating new and additional datasets. In summary, the setting-up of a RiskGIS and an initial assessment are much cheaper than the expenditure for a loss-scenario. Even if a loss-scenario occurs is it possible with an updated RiskGIS to assess quickly the subsurface structures and define feasible decontamination methods and procedures. Therefore, the opportunity for
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risk management with a RiskGIS tool provides insurers and policyholders with an optimized, economical tool.
References [1] BUSINESS GEOMATICS (2007): Ökologischer Schaden – SPACE analysiert das ortsabhängige Risiko für Umweltschäden. – [online in the Internet: http://www.business-geomatics.com/archiv/507/ 42.html, Status October 9, 2007]. [2] COLDEWEY, W.G. (1993): Archivmaterial. – In: Weber, H.H. & Neumaier, H. [Hrsg.]: “Altlasten. Erkennen, Bewerten, Sanieren”, 2. Aufl., S. 44–73, Berlin (Springer). [3] COLDEWEY, W.G. & GÖBEL, P. (2001): Hydrogeologisches Geländepraktikum [“Hydrogeologische Kartierung”]. – 38 S., 6 Abb., 6 Tab.; [unveröffentlicht]. [4] COLDEWEY, W.G. & KRAHN, L. (1991): Leitfaden zur Grundwasseruntersuchung im Festgestein bei Altablagerungen und Altstandorten. – 124 S., 34 Abb., Anh.; Düsseldorf. [5] COLDEWEY, W.G. & SCHÜTZ, H.G. (1990): Untersuchungen der hydrogeologischen und hydrochemischen Verhältnisse kontaminierter Standorte.- Müll und Abfall, 1, 12 S., 10 Abb.; Berlin (ESV). [6] DIN 18130-1 (1998): Baugrund; Untersuchung von Bodenproben; Bestimmung des Wasserdurchlässigkeitsbeiwertes – Teil 1: Laborversuche. Berlin (Beuth). [7] DVGW ARBEITSBLATT W101 (2006): Richtlinien für Trinkwasserschutzgebiete; Teil I: Schutzgebiete für Grundwasser. – Bonn (Eschborn). [8] HÖLTING, B. & COLDEWEY, W.G. (2005): Hydrogeologie – Einführung in die Allgemeine und Angewandte Hydrogeologie. – 326 S., 118 Abb., 68 Tab.; München (Elsevier). [9] KASTL U. (2006): Verheerende Explosion in einem Öldepot. – MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2006): Schadenspiegel 2/2006 – Themenheft Risiko Feuer. – 49,2, 2-5., 3 Abb.; München. [10] MELCHERS, C., GÖBEL, P. & SCHÄFER (2003): Entwicklung eines Konzeptes zur Bewertung der Umweltgefährdung während des Feuerwehreinsatzes aus hydrologischer Sicht. – VFDB; 3, 143-148, 5 Abb.; Stuttgart (Kohlhammer). [11] MELCHERS, C., RUDOLPH, T. & COLDEWEY, W.G. (2005): Geologische Aspekte der angewandten Risikobewertung. – Münster. Forsch. Geol. Paläont.; 100, 8 S., 7 Abb.; Münster. [12] MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2002): Topics 2002. – 49 S., 33 Abb.; München. [13] MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2003): Topics geo 2002. – 53 S., 33 Abb.; München. [14] PÄLCHEN, W. (2006): Bei der Geologie gespart?. – Geowissenschaftliche Mitteilungen; 25, 20-21; Bonn. [15] RUDOLPH, T., ELFERS, H., JUCH, D., LINDER, B. & THOMSEN A. (2006): Untergrundmodelle in Nordrhein-Westfalen – Möglichkeiten der Zusammenführung unterschiedlicher Modellansätze. – Schriftenreihe der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geowissenschaften (SDGG) [Hrsg.]: GeoBerlin 2006 158. Jahrestagung der DGG, 50: 61; Hannover. [16] WESTFÄLISCHE NACHRICHTEN (2007): Gefahrgut-Transporter brennt – Großeinsatz der Feuerwehr – A2 bei Essen stundenlang gesperrt. – Newspaper article of April 30, 2007. [17] VCI (2007): Transport-Unfall-Informations- und Hilfeleistungssystem (TUIS). – [Online im Internet: http://www.vci.de/TUIS/default2~cmd~shr~docnr~114675~nd~~rub~ 741~ond~tuis~c~0.htm, Status August 21, 2007].
Theme 2 Water-Based Hazards/Risks
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-51
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Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection Plamen GRAMATIKOV * The Neofit Rilski South-West State University, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
Abstract. Fresh water resources of Bulgaria and water management in the country are estimated and compared with other countries. The government policy, and organizational structure of the network for flood monitoring, forecasting and warning are presented in this paper, as are the types of activities and divisions of work with neighbouring countries in the framework of trans-border cooperation in this area of the Balkans. Keywords. Fresh water resources, organizational structure, flood monitoring and forecasting
Introduction The big security issues of 21st century are energy, water and climate. New security challenges require new approaches. World water resources are very important because all living creatures depend on them. The world ocean covers 74% of the Earth and saline and mineral waters are about 97.5% of all water reserves. The potential resources of fresh water, excluding glacial water, are 4.2 million km3 or 0.3% of all hydrosphere reserves. There is no living creature or plant that can live without water. Water constitutes 14–16% of the seeds’ content and up to 90–95% of the fruits’ content. Almost 2/3 of the human body consists of water and we need about 2 litres of water intake daily. One litre is supplied by drinking liquids and another one is supplied by food. The great importance of water is connected with its amazing properties, which are not typical of other substances. Water is eternal because it is constantly renewed by water circumrotating and it is the only substance that has the three aggregate conditions – liquid, solid and vapour. Besides, it is a universal solvent – depending on temperature, pressure and other factors, it can dissolve almost all chemical elements. Throughout history water has confronted humanity with some of its greatest challenges. Water is a source of life and a natural resource that sustains our environments and supports livelihoods – but it is also a source of risk and vulnerability. In the early 21st Century, prospects for human development are threatened by a deepening global water crisis. In a world of unprecedented wealth, almost 2 million children die each year for want of a glass of clean water and adequate sanitation. And water-borne infectious diseases are holding back poverty reduction and economic growth in some of the world’s poorest countries. *
Correponding Author: Department of Physics, South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 66 Ivan Mihailov Blvd., 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria; E-mail: [email protected]
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Figure 1. Projected Water Scarcity in 2025.
A clean and safe source of drinking water is regarded by the United Nations as a fundamental human right. Many European countries depend on groundwater for drinking water supplies. As this water becomes increasingly polluted, they are faced with two options: − −
Develop increasingly complex and expensive methods of cleaning the water, or Risk the consequences to human health of drinking polluted water.
Groundwater pollution is, of course, also of concern in environmental terms. Most of the groundwater participates in the hydrological cycle although the residence time may vary from months to centuries. On the other hand natural disasters including floods were always part of the environment and humans were combating them. The ability of human race to successfully mitigate them is a criterion for its development.
1. Integrated Water Resources Development and Management 1.1. Global Water Shortage in the New Century About 80 countries now have water shortages that threaten health and economies while 40% of the world (more than 2 billion people) has no access to clean water or sanitation (Fig. 1). In this context, we cannot expect water conflicts to always be amenably resolved by the European environmental standards. More than a dozen nations receive most of their water from rivers that cross borders of neighbouring up-stream countries which are often viewed as hostile. These include Botswana, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Congo, Gambia, Sudan and Syria, all of whom receive 75% or more of their fresh water from the river flow from such neighbours. In
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Figure 2. Population Lacking Access to Improved Water Sources (percentage of population). Source: World Health Organization and UNICEF, Meeting the MDG Drinking Water and Sanitation Target, and Millennium Project estimate.
the Middle East, a region marked by hostility between nations, obtaining adequate water supplies is a high political priority. For example, water has been a contentious issue in recent negotiations between Israel and Syria. In recent years, Iraq, Syria and Turkey have exchanged verbal threats over their use of shared rivers. Almost 14% of the European Union (EU) population has been affected by water scarcity. Over 80% of the original floodplain area along the Danube and its main tributaries has been lost as a result of dams, pollution, and climate change. The Belgian government recognizes water as a human right, and its development aid will focus on water. Water utilities in Germany pay farmers to switch to organic operations because it costs less than removing farm chemicals from water supplies. Global water problems are attracting increasing attention. A prime cause of the global water concern is the ever-increasing world population. As populations grow, industrial, agricultural and individual water demands escalate. World-wide demand for water is doubling every 21 years, more in some regions. Water supply cannot remotely keep pace with demand, as populations soar and cities explode (Fig. 2). Population growth alone does not account for increased water demand. Since 1900, there has been a six-fold increase in water use for only a two-fold increase in population size. This reflects greater water usage associated with rising standards of living (e.g., diets containing less grain and more meat). It also reflects potentially unsustainable levels of irrigated agriculture. World population has recently reached six billion and United Nation’s projections indicate nine billion by 2050. Meanwhile many countries suffer accelerating desertification. Water quality is deteriorating in many areas of the developing world as population increases and salinity caused by industrial farming and over-extraction rises. About 95% of the world’s cities still dump raw sewage into their waters. 1.2. Water Exploitation Index Over the last 10–15 years the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) decreased in 18 European countries, representing a considerable decrease in total water abstraction (about 9% of total abstractions corresponding to 23,081 million cubic metres decrease of water) [1].
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Figure 3. Water exploitation index. Total water abstraction per year as percentage of long-term freshwater resources in 1990 and 2002. Data source: EEA-ETC/WTR based on data from Eurostat data tables: Renewable water resources (million m3/year), LTAA & annual water abstraction by source and by sector (million m3/year) – Total freshwater abstraction (surface + groundwater).
The warning threshold for the water exploitation index (WEI), which distinguishes a non-stressed from a stressed region, is around 20% (Fig. 3). Severe water stress can occur where the WEI exceeds 40%, indicating unsustainable water use. But nearly 44% of Europe’s population still lives in water-stressed countries (approx. 255 million inhabitants). In Europe there are eight countries that can be considered water-stressed based on the Eurostat data available for the period 1997–2005 (Germany, Cyprus, Spain, Bulgaria, Italy, UK, Malta and the FYROM), representing about 44% or almost half of Europe’s population. Based on the 2005 available data Cyprus (60%) and Bulgaria (> 35%) have the highest WEI. However, it is necessary to take into account the high water abstraction for non-consumptive uses (cooling water) in Germany, England and Wales, Bulgaria and Belgium. Most of the water abstracted in the remaining four wa-
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ter-stressed countries (Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Malta) is for consumptive uses (especially irrigation) and there is therefore higher pressure on water resources in these four countries. The WEI decreased in 18 countries over the last 10–15 years, representing a decrease of about 9% in total water abstraction (in absolute number there is a 23 km 3 of abstracted water reduction as compared to the 268 km3 total abstraction in 1990). Most of the decrease occurred in the new EU Member States as a result of the decline in abstraction in most economic sectors. This trend was the result of institutional and economic changes. However, seven countries (The Netherlands, the UK, Greece, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey) increased their WEI during the period 1990 to 2005 because of the increase in total water abstraction. The WEI has also increased in Cyprus from 1998 to 2005 (lack of data do not allow comparison to the pre-1997 period). 1.3. Bulgarian Water Strategy and Policy Environmental policy in Bulgaria has evolved with overall political and economic changes in the last 17 years. The Strategy and the Environmental Action Plan for the period up to 2000 introduced new approaches to environmental management and set Bulgarian environment policy on track with modern environmental policy-making – addressing environmental issues in their inter-sectoral complexity, thus providing the initial framework for integrating environmental, economic and social issues as a basis for the country’s sustainable development. Particularly intensive in terms of legislative changes and new policy implementation was the period after 1997 when Bulgaria signed an association agreement with the European Union (EU) thus formally undertaking an obligation to meet European environmental standards. This process continues after the acceptance of Bulgaria as a member of the European Union (EU) at the beginning of 2007. In 1997 the Government adopted a Strategy for Integrated Water Management in the Republic of Bulgaria [2]. This document identifies the main objectives towards achieving sustainable water management: − −
meeting different water-use needs (drinking water supply, recreation, industrial and agricultural use) while conserving water resources; protecting the environment and the aquatic ecosystems; limiting potential impacts of floods and drought.
The Strategy also takes into account new challenges arising from market economy development. It introduces the approach of a government regulated water-use balance as a way of ensuring the social function of water supply and the protection of the environment. The Strategy identifies economic aspects of water use and water management structures and mechanisms to be established. Recognising the new stage of environmental policy development the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW) initiated the elaboration of a National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006. The strategy prepared with the valuable contribution of Bulgarian governmental institutions, scientific organisations, nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) and societies and with international support was approved by the Government on 31 May 2001 [3]. This strategic document has a primary focus on end results, i.e. on activities and measures for practical implementation
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of existing legislation with the aim to improve the quality of life and to protect the environment. The strategic objectives for the country for this period go beyond mere environmental concerns and integrate sustainable development considerations in two aspects: 1.
2.
Preserving and expanding the large clean territories in the country and protecting Bulgaria’s rich nature in conditions of economic growth and improved social welfare; Overcoming existing local environmental problems, thus improving quality of life.
In line with overall environment and economic policy development, water management priorities have also been set. A few years ago a working group chaired by the MoEW, and including representatives of other organisations, was set up to draft a National Strategy for Water Management and Development [4]. The new strategy will also reflect international commitments, particularly those related to EU accession and the trans-boundary water management implications it has. The strategy will identify measures and mechanisms for adequate water supply to all citizens and other users in the country while guaranteeing social acceptability of water services and integrating other sector priorities set out in strategic documents such as national economic and regional development plans, district and municipal social-economic development strategies, municipal programmes, etc. 1.4. Legislation Based on the key issues and priority actions of the National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006, the Environmental Protection Act (EPA) of 2002 [5] provides a comprehensive legal framework for environmental policy. It ensures a common approach in all environmental sectors and at the same time provides a basis for integration of environment into other policy sectors. The EPA also provides for wider opportunities for public involvement in decision-making and policy implementation. While the EPA provides the framework for environmental policy, sectoral legislation (laws and regulations) details the particular requirements, and specifies enforcement and control mechanisms, and deadlines. Sectoral legislation ensures that EU accession related commitments and other international obligations are observed. At the same time it gives stakeholders clear guidance on compliance with particular requirements as well as establishing mechanisms for public participation in the decisionmaking process. The general principles of the EU policy in the water sector are introduced in the national legislation through the Water Act [6]. The Water Act introduces the principle of integrated water management on the basis of river basins. The development of river basin management plans, and programmes for water bodies’ pollution reduction and elimination, is regulated. The main rules for the operation of the national water monitoring system are specified. Internal monitoring combined with periodical inspections by the state institutions is projected for the big enterprises. A permitting regime for water use and use of water bodies is introduced, including discharges of wastewater from urban collection systems as main tools for regulating water resources use and protection of water from pollution.
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Figure 4. Organisational structure of Bulgarian MSPDA.
2. Crises Protection Organisation 2.1. Management of Crises Prevention and Protection in Bulgaria The Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents (MSPDA) unites the existing agencies responsible for prevention, response, management and recovery in case of crises (Fig. 4). The main aim of MSPDA is to establish a working and efficient, suitably technologically and materially equipped integrated system for the prevention, preparation, response and recovery in case of crises, meeting the real needs of Bulgarian citizens in such cases. The MSPDA policy will aim to establish a unified model for action in emergency situations, efficient crisis management communication, strengthening transparency of the administration work in crisis management. The Ministry’s policy aims to enhance the skills and improve the training of state bodies, legal entities and citizens in the country in these situations. The MSPDA along with the Ministry of Education and Science takes actions to improve the training at secondary schools and universities in the field of civil protection. Along with insurance companies, they work out policies for the prevention and improvement of the population’s insurance culture. The Ministry will also introduce standards for preparation for crises-specific criteria that all public administrations will have to meet. The state policy concerning disasters and emergencies is implemented both with funds allocated under the state budget of the Republic of Bulgaria and funds under the
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PHARE Programme and international donor organisations working in the field of civil crisis management. One of the major priorities of the MSPDA is to ensure preparedness of the population for actions in the event of disasters and accidents. In the aftermath of the floods that hit the country two years ago some heavy problems came to the surface, the poor preparedness of the population to act in response to emergencies being one of them. And it is namely the prompt and adequate conduct in crisis situations that is the major prerequisite for saving the life of people, as well as for reducing material losses. The National Training Centre Directorate has prioritised for the time being the preparation of management bodies responsible for the population protection against disasters and accidents on a local level. The Directorate, together with the Civil Protection National Service Directorate General, developed a training programme for district governors, deputy district governors and mayors of municipalities and districts in Bulgaria. The topic of the training course is “Strengthening the Management Capacity of District Governors, Deputy District Governors and Mayors of Municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria to Carry out Events Concerning Population Protection and Protection of the National Economy in the event of Disasters and Accidents”. The objectives of the training programme are to improve the quality of the work of local and municipal management bodies in the event of disasters and accidents concerning the duly and prompt decisions with a view to population protection and protection of the national economy; to enhance the theoretical and practical preparedness on planning, organisation, management, governance and monitoring of activities related to the protection and elimination of the consequences in the occurrence of disasters and accidents. The National Training Centre Directorate, in cooperation with the Ministry of Education and Science, has drawn up several projects in implementation of the policy and priorities of the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents regarding the training and preparation of the population within the system of education and science. A team of experts and specialists is particularly working on: • • • • • •
Developing a syllabus and timetable of a training course in response to disasters and accidents for trainers; Drawing up a syllabus of a course in response in the event of disasters and accidents for pupils in Grade I–XII; Preparing textbooks and training aids for children at kindergartens; Developing textbooks and training means for pupils at primary and secondary schools, as well as methodological handbooks for teachers; Preparing study resources for university students; and Creating e-textbooks and an educational web site.
2.2. International Activity MSPDA’s major objectives in its international activity are: • •
Implementation of the foreign policy priorities of the Republic of Bulgaria concerning fulfilment of the requirements for NATO and EU membership; Cooperation with the United Nations, the Council of Europe, and other international organisations;
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• • •
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Strengthened cooperation with the countries in South East Europe and the Black Sea Region and establishment of our country as a guarantee for stability and security in the region; Enhanced bilateral international cooperation; Improved organisation and coordination in the preparation and implementation of international humanitarian operations and trainings.
These major objectives underpinning the international activity of the Ministry are carried out through a range of measures focused primarily on: • • • • • •
•
•
•
Planning, coordination and management of bilateral, regional and multilateral activities related to collaboration in the state policy for disasters and accidents; Preparation, management and coordination of the activities on drafting and harmonising bilateral and multilateral international treaties, agreements and other international laws relevant to the state policy for disasters and accidents: Fulfilment of the commitments under international agreements in the field of state policy for disasters and accidents to which the Republic of Bulgaria is a party; Full participation of the Republic of Bulgaria in international structures and organisations connected to the state policy for disasters and accidents and security; Organisation and coordination of activities related to international humanitarian operations; Participation in the coordination and management of the planning and implementation of initiatives relevant to Bulgaria’s NATO membership and of activities aimed at catching up with EU Member States in the field of civil emergency planning and civil protection; Establishment of international cooperation and advance of bilateral and multilateral relations with the aim of guaranteeing alignment with European standards and good practices in prevention, response, management, consequences mitigation and recovery from the damages inflicted by disasters and accidents; Establishment of beneficial cooperation and assistance in introducing systems for monitoring, early forecast and warning, a single information system for disaster and accident management, a single emergency call system ‘112’, providing up-to-date and highly effective equipment for response in the event of disasters and accidents and others; Creation of the necessary administrative capacity to effectively use the preaccession financial instruments, as well as the EU Structural and Cohesion Funds in order to ensure maximum population protection and protection of the economy against disasters and accidents.
The Ministry’s international activity is implemented by officials of the International Relations Directorate in cooperation with the Minister’s Political Cabinet, the Ministry’s Administration and other Ministries and agencies. In the fulfilment of its functions the International Relations Directorate works in cooperation with other bodies and institutions, as well as civil society structures. In pursuit of its objectives the Ministry, through its Directorate, drafts, presents for funding and implements pro-
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grammes and projects, participates in inter-agency working groups, ensures maximum transparency and publicity of its international activities. 2.3. Flood Risk Assessment Floods are natural phenomena which cannot be prevented. However, some human activities and climate change contribute to an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events. It is feasible and desirable to reduce the risk of adverse consequences associated with floods. Floods have the potential to cause fatalities, displacement of people and damage to the environment, to severely compromise economic development and to undermine the economic activities of the Community. Between January 2006 and October 2007, the institutions of the European Union negotiated the text of the Flood Risk Directive 2007/60/EC (FRD). The FRD was formally adopted by European Parliament and by the Council of the European Union (council of ministers) on October 23rd, 2007. The directive was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on November 6th, 2007 and will enter into force on November 26th [7]. Member States now have two years to implement the Directive’s requirements into their respective national legislations. According to the Article 2 of the FRD, flood is “temporary covering by water of land not normally covered by water” and flood risk is combination of: − −
the probability of a flood event the potential adverse consequences.
Often used definition: Risk = probability x consequences: ∞
Flood risk = ∫ D ( h ) .P ( h ) .dh
(1)
0
where: D(h) = damage associated with a particular flood event. P(h) = probability of that flood event occurring (0...1). 2.4. Flood Protection Activities in Bulgaria The basic characteristics of Systems for Emergency/Disaster Aid are: − −
Rapid deployment by air, sea, land transport; Medium water production volume (main priority is drinking water), small decentralised units; Table 1. Total flood risk [8]
Flood level (h)
P(h)
x
D(h)
=
P(h).D(h)
low
0.8
€ 150,000
€ 120,000
medium
0.5
€ 2,500,000
€ 1,250,000
high
0.1
€ 10,000,000
€ 1,000,000
Total flood risk:
€ 2,370,000
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− − −
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Proven function and reliability; Operability in remote locations with insecure supply chains (scarce fuel, no grid, and destroyed infrastructure); and Deployment, operation and maintenance usually carried out by donor organizations.
The heavy rainfall and floods that occurred in Bulgaria in the period May-August 2005 left substantial devastating consequences for the infrastructure and the regional and local economies. In addition, many human lives have been jeopardized, 17 persons lost their lives, more than 2,000,000 persons directly suffered from the devastating power of the high water. The rainfall caused extensive flooding and material damage and the potential danger of new and larger floods has not yet been overcome. Preliminary data and analyses show that most of these areas have received over 300 l/m2/day. A crisis situation was officially declared by municipal and district authorities in 24 municipalities within Shoumen, Stara Zagora, Targovishte, Veliko Tarnovo, Lovech, Pleven, Pernik, Vratza, Pazardjik, Plovdiv, Smolian and Sofia regions. The population affected by the disasters is around 3.2 million persons. As a result of the floods a great majority of the above-mentioned municipalities are currently deprived of electricity, adequate water supply and lack communications. The analysis carried out shows that more than 14,500 private and public buildings have been flooded and 1,292 of them have been partially or completely destroyed, part of the local population – about 14,000 persons have been evacuated and left without proper housing conditions and amenities, 125 road and railway river bridges have been damaged, 5,736 km of roads and highways were affected and 124 km of railway tracks have been destroyed, including also several railway stations. 52 km of water protection dykes were destroyed. 42 hospitals and health-care establishments flooded and 435 schools, kindergartens and other educational facilities were damaged. Aside from the clear need to restore accessibility and the ecological balance in the most affected areas, the seriousness of the damage to public health and educational institutions cannot be underestimated. The schools receive funding through the municipalities, which in crisis situations leads to major funding delays or even cuts. The health system comprises primarily integrated health care complexes, which, especially in small municipalities, provides both inpatient and outpatient treatment. The Permanent Commission for Civil Protection from Natural Disasters, Calamities and Catastrophes (PCCPNDCC) and the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents, also the Permanent Municipality Committees, have organized evacuations and provided emergency assistance to the population in these areas. Preliminary calculations have estimated that the total damages caused to the affected areas amount to 435.7 MEUR. The purpose of the proposed investment (grant scheme) is to reconstruct the local transport, environmental and public health and educational infrastructures damaged by floods, thereby contributing to the economic development of the areas worst affected by the flooding. It should help to ensure that Bulgaria’s process of preparation for accession is not slowed down by this natural disaster and reduce the adverse effects it has on the budgetary situation of the country. Based on the damage assessment findings, well-targeted and urgent investment measures will be implemented in order to rehabilitate the transport infrastructure, revitalize the environment and restore the public health and educational facilities in the areas concerned.
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2.5. Cross Border Cooperation for Flood Protection with Neighbouring Countries Most European rivers are shared by two or more countries. Management of water resources is therefore an important issue in border regions. Since floods are basin-wide phenomena, they do not respect borders, whether national, regional, local or institutional. People react differently to the flooding of land by sea or rivers. It may be accepted as being caused by nature, which means it cannot be influenced. Flooding may also be seen as a process that produces fertile agricultural land and develops nature, and is therefore very welcome in some situations. Or it may be considered as a threat because of economic damage and danger to life, and is therefore something that should be prevented. These different perceptions of floods lead to discussions about how to manage floods. The cross-border effects of floods make it more difficult to solve flood problems. In addition, preventive measures were not possible in all situations because of differences in legal systems and culture, and because of a lack of understanding or even the lack of the right contacts. Real time monitoring and collection of hydrological data is implemented by the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. Most of the river cross-sections are monitored by observers through foot gauges and the reporting of water levels via telephone or telegraph. From the existing 210-river level measuring stations, 44 are reporting at real or semi-real time. Daily data collection is arranged for 12 of those 44 stations, while for the rest a weekly cycle of daily values for the previous week is arranged. The stations and the frequency of data collection for the Danube region are given in the Table 2 below. Similar sets of real-time data are being made available by Bulgaria to the Romanian partner. The Maritza/Evros/Meric basin, including Arda, Tundja and Ergene tributaries, is one of the major river systems located in the eastern Balkans, with a total length of 550 km and a total catchment’s area of 39,000 km2. About 66% belongs to Bulgaria, 28% to Turkey and 6% to Greece. About 218 km of the river are located in Greece, with 203 km of the river forming the borderline with Turkey. Although Maritza/Evros/Meric River, shared by
Table 2. Operational data used for flood forecasting services and received operationally from the Romanian side River
Cross-section
Frequency
Data type
Danube
Corabia
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Tr. Magurele
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Giurdjiu
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Oltenita
Daily
levels/discharges
Iron Gate 1
Orsova
Daily
Levels
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
daily evacuated discharges
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
3 days forecast of daily evacuated disch.
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
3 days forecast of daily incoming disch.
Jiu
Podari
Daily
levels/discharges
Arges
Budesti
Daily
levels/discharges
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Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, is the second longest river after the Danube in the Balkans, this river and its tributary Arda (shared by Greece and Bulgaria) are lacking considerable recent bilateral or trilateral agreements. This situation is mainly due to the past non-trusted political relationships between the three countries. Parts of the Evros/Meric River bed serve as a state border between Greece and Turkey. Thus, both Evros and Ardas rivers are located in a military controlled area. A special permit from military authorities is needed for all scientific or other activities near the rivers. Its delta is an important bird area protected by the Ramsar Convention and the Bern Convention on special species of flora and fauna. It is also cited in the list of regions of special protection according to the EU Directive 79/409/EEC and the national Greek legislation 66/81. Maritza River, which originates in Bulgaria, joins with Arda and Tundja Rivers near Odrin, which are flowing through Bulgaria and Western Thrace respectively. Tundja establishes a 61 km length of Turkey-Bulgaria border until joins to Maritza River. Ergene River, which also joins to Maritza River, is 280 km long and it totally flows in Turkey. Two major tributaries of the Maritza have transboundary sub-catchments themselves: − −
Arda river flows eastward from the Eastern Rhodope mountains (240 km and 5,200 km2 in south-eastern Bulgaria; only 30 km and 345 km2 in Greece) including Kardjali (60,000 inhabitants) and includes various big reservoirs. Tundja river (350 km length and 7,982 km2 in Bulgaria). Main cities are Kazanlak, Sliven (136,000 inhabitants) and Yambol (110,000).
The tributaries Ergene (from Easter Thrace/Turkey) and Arda (Bulgaria and Greece) may induce severe floods and cause a lot of damage to downstream areas. The lower Maritza River regions suffer from floods on Turkish, Bulgarian and Greece territory. Recent years’ floods frequency and magnitude are getting higher and higher. In the past few years the floods occurred at a scale which was not seen in the past twenty years. Besides the floods, decreasing the channel capacity is another polemic part of the region. It becomes clear that improvements in measures for flood prevention and diminishing of flood hazardous effects, could be achieved only through co-operation and use of common information sources. Turkey and Bulgaria have developed three projects – one for information and realtime data exchanging, and two for flood forecasting and warning. These projects are the first common projects which are applied in the region and in the hydrology area. Regarding Greece (GR) and Bulgaria (BG), bilateral cooperation in the use of water dates back to 1964. Both countries ratified the Helsinki Convention for protection and use of trans-boundary watercourses (1992; in Greece it has been in force since 1996) and the Espoo Convention. Since the implementation of Helsinki Convention, Greece and Bulgaria have been cooperating by a joint monitoring in the three common river basins, i.e. Struma, Mesta (including the tributary Dospat) and Maritza (including the tributary Arda). In the following years, bilateral agreements on the use of other trans-boundary rivers waters were signed. Also, cooperation in scientific and technical field for the best management of water resources is established. The main agreements on the protection and use of trans-boundary watercourses are: − −
GR-BG agreement on co-operation for the use of watercourses flowing through the two countries (Legislative Decree 4393/1964). Second Protocol of the GR & BG agreement about the regulation of economic questions and development of the economic co-operation (Legislative Decree
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− − −
−
4393/1964) agreement between GR & BG concerning the formation of a joint committee for the cooperation in the field of electric energy and the use of cross-border river waters (Sofia, 1971). Agreement between GR & BG on scientific and technical cooperation (Athens, 1973/1976). Protocol for the Joint GR-BG Technical Working Group and Environment Group (approved 1990). Protocol for the co-operation of GR-BG Experts for flood control of Strymonas River (approved on 1980); The Agreement from 1964 on flood protection refers to the section downstream of a series of reservoirs in Bulgaria. It operates between local authorities (when the BG reservoir gates release excess water upstream, they send a warning to the GR local authorities). Protocol of the Meeting of the Joint GR-BG Committee of Experts for the preparation of a common proposal to the EU for the joint monitoring and control of water quality and quantity of the transboundary rivers Maritsa/Evros, Mesta/Nestos and Struma/Strymonas. (1991).
At national level in Greece, the Ministry of Environment is responsible for integrated water management. For trans-boundary rivers the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also involved. Next are the Ministries of Economics, of Agriculture and of Defence to some extend. Concerning planning of water quality, parts of the Evros and Ardas catchments on Greek side are designated as NATURA 2000 sites. For these, planning and decision-making is carried out according to the provisions of the relevant national and EU legislation. The State Hydraulic Works (DSI) is responsible for all surface and sub-surface water resources in Turkey (monitoring and planning, design, construction, and operational activities). Decisions are shared between the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and Ministry of Environmental and Forestry, and local communities. The State Hydraulic Works (DSI) does the planning and has several irrigation projects. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry has carried out several wastewater treatment projects in the basin.
3. Conclusions As a result of the issues discussed above the following conclusions can be made: 1.
2.
The Mesta/Nestos River (Greece/Bulgaria) has a number of hydroelectric power plants on the Greek side which need an adequate river flow to operate properly. At present the inflow into Greece is satisfactory. However the hydroelectric and irrigation complex in the Greek part is very vulnerable to interventions by the equipment in the Bulgarian part of the river basin. It is feared that future interventions in Bulgaria may cause shortfalls in the required water levels in Greece. Common legislation or conventions do not apply to the management of crossborder rivers in Greece like the Evros and Nestos. Greece and Bulgaria are EU members (obliged to comply with the WFD), whereas Turkey is a nonmember, although accession negotiations are currently in progress with the EU.
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3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
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It is important to realise that the amplitude, frequency, duration and impact of floods depend on natural characteristics and man-induced changes within the entire river basin area. In many cases, good cross-border cooperation between local and regional flood management authorities can improve the effectiveness of flood management services in these regions. This will ultimately result in better protection of citizens and the environment and reduction of damage. Climate change appears to increase the chances of flooding, while human intervention and activities appear to reduce the resilience of water systems and their environment. The ongoing occupation of flood plains has not only increased the risk of potential damage, but has also resulted in a loss of ecological, economic and social benefits of wetlands. Simultaneously, the increasing investments in safety have reduced the public awareness of flood risks. The need to develop appropriate strategies, policies and programmes to adapt to the changing circumstances, to reduce the negative impact of flooding and to protect the dynamic function of ecosystems, is now widely recognised. Strategy, policy and measures on the prevention, mitigation and protection of floods should be based on a holistic approach. Achieving this requires cooperation between authorities on a river basin scale, as well as integration of spatial planning and water management, integration of the various functions and uses of water, joint disaster management and increased cross-border public awareness.
References EEA-IMS Indicators: Use of freshwater resources (CSI 018), Assessment Draft: http://ims.eionet.europa.eu/ IMS/ISpecs/ISpecification20041007131848/IAssessment. Strategy for Integrated Water Management in the Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, Sofia, 1997. National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006, Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, MoEW, Sofia, 2001. Freshwater Country Profile – Bulgaria, Decision-Making Programmes and Projects, Sofia, 2003. Environmental Protection Act, Republic of Bulgaria, National Assembly, State Gazette No. 91/25.09.2002, Corrected, SG No. 96/2002. Water Act, Republic of Bulgaria, National Assembly, State Gazette No. 67/1999, enforced on 28.01.2000, amended in SG No 87/2000. Flood Risk Directive 2007/60/EC, OJEU/6.11.2007. Jan Verkade, A brief introduction to the Flood (Risk) Directive, National flood conference, Sofia, November 2007.
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Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning Stephan ANKE, Werner BLOHM and Michael LECHELT Institute for Sanitation and Environment, Hamburg, Division: Water Studies, Water Quality Measuring Network, Marckmannstr. 129b, 20539 Hamburg, Germany E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. Time and again, shipping accidents and major incidents at industrial establishments have demonstrated how quickly serious water pollution can occur, with effects such as fish mortality and other harmful impacts on the aquatic habitat. In order to minimise the consequences of such incidents, continuous water monitoring is indispensable in the interests of early identification and timely countermeasures. This is all the more essential in an industrial conurbation like Hamburg. Here the water quality measuring network, with a current total of ten measuring stations, has been operating on all important bodies of water since 1988. In addition to averting danger, continuous water monitoring makes a contribution to prevention (detection of illegal discharges) and to observing short-term and long-term changes in water quality. Keywords. Automated surface water quality measuring stations, continuous water monitoring, water surveillance network Hamburg
Introduction Inputs of hazardous substances into flowing waters as a result of accidents or illegal discharges can give rise to substantial risks and cause harm to man and the environment. In Europe, with its many countries, such incidents frequently assume transboundary proportions. For this reason a number of arrangements and agreements exist to protect man and the environment from industrial accidents at national, river basin, EU and European UN level. They include technical requirements for operating facilities, liability issues, the preparation of warning and emergency plans, and mutual assistance. Timely and speedy action is always necessary to ensure the success of measures to avert danger and minimise damage. The first step is to register the incident, ascertain its scale and then alert the competent authorities. The warning and emergency plans of the commissions of Europe’s major river basins are largely based on a reporting system that requires the author (pollutant emitter) to notify an incident to the competent authorities immediately after it occurs, supplying all relevant data. In this form the warning and emergency plans are “emission oriented”. If the notification is not made – whether deliberately or as a result of ignorance – there remains a risk of major irreparable harm to man and the environment. This danger could be considerably reduced by means of a networked automatic system for identifying incidents along the watercourse and for raising the alert in the notification system of a warning and emergency plan.
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This task could be performed by measuring stations sensibly distributed along the river if they were equipped with a technology that enabled them, by means of suitable automatic measurements in the water – i.e. on an “immission-oriented” basis – to first detect “unusual events”, then identify them as “natural” or “incident-induced”, and finally take an alarm decision based on an assessment of their “relevance”.
1. General Aspects of the Location and Tasks of Automated Surface Water Measuring Stations The quality of stagnant waters and streams is monitored regularly as part of regional, national and international measurement programmes. For this purpose, measuring stations are set up at suitable locations. Measuring stations should be set up in such a way that all major streams can be recorded; that causal relationships can be detected across the country; and that anthropogenic and geogenic impacts can be measured. The issue of trans-boundary effects may also be of importance to the setting up of measuring stations. Possible/suitable locations for measuring stations should relate to one or more of the following: • • • • • •
upstream from the place where streams (relevant to water management) empty into lakes or coastal waters; at important trans-boundary waters near the border; upstream and downstream from conurbations and larger industrial settlements; within important river sections of larger bodies of water; at crucial tributaries immediately upstream from the point of confluence; or at anthropogenically unpolluted river sections (“zero measuring points”, reference measuring points, measuring points of background pollution).
Tasks of measuring programmes should include: •
• •
• • •
Collection, evaluation and assessment of data on water quality (substance concentration with respect to water, suspended matter, sediments and biota; determination of the biological-ecological state of quality and the ecological structure) as a basis for describing the quality of water all across the country; Long-term recording of the quality of streams including background pollution (quality of anthropogenically unpolluted streams) to allow for longer-term and larger-scale trends to be recognised (level of pollution, trends); Compliance with international and national obligations under statutory provisions (e.g. EC directives, state regulations, agreements between states such as ICPDR); monitoring of compliance with predetermined requirements as to water quality (targets/quality standards, for example, under directives 76/464/EEC and 2000/60/EC); Detection and monitoring of critical water conditions, as well as securing of evidence in the case of unforeseen events (e.g. accidents, incidents, and fish mortality); Analysis of substance transport and substance load; and Monitoring of the impact of water use.
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Figure 1. Measuring station “Seemannshöft” on the Elbe in Hamburg/Germany.
The goal of the investigation is to create a database of sufficient size that allows for • • •
the evaluation of the ecological state of bodies of water (chemical and biological); the determination and assessment of water pollution; and the determination of loads and “substance flows” (with estimates of the selective and diffuse portions).
Depending on the water quality-related importance and dynamic (temporal variability of data), a decision is taken on whether the measuring point is sufficient or whether a measuring station has to be set up.
2. Automated Surface Water Quality Measuring Stations Measuring stations are always fixed facilities (e.g. buildings) near bodies of water – it is here that the measured variables are recorded continuously (Fig. 1). Furthermore, these mainly deal with measuring stations that are used for detecting acute waves of pollutants resulting from accidents, incidents, or unintended or illegal inputs. The measuring stations, which are automated and working continuously, create the framework needed for continuous water-quality monitoring, which is not possible with “normal” investigative programmes by taking individual or random samples. The continuous measurements taken at those stations enable scientists to record parameters over a period of time that are characterised by a high degree of variability (mostly strongly dependent on seasonal and meteorological factors). They are also crucial parameters in assessing the results gleaned from laboratory tests (through random samples). These stations are not only equipped with measuring devices, but also with datacollecting devices. Depending on the task at hand, theseS o
ly
on y
ni go
v
y he r
C
no vt s
ra d
he r
no g vo
he r
C
ol iko p N C
et s ga n
M ar
ol ty ye
Vo dy
0,144
Zh
ro pe t ne p D
0,667
0,614
ro ws k
CID0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Figure 4. Comparitive characteristics of the rate of cells with micro-kernels (on the basis of their conditional indices of damageability) in children living in different cities of Ukraine, 1999–2006, (р < 0,05).
The calculated CID for organisms of children in cytogenetic parameters in view of minimal (P = comfortable) and maximal (P = critical) values of the investigated parameter, testify that in control points there is established a “low” level of genetic damage in epithelial cells, and a “safe” state of organism in the cytogenetic status. It has allowed its consideration as a “reference” in the mutagenic background for the ecological state of control territories of the medical-improving complex “Solyony Liman”, as well as the settlement of Nikita in АR Crimea. In the cities of Dnepropetrovsk, Chervonograd and Chernovtsy was observed an “average” level of damage of cells in children and their “conflicting” state. In the centres of mining and primary processing industries – to which belong the cities of the Dnepropetrovsk region, namely Marganets, Nikopol and Zholtyye Vody (Yellow Waters) – the level of damage of the biosystems is specified as “above average” on the basis of a “threatening” state of children’s organism in the cytogenetic status. As a whole, the ecological situation in the general mutagenic background in the territory of investigated technogenic-loaded cities is estimated as “unsatisfactory”. Mostly, genetic disorders were manifest in the cells of the children living in territory which has been subjected to the significant influence of radioactive releases owing to the disaster in the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station, namely in the city of Chernigov. That area has been specified as having a “high” level of genetic disorders in the cells of children, and a “critical” state of children’s organisms in the cytogenetic status. The ecological situation in the mutagenic background is defined here as “critical”. Thus, the above-mentioned methodology permits not only the ranking of the territories in the toxico-mutagenic background, but also the definition of the levels of ecogenetic danger for all live organisms, including humans. This is imperative for the development and realisation of programmes for the rehabilitation of the state of environmental objects and the population’s health. The offered methodology of the socio-ecological monitoring can be used for similar research in the whole of Ukraine and in other states.
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References [1] The European Policy in Health Reaching for Everybody in the Twenty First Century. // A Working Document for Consultations. The World Health Organisation. 1997. Page 216. [2] Tasks for Reaching Health for All: the European Policy of Public Health Services. Copenhagen: the World Health Organisation. The European Regional Bureau. 1993. Page 322. [3] K. V. Pikul. Abnormal Development in Children from the Nitrate Polluted Territory. / The Environment and Health. 2003. No 2 (25). Page 18-20. [4] E. A. Derkachev, L. B. Ogip, K. Yu. Ogip, І. О. Gubar. The Influence of Ground Pollution with Heavy Metals on the State of Population Health and the Forecast of its Possible Changes. // The Hygiene of Populous Cities. Edition 45. Kiev. 2005. Page 159-165. [5] A. I. Gorovaya, I. I. Klimkina. The Methodology of Socio-Ecological Monitoring with the Use of Cytogenetic Methods. // C. Mothersill et al. (eds.), Multiple Stressors: A Challenge for the Future. – S. 91-102. 2007 Springer. Printed in the Netherlands. [6] A. I. Gorovaya, I. I. Кlimkina. The Use of a Cytogenetic Testing for the Assessment of the Ecological Situation and Effectiveness of Sanitation for children and adults with Natural Adaptogenes. // Cytology and Genetics. 2002. No. 5. Page 21-25. [7] R. M. Arutunyan, E. R. Tumanyan, G. S. Shiriyan. The Analysis of Microkernels in Mucous Oral Cavity for the Assessment of Cytogenetic Effect of Environment Pollutants. // Cytology and Genetics. 1990. – 24, No. 2. Page 57-60. [8] Bottom-Zoological Diagnostics of Population Health State in Connection with the Influence of Environmental Factors. // Methodical Recommendations. MR 2.2.12.068. 2000. Page 42. [9] O. V. Berdnik. The Sensitivity of an Organism to Environmental Factors. // The Environment and Health. 2000. – No. 1 (12). Page 38-42.
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-226
Medical and Biological Aspects of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Influence on the Population of the Republic of Moldova Liubov CORETCHI and Ion BAHNAREL National Scientific and Applied Centre of Preventive Medicine, Gh. Asachi 67 A, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova Abstract. During the 1996–2004 period 850 patients, who were participants in diminishing the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident (PDCCNA), and their children, were investigated in terms of clinical, immunological and cytogenetic analyses. The clinical investigations indicate that the PDCCNA patients, when compared with patients of a control group, were more susceptible to infectious and non-infectious diseases, with the prevalence of large polymorphism of nervous, heart-vascular and gastric-intestinal system, which were accompanied by circulatory disorder of the vegetative nervous system. The immunological analysis revealed alterations in the immune system of the PDCCNA. Cytogenetic research of the lymphocyte cultures of peripheral blood of PDCCNA members living in the Republic of Moldova in the last 15–20 years after the accident, and their children, revealed the deterioration of the hereditary system, being expressed through a high level of genomic, chromosomal, and chromatid type aberration. Chromosomal type of aberrations prevailed in the adults and chromatid type in the children. Keywords. Chernobyl nuclear accident, clinical investigations, cytogenetic analysis, immunology
Introduction Stress factor effects on population health evaluation [9], especially on emergency workers, remains one of the most important problems of contemporary medicine [2] and in this regard the Chernobyl nuclear accident (CNA) that took place on the 26th April 1986 is an eloquent example. Radioactive substances produced as a result of the CNA fell out over a significant part of Europe, including the Republic of Moldova, affecting more than 5,000,000 persons. In the clearance and abatement of the CNA consequences there was participation by a lot of military staff including a great number of reservists. Lack of previous experience in the field (since it was the first large-scale nuclear accident) made it impossible to prepare specially trained personnel for such control and clearance tasks. Consequently, many military staff, even from the first days, were presented to medical authorities with a range of symptoms which were characterized as somatic diseases after detailed investigations [7]. The ionizing radiation influence on the health status of the participants attempting to diminish the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident (PDCCNA) were diffi-
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Figure 1. Diseases spectrum in the CNA workers (%).
cult enough to evaluate, and so called for an adequate multi-lateral study applying modern diagnostic techniques. Large studies were conducted in the Russian Federation, the Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus. Acquired data suggested the existence of a noticeable deteriorating effect of ionizing radiation, produced as a secondary effect of the CNA, with an increased incidence of health-status disturbances in the affected population [3,5,6]. Approximately 3,500 inhabitants from the Republic of Moldova took part in the clearance of the CNA consequences. This study objective comprises the determination of clinical, immunological and cytogenetic features in the PDCCNA from the population of the Republic of Moldova and their descendants.
1. Clinical Aspects of Therapeutic Pathology Manifestation in Cohort of PDCCNA The group comprised patients within the age range 32–54 with an exposure period to ionizing radiation ranging from 15 to 180 days during the clearance of the CNA effects, which during 1986–1987 comprised 90% of participants and during 1988–1989 it was 10% of participants. The control group included 62 persons, also within the age range 32–54, that was a relatively healthy group which was not previously exposed to ionizing radiation. A detailed study of the ionizing radiation exposure influence on the health status of persons situated in the increased radiation activity zone due to the CNA, determined that general morbidity of these patients has its peculiarities. It showed that 308 patients were concomitantly supervised by more than one specialist, i.e. they suffered from multi-systemic pathology. It must be mentioned that psycho-neurological pathologies prevailed in the determined diseases spectrum and in 1998 these were encountered in about 36% of all diagnosed pathologies, thus being the dominant effect. The second most dominant effect was gastro-intestinal system pathology (30.55%), followed by cardiovascular diseases (17.0%). Endocrine system pathology, which was in a state of continuing increase, was the fourth most dominant with 11.65% of cases. Osteoarticular pathology was rather rarely met, being diagnosed in 3.25%, 3.4% and 3.2% respectively in 1996, 1997, and 1998 (Fig. 1). Urogenital diseases were determined in 1.85%, 1.9% and 1.6% of cases respectively in 1996, 1997, and 1998. The analysis carried out allowed the possibility of revealing a dynamic increase overall and in all systems of pathology incidence in the PDCCNA.
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Figure 2. Nervous system diseases in the PDCCNA (%).
Figure 3. Gastrointestinal diseases in the PDCCNA presentation (%).
Cerebrovascular pathology comprised up to 59.6% of the overall nervous system diseases. Patients who suffered from neuro-circulatory dystonia and various degrees discirculatory encephalopathies were predominant. Angiospastic and angiodystonic disturbances in superior and inferior extremity vessels were found in 22.4% cases. Vegetative polyneuropathy was diagnosed in 13.0% cases, mostly being associated with hypothalamic paroxysmal epileptiform crises (3.5%). Spinal vascular affections were registered in only 1.5% of patients with nervous system pathology (Fig. 2.). The most frequent complaints of the patients with predominating nervous system pathology included permanent intensive headache, particularly in the second half of the day, vertigo, marked asthenia, nervousness, insomnia, both superior and inferior extremities numbness, working ability diminution and precoma stages. Chronic liver diseases are the most frequent manifestations of gastro-intestinal system diseases among the PDCCNA (32.8%). Ulcer diseases, chronic gastritis and liver cirrhoses comprised, respectively, 20.45%, 18.6% and 0.45% of the overall number of patients with this group of diseases (Fig. 3). Figure 4 shows the PDCCNA morbidity structure 20 years after the CNA. 2. Cellular Immunity Peculiarities in the PDCCNA Many authors appreciate the major importance of the lymphoid system in the processes of regeneration, rehabilitation, and creation of an increased resistance of the organ-
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Figure 4. Morbidity structure of the PDCCNA 20 years after the CAN.
ism [1,8]. An important role in this direction is attributed to monocytes. Nowadays, it is considered that granule cytopenia, relative lymphocytosis, hyper segmentation, and fragmentation of the neutrophiles nucleus, the presence of lymphocytosis with modifications within the nuclei and cytoplasm, represent certain specific markers of chronic ionizing irradiation. As a result, the ionizing radiation, together with chemical, physical and psychological factors “give birth” to the “Chernobyl syndrome”. Table 1 includes comparative results for the immunological indicators in the PDCCNA and the patients who did not belong to the control group. As can be seen, we analyzed the state of the persons that did not take part in the decrease of consequences of the CNA and were not subject of radiological investigations (n = 62). The analysis of the populations and sub-populations structures of the lymphocytes of the peripheral blood was applied to 100 of the PDCCNA that, for the clinical study, had been divided into three groups. The results of the immunological study showed an authentic decrease (P < 0.05) of the leucocytes number in the PDCCNA (5.51 ± 0.23), in comparison with the patients from the control group (6.6 ± 0.26); the data are included in Table 1. In the PDCCNA the percentage of the T-total lymphocytes was lower (44.33 ± 1.23) than in the control group, i.e. 44.33 ± 1.23 Vs. 47.55 ± 1.07 (P < 0.05). Concerning the T-teophylline-resistant, teophylline-sensitive, and thermo stable lymphocytes, we did not notice an essential difference between the values of these indicators in the PDCCNA and of the control group patients. Further, we established that in the PDCCNA, the B-complementary lymphocytes number diminished under the influence of stressful factors of the CNA. In this context, their percentage constituted 22.39 ± 1.15%, in comparison with the patients from the control group – 21.79 ± 0.76% (P < 0.05), their portion being equal to 0.4 ± 0.15%, (CEW) and for the patients from the control group – 0.57 ± 0.02% (P < 0.05) (Table 1). The above-mentioned results confirm the data from the specialized literature which claims that, under the influence of the ionizing radiations, some changes appear in the system of the cellular immunity.
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Table 1. Characterization of the cellular immunity indicators in the PDCCNA and of patients from the control group (%)
Nr
Immunological indicators
PDCCNA group (n=100)x ± mx
Control group (n = 62) x ± mx
1.
Leucocytes, g/l
5.51 ± 0.23
6.60 ± 0.26*
2.
Lymphocytes, %
34.31 ± 1.56
29.60 ± 1.19*
3.
Lymphocytes, g/l
1.92 ± 0.12
1.84 ± 0.07
4.
T-active Lymphocytes, %
23.15 ± 2.17
24.60 ± 1.06
5.
T-active Lymphocytes 109/l
0.44 ± 0.05
0.44 ± 0.03
6.
T-total Lymphocytes, %
44.33 ± 1.23
47.55 ± 1.07*
7.
T-total Lymphocytes,109/l
0.82 ± 0.05
0.85 ± 0.04
8.
T-teophylline-resistant Lymphocytes, %
30.08 ± 1.20
31.14 ± 1.08
9.
T-teophylline-resistant Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.56 ± 0.05
0.57 ± 0.03
10.
T-teophylline-sensitive Lymphocytes, %
14.41 ± 0.77
15.51 ± 0.58
11.
T-teophylline-sensitive Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.27 ± 0.02
0.28 ± 0.01
12.
T-thermostable Lymphocytes, %
9.45 ± 1.45
8.07 ± 0.89
13.
T-thermostable Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.17 ± 0.13
0.15 ± 0.02
14.
B-complementary Lymphocytes, %
22.39 ± 1.15
21.79 ± 0.76*
15.
B-complementary Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.40 ± 0.15
0.57 ± 0.02*
Notes: * – The difference between the cellular immunity indicators in the PDCCNA and patients from the control group is genuine after the t-Criterion Student (P<0.05); x ± mx – the average value with error.
A rather decisive indicator concerning the evaluation of the functional state of the T-lymphocytes subpopulations constitutes the co-report between the T-helpers and Tsuppressors populations. The decrease in number of T-suppressors is explained by some authors [10] through their amplified radio sensitivity, and the diminishing of their function can lead to the appearance of self-aggression and worsening of patients’ chronic diseases. Of great importance is the simultaneous reduction of the number of T-lymphocytes and T-suppressors, considered as an initiation in the development of secondary immunologic disturbances. In the case of the PDCCNA investigations, we established that the value of the co-report T-helpers/T-suppressors was higher than the same value for the patients from the control group, which indicates an augmentation of the number of T-helpers in the PDCCNA, in comparison with the patients from the control group. From the total number of stressful factors that influenced the PDCCNA, radiation was found to be the principal one, and so showing that the cellular marker was more sensitive to ionizing irradiation was of great interest. For this purpose, we made the corelational and regressive analysis for each immunological indicator, for the exposure time of the PDCCNA and for their age, counting the coefficients of correlation with the dose of ionizing irradiation. We traced out that the most sensitive indicators of the chronic effect in the majority of doses of ionizing radiations were both the percentage and the absolute number of the B-complementary lymphocytes (r = –0.54 ± 0.01 and r = –0.66 ± 0.01). For the rest of the cases, the dependence dose-effect was of a negative nature too, yet the values of the coefficients were lower and we established an unimportant dependence. For example, in the case of the relation between the dose and
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Table 2. Characterization of the immunoglobulin in the PDCCNA (g/l) Name of the studied groups
IgA
IgM
IgG
1
2
1
2
1
2
1.
The group with dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis; n = 21
2.58
1.1–10.9
1.74
0.29–15.6
13.44
0.8–18.4
2.
The group with psycho neurological disorders; n = 22
2.27
1.6–2.4
2.41
0.5–12.4
15.68
0.64–23.0
3.
The group with gastrointestinal disorders; n = 19
3.99
1–35
1.09
0.41–2.1
14.3
9.8–23.2
4.
Optimal norm of the immune rank in men aged 21–40 years old
1.12–1.68
8
8.38–10.07
1.75–2.43
Notes: 1 – average value; 2 – the interval.
the lymphocytes, r = –0.28 ± 0.2; the system T-active lymphocytes – dose, r = –0.33 ± 0.1; and for the system T-total lymphocytes – dose r = –0.06 ± 0.77.
3. Humoral Immunity Indices Modifications in the PDCCNA We examined the IgA, IgM and IgG (i.e. immunoglobulins A, M and G) levels in 62 of the PDCCNA in order to study the influence of the ionizing radiation factor upon the values of humoral immunity indicators in PDCCNA. These persons were distributed into three groups according to the clinical results: (i) having dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis; (ii) disturbances of gastrointestinal tract; and (iii) psycho-neurological disorders. The results of the investigation showed an increase of IgA levels in every studied group, the values being 2.58 g/l, 2.27 g/l, and 3.99 g/l, respectively, for the patients having dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis, disturbances of gastrointestinal tract, and psycho-neurological disorders. The optimal norm of the IgA values was between 1.75–2.43 g/l. A noticeable increase (3.99 g/l) was traced out in patients with gastrointestinal tract disturbances, the interval of variability of that indicator being larger, i.e. 1–35 g/l. Concerning IgM, we established a slight increase of this indicator (2.41 g/l) in the group with psycho-neurological disorders. The minimal value was 0.5 g/l, and that maximum was 12.4 g/l. As for the other two groups of patients, the average IgM values corresponded to the norm and constituted 1.74 g/l (minimum value – 0.29 g/l, maximum – 15.6 g/l) for the group with dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis, and 1.09 g/l (minimum value – 0.4 g/l, maximum – 2.1 g/l) for the group with gastrointestinal tract disturbances. For men aged 21–40 years old (which age range corresponds with the age of men from the PDCCNA group) the normal IgA value constituted 1.12–1.68 g/l. Regarding IgG there could be observed a growth of 30–50% in the amount in all investigated groups when compared with the maximum value of the optimal norm (8.38–10.07 g/l), especially in the group with psycho-neurological disorders where the IgG average value represented 15.68 g/l, with limit intervals of 0.64 g/l – minimum value and 23.0 g/l – maximum value (Table 2).
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The increases in IgM and IgA values were associated with a high level of lymphocytes proliferations, which presumes the presence of antigen stimulation of the immune system.
4. Cytogenetic Side Effects in the PDCCNA Inhabitants of the Republic of Moldova The negative influence of the ionizing radiation on the cells depends on the direct transmission of the energy of charged particles or secondary electrons towards the atoms and the molecules of the cellular material. The main results of this action are that the ions and the atoms are excited by the particle that crosses the cell. Then follows the IInd stage when the ions interact with the molecules from the cell and the last, being excited, can dissociate forming free radicals. The IIIrd stage (chemical) is the result of the interaction between free radicals and intracellular macromolecules: DNA, proteins and macromolecules [6]. The biological effects of the ionizing radiation depend on the quantity of energy absorbed by the tissues or cells and that is why measuring the dose is of great importance, i.e. the severity of the effect depends on the dose absorbed by the tissues. One of the characteristic manifestations of the influence of the ionizing radiation on the cell is the inhibition of the mitotic activity. Substantial doses of ionizing radiation, if applied, can affect large cytoplasmatic structures, as well as processes of synthesis, that occur within the cytoplasm. The investigation of cytogenetic effects, as an element of retro-biodosimetry consisted of the estimation of the genetic risk associated with the ionizing irradiation, with the study of the CNA influence on the PDCCNA. In order to achieve this purpose, we followed some objectives: • •
The detection of the influence of ionizing radiation actions on chromosomal apparatus in the PDCCNA and their descendants, that resulted after the CNA; Output of the biological dosimeter based on the cytogenetic analysis, within the PDCCNA group, according to the dicentric analysis scheme;
Figure 5. Chromosomes aberration detected in the PDCCNA.
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Figure 6. Genomic mutations detected in the PDCCNA and in the patients from the control lot during the first (M1, K1) and second (M2, K2) mitosis, (X ± mX, %).
Figure 7. The frequency of chromosomes aberration detected in the PDCCNA and in patients from the control group.
• •
To establish the ionizing irradiation dose and the incidence of the chromosomal aberrations correlation; and To detect the PDCCNA children’s hereditary diseases frequency.
The results denote that in the PDCCNA, the frequency of genomic mutations and chromosomal aberrations was higher, in comparison with that of the control group (Figs 6 and 7). The significance of the study of the mechanism of chromosomal aberrations is determined by the fact that they play a major role in the development of the deterioration because of the ionizing radiation action. Biodosimetric research shows that during the cytogenetic study of the blood lymphocytes, the quantitative analysis of the dicentrics and ring chromosomes has an essential role. The results of the investigations show that there were detected both cells with one dicentric and two dicentrics, the former predominating. Summarizing the above mentioned factors, we can consider that the results obtained on the cytogenetic analysis in the PDCCNA who were living in the Republic of Moldova, demonstrate the increase of chromosomal mutagenesis in somatic cells of the investigated persons, which include those patients in the group with a high risk of pathologies with a genetic component.
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Table 3. Frequency and the spectrum of chromosomal aberrations in the PDCCNA’s children The examined parameters
Detected aberrations
X ± mX, %
Chromosomes general state in metaphase
1. Endoreduplication
0.04 ± 0.004
2. Incomplete separation of chromatids
0.13 ± 0.08
3. Complete separation of chromatids
0.70 ± 0.2
Polyploidy
0.39 ± 0.1
Hyperploids
0.31 ± 0.1
1. Gaps
3.9 ± 0.4
2. Solitary fragments
2.35 ± 0.3
3. Changes
0.17 ± 0.09
Genomic anomalies
Chromatid-type aberrations
Chromosome-type aberrations
Pair fragments: 1. Changes
0.57 ± 0.2
2. Dicentrics
0.09 ± 0.06
3. Rings
0.04 ± 0.004
4. Abnormal monocentrics
0.04 ± 0.004
During the investigations of the PDCCNA descendants’ karyota, there were involved 23 boys and girls, born between 1989 and 1992. The total number of investigated metaphases amounted to 2,300 and the results obtained are presented in Table 3.
5. Congenital Malformations Study in Children from the Republic of Moldova In order to assess and monitor the influence of mutagenic factors within the populations, radio-ecological and genetic monitoring is applied, as well as the use of the most efficient methods, namely systems of supervision and assessment of the frequency of congenital malformations. The morphogenetic disturbances present a major risk (morphological congenital anomalies without functional disturbances), and are considered minor anomalies of development. They can be caused by both endogenous and exogenous factors. The presence of the minor anomalies within the population can serve as a criterion for a hostile ecology. The detection of three or more minor anomalies allows us to suppose the appearance of a hereditary polygene disease, but the presence of five or even more anomalies, presents a major factor of risk. The purpose of our research was to study the frequency of congenital anomalies in children from different geographical zones of the Republic of Moldova. The study included 863 children aged 1–15 years old from 29 areas of the republic: from the North, 236 children, from the Center, 354, and from the South, 273 children. We assessed the following indicators of the hereditary pathologies: 1.
2. 3. 4.
Minor anomalies (MA) caused by the disturbances of the processes of morphogenesis, during the intra-uterine period. We classified them according to the number of MA detected in a child. Congenital malformations (CM) of polygene etiology have been described according to the universal classification of diseases. Multiple syndromes of hereditary etiology (chromosomal and genes syndromes) were described. Polygene hereditary diseases are mainly caused by external factors.
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Table 4. The frequency of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases in different zones of the Republic of Moldova (10,000 children) Pathologies
Total number of minor anomalies
North
Centre
South
RM
1
2
3
4
3927.9 ± 317.9
3607.0 ± 255.2
4234.4 ± 299.0
4017.3 ± 166.8
P
P > 0.05 P1.2 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 1–2
118.6 ± 21.0
P1.4 < 0.05 251.4 ± 23.0
157.5 ± 22.0
185.4 ± 13.2
P2.3 < 0.05 P2.4 < 0.05 P1.2 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 3–5
P1.3 < 0.01 622.8 ± 31.5
327.6 ± 24.9
274.7 ± 27.0
391.6 ± 16.6
P1.4 < 0.01 P3.4 < 0.01 P1.2 < 0.05
Minor anomalies 6–8
P1.3 < 0.01 194.9 ± 25.7
288.1 ± 24.0
424.9 ± 29.9
305.9 ± 15.6
P2.3 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 9–11
–
25.4 ± 8.3
69.6 ± 15.4
33.6 ± 6.1
P2.3 < 0.05
Congenital malformations
266.9 ± 22.8
248.5 ± 36.8
358.9 ± 40.8
288.5 ± 22.9
P3.4 < 0.05
38.1 ± 12.4
11.3 ± 5.6
25.6 ± 9.5
23.1 ± 5.1
p > 0.05
Monogenic pathologies
29.6 ± 11.0
8.4 ± 4.8
3.6 ± 3.6
11.5 ± 3.6
P1.3<0.05
Pathologies with chromosomal etiology
8.7 ± 5.9
2.8 ± 2.8
21.9 ± 8.8
10.4 ± 3.4
P2.3 < 0.05
Polygenic pathologies
258.4 ± 28.5
355.9 ± 25.4
212.4 ± 24.7
283.8 ± 15.3
Total number of hereditary diseases
P2.3 < 0.01
P1.2 < 0.05 P2.3 < 0.01
The analysis of the results shows that, according to the spread frequency of all MA between the zones of the Republic of Moldova, we did not notice an authentic difference. Concurrently, we established that MA frequency, (1–2 anomalies in a child/multiple MA (6–8 in a child), was lower in children from the northern part of the country, constituting 194.0 ± 25.79 cases, and higher in those from the southern part, namely. 424.91 ± 29.92 cases (p < 0.01). In this region, 9–11 MA in one child, were also very frequent, representing 69.6 ± 15.4 cases in 10,000 children, the average in the republic being 33.6 ± 6.1 (p < 0.05) cases (Table 4). The analysis of CM-spreading frequency observed an increase in children from the southern parts – 358.97 ± 40.89 cases (p < 0.05). The anomalies of the following systems were prevalent: digestive – 150.18 ± 21.62 cases; urinary – 146.52 ± 21.4 cases;
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Table 5. The frequency of congenital malformations according to genetic monitoring of newborn children between 2000 and 2001 in the Republic of Moldova (10,000 newborn) Type
North
Centre
South
Republic
1
2
3
4
P
P1.4 < 0.01 P1.3 < 0.01 Minor anomalies
28.58 ± 1.8
45.1 ± 1.8
58.11 ± 2.71
43.64 ± 1.01
P1.2 < 0.01 P3.4 < 0.01 P2.3 < 0.01 P1.4 < 0.01
Congenital malformation
P3.4 < 0.01 154.11 ± 4.1
195.33 ± 3.8
217.03 ± 5.2
188.86 ± 2.49
P1.2 < 0.01 P1.3 < 0.01 P2.3 < 0.01
musculoskeletal – 36.63 ± 11.37 cases; and genital – 14.65 ± 7.27 cases (p > 0.05). MA and CM frequencies were compared with the results obtained via the monitoring of congenital anomalies in newborns, which has been applied in the Republic of Moldova since 1989. The results, presented in Table 5, show a major frequency both of CM (217.03 ± 5.2), and MA (58.11 ± 2.71) in newborn children from the southern part (p < 0.01). Concerning the northern part, we established a lower frequency of CM – 154.11 ± 4.15 cases and MA – 28.58 ± 1.8 cases, in comparison with the central part of the republic (p < 0,01).
6. Conclusions 1.
2.
3.
The clinical study of the general morbidity structures of the PDCCNA allowed the highlighting of the fact that diseases of psycho-neurological, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular systems prevail. We noticed an increase of 3–4 times the frequency of disturbances of the above-mentioned systems’ pathologies in the PDCCNA, in comparison with the pre-CNA period. Classical rosette formation tests explained the following disturbances in the PDCCNA immune status: diminution of the T-total and B-complementary lymphocytes absolute number, and net increases in IgG and IgA immunoglobulin levels. The correlative and regressive analysis of immunological parameters’ dependence on the ionizing radiation dose determined the negative linear correlation between the B-complementary lymphocytes number and the absorbed dose (r = –0.54). The cytogenetic examinations of the lymphocyte population have traced the effect on the reproductive system in the PDCCNA and manifest through the increase in chromosomal aberrations frequency on the genomic, chromosomal and chromatid levels. The chromosomal aberrations predominated. Thus, the average frequency of the hyperploids cells at the participants was 8.0 times higher in comparison with the control group. The level of solitary and pair
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4.
237
fragments was 3.6 and 5.0 times higher in comparison with the control group. The analysis of the dicentric distribution allowed us to carry out the retrobiodosimetry in the PDCCNA. The determination of the type of immune response according to the level and the co-report of determinants expressing on the surface of the immunology regulatory T-lymphocytes makes the method more informative and it can serve as a marker in clinical forecasting. One cannot exclude the fact that the PDCCNA disturbances of the immune system, according to the IInd type of reactions, presents the group at high risk to further development of the lymph proliferate diseases and so requires regular immunological monitoring.
References [1] Н. Опополь, Р. Коробов, Эколого-гигиенический Мониторинг: проблемы и решения. Кишинев: Центр. Типогр, 2001, 238. [2] I. Bahnarel, The prevention of the local nuclear accidents in the Republic of Modova, IAEA-CN-70/88, Contributed papers “Safety of radiation sources and security of radioactive materials”, Conference held in Dijon, France, 1998. [3] А.А. Ильин и др., Экологические особенности и медико-биологические последствия аварии на ЧАЭС, Медицинская радиология (1989), № 11, 59-81. [4] V.G. Bebeshko, V.I. Klimenko, L.N. Yukhimuk, et al., The hematopoietic system and bone marrow microenvironment state of the persones which were heavily irradiated as a result of the Chernobyl accident, Proccedings of the International round table “Chernobyl: Never again”. Italy (1994), 87-89. [5] E. Botezatu, O. Iacob, Contribution of Chernobyl Accident to human contamination with Strontium-90, Long-term health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. 2nd International Conference. Kiev (1998), 25. [6] G.G. Boroday, Zh.V. Usatenko, Indices pathological affection among children included into clinical and epidemiological register, Long-term consequences of the Cernobyl disaster, 2nd International Conference. Kiev (1998), 23. [7] L. Andrieş, G. Pădure, L. Rusu et al., Metode unificate de cercetare ale statusului imun. Chişinău (1993), 30. [8] В.Ю. Нугис, А.А. Чирков, Способ оценки дозы и величины облученного объема тела при частичном радиационном поражении по результатам цитогенетического анализа культур лимфоцитов периферической крови, Радиoбиология 29 (1986), № 6, 838-840. [9] N. Dubinin, Genetica moleculară şi acţiunea radiaţiilor asupra eredităţii, Bucureşti: Ed. Ştiinţifică (1963), 286. [10] О.И. Потетня, Сравнительная оценка структурных повреждений хромосом лимфоцитов человека в различных стадиях митотического цикла при облучении источниками 60Со и 232То с разной мощности дозы. Aвтореф. дис. на соиск. уч. степ. канд. биол. наук. Обнинск (1990).
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Theme 5 Hazard/Risk Communication/Public Participation
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-241
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PIMS as a Communication Tool Between PfP Nations in Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness Prepared by PIMS Program e-mail:[email protected] http://www.pims.org
Abstract. PIMS support for PfP nations has been evolving for more than ten years. Originally, the efforts were primarily focused on providing connectivity and computer equipment, as well as supporting various events. But over the past three years PIMS has additionally been developing and implementing tools for better information sharing, employing Internet based concepts and technologies Keywords: PIMS, communication, innovative technologies, communities of interest.
Introduction PIMS, which stands for Partnership for Peace Information Management System, designs, integrates, and provides innovative technologies and services to facilitate collaboration and strengthen relationships in the Euro-Atlantic and Partnership for Peace (PfP) community. PIMS is people-centric and strives to increase participant interaction and interoperability so that the community can cooperate fully on priority areas such a Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP), Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), Civil Emergency Planning, Peacekeeping Operations and others.
1. PIMS Role in the PfP Community For over a decade, PIMS has provided a secure distributed Intranet to link PfP Partners with US and NATO Colleagues. A specific focus is to build partner capacity related to technology while focusing on priority topics such as Defence Institution Building, Defence Reform, and Response to Terrorism. PIMS designs and delivers technical solutions with the aim of increasing partner interoperability, integration, efficiency and transparency in order to prepare PfP partners for future coalition operations. This capability reaches 'beyond desktop' to include hardware, software, peripherals, satellite bandwidth/local ISP rental, as well as the logistics, IT support, network administration to keep the network functioning. Additionally, PIMS extends these capabilities to the site of interoperability exercises and conferences so that they function efficiently and participants reap the most benefit.
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In November 2004 the European Office of SPAWAR System Charleston was selected by OSD to take over the management of PIMS due to their technical competency and experience in such projects. Since then, the technical branch upgraded the Internet-based collaborative and communications capabilities available to PfP Partners and Exercises. Now, through the PIMS Members, the PfP Training Centres, PfP Consortium and other powered-by-PIMS websites, communities of interest can easily engage in discussion on priority topics, harmonize policies and procedures, and search for expertise in password protected environments PIMS seeks cost-effective solutions wherever possible. As local connectivity becomes more reliable, PIMS Network Technicians and In-Country Coordinators adjust the network configurations to maintain a good level of connectivity. These collaborative environments assist participants to share and capture knowledge that can be tagged and searched in ways not previously possible. Through this collaborative platform participants have access to integrated instant-messaging clients, voice-calling and can collaborate on projects through blogs and threaded discussions. Essentially, PIMS is a multinational social network, a community of practice, for exchanging information on the security cooperation programmes of the members involved, as the aim of PIMS is 'to coordinate the efforts' offering assistance and with the countries implementing their IPAPs and potential MAPs. PIMS acts as a communication tool between PfP nations as well through the following methods: 1. 2.
3.
To meet in person at different events (workshops, conferences, exercises) To keep in touch by other means : PIMS Members Website, exchanging email (we offer the benefits of effective email, cheap, fast with ability to reach many people almost instantly), sending and receiving each other documents. Working groups where members can consolidate and keep track of the conversations. With these working groups, there is an opportunity to build upon the knowledge of previous meetings, instead of reinventing the wheel each time.
2. “Many-to-Many” Communication versus to “One-to-One” and/or “One-toMany” Communication PIMS websites act as a “Marketplace” or “Common Virtual Office” for the PfP community. Participants keep in touch with others through the contact directory, find upcoming events, and consult reference pages on NATO/PfP Cooperative Topics and a Glossary of terms. Instead of communication “One-to-One” and/or “One-to-Many” PIMS sites offer the option of “Many-to-Many “communication. The early Internet applications of e-mail, FTP and Telnet are characterized as 'one-to-one,' because they are primarily communication means from one individual (or computer) to another. The benefits are that this kind communication is relatively cheap and it’s easy to reach a number of people quickly. But, these methods have limitations. People are inundated and overwhelmed by email. Email chains create 'inbox spam', and also with the entry and exit of members of the group, it's difficult to know who should be part of the email announcement. When People exit the group their background knowledge (mostly stored in their Inbox) goes with them. Books, printing press, TV tower are examples of “One-to-Many” communication.
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In “Many-to-Many” communication environments people are able to both contribute and receive information. As a member of PIMS supported sites, one can start an instant messaging session, use a multi-lingual chat aid, and post a comment, share information on the topic of interest. Users are there to talk with each other. These tools facilitate communication and interoperability. For its NATO/PfP audience, PIMS provides technology that enables communication and collaboration in new ways. PIMS capabilities are manifested primarily in the form of Internet-based applications that enable groups of people to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. These password-protected environments differ from static website where one webmaster is responsible for posting content. Instead, on a PIMS instance, the participants themselves are the primary content creators. The members are enabled, through the tools, to publish their conversations and communications among small teams or entire communities. The overall goal of the PIMS Members site is to be the electronic manifestation of the human social network and assist in day-to-day working life, which is making these bilateral/multilateral processes work more smoothly and effectively.
3. Communities of Interest (COI) and/or Online Working Groups PIMS Members Website hosts Communities of Interest (COIs), mostly called in IT terminology “Online Working Groups”, on priority topics critical to NATO-PfP Interoperability and Partner Capacity Building. PIMS sites integrate the best of 'Web 2.0' technology, to provide opportunities for communication online in a 'need to share' environment. PfP Partner and NATO Practitioners and topic Subject-Matter Experts are encouraged to take part in interactive discussions about the NATO Cooperative topics. One may browse the listing of communities and subscribe to groups of interest. Participants can subscribe to topics of interest relating to the PfP Community, NATO, CMEP papers and events. PIMS online environments like members.pims.org, the PfP Consortium Portal, or exercise instances such as Combined Endeavor and RESCUER, are tailored for the specific group of people, yet all these sites enable the participants of each group to post and 'pull' data from the site that makes it useful to their everyday lives. For example, working groups that may have traditionally communicated only on email, now have an opportunity to post presentations, reports, audio and video files to the site for sharing. Then, others can begin conversations in a 'threaded discussion' that displays the discussion for future reference. The instances offer improved asynchronous communication, i.e. exchanges that do not require the parties to be present at the same time. But, these online sites also have real-time communication tools embedded into the software. For example, if you see a colleague present online, you can start a web-based instant-message conversation. PIMS sites have a new Multi-Lingual Chat capability that does basic translations that can assist with conversations in an international environment (Figure 1).
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PIMS Program / PIMS as a Communication Tool
Figure1: Multi-lingual Chat concept The online working groups are set up to be permissions-based, meaning that what you see on the website is in accord with the groups to which you belong. The groups are “closed”, meaning that new members must be approved by a designated administrator. These groups reside among other PIMS Members working groups, but are more controlled than regular communities of interest. PIMS technicians assist the Chairperson and members with user questions, and account management issues. This site is a “two way street.” It does 'broadcast' information as many websites do, but it should be thought of as a messaging platform, discussion area as well. An individual can also start their own discussion, make a comment, or pose a question in response to someone else. These online conversations are saved for others to see and take part in.
4. In Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness PIMS is being used extensively for information management, civil military emergency planning, and support for the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center, a NATO activity conducted in collaboration with donor nations. PIMS supports the Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP) initiative for several years, through the technical and personnel support of the CMEP events, and, recently with the new, powered by PIMS, CMEP website (https://cmep.pims.org). Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP) is the US Department of Defense term for a program to encourage the agencies responsible for Civil Emergency Planning (CEP) in each Partner nation, and their military counterparts, to cooperate in sustained information exchange for emergency preparedness and crisis management. At the moment, the PIMS staff is building the CMEP online library (archive), where the content related to all these events can be found; as one of the CMEP event participants once said: 'Here you can find the whole wisdom of CMEP through the years'. Before creating the software, the design team developed a point of view of knowledge that provided a framework to work:
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• • • • •
Knowledge is both a “good” and a “flow”; Knowledge is dynamic and unpredictable; People are the source of Knowledge; Information transactions form basis of understanding Knowledge; The higher the number of transactions and participants in exchange the more valuable the model (Moore's law); • Intelligence about transactions informs where Knowledge lives; • Focus on derivative models for Knowledge trend identification; and • Interoperability and Extensibility of Knowledge interactions are framework. The goal is to develop a modular transactional framework.. a 'Network of Networks' (Figure 2).
Figure2: Modular transactional framework.concept
The software developers kept six design rules in mind when designing the platform architecture: • Be Modular - Evolving and Emerging Modular design • Simplify! • Embrace Diversity • Be Standards Driven & Self Descriptive • Embrace and Extend • Post and Smart Pull
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PIMS Program / PIMS as a Communication Tool
PIMS end-to-end event-support capabilities are designed to increase participant interaction so that groups can work together before, during and after a simulated disaster, in the case of Civil Emergency Preparedness. End-to-end means that PIMS provides a full range of capabilities and services including comprehensive connectivity, event websites, and IT experts to train and assist planners and participants. PIMS capabilities support the entire event life cycle - from concept development to afteraction support. Most websites are used year after year, building an online knowledge and lessons learned repository on the recurring event.
5. Conclusions PIMS websites provide a rich and collaborative online experience that is designed to easily integrate with the way people work already. PIMS-powered environments utilize innovative technologies that function behind a user-friendly interface. These collaborative websites strive to increase the interactivity of the users and allow them to find and create information ready to be shared among them. With instant messaging, chat, voice, and video conferencing, PIMS users can search, find, and contact potential partners and colleagues. With blogs and distributed web publishing, PIMS users can share their information with others, add their expertise to topics, and collaborate with working group colleagues – all in real time. PIMS collaborative sites offer a network platform for disaster management collaborative messaging and communications capability to support nations in their efforts to coordinate the disaster management and humanitarian emergency response, civil emergency planning, and to provide GIS tools and other resources that aid in a nation's overall capability to effectively respond to natural and man-made environmental disasters.
References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
PIMS Members website https://members.pims.org CMEP PIMS website https://cmep.pims.org Public PIMS site http://www.pims.org SPAWARMNIS collaborative environment https://mnis.spawaeurope.net WIKIPEDIA http://www.wikipedia.org
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-247
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Licensing of Hazardous Industries and Public Participation in the Ukraine Tetyana BODNARCHUK State Ecological Inspection, Lviv Region Abstract. In Ukraine goals of industrial development should correspond to the strategy of technological and ecological safety on the basis of sustainable development. This article deals with the mechanisms of technological emergency management and licensing of environmentally hazardous branches of industry in Ukraine, and the public impact on environmental policy. Keywords. Technological safety, licensing, regulation, emergencies
Background In times of establishing new types of economic relations, it is important to find out a model of industrial development that provides economic growth and takes into account environmental needs. Insofar as there is no integral system for economic and ecological assessment that is suitable for modern industrial relations, there is a need for methodological developments and concrete proposals, especially for chemical and oil industries. Due to a number of negative and positive factors, social and economic consequences of transformation towards market relations are very contradictory. For example, structural changes in Ukrainian industry go together with a sharp decline in production and a high rate of reduction of hazardous discharges, especially in chemical and oil industries. Some large enterprises are technically outdated, and are therefore especially dangerous for the environment, or have totally stopped production. There is trend to move towards less polluting industries, although this is not due to technical, technological and ecological transitions in the industry. At the same time economic crises led to incredible reductions in expenditure to compensate the economic damage. So the issue of environmentally-friendly industry became especially urgent. In times of structural changes such transition should be based on the main principles of sustainable development. Scientific research in Ukraine, and outside, concerns forms and methods of management for environmentally hazardous companies. However, the issues of environmental impact assessment of hazardous enterprises in Ukraine and its regions at the stage of transformational structural changes are not studied to the full extent. 1. Research Goals and Tasks The goal of the research is to assess the impact of institutional, structural, regional and market changes on development of environmentally dangerous industries and to analyse the conditions of licensing in Ukraine.
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According to this goal the tasks are as follows: • • • • • •
To analyse structural changes in Ukrainian industry, the state and tendencies of development of the chemical and oil industry; To identify modern environmental and economic problems related to the impact of industry on the environment and their regional features; To identify external impacts and ecological risks from environmentally dangerous industries; To generalise the main trends of dangerous impacts on the environment from ecologically dangerous industries; To analyse the system of licensing dangerous types of industry in Ukraine; and To analyse the influence of public opinion on environmental decision-making in Ukraine.
2. Economic and Environmental Problems of Dangerous Operations in Ukraine Ukrainian industry, as currently located, has severe economic and ecological problems, leading to significant losses due to the deterioration of environmental quality, when compared with normal values, due to external impacts. Therefore, according to the adopted classifications, the majority of Ukrainian regions are considered as zones of environmental catastrophes. This is the case for Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizzhya, Donetsk and Odessa regions. However, the territorial structure of the chemical industry of Ukraine has been changed. First of all this is the case for regions where environmentally hazardous industries were the most developed. The share of chemical industry in the Dnipropetrovsk region almost doubled (from 9.5% in 1990 to 17.4% in 2007), even more so in the Kyiv region (including Kyiv city) where it was 2.4 times (from 8.9 to 21.2%). From 1994 the chemical industry in the Kyiv region stabilised; starting from 1996, oil and pharmaceutical industries started to grow. It is proven that the high concentration of chemical industry in the Kyiv region due to the increased growth of chemical and oil chemical potential of Ukraine in 1960–1980 was one of the most important causes of the regional environmental crisis. Its features are the effect of synergy of small but very toxic doses of chemical substances with radioactive pollution, which causes irreversible harm to the environment and people’s health. Detailed analysis of primary statistical documents for the majority of environmental hazardous chemical enterprises of the region showed that the total decrease in production due to the transformation of Ukrainian economy was 51%, the reduction of hazardous substance emissions reduced by 56%. For the Kyiv region, these figures are 37% and 51% respectively or, in absolute figures, 140,000 tons, out of which 9,000 tons (or 80%) is due to chemical and oil industry. However, despite the significant reduction in emissions due to the closure of the especially hazardous operations (Table 1), their technological impact, according to national and international norms, can be characterised as an internal regional environmental catastrophe. Since 1996 the chemical industry has grown annually by 3.5%, and so there is a threat for further deterioration of the environment. There is a need to develop a methodology for assessing the regional environmental state reflecting the process of restructuring of industry as a whole, and especially the chemical and oil industry. The state
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should control the process of structural change and economic growth in the chemical industry using environmental and economic assessment of such processes and mechanisms for compensation of the costs of environmental protection. Firstly, the methodology of such assessment should be improved; secondly, complex method of cost compensation should be developed. This mechanism should reflect peculiarities of the transition period, the establishment of new market relations and the need for strengthening the regulating role of the state in environmental protection. Using such an approach to economic development, Ukraine will be capable of implementing the main principles of the concept of sustainable development. On the basis of conducted research, there is a need to improve the methodology for the assessment of hazardous impacts of the chemical and oil industry on the environment because: •
•
There is no assessment of complex (integrated) hazardous impacts of industrial enterprises and a methodological approach to their synergistic impact – when the integrated impact is more environmentally hazardous than the simple sum of the individual values of the impacts of all the enterprises, which for each individual enterprise do not exceed significantly the maximum allowable concentrations; A system of statistical reporting (ecological monitoring) in Ukraine does not correspond to international requirements for complex analysis and the integrated assessment of hazardous impact on the environment.
One of the main tasks of state policy in the field of technological safety and civic protection for the future, described in “Strategy of Economic and Social Development for 2000–2004” and Action Plan of the government, approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, is to establish: reliable guarantees for the safe life of the people; technological safety; to prevent emergencies at specially hazardous enterprises; and to reach high norms and standards of protection of population and area from natural and technical emergencies. To implement these tasks, the country should improve the mechanism of technological emergency management and develop relevant legislation.
3. Natural and Technological Safety of Ukraine The present level of natural and technological safety of Ukraine is characterised by technological overloads on the environment. Regions with an excessive industrial load are the zones with very high risks of emergencies. These risks are constantly growing due to an increase in the percentage of outdated technologies and equipment, and a reduction in the speed of restoration and modernization of production processes. Depreciation of plant in all sectors of the Ukrainian economy is around 50%. Potentially hazardous industries form a large part in the structure of the national economy – they produce around 1/3 of all production. In conditions of the market economy, in order to ensure proper safety of citizens and the state in case of emergencies, the country should use economic instruments of emergency management at all levels. However, at present, such mechanisms are not systematised and their efficiency and integrated impact on risk levels in the region is not assessed. Studies of national and international experience of development and the use of economic instruments to prevent natural and technological hazards, show that there are
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Table 1. Economic mechanisms for technological emergency management Type of mechanism
Characteristics of the mechanism
1
Economic responsibility
Fines for exceeding allowable levels of risks (quotas) or payments for the levels of risk
2
Environmental fund and mechanism for budget funding
Direct funding of activities to reduce risks from state budget or environmental or other funds. As a rule they are mechanisms of fund distribution according to priorities. Some cases when enterprises are not able to cover the expenditure to reduce the level of technological risk are envisaged
3
Mechanism to establish the reserve of financial, labour and material resources
Establishment and use of the reserves of material resources to cover the consequences of the emergency (that is, reserves of the state, local authorities, organizations and enterprises). Volumes of reserves are established by taking into account a prognosis of the type and scale of emergency, and the scope of work to cover its potential consequences
4
Mechanism for stimulating an increase in the level of safety (preferential taxation, credits)
Preferential credits or preferential taxation if environmentally safe technologies are used. Stimuli are created if the level of taxes depends on the level of risk of emergency and if it increased in case of exceeding of the norms
5
Mechanism for redistribution of the risk and a mechanism of insurance
Redistribution of losses due to an emergency between insurers, in case of significant losses when it is hard for one enterprise to compensate them
different economic mechanisms for emergency management (Table 1). They include first of all: •
•
•
State standards: the main goal of these is to identify norms to prevent emergencies and to avoid losses. Here different types of standards (all-state or per branch of industry) can be used as well as construction norms and rules (Fig. 1). Safety standards are based on the norms of an allowable level of risk for people and the environment; the level of possibility for losing unique natural features; prohibition on living in dangerous zones and prohibition of dangerous works and activities in the region; temporary limitation or stopping of operations of potentially hazardous enterprises; ensuring population safety in case of emergency; economic sanctions towards industrial activities in case of emergencies and improper operations; preparation and further training of staff. Regulation: power to develop and approve safety norms, rules and requirements. The regulation includes technological criteria and norms for pollution to ensure environmental safety by main factors as well as requirements concerning obtaining licences for all types of activities using hazardous technologies; Safety management for potentially hazardous enterprises: includes the issuing of permits (licensing) for production activities; the establishment of requirements and limits, frameworks and conditions of operation for such enterprises (by regulation); state control on compliance with requirements and conditions stated in the licenses of the hazardous enterprises.
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State Regulation of standards to prevent emergencies
Listing of industrial standards identifying the level of technological safety
Taking into account the requirements of foreign countries for safety of production – it is important during license issuing for construction of new enterprises and further development of existing ones
Complex programme of standardistion and increase of technological safety (especially for potentially hazardous enterprises)
Figure 1. Directions of state regulation of standards.
Table 2. Functions of Insurance Function of insurance
Characteristics of the function of insurance
Risk compensation
Compensation by money to affected bodies and citizens. Possibility to finance by legal entities for potential losses by means of establishment of their own funds in the form of insurance companies. The Ministry of Emergencies is the main coordinator in the field of risk insurance services for all enterprises.
Prevention
Introduction of obligatory insurance for responsibility by owners of especially dangerous objects for losses caused, as well as property insurance of such enterprises using special conditions
Savings
Related to income, because enterprises can use additionally earned money for activities to prevent emergency
Control
Right of the founder of the insurance fund to control use of the money according to the goals.
From an institutional point of view in the field of emergency prevention there are the following means of regulations: • • • •
ecological requirements for several types of economic activities (industrial production, agriculture, land reclamation, energy sector, construction, military sector); requirements to protect and restore the environment (protection of air, water, flora and fauna, soils from pollution); listing of potentially dangerous enterprises and hazardous activities, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine; insurance, with efficiency based on quality of preparation of external data about the sources of danger, quality of assessment and risk analysis and, most of all, methods and mechanisms of risk management for potential hazardous enterprises (Table 2).
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Development of insurance of material interests of enterprises and citizens is an integral element of economic reforms, aimed at forming a socially oriented market economy in Ukraine. Besides the fact that insurance reduces the load on the expenditure part of the budget, and reduces losses in case of emergencies, it plays two more important functions: 1.
2.
Insurance allows successful solutions for the issue of social provision, as far as it is the element of social system of the state. Each one has a right to get income, not only in form of state aid but also as insurance; Insurance is the mechanism of investment in the economy. In developed countries, insurance due to its peculiarities and functions in the society belongs to a strategic sector of economy.
One of the important means of overcoming financial difficulties is to introduce state privileges for the companies in this field. For potentially hazardous operating enterprises, there is the system of discounts from this sum of insurance for protective measures. Foreign experience shows that such discounts due to savings for insurance premiums pay off such measures over 6 years, reducing the possibility of danger to a minimum [3]. So it brings profit for the enterprise as well as for the insurer. If to stimulate activities of insurance companies in the field of potentially dangerous bodies, significant savings can be made which can be used to cover losses from technological emergencies, so as a result the general level of social safety is increased. It is worth of mentioning that the large scale introduction of insurance of potentially hazardous enterprises in Ukraine is mostly a task for the future. At the same time, such economic mechanisms cannot work without proper legislation. It is important to study the impact of a system of such mechanisms at the level of technological and environmental safety in the region. To increase it, the country should activate a system of ecological certification. Further, it is important to develop it together with the licensing of potentially hazardous enterprises, ecological audits, and obligatory insurance. Emergency management should cover all problems related to emergencies, including the stages of their prognosis, prevention and preparation for operation in case of emergencies, as well as elimination of their consequences. Special means of direct emergency management should be considered from the point of view of the operational regimes for the management system: − − −
everyday activities (stationary functioning); increased readiness (active preparation and implementation of preventative activities); post-emergency – elimination of consequences of emergency.
For the first regime, namely “everyday activities”, it is typical not to have information about the clear threats of emergencies. Management systems start to react in an emergency by adopting emergency and radical activities. In case of emergencies the following actions are taken: • •
identification of the situation, preparation of the necessary maps, study of the causes of emergencies, and safety ensuring; prognosis of emergency development, modelling the dynamics of its development and assessment of the resources (materials, financial, labour etc.) for its elimination, and assessment of the need to evacuate the population;
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• •
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development and analysis of the strategies to liquidate an emergency and its consequences, split of the area into zones and assignment of the staff for each zone, identification of the necessary operative brigades and their composition, distribution of the brigades, organization of the patrol, and evacuation; planning and operational management of the works organisations by identified directions, identification of the priority works, assignment of those responsible for their implementation, and distribution of the limited resources; rescuing people, emergency construction works and other urgent works by such directions: reconnaissance, identification of victims, provision of urgent medical aid, conduct fire extinguishing, chemical and other activities, organisation of accommodation and temporary infrastructure, organisation of consumer services, means of transport etc.
The following procedures of emergency management are used most recently: environmental impact assessment, plan of liquidation of emergencies, safety standards in case of emergencies (state standard ДСТУ 3891-99 “Safety in Case of emergencies. Terms and Definitions of the Main Notions”, state standard ДСТУ 3900-99 “Safety in Case of Emergencies, Main Notions” state standard ДСТУ 3970-2000 “Safety in case of Emergencies. Emergencies on areas of water. Terms and Notions”). Generally speaking, environmental impact assessment (EIA) includes assessment of possible consequences of any types of activities on the environment. Practice shows that the standard procedure of EIA is expertise of large enterprises, using approved “Methodology of Ecological and Economical Assessment of the Projects”, developed by the Council of Productive Forces of Ukraine. Public evaluation of the project is an important part of EIA. Therefore, the process of EIA becomes a procedure for seeking a compromise, where the actors are the entrepreneur (initiator of the project), the investor (if a bank gives credit), the project implementer, the local administration, and population. Practice shows the increased role of ecological expertise in projects for the construction and operation of enterprises. Here the expertise is done in case of large enterprises from the point of view of emergency prevention and possible ways of their operation. Namely, such decisions and projects can include plans to reconstruct branches of the economy, projects for utilisation and processing of radioactive and toxic waste, programmes for the reliable function of basic assets of industry and construction, and environmental protection in the case of emergency for pipe transport. Therefore, the growth of exploitation of natural resources in industry and lack of funding, together with an increase in the share of outdated technologies and equipment, increase the risk of technological catastrophes. Due to this, there is a need to develop directions to improve the system for managing the protection of the population and the environment in the region. It is important to study economic mechanisms for emergency management (such as economic responsibility, funds and mechanism of budget funding, reserves of resources, stimulating increases in the level of safety, redistribution of risk and insurance, and situational management), especially for the regions with a large industrial potential. Assessment of the risks of technological and natural emergencies includes first of all cause-effect analysis, identification of the time of their activation and the amount of resultant losses. In order to implement these tasks, scientific analysis of economic, socio-economic and demographic factors, defining social development and their inter-
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relations, is conducted. In this case the criteria are GDP, quality of life of people, life expectancy (or losses in terms of life duration). Social protection of the population from the consequences of emergencies covers many issues at all management levels. The mechanism for this protection is integrated and dynamic, and it should take into account scales of consequences of the emergency, the material state of the affected population and other components.
4. Licensing and Regulation The law of Ukraine “on licensing of some types of economic activities” defines types of economic activities which should be licensed, establishes the state control in the field of licensing, responsibility of management agents and licensing bodies for violation of legislation in the field of licensing. A licence is a state document giving the right to the licence holder to conduct the type of economic activity mentioned in the licence during the stated period in case of compliance with licensing conditions, A licence is the only permit-type of document which gives the right to do a specific type of economic activity, which should be limited according the legislation. The licensing authority is the executive authority, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine or specially authorized executive authority of Rada for licensing of some types of economic activity. The main principles of state policy in the field of licensing is ensuring; the equity of rights, legal interests of all management agents; protection of rights, legal interests, life and health of the population; environmental protection and state safety; introduction of the common order of licensing of economic activity of the territory of Ukraine; establishment of the general list of the types of economic activities, which should be licensed. Licensing cannot be used to limit competition in the field of economics. The agents of the state policy in the field of licensing are the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, specially authorized body for licensing, executive authorities, appointed by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, empowered to license some types of economic activities. Licence conditions form a legal act, where qualification, organizational, technological and other requirements on how to conduct a type of economic activity are stated. The management agent should organize his activity, if it should be licensed, according to the established conditions for this type of activity licence. Licence conditions for types of economic activity, where special knowledge is needed, include qualification requirements to staff – legal entities and (or) people – private entrepreneurs. In cases where special requirements for premises, equipment and other technical means are needed to conduct this type of economic activity, such requirements are included in the licensing conditions. Licence conditions and changes to licence conditions should be made public in an order, which is established by the law, and they come into force 10 days after the date of state registration of the law, unless it includes a later date. In order to get the licence, the management agent who plans to conduct some type of economic activity that needs to be licensed, should appeal personally, or via authorized organization or person, to the relevant licensing body with a statement written in
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accord with the provided sample concerning the issuing of a licence. In the statement for issuance of a licence the following data should be mentioned: 1. 2. 3. 4.
information about the management agent; title, location, bank information, ID code – for legal entity; surname, name, passport data (passport number, who and when issued, place of living), ID of tax payer and other payments – for physical agent; type of economic activity (fully or partly) for which the applicant wants to get license.
If the applicant has branches, or other separate sub-divisions, which will arrange economic activity on the basis of obtained license, he should mention their location in the statement. Out of all types of economic activity which should be licensed, only operations in the field of hazardous waste treatment are environmentally dangerous. The company which has such types of waste should have a separate licence for each type of waste. The applicant should attach a copy of the state registration of the entrepreneur or a copy of the document about inclusion in the General state register of enterprises and organisations of Ukraine, certified by notary or the body which issued the original document. The licensing authority decides whether or not to issue the licence with terms, not more than 10 working days after the date of the statement about issuing of the licence and documents, attached to the statement, that is if another term of licence issuance for some types of activities is not envisaged by a special law regulating relations in some fuels of economic management. Notification about the decision concerning the licence is issued to the applicant in written form within 3 working days of the date of the relevant decision-making. In the case of a negative decision, the reasons for this should be stated. For the types of economic activities related to use of limited resources, in order to use those limited resources effectively and to promote the use of modern technologies and equipment, open competition between applicants is conducted and license is issued based only on results of the competition. Licensing authorities in Ukraine use standard licences based on a template approved by the Cabinet of Ministers. The licence templates are strictly reported and have a serial number. A licence includes: • • • • • • • • •
title of the licensing authority issuing the licence; type of economic activity for which the licence is issued; title of legal entity, surname and name of the person/individual entrepreneur; ID code of legal entity or ID of the person – tax payer; location of the legal entity or place of residence of the person/ individual entrepreneur; date of licence issue and number of the decision about the issuance of the license; duration of the licence; position, surname and initials of the person, who signed the licence; date of issuance of the license.
The licence is signed by the head of the licensing authority or his deputy and certified by the stamp of this authority.
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The applicant should pay the amount of one untaxed minimum income of a citizen for the issuance of the copy of licence. This money goes to the state budget of Ukraine. The specially authorized authority for licensing keeps a General Licensing Register, containing the data of licence registers and ID of licensing authorities. Information in General Licensing Register and licensing registers is open. One has to pay for their use, and the money goes to the state budget of Ukraine. Management agents, who act without licence, must pay fines in amounts stated by law. The fines go to the state budget of Ukraine. A decision about fines is taken by the authority which, according to the current legislation, should control the presence of licence.
5. Ecological Audit, Ecological Programmes and Insurance Ecological audit in Ukraine is a type of scientific and practical activity of specially authorized state authorities, ecological expert organizations and public groups, based on inter-institutional ecological study, analysis and assessment of future and existing enterprises, implementation of which can negatively affect the state of environment. It is aimed to prepare a conclusion on whether planned or conducted activities conform to norms and the requirements of environmental legislation, rational use and restoration of natural resources, thus ensuring ecological safety. According to the Article 4 of Law of Ukraine “On Ecological expertise” from 09.02.95, the goal of environmental expertise is to prevent negative impacts from human activities on the state of the environment and people’s health, as well as assessment of the level of ecological safety for economic activity and the ecological situation at some areas. Ecological programmes are developed in order to organise and co-ordinate activities to protect the environment, provide ecological safety, and rational use and restoration of natural resources. The examples of ecological programmes include the Programme of Establishment of a national ecological network of Ukraine in 2000–2015, approved by the Law of Ukraine on 21.09.00; Programme of prevention and reaction to technological and natural emergencies for 2000–2005, approved by the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on 22.08.00; All-state programme of toxic waste treatment, approved by the Law of Ukraine on 14.09.00; Programme of search and sterilization of remaining chemical weapons sunk in the marine economic zone of Ukraine for 1997–2002, approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on 25.11.96. It is worth of mentioning that the total negative impact of technological emergencies and catastrophes in Ukraine at present is clearly growing. This can be explained first of all by the active growth in the volumes of production, unclear economic instrument of state regulation in the field of prevention and elimination of negative technological impacts on environment and the absence of market insurance ecological services. One of the ways to solve the above-mentioned problem is to introduce environmental insurance. This is the component of a financial mechanism that is aimed at compensating damage done to the lives and health of people, as well as losses to the property of a legal entity exclusively on a market basis using private capital. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine developed the draft law of Ukraine “On Ecological insur-
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ance”. This draft regulates relations in the field of ecological insurance and is aimed at compensating for damage done to people and legal entities due to emergency pollution of environment. Ecological insurance will become obligatory. Activities of enterprises, institutional bodies and organizations, which can be environmentally hazardous and are related to emergency pollution of environment, should be insured.
6. Public Participation in the Resolution of Environmental Problems Public participation in environmental decision-making is required for realising citizens’ rights for participation in state governance, stated in Article 38 of Ukrainian Constitution and for protecting against unlimited power of authorities and for avoiding their abuse of the ecological and attached rights of the population. National legislation of Ukraine envisages functions of environmental management by citizens and their unions. In many cases it regulates public participation in the process of environmental management in a manner wider than it is required by international norms, namely, Article 9 of the law of Ukraine “On Environmental Protection” which states the ecological rights of Ukrainian citizens. Chapter IV of this law “Competence of the Environmental Authorities” has Article 21 “Competence of public organizations in the field of environmental protection”, where the rights of public environmental organizations are described. On the basis of the analysis of legislation concerning public participation in environmental decision-making, one can identify several types of public participation: • • • •
Influence on the formation of ecological policy at different levels and participation in decision-making; Public environmental monitoring; Initiation and implementation of ecological audit; Implementation of public ecological control.
Partly these rights are envisaged directly in environmental legislation, partly in other legal acts and it is a form of implementation of the general rights of citizens. Ecological rights of citizens are protected by control over the state of environment. State control is done by local radas and their executive bodies, Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine, their bodies and other specially authorized state authorities. Public control is done by public inspections according to Regulations on public environmental inspectors, approved by the decree of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of Ukraine on 27.02.02, according to which public control in the field of environment is done by public environmental inspectors. Authorities, belonging to the Ministry of Environment organize and co-ordinate activities of public inspectors. Modern practice shows that solving environmental problems at the local level by means of mobilization of public sources is the most effective instrument for improving the ecological situation in general. At the same time, public representatives are often not environmental specialists, so a lot of different factors can influence their position. Such situations should be solved by legislation. State officials, due to objective factors, have often limited capacities to react in time on any violation of environmental legislation. Citizens can fully compensate for
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this when either at work or during holidays they find out any violation of environmental legislation, namely sources of pollution or their consequences (such as oil spots or garbage), illegal actions of some people (such as the unauthorized use of nature or violation of the rules of behaviour in nature). As a rule, this is done by making observations concerning the state of environment as well as by some indicator of flora and fauna. Public ecological monitoring can be also organised. In the U.S. there is a movement of so-called “river pedestrians”, namely, people who voluntarily walk along rivers and streams in order to identify any companies discharging wastewater into rivers. They have helped to identify all company-pollutants and to react to this from the point of view of the state authorities. Similar activities are done by NGOs in Ukraine. The main use of such information is to transfer it to environmental authorities to conduct actions to stop violations of environmental legislation. The law of Ukraine “On Ecological Expertise” (or audit) (Articles 10 and 11) states that ecological audit client should inform, via the media, about conducting ecological audits in a special Statement about the ecological consequences of activities of enterprises, which can possibly have a negative impact on the environment in case of construction or operation. After completion of the ecological audit, environmental expert bodies publish their conclusions via the media. In order to take into account of public opinion, bodies of ecological audits conduct public hearings or open meetings. Public participation in the process of ecological audits can be carried out by means of presentations for media, written comments, proposals and recommendations, inclusion of NGOs representatives into the expert commissions and groups to conduct ecological audits. Preparation of conclusions of ecological audits and decision-making concerning further implementation (use, operation etc.) of the object of the ecological audit is done taking into account public opinion. At the same time, it is worth mentioning that time places new requirements on the role of ecological audit as a function of ecological management. Especially the law “On Ecological Expertise” states terms of implementation of state ecological audit, particularly the right to get the information needed for implementing ecological expertise, on request. Experts of public ecological audits dos not have such rights but according to “On Ecological Expertise” (article 29) he has all the obligations of an expert to conduct ecological audits. They include the obligation to provide complex, objective, good quality and effective implementation of ecological audits, which is impossible if there are none of the needed materials Unfortunately, there are no financial means in Ukraine to stimulate people whose activity helped to stop ecological violations, to prosecute the guilty and provide damage compensation due to breaches of the law. Activating a public ecological movement caused some changes in citizen’s attitude and authorities to environmental problems. So citizens and their unions more actively become agents of ecological management and, most often, ecological audits concern environmental aspects of economic activities, because such activities can cause negative impacts on the environment. In conditions of democratisation and ‘ecologisation’ of social processes, the public gets more and more possibilities to participate in ecological management and actively realises them, both alone and in partnership with state environmental and industrial authorities. Of course, this effective direction of public activities should have relevant legal background.
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7. Conclusions The present structure of the Ukrainian economy is such that it constantly leads to pollution of the environment. According to the adopted classification, the majority of Ukrainian regions are considered as zones of ecological disaster. The urgent problem is to decrease negative impacts on the environment, first of all from the chemical and oil industry. In order to solve it effectively, it is important to conduct environmental and ecological assessments of their impacts, which should take into account the damage done by operators’ activities. Analysis of the methodology and methodological approaches to the assessment of the impacts of the chemical and oil industries on the environment show that they do not reflect properly the modern state because environmental problems worsen in relation to the transition in the economy and the consequences of Chornobyl catastrophe. Of course, they should be improved, taking into account the present situation. The introduction of an improved methodology for research, taking into account structural changes due to market transformations in industry, will show significant changes in the dynamics of the development and regional location of environmentally hazardous industries. The main fact is that during 1990–2007 the structure of industrial production has been changed and the share of oil-energy and natural resources increased correspondingly from 3.4% to 22.8% and from 13.3% to 21.3% in Kyiv, and from 10.2% to 31.7% and from 24.7% till 35% in the Kyiv region (in Ukraine the increases are from 8.9% to 28% and from 23.3% to 34.3%). In the strategy for reforming, the economy and ecology should be considered in close interaction. So while solving problems of environmental protection, one should more often use relevant market relations with economic and legal instruments as well as administrative ones, such as ecological certification, audits, licensing, tax on products that pollute the environment in one of the periods of their life cycles, market permits, ecological insurance, subsidies etc. The use of such instruments will significantly stimulate a decrease in environmental damage, the use of new environmentally-clean technologies and the production of environmentally clean production. So it stimulates innovative processes of development in the field of the chemical industry. The system of environmental and legal relations should be oriented towards international standards as much as possible, especially the system of ecological management and audit of industrial activities. The introduction of this system will take Ukraine closer to world standards of ecological safety, which is one the main factors for further development in the world community.
References [1] ЗУ “Про ліцензування певних видів господарської діяльності” N 1775-III від 1 червня 2000 року м. Київ (1775-14). [2] Постанова Кабінету Міністрів України “Про затвердження Порядку формування, ведення і користування відомостями ліцензійного реєстру та подання їх до Єдиного ліцензійного реєстру” від 8 листопада 2000 р. N 1658 м.Київ. [3] Выморкова Н. Возможности решения экологических проблем в странах содружества // Экономист. – 2001. – № 4. – С. 78-81. [4] Дорогунцов С., Федорищева А. Государственное регулирование техногенно-екологической безопасности в регионах Украины // Экономика Украины. – 2002. – № 4. – С. 70-77. [5] Ларионов Г. А. Общественный экологический контроль // Государство и право. – 1996. – № 2. – С. 65.
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[6] Екологічні права громадян: як їх захистити за допомогою закону / Благод. фонд “ЕкоправоЛьвів”: Центр громадської екологічної адвокатури “Правнича ініціатива” для центр. та схід. Європи; Регіон. екол. центр для центр. та схід. Європи. – К.: Інформ. агентство “Эхо-Восток”, 1997. – с. 14. [7] Участие общественности в правовом регулировании воздействия на окружающую среду / Вильям Фатрел, Гровер Рен, Ан Пауерз и др.: пер. с англ. – Вашингтон: Ин-т законодательства окружающей среды, 1991. – с. 18.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-261
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Man-Made Disaster Prevention: The Role of Risk Assessment in Development Control D.L. BARRY, BE, FICE, MCIWM Director, DLB Environmental, Surrey UK [email protected]
Abstract. The risks to human and the environment from natural hazards and manmade sources of pollution can be minimised by effective land-use planning controls that takes due account of hazards sources and their links with potential receptors. These controls can be facilitated in the first instance by the use of vulnerability maps that relate to different environmental, social or physical aspects. The effective use of risk assessment techniques is a logical part of the development control process. Keywords. Risk assessment; vulnerability maps; development control
Introduction Controlling the creation of new development areas and features, whether they are for residential, commercial or infrastructural purposes, can help mitigate the potentially significant consequences from placing such developments too close to either natural and man-made hazard sources. While history cannot be changed in terms of the proximity of, for example, existing population centres and facilities to earthquake, mining or natural flooding zones, the use of basic risk assessment processes in land-use planning can help reduce the relevant risks to future development areas. These controls are becoming even more important in developing countries where there can be significant on-going changes in terms of the types of industries being developed, and in the range of new facilities for meeting increased socio-economic needs. These changes can, in many cases, also result in greater pressure to recycle old industrial sites and/or greatly expand urban zones. Some of these changes can exacerbate old problems and/or create new ones and, therefore, the resultant changes need to be managed effectively so that future potential disasters can be avoided, or at least minimised. Controls on new development should be applied in a positive way from national level down to local levels, depending on the strategic importance of the particular type of development. However, it can be difficult to create an integrated control process that properly recognises the balance that should be drawn between national and local needs in terms of environmental, social and economic factors. On the other hand, the increasing and effective use of environmental impact assessment techniques (which techniques embody the essential spirit of risk assessments) can enable the relevant
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regulators to minimise future risks by ensuring a sound understanding of the relevant hazards and the potential links with potentially sensitive receptors.
1. Historical Risks In addition to the well-established risks associated with many natural disaster sources (such as earthquakes, landslides or floods), there can also be other significant risks from former (and existing) industrial areas. Typical polluting industries, where the extent of consequential ground and groundwater contamination can often extend well beyond the property boundaries include: • • • • • •
Old military areas; Chemical/petrochemical plants; Metallurgical industries; Oil manufacturing industries; Waste disposal sites; and Mining facilities.
On the other hand, critically contaminating industries are not always large since some relatively small facilities can have a disproportionate polluting effects; for example, dry cleaning workshops and fuel service areas/garages in urban areas; and domestic fuel tanks in the countryside where they can overlie critical groundwater supplies. A particular additional risk concerns landfill gas generated from, for example, old municipal waste sites, the critical effects of which can be quite extensive spatially and can exist for many decades after waste disposal operations have ceased. Landfill gas, which principally comprises methane and carbon dioxide, differs in many ways from ‘normal’ ground contamination because of the following characteristics in particular: • • • • •
Acute risks of explosions; Omni-directional migration potential; Airborne, ground-borne and water-borne pathways; High perceived risk levels (usually >> actual risk level). Greater dynamics in on-going risk levels, temporal and spatial.
Thus, as with mines gas, landfill gas can migrate considerable distances from a source, aided by a back-pressure at source or high ground permeability, as well as atmospheric pressure variations. The gas can also be carried in groundwater in the dissolved phase and be released a result of reduced atmospheric pressure.
2. Hazard and Risk Assessments There is frequent confusion between ‘hazards’ and ‘risks’, even among professionals. In contrast, there is usually little or no confusion about the definition of a hazard. However, a common definition of risk is that it is a combination of: (i) the probability, or frequency, of occurrence of a defined hazard (e.g. exposure or instability); and (ii) the magnitude of the consequences to a specified ‘receptor’.
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Figure 1. Typical Conceptual site Model.
Therefore, when we say “It’s a risk” we mean (or should mean) that “Something specific could happen” such as a certain intensity of earthquake. In order to assess any risk it is first essential to understand: (i) the hazard and its characteristics; (ii) the sensitivity (or vulnerability) of the actual or potential ‘receptor’ or ‘target’; and (iii) the potential linkages between the hazard and receptor. Thus, a risk cannot be managed cost-effectively unless it is understood sufficiently. A preliminary risk assessment process usually has the following elements: − − − −
a desk study (including a review of existing information and data, and a site visit); development of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) showing potential ‘pollutant linkages’ (see Fig. 1); making qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment of risks for particular scenarios; and defining further information and data needs for enhancing the assessment process.
Figure 2 shows the typical elements that feature in a Conceptual Risk Model. A CSM is a simple model that places (a) known (or potential) hazards in (b) generalised physical contexts that show (c) actual or potential links with any type of ‘recep-
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Toxic Explosive Corrosive
Source
Air Water Soil
Humans Buildings Agriculture
Earthquake Flood Landslide
Pathway
River Mining feature Geology
Receptor
Water bodies Ecosystems Materials
Figure 2. Conceptual Risk Model – Typical Elements.
tor’, such as humans, water bodies, ecosystems, buildings, infrastructure, or land, for example. The key to managing the identified risks is to break the ‘linkages’ by one of the following: − − − −
modify/remove the Source (e.g. make it non- hazardous or less hazardous); or modify/break the Pathway (e.g. create a ‘barrier’ – physical or chemical); or modify/replace the Receptor (e.g. select a less sensitive use or location); or any combination of above elements.
3. New Development Areas In controlling the location of new vulnerable developments, such as residential property, then it is essential to consider the potential effects of not just the major natural disaster sources but also the man-made ones mentioned earlier, i.e. ground and groundwater contaminated by industrial usage which can have significant health and other effects on new development users and features. Indeed, those potential effects can sometimes be dominated more by the public’s perception of risk scales rather than by the levels of actual risk. This is because residents can be particularly fearful of health effects on, for example, children playing outside the dwelling, or the growing of vegetables for domestic consumption. Such perceptions are usually much lower in the case of less sensitive developments, such as commercial buildings or apartment blocks, where there can be a negligible association between the soil quality and human interactions. In any case, these risk perceptions by the public can lead to ‘economic disasters’ if the value of their property is compromised such that they can no longer live in it, cannot sell it, or they may even have inherited some liability to remediate the conditions. Similar perceptions can also be created when sensitive developments are in close proximity to explicitly polluting sources such as municipal landfill sites which, as outlined earlier, can continue to generate hazardous gases for many decades after completion of the waste disposal activities. Sterile development zones might well be created
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Figure 3. Typical Vulnerability Map for Groundwater (UK).
around such pollution sources. Overall, new land development should therefore take due account of the sensitivity of development type and its features, being particularly aware of the importance of investment security (e.g. land values), as well as the perceived effects of any post-construction remediation works.
4. Vulnerability Maps and Land-Use Zoning A key technique for helping prevent potential disasters would be the creation of ‘Vulnerability maps’; these would be analogous to maps of earthquake, landslip and flooding zones, for example. Indeed, key elements of such maps may already exist in many countries where vulnerable hydrogeological regimes have been identified (see Fig. 3). A more basic map would relate to the vulnerability of surface water bodies since this is usually more easily defined because of the topographic data and fact that the pollution dynamics are essentially two-dimensional. In contrast, groundwater dynamics are
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three-dimensional and actual risks can be dominated by the permeability of superficial layers. Vulnerability maps are also relevant to defining existing risks from either operational or closed facilities/industries, whether waste disposal sites or industries that have/had a high pollution migration potential, for example. In some cases, the critical pollution might not yet be manifest in terms of water quality, but when it becomes manifest it could constitute a pollution disaster. Thus, while it might be too late to prevent the worst effects, there might still be an opportunity for applying some mitigation, not least of which could be the removal or treatment of the primary polluting source. In all cases vulnerability maps should be seen as giving preliminary indications of risks only; actual risks should be calculated for specific scenarios and features. Thus, the maps would represent ‘early warnings’ at a strategic development planning level and would need to be supplemented with more detailed factors, including technical and economic ones. Such development planning controls are probably best addressed at the local level rather than at a national level because there can be greater familiarity with local vulnerability factors with respect to either the proposed development or the relevant natural resources, or both. The local regulating authority can, based on an effective understanding of these local sensitivities require the site developer to carry out appropriate risk assessments. These will then enable the developer to include essential safeguards in the facility design, thereby reducing the potential for future disasters. This is not a novel approach, but it is sometimes wrongly considered to be relevant only for major potentially-polluting industries where there is a more obvious need for close evaluation of environmental risks. With increased knowledge of all the relevant environmental, social and economic factors, local regulators can begin to generate effective land-use maps that help the more appropriate siting of future installations and so reduce the risks from and to future land uses. In generating such types of general development control it is vital that all concerned, not least the regulators, fully understand the profound distinction that must always be made between ‘hazard’ and ‘risk’. All too often these terms are confused and so imply that it is the hazard that must be managed. In many cases this is not possible (especially with natural hazards) and so the emphasis should be placed on risk management, which will include management of the hazard where possible.
5. Concluding Comments The management of risks through the land-use planning process should occur at the strategic level and requires active liaison between the key regulators, whether at the planning level or the pollution control level. Risk assessment tools can play a crucial role but they are simply tools to aid decision-making and must be used intelligently. The concept of ‘zero risk’ is generally unaffordable and not usually sustainable and so compromises are necessary, involving technical, environmental, practical, economic and political factors. In all events, it is essential that information on risks is communicated effectively to all interested parties, whether professional or community representatives.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-267
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International Cooperation for Emergency Warning and Prevention of Catastrophes in Kura River Basin Kristine Sahakyan JINJ Ltd., Armenia:National expert of project “Development of the trans-boundary cooperation for hazard prevention in the Kura river basin” Tel: (+374 10) 54 01 02 (off.) E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. This paper is devoted to the activities of the regional project on “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed” implemented in 2003-2006. The project was funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety. South Caucasus countries Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan participated in the project. The main goal of the project was the development of international cooperation and exchange of international experience aimed at protection of water basins against industrial pollution and increasing industrial safety in the Kura river basin. Prior to the implementation of this project in South Caucasus, similar projects have been implemented for 3 international major transboundary rivers - the rivers Rhine, Danube and Elba, for which International Commissions for protection have been established. With the help of the checklists developed by them (covering organizational and technical measures related to industrial safety) pilot investigations were carried out in the industrial enterprises with high potential hazards to water bodies and corresponding recommendations were provided. As a result of the project an international warning and alarm plan was developed in the Kura River Basin Watershed, the purpose of which was providing information exchange among the countries if needed. Based upon the information and warning systems existing in the countries at the national level, the corresponding departments in the participant countries were charged with the responsibilities of the International main warning centres, based on the justifications represented on the allocation of warning and international communication centres in the Kura basin
Introduction The Kura river basin is of significant political and economic importance for the basin countries. The total area of the basin is 188,000 sq. km, of which 102,000 sq. km is the Araks river basin flowing mainly through Armenia (54%). The Kura and Araks basin mostly coincides with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Kura is also of great importance for the economy of the basin countries, and being a most vital artery of the region, it is a determining factor for ecological stability. The Kura basin protection has
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appeared at the centre of attention relating to the increasing importance of the rational use of water bodies and providing drinking water for the population.
In the process of “Environment for Europe” Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have occupied a firm place in recent years within the framework of European cooperation in the field of environmental protection. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety, having a certain input within the framework of this process, has funded the project on “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed”, using the means of Consulting support fund for CACENA countries. An expression of this support is the transfer of information and technologies. Besides, support is also rendered in the sphere of introducing European standards related to industrial safety of dangerous facilities. This project, which was implemented in 2003-2006, was based upon the necessity to develop basin cooperation between Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in the sphere of emergency warning in the Kura River basin. It promoted the transfer of Western European experience to international river basins of the countries of CACENA. Therewith, a full series of requirements for water body protection and providing water quality in surface reservoirs, was taken into account (e.g. Framework Directive on Water Policy, requirements in accordance with ecological management on EMAS).
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1. Project objectives The project supports exchange and transfer of Western European experience in transboundary river basins in Eastern Europe and is aimed at the development of international cooperation, in particular in the field of increasing ecological safety and efficient use of water bodies. The main goal of the project is the transfer of technological experience aimed at development of international cooperation in the field of protection of reservoirs against industrial pollution and increasing industrial safety in the Kura river basin in the following directions, according to the UN Convention of EEC: x0003 x0003
protection of reservoirs against the impact of industrial pollution; increasing industrial safety level emergency warning trans-boundary management.
This project differs from those in the region, since it takes into account the importance of trans-boundary impact. The project uses the experience of International Commissions for protection of the Rhine, Danube and Elba (ICRP, ICDP, and ICEP), which have developed recommendations for measures for providing safety of industrial and warehouse facilities. One example of this is the checklists developed by the FEA for evaluating the hazard potential in industrial handling of materials hazardous to water, which are a proven practical instrument for collecting, managing, and monitoring required data under the UNECE industrial convention. This instrument is recommended for approbation to South Caucasian partners and representatives of responsible authorities. The developed organizational and technical measures for industrial safety promote a gradual increase in the safety levels of industrial facilities, taking into account peculiarities of local conditions. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety attached a special importance to the project, which was included in National strategy of sustainable development of Federal Republic of Germany (NHS) in the part of “Global responsibility”, as well as in the report of FME to the Parliament of FRG. Besides, the project was included in the Programme of Partners projects on the implementation of ecological strategies for countries of CACENA within the framework of “Environment for Europe” process of UN European Economic Commission. The Ministries of Environment of the participant countries assigned national responsible persons for the project activities, through whom coordination of tasks, methods and possible forms of task implementation, as well as all of the planned project measures in each country, was implemented. In accordance with the nature of the tasks, specialists and agencies engaged in the project activities were determined. Representatives of different levels were engaged in the project – Ministries, various state services of the region, specialists and national coordinators, engaged for provision of quality and competent implementation of the project activities. During the
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project all of the participants were regularly and purposefully informed in accordance with their responsibility level in the implementation of activities.
2. Main project activities The following six main activities were carried out during 2003-2006 within the framework of the project. 0003 Identification of industrial plants with potential hazards to water, and their evaluation (2003 – 2004) The local experts of the participant countries carried out the collection of basic information on prevention of major accidents in the South-Caucasus countries and preliminary determination of accident-potential in industrial enterprises in the Kura river basin. Based upon the obtained data, the hazard potential of 15 industrial enterprises and 15 former industrial areas was assessed in each of the participating countries. The potential for an incident was evaluated using the WRI (water risk index) method developed in the Danube river basin watershed, which was also recommended for use by the UNECE countries. To derive the WRI, the materials hazardous to water that are permanently present at the plant were surveyed. The materials are classified by class of hazard to water bodies (http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/wgs/wgs-index.htm). 0003 Selection and Investigation of Relevant Plants with High Potential Hazards to Water (2003 - 2004) Based on the identification of the plants with potential hazards, three modelenterprises with high potential hazards were determined in each country, to investigate within the project (according to the assessment results, these enterprises were with high incident potential - WRI >=6). The model investigations were done using the “Checklists for Investigation and Evaluation of Systems with Materials Hazardous to Water” developed by the FEA . The studies in one of the selected enterprises in each country were done with the participation of an independent expert from Germany (who, according to German law, has the right of access for the expert examination of facilities with water hazardous materials). Local specialists got acquainted with the approach and method of research and two other model enterprises in each country were studied independently by the specialists of the participant-countries. In addition to international requirements, the economic and other conditions of the individual countries were given great consideration in the development of short, medium, and long-term actions, in order to be able to recommend measures that would have a sustainable effect on the region. The enterprises were from different industrial sectors: chemical, mining, textile manufacture, oil-processing, and power supply. Works were carried out in the following enterprises:
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Armenia x0003 x0003 x0003
Chemicals plant (r. Hrazdan-Araks), Chemicals plant (r. Debed-Kura), Ore mining and processing enterprise (r. Debed-Kura).
Georgia x0003 x0003 x0003
Chemicals plant (r. Kura) Railway-carriage repair works (r. Kura) Ore mining and processing enterprise (r. Mashavera– Kura) Azerbaijan
x0003 x0003 x0003
Textile mill (r. Alazani/Kura) Petroleum refinery (at Caspian Sea) Hydropower plant (r. Kura)
On the basis of the investigation results, the necessary organizational and technical measures for preventive protection of water bodies were recommended. x0003
Development of checklists for investigation and evaluation of industrial plants with substances and preparations hazardous to water (2004 – 2006) It is to be noted that as a result of the inspection works new checklists were developed for the investigation of mine tailings, as well as checklists for closing of hazardous enterprises, and confirms the cooperation and experience exchanges among analogous projects, and emphasizes the importance of such cooperation.
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A checklist for investigation of tailings is applicable for mining extraction and processing sites, if handling with waste rock or tailings is necessary, including facilities with direct impact on the tailings. The checklist was developed on the basis of BREF (Best Available Techniques Reference Document) for management of tailings and waste rock - MTWR. A checklist for control over the closing process of hazardous industrial facilities and plants, as a result of discussions with local experts, was developed in the form of two independent checklists. Such an approach was necessary for taking into account the situation in countries with economies that are in transition. The economic situation develops in a way that the plants closed for an indefinite period must be subject to conservation. According to the conditions, there should be checklists for both temporary (conservation) and permanent (liquidation) plant closings. 0003 Development of an International Warning and Alarm Plan in the Kura River Basin Watershed (IWAK), (2005 – 2006) The goal was the development of a functional, secure alarm system between Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia that would alert the environmental agencies in all three countries in case of incident-related water pollution, and provide them with critical information about the accident. International main warning centres were implemented, within the existing early warning structures, to exchange information among the countries. The main task of the International Warning and Alarm Plan is the provision of a functional system of information transfer in the Kura River Watershed
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with respect to the place, time and scale of the pollution of water resources as a result of accident. The IWAK plan was developed taking into account the practical experience of International Commissions for the Elbe, Rhine, and Danube, as well as current results from the Neman project. During the plan development, also the warning systems functioning in the Republics of South Caucasus were taken into account, along with the corresponding warning system on industrial emergencies, UNECE, as proposed in October 2004 in Budapest. Plan IWAK is considered a «living document». Its proposed actual version has been discussed within the project, modified by local experts in accordance with the regional conditions and confirmed by the project participant countries. An important component of IKWA are the alarm criteria, jointly developed and concretely defined by the project experts. The International Kura Warning and Alarm Plan (IKWA), developed by German and South Caucasus experts during the project, is workable and was tested successfully during alarm exercises. For alarm propagation, the reporting model of “Yerevan – Tbilisi – Baku – Tbilisi – Yerevan” was used, until direct “Yerevan – Baku – Yerevan” and “Baku – Yerevan – Baku” communication becomes possible. Transmission of information during test exercises showed a few deficiencies at first, the causes of which were investigated by the project team, but still confirmed the principal functional suitability of the model.
Fig. 3 Information transmission scheme According to the IWAK plan, the Kura river basin is subdivided into 3 warning areas and one International Main Warning Centre (IMWC) is functioning in each area. According to the warning plan, information is transferred by baton model, therewith, information is always transferred through communication node in Tbilisi.
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For the first communication the IMWC is responsible, in the territory of which (area of responsibility) the accident has taken place. This means that in case of emergency situation in the Kura river basin in the territory of Armenia, the information is to be transferred by the IMWC in Yerevan to the address of the IMWC in Tbilisi and from Tbilisi – to Baku. If an accident has taken place in the territory of Azerbaijan, the above-mentioned countries must be informed. Information transfer by IMWCs is carried out in accordance with the existing regional and national warning plans. Further adaptation and development of the International Warning and Alarm Plan (after project completion) will be carried out by the Expert group of the project. 0003 Implementation of International Main Warning Centres and information transfer (IHWZ), (2005-2006) Introducing International Main Warning Centres in the existing early warning systems was carried out in accordance with plan of IWAK, taking into consideration the optimal use of the existing communication base (Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi). Supplementing and improving the required technical equipping of the Centres (communication techniques) was carried out from the project funds. For implementation of plan IWAK, and introducing International Main Warning Centres, the responsible contact persons of the participant countries presented to the project management team the actual information on the existing national warning systems, as well as brief justifications and recommendations on the allocation of warning and international communication centres in the Kura basin.
1. Conclusion of expert
Water 2.
Decision
2. Decision maikng Fig 4 IMWC
The IMWCs combine various functions, which are designated as follows: x0003 Expert assessment x0003 Decision making x0003 Information transfer - international communications (Fig. 4).
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The IMWC function in Armenia is carried out by the Emergency response centre (“Crisis Management Centre“) of the Rescue Service of the Ministry for Territorial Governance of the Republic of Armenia in Yerevan. The IMWC function in Azerbaijan is carried out by Caspian Complex Environmental Monitoring Administration of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Baku. The IMWC function in Georgia is carried out by IHWZ-Centre of Monitoring and Forecasting of the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia in Tbilisi. In close cooperation with the IMWCs also other state agencies are working, for example State technical supervision, ministries of environment in the three countries, etc. Expansion and improvement of the necessary technical equipment (communications technology) for the IMWC was supported by project funds. The information paths and internal national legal prerequisites for the notification procedure were developed under consideration of the existing notification procedures in these countries, and tested with alarm exercises. The regional expert group will take over the completion of the work of the IMWC and the notification paths. 0003
Establishment of Permanent Expert Group for Emergency situations (PEGAS)
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The jointly-developed cross-border warning and alarm system is to be defined as a first step in the direction of an international river basin commission for the protection of the Kura.
3. Conclusions Above and beyond the agreed-upon project assignments, the results of the cooperation of the South Caucasus countries and the Federal Republic of Germany, a suggestion was made by the international project steering group to found a standing expert working group to protect the Kura (PEGAS), based on the working group formed within the project. The suggestion and the necessity to establish PEGAS was supported by the experts of the project “Development and introduction of measures for preventing accidents in Kura river basin”. Within the framework of analysis and evaluation of the project results, at the meeting of the International group of the project coordination, the representatives of the participant countries came to a general agreement that establishment of the standing expert group for emergency situation (PEGAS) in the Kura river basin was a fundamental necessity welcomed by them. Therewith, the project experts who will continue the initiated work and are the primary chain for future establishment of PEGAS are of special importance. The principal benefits and conclusions from the project are: x0003 Under the project, activities were implemented and specialists trained for the development of professional and international cooperation in the field of early warning system in South Caucasus. x0003 A real possibility for quality improvement of prerequisites for practical introduction of international requirements related to emergency management in the Kura river basin was created by the project. x0003 The project proved that the presence of a clear professional work plan, based on the professional experience of local responsible persons, provides efficient and tangible results which will promote sustainable development of the region. Also, the solution of problems in the field of trans-boundary river basin protection at international level has a direct impact on gradual development of mutual trust among the adjacent countries, and thus, makes a certain input in the sustainable development of the states’ economics and ecology. The carried out work confirmed once again that nature does not recognize any borders. The project results are available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/anlagen/index.html, as well as www.kura.iabg.de.
References
Final Report of project “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed”
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Progress Reports www.kura.iabg.de
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/anlagen/index.htm
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-278
Communication Problems during an Emergency and Lessons Learned Aysen TURKMANa, Ayla UYSALb European University of Lefke, Gemikonagi Mersin 10, Turkey b Suleyman Demirel University, Department of Environmental Engineering Isparta, Turkey a
Abstract. Communication during an emergency and preparedness are very important since they can cause fatalities if not properly managed. In many countries, including Turkey, there are many examples of bad communication in emergency situations. In this study, communication problems encountered during an emergency are discussed. The harmful effects that occurred due to the miscommunication are also discussed. Keywords. Communication problems, emergency, miscommunication
Introduction A disaster is defined as a serious disruption to the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of an affected society to cope using only its own resources [1]. The extent of a disaster depends on both the intensity of the hazard event and the degree of vulnerability of the society. Every year many people are affected by natural disasters or technological accidents world-wide. More than 60,000 people are killed and material damage accounts for €69 billion a year in the last decade. While the number of geophysical disasters reported over the last decade has remained fairly steady, there has been a steep increase of hydro-meteorological disaster events (such as floods, tropical storms, and droughts) since 1996. Many scientists assume that this trend will continue and could even be reinforced as a result of global climate change. Together with increasing population pressure and changing habitation patterns in the coming 35 years, this scenario suggests that, a few years down the road, the number of people affected by natural disasters could increase massively. On top of that, some scientists suggest that climate change may cause large scale migration of populations and trigger new or exacerbate existing conflicts about scarce resources like arable land or water [2]. During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tropical cyclones, floods, drought, and other hazards have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods. They equally destroyed economic and social infrastructure and created environmental damage [3]. Economic losses have increased almost 10 times during this period. In recent years, floods in Bangladesh, Mozambique and elsewhere, volcanic eruptions in Ecuador, DRC, Indonesia and the Philippines, and
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earthquakes in Afghanistan, El Salvador, Indonesia, Peru and Turkey have created widespread social, economic and environmental destruction. The government is the dominant actor in moving towards sustainable development and disaster risk management, but also the private sector and civil society are playing an ever more active role in successful disaster risk reduction. It is being increasingly recognized that disaster risk management at the local level is a key element in any viable national strategy to reduce disaster risk [4].
1. Disaster Risk Management and its Components Due to the increasing frequency of disasters worldwide, a lot of international organizations, governments and NGOs are upgrading the priority of disaster risk management policies, and are developing techniques and tools for disaster mitigation, rehabilitation and reconstruction. According to ISDR Secretariat disaster risk management means the systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (i.e. prevention) or to limit (i.e. mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. Generally, the disaster risk management process (cycle) is composed of the following main elements [5]: x0003 Risk identification and assessment (determining and analyzing the potential, origin, characteristics and behaviour of the hazard – e.g. frequency of occurrence/magnitude of consequences); x0003 Knowledge management (information programmes and systems, public awareness policy, education and training, research in disaster reduction); x0003 Political commitment and institutional development (good governance to elevate disaster risk reduction as a policy priority, integration in development planning and sectoral policies, implementing organizational structures, legal and regulatory framework); x0003 Application of risk reduction measures (planning and implementation of structural interventions (e.g. dams, dykes) or non-structural measures like disaster legislation); x0003 Early warning (provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allow individuals exposed to a hazard, to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response); x0003 Disaster preparedness and emergency management (activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the impact of a hazard, including measures related to timely and effective warnings as well as evacuation and emergency planning); and x0003 Recovery/Reconstruction (decisions and actions taken in the post-disaster phase with a view to restoring the living conditions of the affected population) Based on the above specified components, disaster risk management includes measures before (risk analysis, prevention, preparedness), during (emergency aid) and
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after a disaster (reconstruction). Sometimes disaster risk management includes only a part of disaster management, focusing on the before of the extreme natural event.
2. Disaster Preparedness Disaster preparedness is seen as that action taken when the occurrence of a tropical cyclone, flood or storm surge threatens to become a disaster. Preparedness activities are designed to reduce social disruption and losses to existing property and are an essential component of overall disaster planning. They can serve in the absence of more permanent measures to reduce the threat to loss of life and property. The main types of disaster preparedness include [6]: x0003 forecasting and warning systems x0003 evacuation from affected areas x0003 flood fighting x0003 flood relief x0003 cyclone shelters Depending on the size of the drainage basin, the length of river and the time of concentration of floodwater in the main channel, flood forecasts and warnings may be issued well in advance of the arrival of the flood crest on large rivers. Flash floods originating on small catchments present special problems and usually require some form of forecasting based on rainfall estimates. Although the forecasts for cyclones and floods may be accurate and timely they may have little or no effects on the intended recipients if the warning system for dissemination of the forecast is inadequate. Each agency responsible for emergency operations should receive prompt forecasts and warnings of the changing circumstances so that action needed to meet the emergency can be achieved. Dissemination of forecasts requires an effective communications system based on radio broadcasts, television, newspapers, telephone and special warning systems. The evacuation of people from a potential or actual disaster area is one of the most important elements of disaster mitigation. Careful planning is necessary for the efficient evacuation and relief of flood victims. To be effective the plan should define hazardous areas and potential dangers. However, the difficulty in evacuating victims and property can be increased if escape routes cannot cope with the traffic volume, if evacuation services cannot be contacted or suitable evacuation equipment such as trucks, boats and helicopters are not available [6].
3. Problems in the Risk Communication There are many examples of emergency miscommunication in the world. These problems not only create negative human health and environmental effects, but also psychological effects on the community as explained below. Lack of credibility: Lack of credibility alters the communication process by adding distrust and acrimony. The most important factors detracting from the credibility of a risk message relate to the accuracy of the message and the legitimacy of the process by which its contents were determined, as perceived by the recipients.
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The perceived legitimacy of the process by which the contents of the message are determined depends on the following: legal standing, justification for the communication programme, access of affected parties to the decision-making process, and a fair review of conflicting claims. Perhaps the most difficult problem for credibility is a past record of deceit, misrepresentation, or coercion. When the responsible government organizations have been proven to have lied, it is not surprising that people want independent verification. Establishing and defending credibility is difficult when the message represents a departure from previous positions. In large part credibility derives from the demonstration over time of consistent competence and fairness. Both scientific incertitude and changes in policy can serve to undermine credibility to the lay public. The necessity of correcting mistaken statements or positions can undermine credibility with the public. Care must be taken to demonstrate why the interpretation of scientific or policy conclusions has changed [7]. Incomprehensible messages: For those who are not familiar with it, the technical terminology of risk assessment is very difficult to understand. Preparing messages with few data and no time: Sometimes the risk communicator must disseminate messages when there are not enough relevant data to draw satisfactory conclusions and there is no time to obtain better information. This usually occurs in the following situations: 1. An emergency requires immediate action, or 2. Events lead to requests for information prior to the completion of study or analysis. The problem is most extreme when external events take control and require action when no preparation has been made in advance of the event. For example, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission was almost totally unprepared for an accident at the time of Three Mile Island. There was no effective management structure to support emergency decision-making and time was lost in figuring out who should do what [8].
4. Bad Communication Examples There are many bad communication examples in the world and several of them are mentioned below [9]: Porto Marghera Chemical Plant, Italy An accident occurred at the Porto Marghera chemical plant on November 28, 2002 and toxic chemicals were released to the environment. The Porto Marghera plant caused a serious health risk for people exposed to its fumes and several workers have died after being exposed to carcinogenic substances produced in the chemical plant. The real mortality rate from vinyl chloride is different from the 'official' one, as asserted in a report published by an Italian magazine, Medicina Democratica, in 1994. The data on deaths from angiosarcoma (an obscure cancer of the liver tied to vinyl chloride exposure) given by public bodies and companies are not reliable. Among those who died at Montedison because of vinyl chloride, only three have been officially recognized.
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The situation at Porto Marghera is a genuine emergency, but for the past 25 years it has been dealt with only by adopting inadequate temporary measures, said Fabrizio Fabbri of Greenpeace Italy. Not even the helpful action of the Venice judges, who pointed out several environmental crimes committed by chemical companies in the area, could persuade the politicians to take concrete action [10]. Bhopal India On the night of 2/3 December 1984, a major accident occurred in Bhopal at a pesticide plant owned by the Union Carbide Corporation [11]. This accident triggered a long-term industrial crisis for the entire population of Bhopal, for government agencies in India, and for the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) [12]. The Bhopal crisis was triggered by a technological accident: 45 tons of methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas escaped from two underground storage tanks at the plant. The accident occurred between 10pm (2 December) and 1.30am (3 December) when the plant was on second shift and the surrounding population was asleep in slum 'hutments' that are densely packed together in this part of Bhopal. Leaked gases were trapped under a nocturnal temperature inversion in a shallow bubble that blanketed the city within five miles of the plant. Next morning, over 2,000 people were dead and 300,000 were injured. Another 1,500 people died in subsequent months owing to injuries caused by the accident. At least 7,000 animals perished but damage to the natural environment remains largely unassessed [13]. Emergency services were completely overwhelmed and confusion was rampant in the affected neighbourhood. Police instructed people to run away from the area, but many of those who did so inhaled large amounts of toxic MIC and succumbed to its effects. Residents were unaware that the simple act of covering their faces with wet cloths and lying indoors on the floor would provide effective protection against the gas. That night, and in the days that followed, nearly 400,000 people fled the city in a haphazard and uncontrolled evacuation. Two weeks later, during government attempts to neutralize the plant's remaining MIC, another wave of mass flight involved 200,000 people [14, 15, 16]. An important issue also raised by the Bhopal accident is the location of industrial plants. Legislation is required to ensure that dangerous sites do not exist in close proximity to heavily populated areas. All industrial plants should be built with the potential for a disaster in mind, thereby minimizing the risk to the population if a spill, fire or leak occurs. In the case of Bhopal, it appears that the dense population distribution around the plant occurred as a result of people needing to live close to work [17]. Initially, the state government tried to place all the blame squarely on UCC and sued them for damages on behalf of victims. In a largely symbolic gesture against the company, UCC's Chief Executive, Warren Anderson, was arrested on his arrival in Bhopal. The government thwarted several efforts by UCC to provide relief to victims, in an attempt to prevent the company from earning goodwill among the public. This early political management was very effective. In nationwide elections that took place four weeks after the accident, the Congress Party won both the state legislative assembly and the national parliament seats from Madhya Pradesh by wide margins [12]. Chernobyl, Ukraine
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The accident of 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located about 20 km south of the border with Belarus, was the most serious ever to have occurred in the nuclear industry. It caused the deaths, within a few days or weeks, of 30 power plant employees and firemen (including 28 with acute radiation syndrome) and brought about the evacuation, in 1986, of about 116,000 people from areas surrounding the reactor and the relocation, after 1986, of about 220,000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Vast territories of those three countries (at that time republics of the Soviet Union) were contaminated, and trace deposition of released radio-nuclides was measurable in all countries of the northern hemisphere [18]. The explosion released 400 times more radioactive material into the atmosphere than the US nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, Japan in 1945. This resulted in tons of contaminated food being consumed by millions of people. Officials, including ministers and scientists, systematically suppressed information about Turkish areas and food contaminated by the radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. A large number of babies were showing deformities, especially those born to mothers who were in their second month of pregnancy when the accident occurred. Also, many miscarriages and abnormal births had been observed. One of the places the magazine mentioned was the village of Düzce, on the western coast of the Black Sea where, in November 1986, an extremely uncommon concentration of babies numbering 10 in that year alone - were born with their brains outside their skulls. In the city of Trabzon, also near the Black Sea, the number of abnormal births has quadrupled since 1986 [19]. The Turkish Atomic Energy Agency (TAEK) knew about the contamination in the Black Sea region. But the agency did not warn people who grow tea in this region or factories processing the tea. Between May and December 1986, when tea was harvested, people were left without a warning. Contaminated tea processed and packed during this period of eight months was sold on the market. Best quality tea was sold most likely in Germany and consumed by Turkish workers living there. Turkish scientist Dr. Yuksel Atakan, who lives in Germany, published in 1990 a study showing that tea from Turkey was heavily contaminated. Results of measurements in Germany of tea bought in Turkey in June 1987 varied from dangerous levels of 6,000 to 30,000 Bq/kg. By the end of 1992, Mr. Aral confessed: 'The government has indeed hidden the facts and figures on the impact of Chernobyl in Turkey.' 'I am sorry', the former Minister of Industry and Trade, Cahit Aral, remarked recently, 'but we couldn't protect the Turkish nation.' After Chernobyl, the Turkish people were burdened with highly contaminated food [19]. The Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 The Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 was one of the strongest earthquakes ever to hit an industrialized region. The earthquake had a magnitude of Mw 7.4 and caused over 15,000 deaths and 40,000 injuries. It is estimated that 214,000 residential units and 30,500 business units either collapsed or were lightly to heavily damaged leaving more than 250,000 people homeless (USGS, 2000). The earthquake not only cost thousands of lives, but also caused direct and indirect economic losses estimated as $16 billion USD [20]. This earthquake offered a unique opportunity to study risk management practices and emergency response to accidental releases of hazardous materials triggered by
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seismic movement. While there has been some attention devoted to releases from pipeline breaks during earthquakes, there has been little consideration of earthquakerelated hazardous material releases at industrial facilities. The study results indicate that hazardous material releases are a real threat to life and property inside industrial facilities as well as to nearby residential areas. Some of the more significant examples of hazardous material releases triggered by the earthquake include: the air release of 200 metric tons of hazardous anhydrous ammonia to avoid tank over-pressurization due to loss of refrigeration capabilities; the leakage of 6,500 metric tons of toxic acrylonitrile (ACN) into air, soil and water from ruptured tanks; the spill of 50 metric tons of diesel fuel into Izmit Bay from a broken fuel loading arm; the release of 1,200 metric tons of cryogenic liquid oxygen caused by structural failure of concrete support columns in two oxygen storage tanks; and the enormous fires, liquid petroleum gas leakages, and oil spills at the TUPRAS oil refinery. Several strategies have been identified to make highly populated, industrialized cities safer and more resilient to earthquake threats. These include enforcement of regulations pertaining to seismic-resistant construction codes and other environmental and public safety laws; risk management practices and mitigation measures in industry which account for the possibility of seismic hazards; emergency management programmes in industry and government that take into account the simultaneous effects of the earthquake and possible hazardous materials releases; land use planning as a mitigation strategy to reduce the impact of joint earthquake and hazardous materials releases on urban communities; and the appropriate government structure, organization, and political context in which to effectively manage joint natural and technological emergencies [20]. Hurricane Katrina, USA Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) was the largest natural catastrophe USA has ever experienced. Although Hurricane Andrew in 1992 made land-fall with far stronger winds, the Galveston Hurricane in 1907 took more lives, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927 inundated more territory, Hurricane Katrina’s strong storm surge along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, and the failure of New Orleans’ levies, combined to devastate a populated and developed area the size of Great Britain. Hurricane Katrina also struck at a time when the nation had far greater expectations of government – and particularly of the federal government – to prepare for and then, after the storm, to assist governments and residents and businesses devastated by the storm. In addition, it struck after four years of investment in preparedness by the government. These investments included a new federal department (the Department of Homeland Security), a new Pentagon command focused on the homeland (U.S. Northern Command, Northcom), a new National Response Plan and National Incident Management System, and billions of dollars of appropriations to help federal, state, and local governments prepare for catastrophic events – albeit primarily catastrophic events caused by terrorism. Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security vividly documents the failures of this expensive investment in preparedness [21]. Government’s recognition and response to Katrina was confused, chaotic, and much too slow. President Bush admits mistakes in handling Hurricane Katrina, saying the storm exposed serious problems in the government's response capability.
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Flood Problems in Vietnam Flooding is the main form of natural disaster in Vietnam; every year floods cause enormous damage to human lives and the economy. The annual rainfall in Vietnam ranges between 1,800 and 2,500 mm and 70-80 per cent falls between July and October. Although beneficial to agriculture, rain creates havoc through flooding [22]. The monsoon winds and typhoons are the main causes of heavy rains. The floods associated with monsoon rains usually occur between July and November. Heavy rains cause flash floods in hilly areas and later inundate the deltas. Typhoons bring heavy rain to the coastal belt, sometimes as much as 800mm per day and the strong winds that accompany them create tidal waves [23]. Loss of human lives and livestock, and damage to economic activities, infrastructure and buildings, are inevitable in the aftermath of flooding. Floods affect the economic behaviour of the people as well. In flood-prone areas, farmers often grow only one crop a year compared with two or three in flood protected areas of the deltas. In areas where the salinity of the soil has been increased by sea water that comes in with tidal waves, farmers prefer to grow saline-resistant traditional rice varieties instead of high-yielding ones. Despite the scale of the economic losses, no thorough study has yet been conducted to assess the overall impact of floods on the economy of the country [22]. For accurate flood forecasting, good data collection and communication systems are essential. The communication facilities in Vietnam are very poor and worsen during floods, thus necessitating substantial improvements. Vietnam will therefore need external assistance to acquire new technology and experience to reduce the damage caused by floods [22].
5. Results and Conclusions As can be concluded from many unfortunate events, the losses from miscommunication are much bigger than gains for the companies or the government. Therefore, in order to overcome the problems of miscommunication, preparedness, honesty, coherency, transparency, consistency and being timely are major factors to be considered. Owing to the lessons learned from bad communication examples, many countries have already improved their rules and regulations on risk communication. The harmful effects can be minimized by informing the population about the hazards and required behaviour under emergency conditions in a vivid and open manner. The communication about risks is a sensitive subject and needs accurate planning. In addition to the well-balanced information contents, the analysis of the social conditions of the population in the neighbourhood has decisive importance for successful communication. Although the risk communication may create anxiety for the public by engendering some fears, still it is a very important in preventing the negative effects of an emergency. Good communication as a part of risk management is a must in democracy.
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References [1]
European Environment Agency (EEA), Multilingual Environment Glossary. http://glossary.eea.europa.eu/EEAGlossary., 2006. [2] http://www.untj.org/files/minutes/DPM/Annexes/DPM281103(12).pdf [3] http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/WSSDdocrevisedsept02.htm [4] United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (UNDP/BCPR), Reducing Disaster Risk. A Challenge for Development. A global report, New York, 2004. [5] United Nations Inter-Agency Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. United Nations, Geneva, 2004. [6] http://www.unescap.org/enrd/water_mineral/disaster/watdis4.htm [7] http://www.dphhs.mt.gov/PHSD/risk-communication/risk-comm-index.shtml [8] http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309039436/html/ [9] Küçükgül, E., Türkman, A., Uysal, A., Communication Problems During Emergency. NOSHCON 2006, International Risk Management, 45th Conference and Exhibition in Occupational Risk Management, The Lost City Convention Centre, Sun City, South Africa, 144-152, 2006. [10] http://archive.greenpeace.org/pressreleases/toxics/1999sep15.html [11] Bogard, William P., The Bhopal Tragedy: Language, Logic, and Politics in the Production of a Hazard. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, 1989. [12] http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks [13] Prasad, R., and Pandey, R.K., Methyl isocyanate (MIC) hazard to the vegetation in Bhopal, Journal of Tropical Forestry 1 (1985), 40-50. [14] Shrivastava, P. , Bhopal: Anatomy of a Crisis. 2nd edn. London: Paul Chapman, 1992. [15] Diamond, S. , The Bhopal Disaster: How it happened. New York Times, 28 January., 1985. [16] Morehouse, W., and Subramaniam, A., The Bhopal Tragedy. New York: Council on International and Public Affairs, 1988. [17] http://www.tropmed.org/rreh/vol1_10.htm [18] http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/chernounscear.htm [19] http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/385/3760.html [20] Steinberg, L, Cruz, A., Vardar-Sukan, F, Ersoz, Y. Assessment of Risk Management Practices at Industrial Facilities during the Turkey Earthquake of August 17, 1999, First Annual IIASA-DPRI Meeting “Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability”, IIASA, Laxemburg, Austria, 1-4 August, 2000. [21] Abbott, E. B., Review of Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 4 (2007), 1-4. [22] Wickramanayake, E., Flood Mitigation Problems in Vietnam, Disasters 18 (1994), 81-86. [23] UNDP, Report on the Economy of Vietnam. United Nations Development Programme, Ha Noi., 1990.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-287
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Public Participation and Information through the Licensing Phase of Industrial Facilities to Optimize Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures Juliane KNAUL Legal Department, State Office for Mining, Geology and Minerals, Brandenburg, Germany
Abstract. This paper outlines the key international, EC and German laws that dictate the procedures for informing the public who is adversely affected by industrial development. The paper gives an up-date on the requirements of the relevant regulations for participation by the public and providing information to the public within the license procedure of industrial and mining projects likely to have significant adverse effects on the environment. Keywords. public participation; information; mining-related industries; legislation
Introduction The public has an interest in the licensing phase cycle of industrial facilities such as mining-related industries. This interest is based on several accidents which have happened such as some tailing dam bursts in Baia Mare, Romania or Aznalcóllar, Spain. These accidents reflect the general environmental and safety hazards of mining activities which have increased the public awareness. In consideration of this fact, public participation and information to the public through the licensing phase of industrial facilities regulated by international, EC and German national law have an essential role in optimizing disaster forecasting and prevention measures.
1. International Law UNECE Espoo-Convention on Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment of 25 February 1991. The Espoo-Convention is the first general contract of nations which requires an assessment of the trans-boundary environmental impact of certain activities at an early stage of planning. It also lays down the general obligation of States to notify and consult each other on all major projects under consideration that are likely to have a significant adverse environmental impact across boundaries.
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Mining activities are also listed in this Convention. The need to give explicit consideration to environmental factors at an early stage in the decision-making process by applying environmental impact assessment requires public participation at all appropriate administrative levels, as a necessary tool to improve the quality of information presented to decision-makers so that environmentally sound decisions can be made, paying careful attention to minimizing significant adverse impact, particularly in a trans-boundary context. UNECE Århus-Convention on Access to Information, Public, Participation in Decision-Making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters of June 1998. Contributing to the protection of the right of every person from present and future generations to live in an environment adequate to his or her health and well-being, the Århus-Convention provides for rights of access to information, public participation in decision-making and lays down the establishment of relevant international minimum standards in these regards. Aiming thereby to further accountability and transparency in decision-making and to strengthen public support for decisions on the environment, the Convention sets significant standards for protection, prevention and improvement of the state of the environment and for ensuring sustainable and environmentally sound development. This Convention promotes environmental education to further the understanding of the environment and sustainable development and encourages widespread public awareness of, and participation in, decisions affecting the environment and sustainable development. In this context, there is a need for making use of the media and of electronic or other forms of communication. In summary, the Convention serves an essential role in furthering human wellbeing and the use and enjoyment of basic human rights, including the right to life itself.
2. European Community Legislation Council Directive 85/337/EEC of 27 June 1985: assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment. Already before commencement of the above-named general contracts of nations, the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment required the involvement and participation of the public in the context of the environmental impact assessment of a large number of economic activities, including mining activities, where such activities are likely to have a significant impact on the environment by virtue of their nature, size or locationThis Directive requires an assessment of the likely environmental effects of certain activities before authorization is given. Such assessment must be reflected in an environmental report that must be taken into account by the competent authority granting authorization. Planned mitigation measures form a particular part of such assessment. An important factor in the impact assessment procedure is the involvement and participation of the public. Within the environmental impact assessment process, which
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is extensively required for mining activities, the competent authority is required to ensure that information is made available in an appropriate manner to the public. The resulting comments of the public are to be carefully considered by the competent authority. Such a participatory approach ensures transparency and early involvement of the public and helps to identify and mitigate risks for the environment and optimize disaster forecasting. The participation of the public ensures that all direct and indirect effects of a project are determined, reflected and assessed relating to such factors as humans, fauna and flora, soil, water, air, climate and the landscape, the inter-action between these factors, material assets and the cultural heritage. The Directive also implements the UNECE Espoo-Convention on trans-boundary impact assessment. In the case of a likely significant trans-boundary environmental impact from a planned industrial or mining project, the affected parties have to be notified and all relevant information on the project, including the environmental report, has to be submitted so that members of the public likely to be affected get the opportunity to comment. The results of such trans-boundary consultation have to be taken into account by the competent authority of the party that is responsible for granting authorization to the project. Council Directive 1996/61/EC of 24 September 1996; integrated pollution prevention and control. The purpose of this Directive is to achieve integrated prevention and control of pollution arising from industrial facilities with highly significant negative environmental effects that require the authorization of the facilities. Also, it lays down measures designed to prevent or, where that is not practicable, to reduce emissions to air, water and land from such industrial activities whose production capacities or outputs exceed the threshold and limit values set out in the Directive. For example, the Directive covers several energy industries such as mineral oil and gas refineries,as well as activities in waste management, like landfills that receive more than 10 tonnes per day or with a total capacity exceeding 25,000 tonnes, excluding landfills for inert waste. Thereafter, the Directive lays down requirements concerning the permitting of industrial activities. The competent authorities determine the conditions of the permit in order to achieve a high level of protection of the environment taken as a whole, without prejudice to relevant Community provisions. For the public to be aware of the operation of installations and their potential effect on the environment, and in order to ensure the transparency of the licensing process throughout the Community, the public must have access, before any decision is taken, to information relating to applications for permits for new installations or for substantial changes, and to information on the permits themselves, their updating and the relevant monitoring data. For installations with potential for pollution, and therefore trans-frontier pollution, the applications relating to such proposals, or for substantial changes, must be available to the public of the Member State likely to be affected. During the permitting procedure, the public must be able to comment on the applications for permits before the competent authority reaches its decision and the resulting comments have to be carefully considered by the competent authority.
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Directive 2006/21/EC of the European Parliament and Council of 15 March 2006: management of waste from extractive industries. For waste facilities which hold extractive waste with a substantial risk to the environment and human health such as is found in the case of tailing dams, the Directive on the management of waste from extractive industries, (which also must be consistent with the Århus-Convention) provides a separate and stringent regulating system. In accordance with the objectives of Community policy on the environment, the Directive lays down minimum requirements in order to prevent, or reduce as far as possible, any adverse effects on the environment and human health which are brought about as a result of the management of waste from the extractive industries. No waste facility must be allowed to operate without a permit granted by the competent authority. Early in the procedure for granting a permit or, at the latest, as soon as the information can reasonably be provided, the public must be informed of the application for a waste management permit. Furthermore, public participation means that the affected members of the public must be consulted prior to the granting of a waste management. The resulting public comments have to be carefully considered by the competent authority. For such waste facilities with potential for pollution, and therefore trans-frontier pollution, the applications must be available to the public of the Member State likely to be affected. Directive 2001/42/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2001: assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment. The objective of the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain industrial plans and programmes on the environment, which also implements the obligations arising under the Århus Convention, is to provide for a high level of protection for the environment. Also, it is to contribute to the integration of environmental considerations into the preparation and adoption of such plans and programmes with a view to promoting sustainable development, by ensuring that an environmental assessment is carried out regarding certain industrial and mining projects which are likely to have significant effects on the environment. For plans and programmes for which the environmental assessment obligation arises simultaneously from this Directive and from other Community legislation, such as the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment, procedures should be coordinated to avoid duplication of assessment. An environmental assessment must be carried out for plans and programmes which are likely to have significant environmental effects. Where an environmental assessment is required by this Directive, an environmental report should be prepared in which the likely significant environmental effects of implementing the project, and reasonable alternatives taking into account the objectives and the geographical scope of the plan or programme, are identified, described and evaluated. All plans and programmes including industrial and mining projects, should harmonize with other plans, particularly in their land use, to minimize environmental effects as far as possible.
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Where the implementation of a plan or programme is likely to have significant effects on the environment, the Direction lays down the requirements of public participation within the implementation of the plan or programme which are subject to preparation and/or adoption by an authority at national, regional or local level. Where the implementation of a plan or programme is likely to have significant effects on the environment in another Member State, there is also a need for trans-boundary consultations, including public participations and information. The Directive contributes to more transparent decision making to ensure a high level of environmental protection. In particular, the environmental report must be made available to the public. The environmental report and the opinions expressed by the public, as well as the results of any trans-boundary consultation, must be taken into account during the preparation of the plan or programme and before its adoption or submission to the legislative procedure. Directive 2003/35/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 May 2003: providing for public participation in respect of the drawing-up of certain plans and programmes relating to the environment. The objective of this Directive providing for public participation in the drawingup of certain plans and programmes relating to the environment is to contribute to the implementation of the obligations arising under the Århus Convention, in particular by: x0003
x0003
providing for public participation in the drawing-up of certain industrial and mining plans and programmes relating to the environment if the public participation is not already required by the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment; and improving the public participation within the permit procedures of industrial facilities regulated by the Directive concerning integrated pollution prevention and control and by the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment.
In summary, this Directive sets significant standards for protection, prevention and improvement of the state of the environment and optimization of disaster forecasting as it promotes public participation within the permit procedures of industrial and mining facilities. Directive 2003/4/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2003: public access to environmental information. This Directive increases public access to environmental information and must be consistent with the Århus-Convention. The dissemination of such information contributes to a greater awareness of environmental matters, a free exchange of views, more effective participation by the public in environmental decision-making and, eventually, to a better environment.
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It should be noted that this Directive does not address public participation within the authorization procedure of industrial facilities. But the Directive does provide, inter alia, the statutory framework for the external emergency plan and obligates the Member States to take necessary measures to ensure that, in the event of an imminent threat to human health or the environment, all information held by or for public authorities (which could enable the public likely to be affected to take measures to prevent or mitigate harm arising from the threat) is disseminated immediately and without delay. Of course, this way of public information is a kind of optimization of disaster forecasting which helps each concerned person to take his individual safety measures.
3. German Law The detailed arrangements for public participation under the above-named Directives, particularly the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain industrial projects on the environment, must be determined by every Member State so as to enable the public concerned to prepare and participate effectively. In German law, the competent authority is required to carry out an environmental impact assessment, which is integrated into the existing licenses procedure of industrial and mining facilities. The environmental impact assessment, including the public participation, must be implemented for projects likely to have significant effects on the environment by virtue, inter alia, of their nature, size or power rating and which are likely to exceed the threshold and limit values set out in the German regulation. Before beginning the license procedure, the competent authority should prepare to identify the scope of all significant effects on the environment which the project is likely to have on humans, fauna and flora, soil, water, air, climate, the landscape and material assets. With the subsequent application for licensing, the operator must supply in an appropriate form the information he needs for carrying out the special project. This includes all planning documentation necessary, particularly an environmental impact study, which describes the likely significant effects of the proposed project, and supply details of the measures envisaged to prevent, reduce, and where possible, offset any significant adverse effects on the environment. Before a license is given, the planning documentation, including the environmental impact study, must be made available to the affected public. This requires that the local public is informed about the following layout of the documentation. Based on this, the public is able to check the documents and establish if they have any concerns about or interests in the planning of the industrial project. Furthermore, the concerned public must get the opportunity to express their opinions and objections to the project at a period of time specified by the authority which will grant the project. The transboundary participation is required in case of the environmental effects of the project across boundaries.
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Finally, the licensing authority must discuss all opinions and objections particularly those made by the public likely to be concerned by the construction and operation of the industrial and mining facility. The affected public which has expressed objections must also be informed separately about this opportunity. Within this procedure, all opinions, objections and adverse environmental effects of the project should to be substantiated. The discussion procedure serves an essential role for the final result made by the competent authority aiming thereby to further the transparency in decision-making, to strengthen public awareness for industrial and mining projects likely to have adverse effects on the environment, and to optimize disaster forecasting. Only after prior assessment of the likely significant environmental effects and of the measures necessary to prevent, reduce and, where possible, to offset these adverse effects, the licensing authority is able to grant the planned project.
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Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany and Their Legal Basis Peter PASCALY Am Blütenhain 5a, D-48163 Münster, Germany Abstract. The Federal Republic of Germany is built of 16 federal states with police authorities of their own in addition to the Federal Police. Besides that the federation has established law providing guidelines to enable the states to enact regulations to install similar auxiliary attachments such as fire departments. As well as these government organizations there are also various and numerous NGOs. The fire brigades are mostly manned with voluntary personnel. Only major cities and big plants have professional fire-fighters. They work together with NGOs in case of a catastrophe under the control of the police authority. Through Fire Protection Demand Plans the needs of the fire brigades of all regions are focused and perform the catastrophe planning and the civil defence. Keywords. Police authorities, fire departments, catastrophe, civil defence, GOs, NGOs
Introduction The Federal Republic of Germany is built as a federal state consisting of 16 states of very different sizes. There are, on the one hand, large states such as Bavaria, Lower Saxony or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and, on the other hand, smaller states such as Saarland or the city states such as Berlin, Hamburg or Bremen, which also differ in size. This division of singular states was established at the foundation of the Federal Republic in 1949 in the Basic Constitutional Law of Germany (Constitution) but the roots of this structure can be traced back to the Middle Ages. The Basic Constitutional Law also established the separation of powers in Germany as well as the division of the responsibilities in the state structure (i.e. federalism). The Federation is, for example, responsible for foreign affairs and for defence. The states, however, are in charge of the police and cultural affairs, for example. An independent federal police force observes the federal borders (such as at airports) as well as federal-owned equipment and property (such as Deutsche Bahn AG). In order to manage and coordinate the different interests of the members of the federation, the legislation transferred a framework competence to the Federation. Therefore, the association remits laws for the jurisprudence in all areas. Implementation, as well as supervision, of the laws is the responsibility of the states. Similar regulations apply to authorities with special tasks.
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1. The Federation In principle, the regulation exists that the police authorities take over the control of measures in a catastrophe situation and provide the organization and the implementation of these measures. This control is organized in a decentralized manner but all measures for catastrophe protection have as their goal the defence against danger. The legal basis for this regulation is the federal civil-defence law which is supplemented through the different fire-protection support-accomplishment laws that each state has implemented slightly differently. These laws allow the use of steering state authorities and the activity of support-organizations such as the Red Cross, for instance. In principle, the Federation becomes active in the area of danger-defence only in the state of war. Exceptions are catastrophic events which are identified according to certain criteria. Examples for these are the cyclone Kyrill in the winter of 2007 or the Elbe flood in 2002. Catastrophe situations of such dimension can only be managed through the use of all forces available. In such a case, an inter-ministerial coordination group meets with the federal office of defence and catastrophe support under the management of the federal Department of the Interior in the common situation centre. This group can raise the alarm with the federal institution technical relief organization (THW) for federally controlled deployments within the whole country and abroad. In the THW there are more than 669 local organizations in all federal states, and 80,000 members are organized on a voluntary basis. The THW is equipped with modern appliances and is able to react in all possible damage cases, such as to water, construction/buildings, electrical systems, gas pipes, and to contain oil spills for example. Furthermore, fresh water can be supplied, emergency power and illumination installed, as well as any kind of rescue missions performed. The Federal government is able to send rapid rescue deployments for catastrophes in foreign countries with the help of the THW (for example, earthquakes in Mexico 1985 or in Iran in December 2003) or for rapid support purposes abroad in the case of disastrous interruption of the water supply, as might be found in the case of earthquakes. The situation centre is also entitled to request the armed forces to provide help in the home country in the case of a catastrophe if all other forces do not have full control of the emergency situation, especially, if the armed forces can make special appliances and teams available.
2. The State of North Rhine-Westphalia All 16 federal states have self-made regional laws regarding catastrophes and fireprotection as well as a rescue service. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for instance, it is called the law of fire protection and aid (FSHG). Besides that the state also adopted a rescue law (namely, RettG NRW). The Department of the Interior of the state and the Department of Health and Social Affairs are responsible for the implementation of these laws. Normally, the activity of the latter department is limited to control and supervision functions. The ministries in most state authorities delegate their tasks to their branches in the states, the district governments or police headquarters. These institutions, without executive power of their own, only possess coordination responsibilities in a catastrophe, and rely on the help from the government district.
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The actual support and rescue activities, and their control, are carried out by members of the local fire brigades of the counties and county-free cities. This authority of the counties and the county-free cities is also incumbent on the planning of fire and catastrophe protection, as well as the protection planning for particularly endangered features. It is this task which becomes more and more important considering the permanent threat of terrorist attacks to exposed and important targets. Such attacks are always spectacular in their effects and can only be repelled through special protection precautions. These precautions must have begun already at the planning phase of the facility, for instance, buildings. Experts are, from a very early stage, involved in fireprotection and other risks. The fire and catastrophe protection within the Federal Republic is organized by the communities which own the local fire brigade. Usually, honorary firemen serve the local fire brigades; only cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have professional firefighters. This cadre of professional fire-fighters in the cities is necessary due to the fact that a large amount of emergency missions are carried out by specialists from the fire brigade. Furthermore, it is not practical for honorary personnel to be alerted and called from their jobs for every small contingency event (for instance a traffic-endangering oil-slick on the road). The fact that catastrophe protection is organized on an honorary basis has the great advantage that a large number of fire-fighters is highly engaged without being employed by the state and for low costs, and it is also attractive to the participants. They can be trained in numerous and frequently-repeated training sessions that disseminate state-of-the-art knowledge. This training takes place in central state facilities. The professional and voluntary fire brigades – e.g. the public fire brigades – are supplemented at particularly endangered facilities, for instance chemical plants or airports, by so-called plant fire-brigades which are government controlled and recognized, and are formed from full-time and part time forces. Works’ fire brigades must fulfil both the protection requirements of their particular businesses and those of the public fire brigade in regard to education and equipment. Works’ fire brigades form the fire brigade of the community in combination with the public fire brigades (professional and voluntary fire brigades). The status of education and the cooperation between works’ fire brigades and public fire brigades is monitored by the district government’s experts regularly. The communities support the counties with the planning of catastrophe-defence tasks and with catastrophe protection itself. This includes taking part in the defenceplanning committees with their regional knowledge and know-how, as well as participating in common catastrophe-protection practices. These hands-on exercises with the special equipment are supplemented by the common training of the staff assuming a catastrophe situation, e.g. crash of an airplane in the outskirts of the community. On such occasions, neighbouring fire brigades exercise a common-danger defence under instruction from experienced experts. Furthermore, the extensive honorary basis of the fire-fighters’ organization has the advantage that many interested participants are ready to support the fire brigade work by their involvement without the fear of professional disadvantages through the cooperation with the fire brigade. This allows the Federal Republic to have 1.3 million honorary fire-fighters available in the event of a catastrophe. Since these personnel come from the whole population, they are very quickly available for an emergency, as follows:
P. Pascaly / Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany 297
• • •
within 15 minutes: 300,000 people; within 30 minutes: 600,000 people; within 60 minutes: 900,000 people.
In this way the Federal Republic, with a total population of approximately 82 million, has more than 1.3 million persons in the active fire brigade service. Among these are 95.6% volunteers, and the proportion of women within the fire brigade is 9.8%. In addition, there are 255,000 forces in the youth fire brigade. The fire brigades have 25,213 fire stations which mainly comprise appliance storage buildings. The operational demands on the fire brigades are very high. Annually, they have 3.5 million deployments, 62.8% of which are by the professional fire brigade and 32.7% by the volunteers. Only 4.5% of all emergency deployments are performed by works’ fire brigades. In order to have state-of-the-art fire-fighting skills, the planning of the fire protection demand is the duty of the community in the so-called Fire Protection Demand Plan since it knows best which equipment is necessary for the required purposes. On this basis, the county/county-free cities focus the needs of the communities in their area and perform the catastrophe planning. The demand registrations of these subordinate catastrophe protectors are implemented in the demand planning by the district governments. The plans are forwarded to the responsible Department of the Interior that, again, assesses the collected demand plans and finally forms a demand plan for the entire country. This planning then forms the basis for the planning of the finance demand for the procurement of tools and the budgeting of the necessary means in the next federal budget. The normal fire cases are usually under the control of the fire brigade from the responsible community. This is also applicable to the rescue tasks with traffic accidents within the community area, unless the accident rescue is delegated to support organizations (NGOs), such as the German Red Cross or Johanniter-Unfallhilfe. In the case of a catastrophe, the county or the county-free city, in whose area the catastrophe occurred, takes over the control of the operation and of the support forces that are provided by the public fire brigades. For this, the county/county-free city has, in addition to the control centre within its service building, also got a mobile command centre available. Both are inter-connected via radio with the support forces. However, the mobile command centre can act closer to accident events. Beside this operational control, there is an emergency task force that coordinates the administration and reconciles the cooperation with the operation control (Fig. 1). In the case of a catastrophe the whole emergency task force meets, headed by a headquarter’s official. This is the mayor when the catastrophe event occurs in a city; it is the District Chief Executive if the event occurs in a county-affiliated community. The personnel of the task force vary depending on the severity of the catastrophe event. Besides administrative personnel from the corresponding county, necessary experts of various disciplines are also consulted, as are specialists of the companies involved in the event. An example for the common action in the catastrophe case is the snow catastrophe in November 2005. In that instance, large quantities of wet snow fell in North RhineWestphalia in the counties of Borken, Coesfeld and Steinfurt, and caused such a severe increase in weight of the overhead high voltage cables that they broke and caused pylons to bend. As a result, large areas of these counties in North Rhine-Westphalia’s most north-western area were without power and with a consequent lack of heat in low
298 P. Pascaly / Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany
Figure 1. Operation control by emergency task forces.
external wintry temperatures. Thus, farmers could not milk their cows and no warm food could be prepared. The task forces of the three counties met and, since the snow catastrophe had occurred across county lines, this meeting also included the responsible district government’s task force in Münster, which is the district capital. The local task forces of the involved counties organized the support and rescue forces from within the county area for and at the damage event, as well as providing support goods and appliances from the respective county area. Also, traffic control in the catastrophe area was managed. The task force of the district president of Münster had central tasks. He coordinated the work of the three county task forces with the three district governments so that they supplemented each other and did not overlap. In addition, he could arrange for help through non-governmental organizations (NGOs), such as the German Red Cross, the Worker-Samaritan-Association, Johanniter-Unfallhilfe and many others, so that helpless people could be brought to a warm shelter, that hospitals could be run, and that field kitchens were managed, for example. In addition, support goods, such as generators for emergency electric power, for the business of electric milking machines, illumination, heaters etc. needed to be moved from other parts of the government district in the concerned county areas. Furthermore, it had the obligation to defend against further dangers and also to organize repair measures of the involved big power-supply companies, as well as local power and utility suppliers. Even after the Cold War has ended, the extension of the civil defence is continued, but with a different standard. Mobile army surgical hospitals with decontamination facilities are intended for each county in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia for 50 injured as well as contaminated people. These military hospitals possess all necessary
P. Pascaly / Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany 299
facilities for the situation, which normal hospitals are not able to provide due to the large numbers of injured people. The district government’s task force can bring further support facilities from the neighbouring counties to the place of the catastrophe at any time. In areas with water bodies (for example, the Rhine) water-rescue facilities are obtained centrally and are held ready in case of emergencies. The catastrophe protection authorities of the state of North-Rhine-Westfalia hold facilities for water treatment and supply available.
3. Conclusion The German authority for catastrophe defence is able to manage all incoming events under the aspects of the legal powers they have. The fire brigades are proud of the voluntary structure of their organisation; they are quick and can react effectively to demands in conjunction with the technical and health organisation. Precautions are been taken to keep the existing standard at this high level.
References Gesetz über den Feuerschutz und die Hilfeleistungen (FSHG) für das Land Nordrhein-Westfalen (Law About Fire Services in North Rhine-Westfalia) vom 10. Februar 1998. – GV. NW. 1998 Seite 122.
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Author Index Alkaz, V. Anke, S. Arghiuş, C. Aronov, A. Aronova, T. Bahnarel, I. Barry, D.L. Blohm, W. Bodnarchuk, T. Boz, L. Buchavy, Y. Chelidze, T. Coldewey, W.G. Coretchi, L. Didur, O. Dolidze, J. Fälsch, M. Gorova, A. Gramatikov, P. Ivana, D. Jobstmann, H. Kaldani, L. Kharytonov, M.M. Klimkina, I. Knaul, J. Kouteva, M. Kulbachko, Y. Lechelt, M. Loza, I. Mărginean, S.
29 66 130 144 144 226 261 66 247 3 216 11 115 226 163 11 77 216 51 89 192 11 122 216 287 144 163 66 163 130
Modoi, O.-C. Nedealkov, S. Ozunu, A. Pakhomov, O. Pascaly, P. Paskaleva, I. Petrescu, D.C. Petrescu-Mag, R.M. Petri, D. PIMS Program Popa, V. Rotariu, Monica Rotariu, Mugurel Rudakov, D.V. Rudolph, T. Sahakyan, K. Seroglazov, R. Spyra, W. Ştefănescu, L. Svanadze, D. Tofan, L. Toma, O. Tsereteli, E. Tsereteli, N. Turkman, A. Uysal, A. Valev, G. Varazanashvili, O. Yevgrashkina, G.P. Zaicenco, A.
130 207 98, 130 163 294 144 98 98 98 241 23 89 89 122 37 267 144 172 130 11 3, 89 3, 23, 89 11 11 278 278 144 11 122 29
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NATO Science for Peace and Security Series This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science for Peace and Security (SPS). The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) Defence Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, Partner and Mediterranean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally “Advanced Study Institutes” and “Advanced Research Workshops”. The NATO SPS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO’s “Partner” or “Mediterranean Dialogue” countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience. Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action. Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and reorganised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E.
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Sub-Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics – Vol. 52
ISSN 1874-6276
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics
Edited by
Ion Apostol Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Moldova
David L. Barry Director, DLB Environmental, Cranleigh, Surrey, United Kingdom
Wilhelm G. Coldewey University of Münster, Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Department of Applied Geology, Germany
and
Dieter W.G. Reimer UWIK-CONSULTING, Bonn, Germany
Amsterdam • Berlin • Tokyo • Washington, DC Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics Chisinau, Moldova 7–10 April 2008
© 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-1-58603-948-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008944037 Publisher IOS Press BV Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail: [email protected] Distributor in the UK and Ireland Gazelle Books Services Ltd. White Cross Mills Hightown Lancaster LA1 4XS United Kingdom fax: +44 1524 63232 e-mail: [email protected]
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved.
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Preface Following the very successful Workshop (ARW) in April 2007, which was structured on the basis of the ever-increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters in the region, the second ARW was convened on 7–10 April 2008 in Chisinau, Moldova. This was aimed at further supplementing the efforts to transfer technology and knowledge and so help decrease the vulnerability of the population to both natural and man-made disasters. As the Moldova–NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) has foreseen, the follow-up ARW tried to unify the efforts of the scientific community in creating a greater understanding of the various threats to society and the environment. Thus, this ARW had the task of further evaluating accumulated European theoretical knowledge and practical experience in the relevant fields of concern so that practical recommendations can be developed for the prevention and mitigation of disasters. The agenda consisted of about 30 presentations (from ten countries), and discussions, that addressed a wide range of disaster-management regimes. The principal themes focused (for a series of typical disaster scenarios) on how these disasters can affect both the human and natural environments. Accordingly, the presentations and syndicate discussions covered the following areas of concern: natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods; man-made disasters such as accidents at mining and tailings dams; nuclear/radiological facilities; transport accidents involving hazardous materials; fires; and environmental contamination. Monitoring and the assessment of health and environmental pollution risks, as well as the communication of these risks to the public, were also discussed. The essence of the various themes centred on the integrated techniques for predicting, measuring and assessing the various physical, environmental, health and social risks, and how these risks might be prevented or at least mitigated. The ARW again recognised the complex inter-relationships between several of the key factors that must be involved, to varying degrees of sophistication, in the overall management of the range of hazards and their associated risks. These factors include: monitoring; risk and other modelling exercises; control measures (such as licensing); public liaison and information management (including education); and cost-benefit assessments. The scientific content of the presentations, and the subsequent written papers, were thus focused on: risk assessment as part of national policies regarding protection of man and environment; the need for strong co-operation at international and national levels; using a cost–benefit approach; information sharing and networking; and vulnerability as a moderating factor in risk assessment. The presentations appeared to be very useful especially to those partner countries that are developing their legal framework in civil emergency planning as well as in environmental protection. (Some participating countries, such as Moldova, the Ukraine and Georgia, are aligning their legal frameworks to EU directives and other international standards.) The ARW contributions reflected the extensive experience in the participating countries (namely, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Germany, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the Ukraine, together with a further written paper from the Netherlands) in the field of combating natural and man-made
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disasters, as well as how their secondary impacts should be assessed and adapted to the specific conditions in the Republic of Moldova. In the opinion of the ARW participants there is a continuing need to convene similar more dedicated follow-up ARWs, with the aim of gaining a greater understanding of further specific topics, such as environmental and health monitoring, drought conditions, and the role of land-use planning, in mitigating the effects of natural disasters and preventing man-made disasters.
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Contents Preface
v
Theme 1. Land-Based Hazards/Risks Forecasting and Preventing Disasters from Natural or Man-Made Fires in Forest Areas Lăcrămioara Boz, Lavinia Tofan and Ovidiu Toma Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia T. Chelidze, N. Tsereteli, E. Tsereteli, L. Kaldani, J. Dolidze, O. Varazanashvili and D. Svanadze A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests: Prediction and Prevention of Natural and Man-Made Disasters Valentin Popa and Ovidiu Toma GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings Anton Zaicenco and Vasile Alkaz Actuarial Risk Management Through Geological Risk-Geoinformation Systems (RiskGIS) T. Rudolph
3 11
23 29
37
Theme 2. Water-Based Hazards/Risks Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection Plamen Gramatikov
51
Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning Stephan Anke, Werner Blohm and Michael Lechelt
66
Cost-Benefit in Water Hazard Management Marcel Fälsch
77
The Environmental Benefits from the Treatment of Waste Water and Slime Derived from Crude Water Preconditioning at S.C. CET Iaşi S.A. Mugurel Rotariu, Dorin Ivana, Lavinia Tofan, Monica Rotariu and Ovidiu Toma Economic and Legal Aspects Related to the Prevention and Mitigation of Flood Risks and Their Consequences for Tirlisua (Bistrita-Nasaud): A Case Study from Northern Romania Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag, Dacinia Crina Petrescu, Doina Petri and Alexandru Ozunu
89
98
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Theme 3. Mining/Industrial Hazards/Risks Emergency Planning for Tailings Dams Wilhelm G. Coldewey Environmental Protection Measure Assessment in Affected Area of Ponds Collecting Waste Mine-Water in Western Donbass Galyna P. Yevgrashkina, Dmytro V. Rudakov and Mykola M. Kharytonov Management of Risks Associated with Mining Wastes (Tailings Dams and Waste Heaps) Oana-Cristina Modoi, Lucrina Ştefănescu, Sanda Mărginean, Corina Arghiuş and Alexandru Ozunu Some Results from Dynamic Monitoring Linked to Mining: Case Studies in Bulgaria (Provadia) and Belarus (Starobin) I. Paskaleva, A. Aronov, G. Valev, R. Seroglazov, M. Kouteva and T. Aronova
115
122
130
144
Mining Dump Rehabilitation: The Potential Role of Bigeminate-Legged Millipeds (Diplopoda) and Artificial Mixed-Soil Habitats O. Pakhomov, Y. Kulbachko, O. Didur and I. Loza
163
The Potential of Liquid Rocket Fuel for Regional Catastrophes and Prevention Solutions Wolfgang Spyra
172
Contaminated Sites – Risk Management in Austria Heide Jobstmann
192
Theme 4. Health/Radiological Hazards/Risks Radio-Ecological Monitoring in Moldovan Agricultural Industry as a Factor for Forecasting, Evaluating and Mitigating the Impacts of Radiological Pollution of Agricultural Land Semion Nedealkov
207
The Cytogenetic Status of Human Organism as a Diagnostic Parameter in a System of Socio-Ecological Monitoring Alla Gorova, Irina Klimkina and Yury Buchavy
216
Medical and Biological Aspects of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Influence on the Population of the Republic of Moldova Liubov Coretchi and Ion Bahnarel
226
Theme 5. Hazard/Risk Communication/Public Participation PIMS as a Communication Tool Between PfP Nations in Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness PIMS Program Licensing of Hazardous Industries and Public Participation in the Ukraine Tetyana Bodnarchuk
241 247
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Man-Made Disaster Prevention: The Role of Risk Assessment in Development Control D.L. Barry
261
International Cooperation for Emergency Warning and Prevention of Catastrophes in Kura River Basin Kristine Sahakyan
267
Communication Problems During an Emergency and Lessons Learned Aysen Turkman and Ayla Uysal
278
Public Participation and Information Through the Licensing Phase of Industrial Facilities to Optimize Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures Juliane Knaul
287
Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany and Their Legal Basis Peter Pascaly
294
Author Index
301
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Theme 1 Land-Based Hazards/Risks
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-3
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Forecasting and Preventing Disasters from Natural or Man-made Fires in Forest Areas Lăcrămioara BOZ 1 , Lavinia TOFAN 2, Ovidiu TOMA 3* 1
Faculty of Law, Centre of Studies – Focúani, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Lunii Street no. 6, BRASOV / ROMANIA, Tel. (+40 268) 319 806; Fax (+40 268) 319 948; E-mail: [email protected]; http:// www.universitateagbaritiu.ro 2
3*
Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Gh. Asachi Technical University of Iaúi, Bd. D. Mangeron, nr. 71 A, IASI/ ROMANIA, Tel (+40 232) 278680; E-mail: [email protected]
Faculty of Biology, Department of Molecular and Experimental Biology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Bd. Carol I , no. 20 A , 700505 IASI / ROMANIA Tel. (+40 232) 201630 ; Fax (+40 232) 201472; http://www.bio.uaic.ro; E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. This paper is intended as an 'alarm signal' for the preservation of the two priceless valuables, human life and the environment. It is essential for this approach to empower the idea of rendering everybody responsible for all factors in the sense that they should extend to individuals’ efforts as well as to team efforts in order to preserve life and the environment. This is achieved by complying with prevention regulations for fire hazards in forest areas and also by proper behaviour concerning the warning, evacuation and saving people in a forest area on fire. In addition, the article aims to render public opinion sensitive enough to understand that forest fires are disasters that can be avoided, or at least limited, and carrying forward positive results is entirely in man’s power. Keywords. disasters, forest fires, education, forecasting, prevention
Introduction Disasters always occur and they threaten the world population more and more often and with increasing power. Besides, those due to natural causes, such as earthquakes, unstable ground, avalanches, drought, floods, hurricanes, and tornados, there are also on-going man-made disasters caused by nuclear accidents, the testing of certain types of ammunition used in military operations, pollution under various forms, massive forest clearing, and the setting on fire of thousands of hectares of forests. All these aggravate the phenomenon of global warming and its major effects on the irreversible damage on the ozone layer [1-7]. Natural disasters are due to inevitable natural phenomena and they are impossible to prevent, while disasters due to irresponsible or indifferent human behaviour can be limited or even eradicated. Losses of any kind from disasters are huge: human lives,
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material damage and environmental deterioration. Some disasters could be prevented so that the negative effects can be minimal [8-12].
1. General Considerations The deterioration of the environment caused by man can not only cause the destruction of ecological equilibrium, but also implies a response on the part of the environment – which is qualitatively altered – against humans. The new environmental conditions thus created are less favourable to a healthy life. In the following examples the emphasis will be laid on disasters caused by both nature and man whose consequences, regardless their origin, are of huge impact, that is, for instance, forest fires (Photo 1), which can be considered a real crime against the environment.
Photo 1 – Forest fire [13] Modern society, continuously challenged by change, acknowledges the priceless value of forests as a refuge and way of relaxation, and for its property of ensuring lifeneeded oxygen. Unfortunately, not all beneficiaries have regard for these sanctuaries of nature. The price of their reckless and indifferent acts most often leads to real catastrophes. Creating a fire in the forest and leaving the place without having extinguished it or doing it improperly, throwing a cigarette at random, uncovering a fire without warning the authorities about its existence or, even worse, committing arson in a forest area, are actions that can turn forests into torches. The fire is an event that escapes one’s control as far as its spreading, intensity and duration are concerned and that is why it requires the professional intervention of firefighters who have proper equipment and techniques, as well as the tactics, necessary to approach such emergencies (Photo 2).
L. Boz et al. / Forecasting and Preventing Disasters from Natural or Man-Made Fires in Forest Areas
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Photo 2 – The intervention of firemen [13] A fire will break out whenever three conditions are met: air, a source of heat (flame), and combustible matter (solid, liquid or gas). If one of these conditions is no longer fulfilled, the fire is extinguished, as the flame is no longer fed. The source of heat may be natural (such as lightening or volcanic lava) or man-made. Most cases of forest fire hazard are due to drought and very hot summer temperatures (known as canicula) – the forest, because of its wooden matter (i.e. trees), may be considered as combustible in its entirety. The fire can burn both live vegetation, such as trees, branches and leaves, and similar dead vegetation. A forest fire is classified as such when it causes a minimum area of 1ha to be destroyed. The causes of forest fires are natural or anthropogenic. The influence of natural factors is explained by weather conditions and the characteristics of a particular type of vegetation. Summer periods, characterized by drought and strong winds, are favourable to the breaking out of fires, as the wind makes the soil dry faster and increases the risk that the fire could propagate a long distance. The heat dries the vegetation and, by evaporation, the volatile essences that ensure the propagation of fire are released into the atmosphere. Lightning and the incandescent projectiles from erupting volcanoes are also natural factors originating fires (Photo 3).
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Photo 3 – The fight with fire [13] The human factor is also a cause of fires because of improper behaviour as far as prevention regulations are concerned, that is to say owing to some people’s behaviour (such as smoking or using fires for cooking) during entertainment activities. Besides carelessness and indifference to forest fires, what is also especially dangerous is the intentional act of setting on fire – arson – a forest for reasons that could not possibly extenuate the gravity of such a crime. In recent years, the news on disasters due to forest fires has been continuously brought to public attention by mass media. In Portugal, a country with activities in the wood industry at a European level, had losses from fires that amounted to €1 billion and, of course, with catastrophic effects on human life and environmental damage. The Greek authorities called the devastating fire of 2007 'Europe’s unprecedented catastrophe'. Despite all the efforts and forces engaged in this terrible fight, the fire laid waste a large part of Greece and the scientists stated that the loss of the forest area equalled the effect on the atmosphere of the overnight doubling of the number of cars, and that it is also an essential loss for the natural cooling system. In Peru, a fire quickly propagated to the forested sides of the Urubamba valley and endangered Machu Picchu, the ancient Inca city. The firemen intervened with great difficulty because of the uneven ground and the wind, and thick smoke prevented the helicopters and planes from spreading extinguishing substances. In Oregon, USA, over 200,000ha of forest burnt in 2002; in Belgrade and Kosovo, Serbia, over 300,000ha of forest burnt and the fires broke out in several places simultaneously. In 2003 in Australia, fire destroyed an area three times larger than Great Britain and quickly spread because of the canicula and the gusts of wind; it burnt to the ground the houses
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of the inhabitants, even killing people, despite the desperate efforts of thousands of firemen sent out on a mission to stop the fire. The examples may continue and, as shown, all areas in the world are potentially affected. A forest fire, regardless of its cause, is devastating and very hard to beat, as the circumstances are always difficult: uneven ground, places out of reach, intervention forces which are hardly enough when compared with the intensity and extent of the fire, favouring conditions such as heat, drought, high wind, lack of water, and deficiency of equipment (such as special-need vehicles, helicopters and planes). In Romania in 2007, every region of the country faced forest fires (Photo 4).
Photo 4 – 'Slaughtered nature' [13] Yearly almost 350ha of forest are lost in fires in Romania, the damage being most significant if the long-term effects are also taken into account: the extinction of flora and fauna which, needless to say, sometimes include rare species, the alteration of both environment and landscape, and the loss of human lives.
2. Control Materials and Methods The intervention of firemen, besides the use of special-need vehicles (Photo 5), also involves the use of tools such as shovels, big brooms, sandbags, and rubber rugs to extinguish the fire on the ground.
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Photo 5 – The use of special-need vehicles [13] Because of the catastrophe that happened in Greece, with more than 65 victims and over 200,000ha of forest burnt to ashes, and all the other forest fires in Europe, in the autumn of 2007 the European Union discussed the creation of a European Civil Protection Force designed to intervene in the case of a disaster on the territory of any Member State.
3. Results and Discussions Based on the information so far presented, several question arise naturally: x0003 What should be done? x0003 What are the steps to be taken in order to avoid such catastrophes? and x0003 What are the rules with which one must comply in order to reduce fire hazard? In order to prevent forest fires from happening it is utterly important to convey recommendation-type information concerning the behaviour of citizens (adults as well as minors) and their education should focus on the way in which disasters can be prevented.
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The first step in this direction is to comply with the specific safety procedures: x0003 the training of personnel involved in any activity in forest areas on wood exploitation; x0003 maintenance of forests with stress on safety regulations in the event of fire; x0003 the organization of patrol intense-rhythm activities during drought periods; x0003 good maintenance of forest roads so as to allow quick and easy movement of the special-need vehicles and intervention forces (Photo 5); x0003 ensuring water supplies by building accesses and arranging car platforms; x0003 appropriating forest ranges with means of first intervention (such as sand, shovels and big brooms); and x0003 planning pleasure spots and placing panels showing the main regulations for preventing and extinguishing forest fires. Of course, the most important measure is that of educating people on what the prevention regulations are and how one is expected to properly behave in case of forest fire, namely: x0003 remain calm; x0003 if a member of a group (tourists etc.) then do not panic the others; x0003 leave the area immediately; x0003 inform immediately the inhabitants about the fire; x0003 call 112 – Dispatcher’s Office for Emergencies and give the most accurate information possible; inform the authorities if there are any group of tourists or forest workers in the area in order to locate and evacuate them as well; x0003 if someone’s clothes take fire, roll the person on the ground and stifle his or her clothes; x0003 if the air becomes unbreathable due to thick smoke, crawl (on one’s knees and elbows); and help children, the old and the disabled to be evacuated first. A forest fire always exceeds the capacity of one or two persons to extinguish it and that is why they should not waste time in trying to do so, but should inform the intervention forces as soon as possible. Also, they must warn all the people met on their way out of that area in order to give them the chance to save themselves by leaving the place immediately.
4. Conclusions To prevent a forest fire or to make all the efforts to inform the intervention forces in due time is a duty of honour of every citizen, regardless of his or her citizenship, ethnicity or reason for being in that place – as inhabitant or tourist. It is everyone’s right and duty to watch over a healthy environment for both present and future generations.
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References [1] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Educatie úi prevenire, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation “SIGPROT 2005”, 8th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2005, 144 -149 Bucharest, Romania [2] Boz Lăcrămioara, Dan Marciuc, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Concursuri de desene, “Pompierii români” review, 7/2005/, Bucharest, Romania [3] Boz Lăcrămioara, Dan Marciuc, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Rolul conlucrării cu O.N.G.-urile în educaĠiaúsi prevenirea incendiilor, “Pompierii ieúeni” review, 2005, 4th year, no. 4, Iasi, Romania [4] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, EducaĠia úi prevenirea incendiilor în unităĠile de învăĠământ”, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation “SIGPROT 2006”, 9th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2006, 47-53, Bucharest, Romania [5] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, Împreună pentru siguranĠa copiilor, “Salvatorii ieúeni” review, 2006, ”, 5th year 5, no. 2, Iasi, Romania [6] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, SituaĠii de urgenĠă – educaĠie úi prevenire în mediul rural, Proceedings of the scientific meeting with international participation, “SIGPROT 2007”, 10th Edition, Alexandru Ioan Cuza Police Academy, Faculty for Firemen, Printech Publishing, 2007, Bucharest, Romania [7] Boz Lăcrămioara, George BariĠiu University of Braúov, Romania, VacanĠă în siguranĠă, “Salvatorii ieúeni” review, 2007, 6th year, no. 2, Iasi, Romania [8] Toma, Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Consortium Regional de Recherche Moldova - pour la Monitorisation et Protection d’Environnement – pour une meilleure gestion de la biodiversité, Conférence internationale, sous le haut patronage de Monsieur Jacques Chirac, Président de la République française, et de Monsieur Koïchiro Matsuura, Directeur général de l'UNESCO, “Biodiversite: science et gouvernance”, 2005, UNESCO, Paris, France [9] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life, the World Conference on Ecological Restoration “Ecological Restoration – A Global Challenge”, 2005, Zaragoza, Spain [10] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The Moldavian University Regional Consortium for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life and for student service improvement, 1st Biennial Conference of the International EcoHealth and Ecology, “EcoHealth ONE: Forging Collaboration between Ecology and Health”, University of Wisconsin, 2006, Wisconsin-Madison, USA [11] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Recherche régionale pour la monitorisation et protection de l’environnement, gestion biodiversité, journees scientifiques “Recherche et développement durable: approches, méthodologies, stratégies d’action et de formation”, Centre de Recherches et de Transferts Technologies de l’Université Abdelhamid IBN BADIS-Chemin des CretesMostaganem, 2006, Mostaganem, Algeria [12] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Research Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions because of the prevention of natural and human ecological catastrophes, NATO Security through Science Book, IOS Press, 2007, 1, Amsterdam, Holland [13] *** www.igsu.ro (photos)
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-11
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Multiple Risk Assessment for Various Natural Hazards for Georgia T. CHELIDZE, N. TSERETELI, E. TSERETELI, L. KALDANI, J. DOLIDZE, O. VARAZANASHVILI and D. SVANADZE Department of Seismology and Experimental Physics, Institute of Geophysics, Alecidze Nr 1, 0171, Tbilisi, Georgia
Abstract. The critical importance of accurate mapping and assessment of natural hazards and risks is discussed, which hazards and risks relate not only to seismic events but also to floods and avalanches, and their consequences. Accurate mapping is crucial in the early warning process and there is evidence of considerable discrepancies in previous mapping efforts. These discrepancies can have major economic effects on, for example, investment potential and insurance factors. Thus, hazards must be more accurately defined and risk assessments must be based on multi-risk calculation methods. Keywords. Georgia, earthquake, avalanche, landslide, debris flow, flash flood, population density, multiple risks, risk discrepancies
Introduction The sustainable development of the Southern Caucasus (SC) region depends critically on the correct assessment of natural hazards that are characteristic for different areas of this mountainous region: earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, flash-floods and floods, and avalanches. The destruction caused in recent decades by strong seismic events (such as Spitak, Racha, Tbilisi and, Baku) and other natural hazards, has seriously affected the national economies of the SC countries. The rate of risks associated with these hazards increases every year due to the appearance of new complicated technological features such as oil and gas pipelines, communication lines, large dams, power stations, and chemical factories. The GIS-technology, together with space images, allows exact mapping of such risks and the assessment of integrated effects. For example, earthquakes induce many secondary effects that may cause even larger damage than the event itself. Combining maps of seismic hazard with maps of landslide-prone areas, lakes, and large engineering features, gives the chance to evaluate integrated hazards and risks. Exact cartography of hazards is very important for planning investments and insurance activities, as well as for providing for the safety of the population of the region. The topic is in full agreement with main priorities of Hyogo Framework of Action, namely to identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. The framework also calls for the promotion of: regional programmes, including technical cooperation; capacity enhancement; the development of methodologies and standards for hazard and vulnerability monitoring and assessment; the sharing of information;
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and the effective mobilization of resources. This work was initiated by the specifically devised programme of EUR-OPA: GIS Mapping of Integrated Major Hazards in the Southern Caucasus as the early warning tool and From Hazards to Risks – Comparative analysis of Assessment Techniques in the South Caucasus region. According to the programme scientists from Georgia compiled GIS-based maps at a scale of 1:000 000 for five hazards (namely, earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, avalanches and flashfloods) because they cause the largest mortality and economic losses.
1. Disaster Cartography as an Early Warning Tool At present the concept of early warning is considered as one of the main directions in disaster management and the importance of such systems was confirmed by the recent Sumatra earthquake and tsunami. At the same time it is clear that an early warning is possible only for some specific hazards, such as tsunamis, hurricanes and storms, when the source and propagation details are known exactly. For most disasters (such as earthquakes, landslides, volcano eruptions, debris flows, etc.) that information is partially or totally absent. The early warning of strong seismic events, based on the difference of propagation velocities of elastic waves and triggered electromagnetic signal, gives too short (from several to dozen of seconds) a warning time for realization of preventive activities and is quite expensive. That is why we think that the concept of early warning systems should include the probabilistic assessment/mapping of hazards and the recurrence period. This approach allows the implementation of activities which reduce considerably the losses and casualties. To develop that approach it is necessary to have the statistical information on disasters as well as effective monitoring system.
2. Mapping of Mass-Movement Potential on the Territory of Georgia: Criteria for Destabilization The landslide and debris flow static zoning of Georgia is based on the integrated analysis of main factors, which upset the balance of forces and destroy the existing state of equilibrium. There are three main factors: (i) the state and properties of rocks, which defines the sensitivity of geological formations to impacting forces; (ii) the geometry and slope of the terrain (i.e. topography); and (iii) the climatic characteristics of the territory. For landslide-hazard mapping the criterion of “Landslide potential” was used and the intensity of landslide processes on the given area of a definite climatic zone, is characterized by the following two coefficients: (i) coefficient of areal damage (Kp) which is the ratio of (a) area damaged by landslides Fp to (b) the entire area (F) of a given homogeneous geological space: Kp = Fp/F (ii) the “density” of landslide events (D) namely, the number of landslides (N) normalized to the same area F: D = N/F
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Figure 1. Landslide hazard zones in Georgia.
Both these coefficients vary in the range from 0 to 1. Their average values gives the integrated characteristic of landslide hazard (maximum is 1). Landslide hazard zones are delineated according to following rules (Fig. 1): high >0.5 medium 0.1–0.5 low 0.001–0.1 no or very low ≤0.001. Besides these stationary factors, mass-movements can be stimulated by short-term perturbations, such as earthquakes, intensive meteorological impact and man-made effects. The time-dependence in the static maps can be introduced by taking into account the deviation of meteorological parameters from the long term average (LTA), mainly considering the intensity and duration of deviation. Accordingly, the following three situations can be distinguished: ‘stable’, ‘normal’ and ‘extreme’. The ‘stable’ situation is expected when the precipitation and air humidity is less than the long-term average. The situation is ‘normal’ (i.e. background state) if the deviation is small; say if the precipitation exceeds the long term average by no more than 100mm per year. The ‘extreme’ situation is expected when precipitation exceeds the LTA by 200–400 mm. For assessment of debris flow hazards (Fig. 2) a combination of several parameters is used, namely: (i) ratio of total length of debris-flow generating rivers (∑l) to the total length of a given river basin (L): Ks1 = ∑l/L; (ii) ratio of number of generating rivers of debris flow basin (∑n) to the number of rivers of a given basin, where debris flow events were not registered (n): Ks2 = ∑n/n;
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Figure 2. Debris flow and mudflow hazard zones in Georgia.
(iii) ratio of total area of debris-flow generating rivers (∑f) to the total area a given river basin (F): Ks3 = ∑f/F; and (iv) ratio of total area of active debris-flow sources that feed generating rivers (∑s) to the total area of these river basins (F): Ks4 = ∑s/F.
3. Mapping of Flash-Flood and Flood Hazards in Georgia The orography (i.e. the nature of the mountainous terrain) of the territory is of decisive value in assessing flash-flood and flood hazards. The flooding of a river basin can be caused by: (i) melting of snow cover, especially when the air temperature is rising fast and there is intensive rain; (ii) heavy showers in the summer/autumn period; (iii) incessant autumn rains, covering large part of a river basin; and (iv) intensive winter rains of short duration in the seaside areas of the Black Sea. For the South Caucasus the most typical hazards are rivers with springtides, rivers with high waters in the warm period of a year, and rivers with flood flows. Maximal water discharge during such anomalous events can be almost 30 times larger than the average annual water discharge. The critical values of precipitation per 12 hours that cause disastrous water flows, and flooding in rivers and dry ravines are:
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Figure 3. Flash flood hazard zones in Georgia.
(i) in the seaside regions of Western Georgia > 130 mm; (ii) in the central and western part of Colchis lowland and adjoining mountains slopes >100 mm; (iii) in the remaining part of Western Georgia, on the Southern slopes of Larger Caucasus >80 mm; and (iv) in the remaining part of Eastern Georgia – 60 mm. Using these critical values, the recurrence rates of disastrous heavy rains are calculated and corresponding flash-flood hazard maps are compiled (Fig. 3). recurrence once in less than 6 years; High > 16%: Medium 8–16%: recurrence once in 6–12 years; Low 4–8%: recurrence once in 12–25 years; and No or very low < 4%: recurrence once in 25 years. 4. Avalanche Zoning of Georgia For avalanche hazard zoning of Georgia the following two quantitative parameters are used: • •
“density” of avalanche sources, namely, the number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley (n/L); and recurrence rate of avalanche events, namely, the number of avalanches generated by a given source in ten years (ni/100).
For mapping of sources the results of numerous expeditions carried out for many years are used and for the assessment of recurrence the data is obtained from meteorological stations. These data allow development of theoretical prognostic method. The following gradation of avalanche hazard is developed: high, medium, low and no hazard (Fig. 4). A ‘high’ hazard grade corresponds to the following criteria: the
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Figure 4. Avalanche hazard zones in Georgia.
Table 1. Distribution of high, medium and low avalanche hazards Avalanche hazard
Georgia F (km2)
%
High (H)
10,700
15
Medium (M)
12,000
17
Low (L)
12,900
19
Σ (H+M+L)
35,600
51
No hazard
34,100
49
Σ
69,700
100
number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley exceeds 5 (n/L > 5), and the recurrence rate of avalanche events exceeds 10 in 10 years (ni/100 > 10). A ‘medium’ avalanche hazard is recognized in areas where the number of avalanche sources per kilometre of valley is less than 5 (n/L < 5) and/or the recurrence rate of avalanche events is less than 10 in ten years (ni/100 < 10). The avalanche hazard is ‘low’ if the number of avalanche sources per one kilometre of valley is less than 1 (n/L < 1) and the recurrence rate of avalanche events is less than 1 in 10 years (n i/100 < 1). “No or very low” hazard zone is free of avalanches (no hazard). In Georgia the area prone to avalanche hazard covers 33% of the territory. Table 1 shows the distribution of high, medium and low avalanche hazard in the region.
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Figure 5. Population density map.
5. Principles of Multi-Risk Calculations for Natural Hazards: The Case of Georgia A risk index related to total economic losses was estimated for Georgia and the technique used can be applied in the future to the whole territory of the South Caucasus. Five types of hazard (earthquake, landslide, debris flow, avalanche and flash flood) were considered for the period 1980–2005. The distribution of risk index by hazard type is based on the method developed by the Columbia University group during compilation of the Map of Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots (Synthesis Report – Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, 2005). The investigated territory of Georgia was divided on a 2.5′ × 2.5′ latitudelongitude grid, with each grid considered as a unit area. According to the mentioned method, the risk assessment is based on two data sets: population (Fig. 5), and total Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per unit area (Fig. 6). For Georgia the GDP is not available for unit areas but only for sub-national units and territorial entities. There are some data that show the share in total GDP of territorial entities from the corresponding district centre. The national macro-economic parameters were calculated by the Ministry of Economical Development of Georgia in 2005. This allowed the estimation of GDP for district centre units. These estimates were applied to population densities using the description of population in 2002 as supplied by the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economical Development of Georgia. The following quantities were calculated: 1. 2.
The total economic losses, estimated from 1980–2005 for each hazard – E i. The total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the areas affected by the i-th hazard was estimated for the period 2002 – GDPi.
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Figure 6. GDP density map.
3.
The regional economic loss rate Ri was computed for the i-th hazard: Ri = Ei / GDPi
4.
For each grid cell that falls into a hazard zone, the local expected economic loss was calculated: Eij = Ri * GDPj
5.
6.
7.
where GDPj is taken per unit area. As mentioned above, we applied GDP of district centre units to the map of population density. Rural areas also were not taken into account. The poverty headcounts (PH) in districts was estimated by UNDP in Georgia (Poverty mapping in Georgia. 2003). PH measures the share of the population for which consumption or income is less than the poverty line. As GDP for Georgia is applied to the population density, we decided to take into account the PH for districts multiplied the GDP of districts by the parameter (1 – PH n), where ‘n’ denote the districts. The degree of hazard was expressed, in our case, in terms of frequency for earthquakes (i.e. regional economic loss rate multiplied by hazardous event frequency Ω) and the exposed area. The accumulated economic loss in the grid cell is: Eij = Ri * Ωj * GDPj. For other natural hazards the degree of hazards was expressed instead of the frequency (as we do not have frequency for those hazards) in terms of the gradation of corresponding hazard maps, the gradations of ‘no or very low’, ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ were assigned values of 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. The resulting weighted economic loss (EL) from hazard I is:
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Figure 7. Earthquake total economic loss.
ν
Eij* = Eij * Ei / ∑ Eij , i =1
8.
where ν is the number of grid cells in the area exposed to hazard i. The economic loss – multi-hazard disaster risk index (RI) can be sum of the single-hazard economic losses (in our case for five hazard) in the grid cell: 5
RI =
∑E
* ij
.
i
The risk indices for these five hazards are expressed in deciles. The top three deciles of cells were chosen for calculation of the summary multi-hazard risk index (Figs 7–12). As mentioned above the risk index was calculated for the period 1980– 2005. (Due to the difficult political situation the risk index was not calculated for the Abkhazeti region.) It is evident that the risk index map differs considerably from the hazard maps, as it takes into consideration such additional parameters as GDP and population density.
6. Conclusions There are big discrepancies in hazard and risk assessments, in particular, for the Caucasus region in different World Disaster Maps (for example, between Global Natural Disaster Hotspots Map and the Map of Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program GSHAP and World Map of Natural Disasters of Munich Group). According to the Hotspot Map, the Southern Caucasus is prone only to hydro-meteorological hazards while
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Figure 8. Landslide total economic loss.
Figure 9. Debris flow total economic loss.
the Northern Caucasus is subject to geophysical and hydro-hazards. Geophysical hazards include earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides. If it can be accepted that the hydrohazards for the both regions are the same, the relative assessment of geophysical hazards, namely earthquakes and landslides, the calculated risk for these two parts of Caucasus is wrong. The landslide risks for both parts of Caucasus are approximately the same and the seismic activity of Southern Caucasus is larger than in the North. The
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Figure 10. Flood total economic loss.
Figure 11. Avalanche total economic loss.
sources of Hotspot Map Assessments were GSHAP maps for PGA and the database of EQ of M > 4.5 occurred in 1976–2002 from the Advanced National System EQ Catalogue. It is easy to see that the GSHAP map gives for the PGA in the North mainly in the range 0.2–0.3 g and for the South – in the range 0.2–0.4 g. The number of EQ of M > 4.5 is three times larger in Southern compared to Northern Caucasus. Besides, recurrence times of M > 4.5 EQ-s in the North and South are approximately the same.
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Figure 12. High total economic loss.
Thus it is concluded that during the compilation of the Hotspot map the input data were not analyzed correctly and the map needs serious revision in Caucasus region. Earthquake risks are much larger for the countries of South Caucasus, which contradicts the Hotspot Map assessments which states that this region is prone only to hydrological risks. These discrepancies may cause serious difficulties for investors and insurance companies. It is concluded that it is of major importance to refine hazard and risk assessments for South Caucasus using detailed local data.
References Editor: Chelidze, T., 2006–2007. ATLAS of GIS-based maps of natural disaster hazards for the Southern Caucasus (earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, avalanches and flash-floods). van Westen, C., van Asch, T. and Soeters, R., 2006 Landslide Hazard and Risk Zonation – why is it still so difficult? Bull. Eng. Geol. Env., 65; 167–184. Dilley, M., Chen, R., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lem, A., Arnold, M. et al., 2005. Natural Disasters Hotspots: a Global Risk Analysis. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/. Poverty mapping in Georgia. 2003. UNDP Country Office in Georgia. World Map of Natural Hazards. http://www.munichre.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-23
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A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests: Prediction and Prevention of Natural and Man-Made Disasters Valentin POPA a,* and Ovidiu TOMA b Forest Engineer, Executive Director – Association of Landowners “Asociaţia Obştilor Vrâncene”, Năruja, 627 220, Vrancea/Romania Tel. (+40 237)677 017; Fax (40 237)677 017 b Professor PhD., Faculty of Biology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Bd. Carol I, no. 20 A, 700505 Iasi/Romania Tel. (+40 232) 201630; Fax (+40 232) 201472; http://www.bio.uaic.ro; http://www.bio.uaic.ro/content/view/46/43/ E-mail: [email protected] a
Abstract. The sustainable management of forests is the key to preventing disasters, both natural and man-made. A healthy community activity fulfils, by means of education and responsibility, the concept of sustainable development. Keywords. Sustainable management, forest, prediction, prevention, manmade disasters
Introduction The mountain area of Vrancea County in Romania is known as being an area with a high potential for disasters. The region which represents the epicentre of the highest intensity earthquakes in Romania actually overlaps this area. The large hydrographical basins cause the collection of huge quantities of pluvial water which can lead to extensive floods in the plain areas of the county (Photo 1). The erosion phenomena are facilitated by the friable, unstable layer of stones. The distribution of the geological layers facilitates landfalls over extensive areas, followed by the shaping of temporary and unstable reservoirs. The channels are permanently affected by these landfalls and by the flash floods during the summer.
1. General Considerations Global climate changes increase the possibility of disasters in the area [1–4]. Uncontrolled deforestation of large areas may lead to instability in the forest medium, risking the safety of the people living in the surrounding communities (Photo 2 and 3). *
Corresponding Author: E-mail: [email protected]
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Photo 1. Maximal level of the floods.
Photo 2. Deforestation.
The intense downpours, with more than 110 l/m2 over a period of 2–3 hours, can cause the destruction of more than 60% of communication routes. The large volume of infiltrated water determines its penetration into the surface layer of the soil. The land-
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Photo 3. Effects of deforestation.
falls on surfaces of 20–100 ha determine the formation on the river bed of barrages of silt slime which give birth to reservoirs of more than 300,000 m3. An earthquake having an intensity of 5–6 on the Richter scale can lead to these barrages becoming fluid and, in consequence, the outpouring of the accumulated water and affecting downstream sites. To view things even better, lightning during thunder storms can determine the emergence of a chain of fires in the woods which can by no means be controlled. The combustible materials, of which the resinous wood forms the majority, make it impossible for any terrestrial intervention whatsoever. Extreme phenomena: • • •
Earthquakes of high intensity: 1944, 1977, and 1990; Heavy rainfall: 2005 – more than 110 l/m2; 100 km of forestry roads and 40 km of public roads were damaged with more than 20 communities being isolated for several months; and Landfalls: Zabala 30 ha forming a reservoir of more than 300,000 m3; the landfall still continues: Naruja Palcau 20 ha.
2. Materials and Methods An area of more than 52,000 ha belongs to the local communities, established in associations based on an archaic organization known as “obsti”. The property form is a private and not a public one but, as a peculiarity, the form of manifestation of the property right is a common one. This form of manifestation of the property has remained unchanged for several thousands of years. There are similar forms all over the AlpineCarpathian mountain chain.
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The resistance to change made it possible for this archaic form of organization to endure. One has to know that this organization based on association does not overlap the state administrative forms of organization. The only period when the administration of the property was not possible was 1948–2001, although, a legal act of nationalization of the forestry properties was never published. During 2000–2003 some of the communities were given assistance by means of a programme initiated by the University of Auburn, Alabama, United States of America. The programme was run with the help of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and World Learning, and was intended to create a responsible attitude towards the process of restoring the forestry properties and towards the assessment of the impact it had on the sustainable management of the forests. The fact that at present there is a strong Association of Landowners called “Asociatia Obstilor Vrancene”, which stands for 14 rural communities having more than 15,000 inhabitants, is genuine proof of the high interest manifested by the beneficiaries of the programme.
3. Results and Discussions Assuming management of the forests came naturally with the principle of protecting nature for the benefit of the communities. A responsible act of respecting the principles of continuity for the vegetation of the forests, which correlated with the idea of satisfying the needs of a community development, in close connection with the idea of preserving the biodiversity, led to the development of certain connections with main actors in this field of activity. These included World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Romania, Regional Research Consortium for Environment Monitoring and Protection/Faculty of Biology – “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University from Iasi, and the Faculties of Forestry from Suceava and Brasov, all from Romania. The actions have achieved a good result by means of thematic exhibitions, by the assessment of the inventory of the natural capital, by assuming the management of the natural reservations included in “Nature 2000” network, and, finally, by obtaining the certification of the forests in accordance with the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) model. One might think about an important rupture between private property and environmental protection, considering the realities of the post-revolutionary Romania. No anomalies were registered where the training process for the landowners was developed systematically and responsibly. Whatever problems occurred was because some special areas of protection on the private properties were created without consulting the landowners and without paying them any compensation. The system of consulting and monitoring the phenomena in the relationship, private landowner-environmental protection on a national level is created only by means of the control function, without the feed-back function. The educational component was accomplished mainly with the help of the NGOs which developed short and accurate programmes. There are no programmes in schools to make children aware of the importance of preserving biodiversity, or of the relations between humankind and nature, or about the healthy cohabitation between the two. Even if Vrancea is considered a seismic area, the level of training of its inhabitants is still very low. Any potential disaster here can result in huge damage and there is no educational system in the schools to train people how to reduce the effects of possible calamities.
V. Popa and O. Toma / A Model of Sustainable Management for Forests
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Photo 4. Example of rebuilt road.
Responsible decentralisation began in 2003 when the local communities, known as “obsti”, decided they could take the management of the forestry properties in their own hands by means of forestry districts. Their five years’ existence proved to be both challenging and profitable; starting with rebuilding the whole local infrastructure, then moving on with establishing formal institutional systems and centres of culture, and ultimately assuming the responsibility for making every route accessible, in case of urgency, in the forest area. They assumed total responsibility and after two years of calamities the road system is 60% rebuilt with a particular focus on the gateways (Photo 4). The financial efforts are significant but, nonetheless, are disregarded by the authorities. The process of sustainable management moves on. Every new year comes with new goals and targets and each and every effort is directed towards carrying them out. For the next four years the educational component will play the leading part as it is considered a priority. Special programmes are to be expected in this respect, programmes which will be run by the “obşti” in close co-operation with the schools.
4. Conclusions The certification of forests and the application of the “Leader” programme are two forms of self-consciously assuming sustainable development. It is easy then for anyone to observe that we are permanently living with imminent disasters which could bring enormous damage to the rural communities. One cannot separate the continuity of the rural communities from the sustainable management of the resources and of the actions of preventing disasters. The rural community in the mountain area of Vrancea county proves that through the stability of the organisational forms and by responsibility in the sustainable man-
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agement of the properties, they are not likely to repeat the mistakes they made during 1900–1925 when, after signing generous contracts with companies of forestry operation, they caused an ecological lack of balance. The future role of the Local Action Group (LAG) – with the generic name of “The Country of Vrancea” – associated with the first forestry property certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), leads us to the conclusion of using the best actions in taking a hold of the good practices of managing in a sustainable manner the existing resources, actions which have to be correlated with models of efficiency in case of possible major natural and man-made disasters.
References [1] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Consortium Regional de Recherche Moldova – pour la Monitorisation et Protection d’Environnement – pour une meilleure gestion de la biodiversité, Conférence internationale, sous le haut patronage de Monsieur Jacques Chirac, Président de la République française, et de Monsieur Koïchiro Matsuura, Directeur général de l’UNESCO, “Biodiversite: science et gouvernance”, 2005, 1, UNESCO, Paris, France. [2] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions and life, the World Conference on Ecological Restoration “Ecological Restoration – A Global Challenge”, 2005, 1, Zaragoza, Spain. [3] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, Recherche régionale pour la monitorisation et protection de l’environnement, gestion biodiversité, journees scientifiques “Recherche et développement durable: approches, méthodologies, stratégies d’action et de formation”, Centre de Recherches et de Transferts Technologies de l’Université Abdelhamid IBN BADIS-Chemin des CretesMostaganem, 2006, 1, Mostaganem, Algeria. [4] Toma Ovidiu, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania, The University Regional Research Consortium (Moldavia) for Environment Monitoring and Protection – as a premise for the optimisation of living conditions because of the prevention of natural and human ecological catastrophes, NATO Security through Science Book, IOS Press, 2007, 1, Amsterdam, Holland.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-29
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GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings Anton ZAICENCO and Vasile ALKAZ Institute of Geology and Seismology, 2028, str. Academiei 3, Kishinev, Moldova E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been found to be very useful in seismic hazard and risk assessment studies. GIS can be used to integrate vast amounts of data geographically, take the spatial distribution of phenomena into consideration and communicate the results graphically, performing analysis of complex mathematical models. The central part of Chisinau (6.3 km2 site), capital of the Republic of Moldova, has been the case study in a project aimed at the assessment of vulnerability of buildings to seismic impact. The city is exposed to Vrancea earthquakes experiencing PGA ≅ 300 cm/s2 for recurrence interval T = 475 yr [6]. Collection, classification and digitization into ArcView GIS format of the main characteristics of the subsoil, such as mean shear wave velocity, natural period of vibration and amplification factor, compilation of database for the existing structures, as well as construction of Digital Terrain Model (DTM), were performed. The final product is the GIS database and software module for purposes of evaluation of seismic damage to buildings. The incorporation of the amplification capacity of the soil through the direct utilization of the transfer function constructed on the base of geotechnical data, allows fast assessment of scenario seismic events and mapping of parameters of the ground motion (PGA, EPA, etc.). The existence of moderate-magnitude and blast records for the studied site, as well as databases of building damage, allow validation of the accepted techniques and methodologies for ground motion and damage simulations. Keywords. Seismic damage, GIS, Vrancea earthquakes
Introduction Vulnerability of the building stock to seismic impact is determined mainly by two factors: (i) demand – in terms of structural loads expected on the given site and (ii) capacity of the structure to withstand this level of shaking with the accepted damage. Structural seismic loads are represented by the site-response spectra and their parameters, which are influenced by such factors as: seismic source mechanism, geological structure of the region, local soft soil conditions, topography, etc. The presence of the geotechnical databases, including measured shear wave velocities for the subsoil of Chisinau, allows detailed investigation of the influence of soft soils on spectral and amplitude level of free-field ground motion. The corresponding structural damage could be obtained either from correlations with the ground motion parameters, or from damage functions [3]. GIS proved to be the adequate tool for storing, processing and mapping of the spatial information [2], such playing the main core in seismic zoning studies. The extreme usefulness of GIS utilization is emphasized, which provides a powerful tool for performing spatial analysis of the data on building damage, soil parameters, seismic records, etc., which are geographical data by their nature. In GIS, mapping and
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Figure 1. Chisinau city centre: (a) map of values of spectral amplification function at frequency 2 Hz, (b) location of 28 digitised borehole logs with geotechnical measurements.
analysis are intimately linked, combining visual display with numerical summaries [10]. 1. Geotechnical Data The necessities of accounting for peculiarities of soil conditions are recognized by numerous guidelines for seismic microzoning [11] and usually include such parameters as natural period of soil vibration, To, and amplification ratios, A, of the surface response with respect to that of the free-field motion of the outcrop. In the frame of the pilot project, 28 borehole logs with detailed geotechnical information including measured in-situ shear wave velocities vs, were digitized and introduced into GIS for the central part of Chisinau [9]. For each of the borehole log the amplification function for horizontal ground motion was constructed on the base of 1-D wave propagation model (SHAKE [5]), thus providing values of spectral amplification. Created GIS-compatible software for processing geotechnical data, allows interpolation of selected parameters for each grid point within the studied zone. In this way, maps of spectral amplification for different frequencies could be constructed (Fig. 1). In addition, maps of natural periods of soil vibration, influenced strongly by the depth to the bedrock (vs ≥ 750 m/s), were obtained using the compiled geotechnical database. The map of the bedrock surface was developed with the TIN model, which partitions a surface into a set of contiguous, non-overlapping triangles. 2. Database of Structural Damage European Macroseismic Scale EMS-92 [4] was taken as a tool for building damage classification of the compiled databases for the existing building stock in the city of Chisinau. The total amount of records was 1,870, while vulnerability class B (masonry) buildings, constituting ≈45% of the total number of structures, were chosen as the sample space that provided the most reliable information both from a spatial distribution point of view as well as structural uniformity.
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Figure 2. Statistics of building stock in the city (according to EMS-92 scale) with the recorded damage after August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake (magnitude Mw = 7.2).
Afterwards, the buildings with 5–6 stories were selected for the statistical analysis, these having approximately the same natural period of vibration To (To ≈ 2.5 Hz, [12] Part 1–2, Annex C) and being designed according to similar building code (base shear force coefficient: 13.5–15% for To < 0.4 s). For this type of buildings the observed damage degree after 1986 earthquake was 0–3. 3. Simulation of Ground Motion Parameters The assessment of structural damage from earthquake impact is performed on the basis of the seismic hazard assessment of the Vrancea seismic zone as well as vulnerability of the existing facilities designed according to certain building code. The expected response spectrum for the medium soil conditions is derived on the basis of the attenuation relationship of Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) from the Vrancea source for the sector containing Moldova [6], using Joyner–Boore model: ln PGA = c1 + c2 Mw + c3 ln R + c4 h + ε
(1)
where: PGA = the peak ground acceleration at the site, Mw = the moment magnitude, R = the hypo-central distance to the site, h = the focal depth, c1, c2, c3, c4 – data dependent coefficients and ε = random variable with zero mean, and standard deviation σε = σlnEPA. Normalized response spectrum shape (5% damping) compatible with Eurocode-8 format [6] is obtained on the basis of the statistical analysis of 20 components of seismic records from Moldova and neighbouring Romanian territory. The influence of local soft soil conditions is considered by direct utilization of the soil transfer function. The corresponding database of these functions is compiled for the test zone. The procedure of calculating the free-field acceleration damped response spectra, taking into account the influence of soft soil, is the following: 1.
The normalized response spectrum for the test site is multiplied by the corresponding value of the PGA from the attenuation curve, yielding a spectrum for medium soil conditions at a given hypocentral distance and defined earthquake magnitude. The calculated spectrum is scaled afterwards to obtain the spectrum on the bedrock;
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2.
The damped response spectrum is divided by the peak factor, rsp, at a set of target frequencies ω. Thus, the σ-spectrum is obtained [7]: rs,p =
2 ⋅ ln(2n)
(2)
where: n = [-ln (p)]-1 Ωy⋅s/(2π) – average number of cycles of response motion; The power spectral density function, PSD, is derived from σ-spectrum. By this the PSD function, G(ω), compatible with damped response spectrum is received, for a given duration of the motion and assigned probability of exceedance [7]:
3.
σ a2 = G (ω n ) ⋅ ω n (
π − 1) + 4ξ
ωn
∫ G(ω )dω
(3)
0
where: ξ – structural damping; The PSD function is convolved with the transfer function of the soft soil in frequency domain, which yields PSD function of the free-field motion:
4.
Gtop(ω) = G(ω)⋅|H soil (ω)|2
(4)
σ-spectrum is derived back from PSD function and converted into a damped response spectrum:
5.
SA(ω) = σtop(ω) ⋅ rs,p(ω)
(5)
Yet, the applied procedure does not take into consideration the non-linearity of the soil behaviour. The assumption of linearity could be accepted with certain confidence for the medium hypocentral distance of Chisinau in respect to Vrancea seismic source, when no non-linear effects in soil behaviour were observed during strong earthquakes. 1000
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Figure 3. Damped elastic response spectra: simulation results and two components of real records. (a) soft soil profile with natural period T = 1.5 s; (b) soft soil profile with natural period T = 0.5 s.
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Spectral acceleration, (g's)
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Figure 4. Evaluating building seismic damage degree (capacity spectrum method).
The degree of structural damage was studied in the context of the level of ground shaking expressed in terms of effective peak accelerations, EPA, and values of response spectra, SA2Hz, for the natural period of building’s vibration 2.5 Hz (Fig. 4). Increased building response was observed in case of simulated response spectrum (intersection at point “2” in comparison with building code spectrum (point “1”) due to consideration of local soft soil conditions influence (Fig. 3a).
4. Mapping of Ground Shaking Parameters The accuracy of the applied GIS models depends strongly on the adopted interpolation methods, which should be properly chosen in connection with mapped physical parameters. Kriging interpolation method was employed, being in wide use in soil science and geology. It is an advanced interpolation procedure that generates an estimated surface from a scattered set of points with z values under hypothesis of spatial homogeneity. The digital elevation model (DEM), as well as other interpolated contours and surfaces, are created on the basis of the Kriging method. Figure 5 provides a 3-D scene generated with ArcView GIS for Chisinau city centre, which includes terrain surface, major streets, hydrographical zones and existing structures. Due to available geotechnical databases, and taking into account results of hazard assessments for the Vrancea zone, the simulation of free-field damped response spectra for scenario earthquakes was performed, resulting in mapping of shaking parameters and building damage degree, di, calculations, thus providing a vulnerability map for the constructed zone.
5. Recorded Damage and Results of Simulated Ground Motion Within the framework of the seismic risk study, the specific task of establishing the correlation between ground motion parameters and degrees of damage to the existing structures, was also investigated. This issue is tackled in the context of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-92, p. 25) [4] which implies that “while it is undeniable that the effects observed from which intensity values are deduced are a product of real
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Figure 5. Chisinau centre: 3-D scene using ArcView (view from North). Ground motion simulation.
Figure 6. Map of simulated values of response spectra at T = 0.4 s for the central part of Chisinau.
ground motion parameters, the relationship between them is complex and not amenable to simple correlations”. The correlation was investigated for such parameters of the simulated ground motion as EPA, values of response spectra SA at target frequency 2.5 Hz (Fig. 6) and damage degree of the selected structures. The better correlation with structural damage is observed for the values of spectral accelerations SA(0.4s), showing a coefficient of correlation ρ = 0.47, in comparison with the effective peak accelerations (EPA) of ρ = 0.18. Yet, the narrow range of the accelerations within the studied zone, depending on differences of soft soil thickness,
A. Zaicenco and V. Alkaz / GIS Application for the Assessment of Seismic Damage to Buildings 3.5
35
Damage = 1.2263Ln[SA(0.4s)] - 5.5746
Damage degree .
3
Correl = 0.47
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
SA(0.4 s), cm/s/s
Figure 7. Bedrock PGA = 0.1 g at test site. Simulation results: damage degree (126 buildings) vs. values of response spectra SA (cm/s2) at T = 0.4 s.
does not allow the more detailed investigation into correlation of structural damage and parameters of ground motion. Also, the non-homogeneity of masonry structures within the test site in terms of quality of materials and methods of construction makes a contribution to the larger scatter of the degree of seismic damage.
6. Conclusion The usefulness of GIS for seismic damage assessment studies is emphasized due to its capacity to store, process and visualize spatial information. The following databases have already been compiled for the test site: geotechnical, building stock, records of blasts, microseisms and strong motion. GIS, which is capable of providing a powerful tool for the analysis of geographically distributed data, was used as a core instrument in the research work. The technique for structural damage assessment has been worked out and tested. Results of the simulated ground motion parameters are compared with the observed damage degrees of buildings, which are better described by values of spectral accelerations SA at target frequencies than effective accelerations EPA.
Acknowledgments All the data were kindly provided by Institute of Geology and Seismology, Moldavian Academy of Sciences, which monitors seismic activity of the Vrancea zone in the territory of the Republic of Moldova and concentrates information related to seismic hazard and risk. The material presented in this paper is the result of the joint research based on collaboration between several institutions, performed in the context of the seismic microzoning of Chisinau.
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References [1] Alkaz, V. and Zaicenco, A., (1999). Spatial Correlation Between Level of Water Table and Damage of Buildings After 1986 Vrancea Earthquake in Kishinev using GIS, DACH-Tagung Conference, Berlin, Nov 24-25. pp. 19-25. [2] Andy Mitchell, (1999). The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis. Volume 1: Geographic Patterns & Relationships. ESRI Press, Redlands, California [3] Charles A. Kircher, Aladdin A. Nassar, Onder Kustu and William T. Holmes, (1997). Development of Building Damage Functions for Earthquake Loss Estimation, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 13, November 4, p. 663. [4] Grunthal, G., et al. (1993). European Macroseismic Scale 1992. [5] Idriss, I.M. and Sun, J.I., (1992). User’s Manual for SHAKE91, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis. [6] Lungu, D., Cornea, T., Aldea, A. and Zaicenco A., (1997). Basic representation of seismic action. In: Design of structures in seismic zones: Eurocode 8 – Worked examples. TEMPUS PHARE CM Project 01198: Implementing of structural Eurocodes in Romanian civil engineering standards. Edited by D. Lungu, F. Mazzolani and S. Savidis. Bridgeman Ltd., Timisoara, p. 1-60. [7] Vanmarcke, E.H., (1974). Structural Response to Earthquakes, MIT, Cambridge, Mass., USA. [8] Vucetic, M., Doroudian, M. and Martin, G.R., (1998). Development of Geotechnical Data Base of Southern California for Seismic Microzonation, 3rd Annual Caltrans Seismic Research Workshop, Sacramento. [9] Zaicenco, A. and Alkaz, V., (2000). Development of 3-D Geotechnical GIS-oriented Database for Seismic Microzonation Studies. Proceedings of the 3rd Japan–Turkey Workshop on EQ engineering, Istanbul, Feb. 21-25, pp. 159-165. [10] ArcView Spatial Analyst and ArcView 3D Analyst, (1996-97). Manuals for utilization of ArcView GIS software, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). [11] Guidelines for Seismic Microzonation Studies, (1995). AFPS. [12] EUROCODE 8. Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-37
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Actuarial Risk Management Through Geological Risk-Geoinformation Systems (RiskGIS) T. RUDOLPH De Perponcherstraat 79, 2518 SP Den Haag, The Netherlands [email protected]
Abstract. Actuarial geo-information systems are mainly used for the spatial analysis of surface data sets. But geological, hydrogeological as well as hydrological aspects should be considered in the calculation of premiums in the insurance industry. A first deployment method for these geo-scientific subsurface information is shown in this paper. Keywords. Insurance, Geo-information systems, GIS, Geology, Hydrogeology, Hydrology
Introduction The application of geo-information systems for geological, hydrological and hydrogeological aspects in risk management is a further development of the geographical underwriting of the insurance industry. The knowledge of the geology, hydrology and hydrogeology is fundamental for the understanding and spatial analysis of an insured object before and during loss-events, for example with contamination of the aquifer. Furthermore possible loss scenarios could be prevented or minimized if the subsurface geology and hydrogeology is already known and integrated in the initial insurance appraisal. The modelling and classification of the geo-scientific knowledge also enables the definition of Action Zones, which allow a better appraisal and assessment of the insurable objects. This leads to an optimized and transparent premium calculation for both the insurer and the policyholder. The visualization of the geo-scientific subsurface information in geo-information systems is simple and economically feasible, it is quick to analyze, it can be combined with additional information and gives important insights into the subsurface structures.
1. Set-Up of a Risk-Geoinformation System A Risk-Geoinformation system (RiskGIS) contains a digital geo-information system which is populated with geographical, geological, hydrological and hydrogeological datasets. With the combination of these datasets specific actuarial conclusions can be derived. In this paper the tool ArcGIS 9.1, ESRI, was used with the extensions of the Spatial Analyst and 3D Analyst.
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1.1. Data Fundamentals For a RiskGIS exercise is it important to first complete preliminary work such as a review of the existing datasets. Datasets about topography, geography as well as geology, hydrology and hydrogeology have to be obtained and digitized to get imported to the RiskGIS. A quality control on these datasets should be applied and, if needed, the dataset versions should be updated. But it is also considered that historical and old datasets contain important useful information. The distribution of these datasets is carried out by local, state and governmental authorities and other technical authorities as well as by private facilities [2,14]. Private important datasets are, for example, subsurface reports. Important datasets which should be used are [4,11]: • • • • • • • • •
Basic information like topographical maps, satellite and aerial pictures, coordinate systems and altitude information; Recent and historical wells for subsurface investigations, groundwater wells and other exploration wells; Hydrological information about rivers and lakes with flow direction, flow rates, protected areas along water works and water catchment areas; Hydrogeological information about groundwater, groundwater contours, groundwater flow directions, flow rates; Geological-hydrogeological information like rock- and sediment-formations, lithologies, porosities, permeabilities and soil retention; Topographic information about important traffic and transportation routes (roads, railroads and waterways); Residential areas with important buildings, land use and important object information like storage tanks, bonding depth of buildings in the groundwater; Vulnerability maps with contaminated areas; and Maps with possible subsurface background contamination.
For the usage of wells it is important to consider that the well itself does not provide only information about the subsurface geology and hydrogeology but the position of the well also shows possible contamination of the subsurface structure. As an example reference can be made to the explosion of the oil depot in Bruncefield, Great Britain on December 11, 2005 where infiltrating hydrocarbons along non-abandoned wells contaminated the aquifers [9]. For the initial interpretation of objects, different resolutions could be applied; the coarser the resolution of a model the coarser is the conclusion. Thus, for a small-scale area, where distances of less than a few metres can decide between a loss-event and non loss-event, preferably fine scales should be used [13]. Therefore, small-scale as well as large scale topographical maps should be used in the RiskGIS. With fewer work-steps, information about altitude and slope dipping is deducible from these maps. Simultaneously these topographical maps give insights in the surrounding area like nature reserves or water protected areas, which are possibly not visible during the initial site inspection of the object but are relevant during a loss event. Additional to this basic information more detailed information, like pipe and cable plans, should be used. Along these pipes and cables routes exist high ground permeabilities and pathways which enable contamination of the groundwater. These pipes and cables have also an influence on operations to minimize damage.
T. Rudolph / Actuarial Risk Management Through Geological Risk-Geoinformation Systems
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Figure 1. Map of the model.
Only with hydrological and hydrogeological datasets is it possible to appraise uncertainties in the subsurface, because this information also minimizes the loss scenarios and contamination. The geological subsurface information could be used in the classical way as for a geological map. Sometimes geological maps in higher resolution are also available and additional geological special maps like Hydrological Maps or Engineering Maps give important insights. But independent from the scale, geological maps only give information about the geology at the surface. However, datasets about the subsurface are important to understand the extension and connectivity of geological factors. This information must be gathered with geological cross-sections, wells or with special maps. Additional information of subsurface models could be implemented in the RiskGIS by special interfaces with subsurface models [15]. Overall the subsurface data must be principally combined, summarized and simplified depending on the desired conclusion. An additional perspective and/or three-dimensional visualizations of the datasets simplify the overview and therefore the interpretation. 1.2. Model of the RiskGIS To show the functionality of a RiskGIS for an actuarial risk management the model of Coldewey and Schütz [5] was used, improved and enhanced. The presented model, with its visualizations and workflows, are idealistic and the points of interest used are imaginary. In a first step topographic information, including an altitude model, is displayed on a map (Fig. 1). For a better visualization of the possibilities of a RiskGIS two example scenarios (or, points of interest) are integrated in the model, which are, on the one hand, a single object in quadrant A2 and, on the other hand, cumulated objects in quadrant C4. The visualization was chosen this way for different reasons, namely the single object could be a moving object like a vehicle on the street or a fixed object like a gas station or a building with an oil tank in the cellar. An example could be a truck with dangerous goods and materials which has an accident [16]. For additional loss scenarios with dangerous goods reference is made to the Transport-Accident-Information and SupportSystem (Transport-Unfall-Informations- und Hilfeleistungs-System TUIS) of the Asso-
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Figure 2. Map of the model with geological, hydrological and hydrogeological information for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
ciation of the Chemical Industry and the Ministry of the Interior [17]. The cumulative objects are an accumulation of buildings on an industrial site close to two rivers. As an example the loss scenario of Sandoz in 1986 is mentioned where fire water, which was polluted with mercury and phosphoric pesticides, flowed into the Rhine, and caused severe pollution of the river water. To show the overall sensitivity of the system more realistic and significant supplemental environmental parameters are added. Therefore, in the vicinity of the single object in the quadrant A2 a water works with active wells is located. Along the course of the river are located residential areas and further downstream agricultural areas and nature-protected areas. In a second step for the RiskGIS the geological and hydrogeological datasets have to be incorporated (Fig. 2). Furthermore, by the interpolation of point data like groundwater measurements groundwater, contours must be generated. The groundwater flow direction, which is perpendicular to the contours, could also be developed, plotted as arrows on the contours and used to describe the flow of the pollutants. For the overview in the model area these arrows are not displayed but the general groundwater flow is to the southwest. On the basis of the surface understanding, subsurface information could be extracted from the geological map or, like in this case, from the wells to create geological maps for deeper structures (Fig. 2) as well as a hydrogeological cross-section (Fig. 3). Through a comparison of the surface geology with the subsurface geology a change is visible. The reason for this is that the model area represents a river valley where, especially at the surface, recent river deposits are located and which are completely different from the deeper subsurface geology. The next interpretation step is the generation of the map with distances between the aquifer and surface (Fig. 4). The shorter the distances between the aquifer and the surface, the quicker the possible contamination of the groundwater. The map shows that in this model the distances are in the most cases less than three metres. In the quadrant B2 an increase of the distance is visible due to active producing groundwater wells with a drawdown of the groundwater table. To show the impact of the distance of the aquifer and the surface, additional parameters have to be incorporated in the model. By using the permeability it is possible to understand the rate of contamination of the underground regime whose permeability
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Figure 3. Hydrogeological Cross-Section of the model.
Figure 4. Map of the distances between the aquifer and the surface (Classification after [3]).
is a measure of the ability of rocks and sediments to transmit (ground)-water [8]. The lower the permeability value the lower the propagation velocity of substances in the underground. Typical permeabilities are shown in Table 1. Based on DIN 18130-1 a classification of permeability values is possible (Table 2) [6]. These permeabilities will be allocated to the geological units of the geological map and in a second step using the DIN 18130-1 classification are coloured in five classes and plotted as an additional map (Fig. 5). The permeability values in the active riverbed are very low and in the old riverbed very high because of the depositional history of the rivers. The comparison of both maps shows clearly the more homogenous and permeable sediments at a depth more than two metres. Additional analysis of the deeper geological situation, using the (hydro-) geological cross-section, shows possible high permeable rocks and sediments with permeabilities of kf = 10–4 m/s to kf = 10–5 m/s (Fig. 3). On this basis of classification of permeabilities, Zones of Exposure could be identified. In the already mentioned example of the Sandoz loss scenario, the distance to the Rhine was only a couple of
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Table 1. Permeability (Durchlässigkeitsbeiwerte) kf [8]
Table 2. Classification of Permeabilities (Durchlässigkeitsbeiwert kf) in five classes (DIN 18130-1) and colour code
Figure 5. Permeabilities for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
hundred metres. To validate the Zones of Exposure the established classification of the protected zones for water works, which show the sedimentary aquifers, the following, are the recommended values [7]: • • •
Protected zone I: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be two to one kilometres; Protected zone II: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be 50 days (retention period) and not less than 100 metres; and Protected zone III: The upstream flow distance for groundwater wells should be more than 20 metres.
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Figure 6. Model with the Zones of Exposure.
The classification of the buffers along the rivers should also incorporate local parameters like width, depth of rivers and flow velocity, as well as usage of the water for water supply. Therefore the size of the buffer zones vary. In the model buffers with a width of 50 m, 150 m and 500 m are used which result in three Zones of Exposure (Fig. 6): • • •
Zone of Exposure I with a width of 100 m; Zone of Exposure II with a width of 500 m; and Zone of Exposure III with a width of 1,000 m.
In the presented model the protected zones for water works are similar to the Zones of Exposure. The final step of the workflow to define Action Zones is the spatial analysis of the permeability classes with the distances of the aquifer from the surface and with the Zones of Exposure. For this all the different classes are combined and multiplied. The possible 75 combinations are sorted and ordered in Action Zones (Table 3). An Action Zone is defined in this model as a zone where an action/workflow has to take place because of the geological, hydrological and hydrological situation. On this basis five Action Zones plus one are established: • • • • • •
Action Zone A (Combination 1 to combination 43); Action Zone B (Combination 44 to combination 63); Action Zone C (Combination 64 to combination 70); Action Zone D (Combination 71 to combination 74); Action Zone E (Combination 75); and Action Zone F.
The generation of these Action Zones is effected using the Rastercalculator in the RiskGIS by multiplying the values of the different maps. Therefore a very high permeability soil with a small distance between groundwater and surface in the Zone of Exposure I results in Action Zone A. The Action Zone F is established for areas where no area-wide information coverage exists for permeability values, aquifer surface distances or Zones of Exposure. On basis of the two permeability maps, the spatial distribution of the Action Zones are visualized for the different depths (Fig. 7).
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Table 3. Part of the decision tree as a spatial analysis of the permeability classes, distance between the aquifer and surface and the Zones of Exposure
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Figure 7. Action Zones for i) a depth of 0 m to 2 m, and ii) a depth of 2 m to 5 m.
Table 4. Description of the premium levels for insurances on basis of the Action Zones
For a better visualization, Action Zone B for the nature reserve is assigned to the quadrants A5 to C5. During the visualization of the Action Zones, information about a depth trend has also to be acquired so as to understand the change of an Action Zone with depth. In the model the shaded zone along the river displays an increase of the action zone from A to B caused by the increase of permeability values with depth (Fig. 5). Table 4 with the six Action Zones is a further development after MELCHERS, C.,
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Figure 8. Screenshot of ArcSCENE with a perspective view on the model.
GÖBEL, P. & SCHÄFER [10]. The table shows in the second column the action that is needed to prevent contamination being dispersed. Together with the first column it clearly indicates also the timing of required actions. The last column highlights the implications for insurances and the impact on the calculation of the premiums.
2. Interpretation of the Data For a summarized interpretation of the data it is useful to display the model in a perspective, or three-dimensional, view because the spatial relationship of the datasets is more apparent. In this case the visualization tool ArcSCENE is recommended (Fig. 8). All the layers of the RiskGIS are displayed as separate layer stacks: • • • •
First layer: Second layer: Third layer: Fourth layer:
Hydrology and the groundwater contours; Topography; Action Zones for a depth between 0 m and 2 m; and Action Zones for a depth between 2 m and 5 m.
The spatial junctions, especially of the hydrological and hydrogeological datasets with the geological datasets of the deeper subsurface, result in important information which, if separately analyzed, is not obvious. An example is the depth trend and the change of the Action Zone in the riverbed with an increase of permeability. Another example is the analysis of the industrial areas in the vicinity of the two rivers. Often industrial areas are built in the river plains because only there are enough and wide areas available. But the possible interaction of the industrial area with the river and the influence to the subsurface are often not considered. Therefore, pollutants infiltrate the subsurface structure easily during loss-events because of the high permeability. The need for action increases if the pollutants infiltrate deeper structures because the permeability values there are even higher. Furthermore, an analysis of the slopes of the elevation model shows that the pollutants during a loss-event run off the surface into the river, which will then be transported towards the nature reserve. The example of the loss scenario in the Northwest of the model is an object, which is lying on the edge of an Action Zone. Only with a spatial analysis of the position of the object it is
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possible to detect in the vicinity an active water works and a river (Fig. 2). The increased exposure will be visible only by the interpretation of the two geological maps. These maps show a minimum five metre thickness of coarse sands which are highly permeable. During loss-events contamination infiltrates the subsurface structure and is transported with the aquifer because the distance between aquifer and surface is also only between 1.5 m and 3 m (Fig. 5). Already the combination of these parameters would result in an Action Zone B. Overall the increase in Action Zones shows clearly the increased need to prevent the dispersion of contamination and the bigger impact on the calculation of insurance premiums. The presented RiskGIS, and the presented model with examples of possible loss scenarios, show how spatial workflows can generate new and important information which have an impact on the assessment of objects. This information reduces the consequences and expenditure on loss scenarios and therefore has an impact on the premium calculation. The installation of safety systems and control mechanisms, like adequate collecting systems for tanks, reduces even more the risk and therefore the premium. On the other hand, an extreme case leads to a non-insurable object.
3. Conclusions Recent investigations by the author have shown that no Risk-Geoinformation systems are available which work with geological, hydrological and hydrogeological datasets and are used by insurance companies to assess insurable objects and loss scenarios [1]. The presented RiskGIS is a further development of a normal Geoinformation system and Geoscience Based Fire Decision Systems (Geobasierte FeuerwehrEntscheidungshilfe-Systeme). The presented RiskGIS is even more enhanced by keeping the compatibility with other GIS tools. Although the workflow of the RiskGIS is not described in detail it is possible to implement the general set-up in other systems. Important for the setting-up of a RiskGIS is the collection of the necessary geological, hydrological and hydrogeological information. As presented, different ways and opportunities could be used. Only with the overall knowledge of the geology, hydrology and hydrogeology it is possible to understand the subsurface structures and how the subsurface is linked to the surface. All these datasets are generally available area-wide in urban areas. Often additional information is where a very detailed scale is accessible. The datasets have to be combined with the RiskGIS and must be interpreted for the actuarial problem. The disadvantage of the non-availability of these datasets, especially in rural areas, should be compensated through a spatial analysis of the existing datasets with a combination of the information from an initial site inspection. But already the analysis of the existing datasets is an essential work-step before the site inspection to address possible problems. The combination of the knowledge of the site inspection with the RiskGIS shows the exposure and the necessity for an action during a loss-event. After the initial investment to build a RiskGIS, this system is cheap and could easily be improved as well as enhanced by incorporating new and additional datasets. In summary, the setting-up of a RiskGIS and an initial assessment are much cheaper than the expenditure for a loss-scenario. Even if a loss-scenario occurs is it possible with an updated RiskGIS to assess quickly the subsurface structures and define feasible decontamination methods and procedures. Therefore, the opportunity for
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risk management with a RiskGIS tool provides insurers and policyholders with an optimized, economical tool.
References [1] BUSINESS GEOMATICS (2007): Ökologischer Schaden – SPACE analysiert das ortsabhängige Risiko für Umweltschäden. – [online in the Internet: http://www.business-geomatics.com/archiv/507/ 42.html, Status October 9, 2007]. [2] COLDEWEY, W.G. (1993): Archivmaterial. – In: Weber, H.H. & Neumaier, H. [Hrsg.]: “Altlasten. Erkennen, Bewerten, Sanieren”, 2. Aufl., S. 44–73, Berlin (Springer). [3] COLDEWEY, W.G. & GÖBEL, P. (2001): Hydrogeologisches Geländepraktikum [“Hydrogeologische Kartierung”]. – 38 S., 6 Abb., 6 Tab.; [unveröffentlicht]. [4] COLDEWEY, W.G. & KRAHN, L. (1991): Leitfaden zur Grundwasseruntersuchung im Festgestein bei Altablagerungen und Altstandorten. – 124 S., 34 Abb., Anh.; Düsseldorf. [5] COLDEWEY, W.G. & SCHÜTZ, H.G. (1990): Untersuchungen der hydrogeologischen und hydrochemischen Verhältnisse kontaminierter Standorte.- Müll und Abfall, 1, 12 S., 10 Abb.; Berlin (ESV). [6] DIN 18130-1 (1998): Baugrund; Untersuchung von Bodenproben; Bestimmung des Wasserdurchlässigkeitsbeiwertes – Teil 1: Laborversuche. Berlin (Beuth). [7] DVGW ARBEITSBLATT W101 (2006): Richtlinien für Trinkwasserschutzgebiete; Teil I: Schutzgebiete für Grundwasser. – Bonn (Eschborn). [8] HÖLTING, B. & COLDEWEY, W.G. (2005): Hydrogeologie – Einführung in die Allgemeine und Angewandte Hydrogeologie. – 326 S., 118 Abb., 68 Tab.; München (Elsevier). [9] KASTL U. (2006): Verheerende Explosion in einem Öldepot. – MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2006): Schadenspiegel 2/2006 – Themenheft Risiko Feuer. – 49,2, 2-5., 3 Abb.; München. [10] MELCHERS, C., GÖBEL, P. & SCHÄFER (2003): Entwicklung eines Konzeptes zur Bewertung der Umweltgefährdung während des Feuerwehreinsatzes aus hydrologischer Sicht. – VFDB; 3, 143-148, 5 Abb.; Stuttgart (Kohlhammer). [11] MELCHERS, C., RUDOLPH, T. & COLDEWEY, W.G. (2005): Geologische Aspekte der angewandten Risikobewertung. – Münster. Forsch. Geol. Paläont.; 100, 8 S., 7 Abb.; Münster. [12] MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2002): Topics 2002. – 49 S., 33 Abb.; München. [13] MÜNCHENER RÜCK (2003): Topics geo 2002. – 53 S., 33 Abb.; München. [14] PÄLCHEN, W. (2006): Bei der Geologie gespart?. – Geowissenschaftliche Mitteilungen; 25, 20-21; Bonn. [15] RUDOLPH, T., ELFERS, H., JUCH, D., LINDER, B. & THOMSEN A. (2006): Untergrundmodelle in Nordrhein-Westfalen – Möglichkeiten der Zusammenführung unterschiedlicher Modellansätze. – Schriftenreihe der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geowissenschaften (SDGG) [Hrsg.]: GeoBerlin 2006 158. Jahrestagung der DGG, 50: 61; Hannover. [16] WESTFÄLISCHE NACHRICHTEN (2007): Gefahrgut-Transporter brennt – Großeinsatz der Feuerwehr – A2 bei Essen stundenlang gesperrt. – Newspaper article of April 30, 2007. [17] VCI (2007): Transport-Unfall-Informations- und Hilfeleistungssystem (TUIS). – [Online im Internet: http://www.vci.de/TUIS/default2~cmd~shr~docnr~114675~nd~~rub~ 741~ond~tuis~c~0.htm, Status August 21, 2007].
Theme 2 Water-Based Hazards/Risks
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-51
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Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection Plamen GRAMATIKOV * The Neofit Rilski South-West State University, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
Abstract. Fresh water resources of Bulgaria and water management in the country are estimated and compared with other countries. The government policy, and organizational structure of the network for flood monitoring, forecasting and warning are presented in this paper, as are the types of activities and divisions of work with neighbouring countries in the framework of trans-border cooperation in this area of the Balkans. Keywords. Fresh water resources, organizational structure, flood monitoring and forecasting
Introduction The big security issues of 21st century are energy, water and climate. New security challenges require new approaches. World water resources are very important because all living creatures depend on them. The world ocean covers 74% of the Earth and saline and mineral waters are about 97.5% of all water reserves. The potential resources of fresh water, excluding glacial water, are 4.2 million km3 or 0.3% of all hydrosphere reserves. There is no living creature or plant that can live without water. Water constitutes 14–16% of the seeds’ content and up to 90–95% of the fruits’ content. Almost 2/3 of the human body consists of water and we need about 2 litres of water intake daily. One litre is supplied by drinking liquids and another one is supplied by food. The great importance of water is connected with its amazing properties, which are not typical of other substances. Water is eternal because it is constantly renewed by water circumrotating and it is the only substance that has the three aggregate conditions – liquid, solid and vapour. Besides, it is a universal solvent – depending on temperature, pressure and other factors, it can dissolve almost all chemical elements. Throughout history water has confronted humanity with some of its greatest challenges. Water is a source of life and a natural resource that sustains our environments and supports livelihoods – but it is also a source of risk and vulnerability. In the early 21st Century, prospects for human development are threatened by a deepening global water crisis. In a world of unprecedented wealth, almost 2 million children die each year for want of a glass of clean water and adequate sanitation. And water-borne infectious diseases are holding back poverty reduction and economic growth in some of the world’s poorest countries. *
Correponding Author: Department of Physics, South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, 66 Ivan Mihailov Blvd., 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria; E-mail: [email protected]
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Figure 1. Projected Water Scarcity in 2025.
A clean and safe source of drinking water is regarded by the United Nations as a fundamental human right. Many European countries depend on groundwater for drinking water supplies. As this water becomes increasingly polluted, they are faced with two options: − −
Develop increasingly complex and expensive methods of cleaning the water, or Risk the consequences to human health of drinking polluted water.
Groundwater pollution is, of course, also of concern in environmental terms. Most of the groundwater participates in the hydrological cycle although the residence time may vary from months to centuries. On the other hand natural disasters including floods were always part of the environment and humans were combating them. The ability of human race to successfully mitigate them is a criterion for its development.
1. Integrated Water Resources Development and Management 1.1. Global Water Shortage in the New Century About 80 countries now have water shortages that threaten health and economies while 40% of the world (more than 2 billion people) has no access to clean water or sanitation (Fig. 1). In this context, we cannot expect water conflicts to always be amenably resolved by the European environmental standards. More than a dozen nations receive most of their water from rivers that cross borders of neighbouring up-stream countries which are often viewed as hostile. These include Botswana, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Congo, Gambia, Sudan and Syria, all of whom receive 75% or more of their fresh water from the river flow from such neighbours. In
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Figure 2. Population Lacking Access to Improved Water Sources (percentage of population). Source: World Health Organization and UNICEF, Meeting the MDG Drinking Water and Sanitation Target, and Millennium Project estimate.
the Middle East, a region marked by hostility between nations, obtaining adequate water supplies is a high political priority. For example, water has been a contentious issue in recent negotiations between Israel and Syria. In recent years, Iraq, Syria and Turkey have exchanged verbal threats over their use of shared rivers. Almost 14% of the European Union (EU) population has been affected by water scarcity. Over 80% of the original floodplain area along the Danube and its main tributaries has been lost as a result of dams, pollution, and climate change. The Belgian government recognizes water as a human right, and its development aid will focus on water. Water utilities in Germany pay farmers to switch to organic operations because it costs less than removing farm chemicals from water supplies. Global water problems are attracting increasing attention. A prime cause of the global water concern is the ever-increasing world population. As populations grow, industrial, agricultural and individual water demands escalate. World-wide demand for water is doubling every 21 years, more in some regions. Water supply cannot remotely keep pace with demand, as populations soar and cities explode (Fig. 2). Population growth alone does not account for increased water demand. Since 1900, there has been a six-fold increase in water use for only a two-fold increase in population size. This reflects greater water usage associated with rising standards of living (e.g., diets containing less grain and more meat). It also reflects potentially unsustainable levels of irrigated agriculture. World population has recently reached six billion and United Nation’s projections indicate nine billion by 2050. Meanwhile many countries suffer accelerating desertification. Water quality is deteriorating in many areas of the developing world as population increases and salinity caused by industrial farming and over-extraction rises. About 95% of the world’s cities still dump raw sewage into their waters. 1.2. Water Exploitation Index Over the last 10–15 years the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) decreased in 18 European countries, representing a considerable decrease in total water abstraction (about 9% of total abstractions corresponding to 23,081 million cubic metres decrease of water) [1].
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Figure 3. Water exploitation index. Total water abstraction per year as percentage of long-term freshwater resources in 1990 and 2002. Data source: EEA-ETC/WTR based on data from Eurostat data tables: Renewable water resources (million m3/year), LTAA & annual water abstraction by source and by sector (million m3/year) – Total freshwater abstraction (surface + groundwater).
The warning threshold for the water exploitation index (WEI), which distinguishes a non-stressed from a stressed region, is around 20% (Fig. 3). Severe water stress can occur where the WEI exceeds 40%, indicating unsustainable water use. But nearly 44% of Europe’s population still lives in water-stressed countries (approx. 255 million inhabitants). In Europe there are eight countries that can be considered water-stressed based on the Eurostat data available for the period 1997–2005 (Germany, Cyprus, Spain, Bulgaria, Italy, UK, Malta and the FYROM), representing about 44% or almost half of Europe’s population. Based on the 2005 available data Cyprus (60%) and Bulgaria (> 35%) have the highest WEI. However, it is necessary to take into account the high water abstraction for non-consumptive uses (cooling water) in Germany, England and Wales, Bulgaria and Belgium. Most of the water abstracted in the remaining four wa-
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ter-stressed countries (Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Malta) is for consumptive uses (especially irrigation) and there is therefore higher pressure on water resources in these four countries. The WEI decreased in 18 countries over the last 10–15 years, representing a decrease of about 9% in total water abstraction (in absolute number there is a 23 km 3 of abstracted water reduction as compared to the 268 km3 total abstraction in 1990). Most of the decrease occurred in the new EU Member States as a result of the decline in abstraction in most economic sectors. This trend was the result of institutional and economic changes. However, seven countries (The Netherlands, the UK, Greece, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey) increased their WEI during the period 1990 to 2005 because of the increase in total water abstraction. The WEI has also increased in Cyprus from 1998 to 2005 (lack of data do not allow comparison to the pre-1997 period). 1.3. Bulgarian Water Strategy and Policy Environmental policy in Bulgaria has evolved with overall political and economic changes in the last 17 years. The Strategy and the Environmental Action Plan for the period up to 2000 introduced new approaches to environmental management and set Bulgarian environment policy on track with modern environmental policy-making – addressing environmental issues in their inter-sectoral complexity, thus providing the initial framework for integrating environmental, economic and social issues as a basis for the country’s sustainable development. Particularly intensive in terms of legislative changes and new policy implementation was the period after 1997 when Bulgaria signed an association agreement with the European Union (EU) thus formally undertaking an obligation to meet European environmental standards. This process continues after the acceptance of Bulgaria as a member of the European Union (EU) at the beginning of 2007. In 1997 the Government adopted a Strategy for Integrated Water Management in the Republic of Bulgaria [2]. This document identifies the main objectives towards achieving sustainable water management: − −
meeting different water-use needs (drinking water supply, recreation, industrial and agricultural use) while conserving water resources; protecting the environment and the aquatic ecosystems; limiting potential impacts of floods and drought.
The Strategy also takes into account new challenges arising from market economy development. It introduces the approach of a government regulated water-use balance as a way of ensuring the social function of water supply and the protection of the environment. The Strategy identifies economic aspects of water use and water management structures and mechanisms to be established. Recognising the new stage of environmental policy development the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW) initiated the elaboration of a National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006. The strategy prepared with the valuable contribution of Bulgarian governmental institutions, scientific organisations, nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) and societies and with international support was approved by the Government on 31 May 2001 [3]. This strategic document has a primary focus on end results, i.e. on activities and measures for practical implementation
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of existing legislation with the aim to improve the quality of life and to protect the environment. The strategic objectives for the country for this period go beyond mere environmental concerns and integrate sustainable development considerations in two aspects: 1.
2.
Preserving and expanding the large clean territories in the country and protecting Bulgaria’s rich nature in conditions of economic growth and improved social welfare; Overcoming existing local environmental problems, thus improving quality of life.
In line with overall environment and economic policy development, water management priorities have also been set. A few years ago a working group chaired by the MoEW, and including representatives of other organisations, was set up to draft a National Strategy for Water Management and Development [4]. The new strategy will also reflect international commitments, particularly those related to EU accession and the trans-boundary water management implications it has. The strategy will identify measures and mechanisms for adequate water supply to all citizens and other users in the country while guaranteeing social acceptability of water services and integrating other sector priorities set out in strategic documents such as national economic and regional development plans, district and municipal social-economic development strategies, municipal programmes, etc. 1.4. Legislation Based on the key issues and priority actions of the National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006, the Environmental Protection Act (EPA) of 2002 [5] provides a comprehensive legal framework for environmental policy. It ensures a common approach in all environmental sectors and at the same time provides a basis for integration of environment into other policy sectors. The EPA also provides for wider opportunities for public involvement in decision-making and policy implementation. While the EPA provides the framework for environmental policy, sectoral legislation (laws and regulations) details the particular requirements, and specifies enforcement and control mechanisms, and deadlines. Sectoral legislation ensures that EU accession related commitments and other international obligations are observed. At the same time it gives stakeholders clear guidance on compliance with particular requirements as well as establishing mechanisms for public participation in the decisionmaking process. The general principles of the EU policy in the water sector are introduced in the national legislation through the Water Act [6]. The Water Act introduces the principle of integrated water management on the basis of river basins. The development of river basin management plans, and programmes for water bodies’ pollution reduction and elimination, is regulated. The main rules for the operation of the national water monitoring system are specified. Internal monitoring combined with periodical inspections by the state institutions is projected for the big enterprises. A permitting regime for water use and use of water bodies is introduced, including discharges of wastewater from urban collection systems as main tools for regulating water resources use and protection of water from pollution.
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Figure 4. Organisational structure of Bulgarian MSPDA.
2. Crises Protection Organisation 2.1. Management of Crises Prevention and Protection in Bulgaria The Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents (MSPDA) unites the existing agencies responsible for prevention, response, management and recovery in case of crises (Fig. 4). The main aim of MSPDA is to establish a working and efficient, suitably technologically and materially equipped integrated system for the prevention, preparation, response and recovery in case of crises, meeting the real needs of Bulgarian citizens in such cases. The MSPDA policy will aim to establish a unified model for action in emergency situations, efficient crisis management communication, strengthening transparency of the administration work in crisis management. The Ministry’s policy aims to enhance the skills and improve the training of state bodies, legal entities and citizens in the country in these situations. The MSPDA along with the Ministry of Education and Science takes actions to improve the training at secondary schools and universities in the field of civil protection. Along with insurance companies, they work out policies for the prevention and improvement of the population’s insurance culture. The Ministry will also introduce standards for preparation for crises-specific criteria that all public administrations will have to meet. The state policy concerning disasters and emergencies is implemented both with funds allocated under the state budget of the Republic of Bulgaria and funds under the
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PHARE Programme and international donor organisations working in the field of civil crisis management. One of the major priorities of the MSPDA is to ensure preparedness of the population for actions in the event of disasters and accidents. In the aftermath of the floods that hit the country two years ago some heavy problems came to the surface, the poor preparedness of the population to act in response to emergencies being one of them. And it is namely the prompt and adequate conduct in crisis situations that is the major prerequisite for saving the life of people, as well as for reducing material losses. The National Training Centre Directorate has prioritised for the time being the preparation of management bodies responsible for the population protection against disasters and accidents on a local level. The Directorate, together with the Civil Protection National Service Directorate General, developed a training programme for district governors, deputy district governors and mayors of municipalities and districts in Bulgaria. The topic of the training course is “Strengthening the Management Capacity of District Governors, Deputy District Governors and Mayors of Municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria to Carry out Events Concerning Population Protection and Protection of the National Economy in the event of Disasters and Accidents”. The objectives of the training programme are to improve the quality of the work of local and municipal management bodies in the event of disasters and accidents concerning the duly and prompt decisions with a view to population protection and protection of the national economy; to enhance the theoretical and practical preparedness on planning, organisation, management, governance and monitoring of activities related to the protection and elimination of the consequences in the occurrence of disasters and accidents. The National Training Centre Directorate, in cooperation with the Ministry of Education and Science, has drawn up several projects in implementation of the policy and priorities of the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents regarding the training and preparation of the population within the system of education and science. A team of experts and specialists is particularly working on: • • • • • •
Developing a syllabus and timetable of a training course in response to disasters and accidents for trainers; Drawing up a syllabus of a course in response in the event of disasters and accidents for pupils in Grade I–XII; Preparing textbooks and training aids for children at kindergartens; Developing textbooks and training means for pupils at primary and secondary schools, as well as methodological handbooks for teachers; Preparing study resources for university students; and Creating e-textbooks and an educational web site.
2.2. International Activity MSPDA’s major objectives in its international activity are: • •
Implementation of the foreign policy priorities of the Republic of Bulgaria concerning fulfilment of the requirements for NATO and EU membership; Cooperation with the United Nations, the Council of Europe, and other international organisations;
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• • •
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Strengthened cooperation with the countries in South East Europe and the Black Sea Region and establishment of our country as a guarantee for stability and security in the region; Enhanced bilateral international cooperation; Improved organisation and coordination in the preparation and implementation of international humanitarian operations and trainings.
These major objectives underpinning the international activity of the Ministry are carried out through a range of measures focused primarily on: • • • • • •
•
•
•
Planning, coordination and management of bilateral, regional and multilateral activities related to collaboration in the state policy for disasters and accidents; Preparation, management and coordination of the activities on drafting and harmonising bilateral and multilateral international treaties, agreements and other international laws relevant to the state policy for disasters and accidents: Fulfilment of the commitments under international agreements in the field of state policy for disasters and accidents to which the Republic of Bulgaria is a party; Full participation of the Republic of Bulgaria in international structures and organisations connected to the state policy for disasters and accidents and security; Organisation and coordination of activities related to international humanitarian operations; Participation in the coordination and management of the planning and implementation of initiatives relevant to Bulgaria’s NATO membership and of activities aimed at catching up with EU Member States in the field of civil emergency planning and civil protection; Establishment of international cooperation and advance of bilateral and multilateral relations with the aim of guaranteeing alignment with European standards and good practices in prevention, response, management, consequences mitigation and recovery from the damages inflicted by disasters and accidents; Establishment of beneficial cooperation and assistance in introducing systems for monitoring, early forecast and warning, a single information system for disaster and accident management, a single emergency call system ‘112’, providing up-to-date and highly effective equipment for response in the event of disasters and accidents and others; Creation of the necessary administrative capacity to effectively use the preaccession financial instruments, as well as the EU Structural and Cohesion Funds in order to ensure maximum population protection and protection of the economy against disasters and accidents.
The Ministry’s international activity is implemented by officials of the International Relations Directorate in cooperation with the Minister’s Political Cabinet, the Ministry’s Administration and other Ministries and agencies. In the fulfilment of its functions the International Relations Directorate works in cooperation with other bodies and institutions, as well as civil society structures. In pursuit of its objectives the Ministry, through its Directorate, drafts, presents for funding and implements pro-
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grammes and projects, participates in inter-agency working groups, ensures maximum transparency and publicity of its international activities. 2.3. Flood Risk Assessment Floods are natural phenomena which cannot be prevented. However, some human activities and climate change contribute to an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events. It is feasible and desirable to reduce the risk of adverse consequences associated with floods. Floods have the potential to cause fatalities, displacement of people and damage to the environment, to severely compromise economic development and to undermine the economic activities of the Community. Between January 2006 and October 2007, the institutions of the European Union negotiated the text of the Flood Risk Directive 2007/60/EC (FRD). The FRD was formally adopted by European Parliament and by the Council of the European Union (council of ministers) on October 23rd, 2007. The directive was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on November 6th, 2007 and will enter into force on November 26th [7]. Member States now have two years to implement the Directive’s requirements into their respective national legislations. According to the Article 2 of the FRD, flood is “temporary covering by water of land not normally covered by water” and flood risk is combination of: − −
the probability of a flood event the potential adverse consequences.
Often used definition: Risk = probability x consequences: ∞
Flood risk = ∫ D ( h ) .P ( h ) .dh
(1)
0
where: D(h) = damage associated with a particular flood event. P(h) = probability of that flood event occurring (0...1). 2.4. Flood Protection Activities in Bulgaria The basic characteristics of Systems for Emergency/Disaster Aid are: − −
Rapid deployment by air, sea, land transport; Medium water production volume (main priority is drinking water), small decentralised units; Table 1. Total flood risk [8]
Flood level (h)
P(h)
x
D(h)
=
P(h).D(h)
low
0.8
€ 150,000
€ 120,000
medium
0.5
€ 2,500,000
€ 1,250,000
high
0.1
€ 10,000,000
€ 1,000,000
Total flood risk:
€ 2,370,000
P. Gramatikov / Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection
− − −
61
Proven function and reliability; Operability in remote locations with insecure supply chains (scarce fuel, no grid, and destroyed infrastructure); and Deployment, operation and maintenance usually carried out by donor organizations.
The heavy rainfall and floods that occurred in Bulgaria in the period May-August 2005 left substantial devastating consequences for the infrastructure and the regional and local economies. In addition, many human lives have been jeopardized, 17 persons lost their lives, more than 2,000,000 persons directly suffered from the devastating power of the high water. The rainfall caused extensive flooding and material damage and the potential danger of new and larger floods has not yet been overcome. Preliminary data and analyses show that most of these areas have received over 300 l/m2/day. A crisis situation was officially declared by municipal and district authorities in 24 municipalities within Shoumen, Stara Zagora, Targovishte, Veliko Tarnovo, Lovech, Pleven, Pernik, Vratza, Pazardjik, Plovdiv, Smolian and Sofia regions. The population affected by the disasters is around 3.2 million persons. As a result of the floods a great majority of the above-mentioned municipalities are currently deprived of electricity, adequate water supply and lack communications. The analysis carried out shows that more than 14,500 private and public buildings have been flooded and 1,292 of them have been partially or completely destroyed, part of the local population – about 14,000 persons have been evacuated and left without proper housing conditions and amenities, 125 road and railway river bridges have been damaged, 5,736 km of roads and highways were affected and 124 km of railway tracks have been destroyed, including also several railway stations. 52 km of water protection dykes were destroyed. 42 hospitals and health-care establishments flooded and 435 schools, kindergartens and other educational facilities were damaged. Aside from the clear need to restore accessibility and the ecological balance in the most affected areas, the seriousness of the damage to public health and educational institutions cannot be underestimated. The schools receive funding through the municipalities, which in crisis situations leads to major funding delays or even cuts. The health system comprises primarily integrated health care complexes, which, especially in small municipalities, provides both inpatient and outpatient treatment. The Permanent Commission for Civil Protection from Natural Disasters, Calamities and Catastrophes (PCCPNDCC) and the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents, also the Permanent Municipality Committees, have organized evacuations and provided emergency assistance to the population in these areas. Preliminary calculations have estimated that the total damages caused to the affected areas amount to 435.7 MEUR. The purpose of the proposed investment (grant scheme) is to reconstruct the local transport, environmental and public health and educational infrastructures damaged by floods, thereby contributing to the economic development of the areas worst affected by the flooding. It should help to ensure that Bulgaria’s process of preparation for accession is not slowed down by this natural disaster and reduce the adverse effects it has on the budgetary situation of the country. Based on the damage assessment findings, well-targeted and urgent investment measures will be implemented in order to rehabilitate the transport infrastructure, revitalize the environment and restore the public health and educational facilities in the areas concerned.
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2.5. Cross Border Cooperation for Flood Protection with Neighbouring Countries Most European rivers are shared by two or more countries. Management of water resources is therefore an important issue in border regions. Since floods are basin-wide phenomena, they do not respect borders, whether national, regional, local or institutional. People react differently to the flooding of land by sea or rivers. It may be accepted as being caused by nature, which means it cannot be influenced. Flooding may also be seen as a process that produces fertile agricultural land and develops nature, and is therefore very welcome in some situations. Or it may be considered as a threat because of economic damage and danger to life, and is therefore something that should be prevented. These different perceptions of floods lead to discussions about how to manage floods. The cross-border effects of floods make it more difficult to solve flood problems. In addition, preventive measures were not possible in all situations because of differences in legal systems and culture, and because of a lack of understanding or even the lack of the right contacts. Real time monitoring and collection of hydrological data is implemented by the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. Most of the river cross-sections are monitored by observers through foot gauges and the reporting of water levels via telephone or telegraph. From the existing 210-river level measuring stations, 44 are reporting at real or semi-real time. Daily data collection is arranged for 12 of those 44 stations, while for the rest a weekly cycle of daily values for the previous week is arranged. The stations and the frequency of data collection for the Danube region are given in the Table 2 below. Similar sets of real-time data are being made available by Bulgaria to the Romanian partner. The Maritza/Evros/Meric basin, including Arda, Tundja and Ergene tributaries, is one of the major river systems located in the eastern Balkans, with a total length of 550 km and a total catchment’s area of 39,000 km2. About 66% belongs to Bulgaria, 28% to Turkey and 6% to Greece. About 218 km of the river are located in Greece, with 203 km of the river forming the borderline with Turkey. Although Maritza/Evros/Meric River, shared by
Table 2. Operational data used for flood forecasting services and received operationally from the Romanian side River
Cross-section
Frequency
Data type
Danube
Corabia
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Tr. Magurele
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Giurdjiu
Daily
levels/discharges
Danube
Oltenita
Daily
levels/discharges
Iron Gate 1
Orsova
Daily
Levels
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
daily evacuated discharges
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
3 days forecast of daily evacuated disch.
Iron Gates 1 & 2
n/a
3 days forecast of daily incoming disch.
Jiu
Podari
Daily
levels/discharges
Arges
Budesti
Daily
levels/discharges
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Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, is the second longest river after the Danube in the Balkans, this river and its tributary Arda (shared by Greece and Bulgaria) are lacking considerable recent bilateral or trilateral agreements. This situation is mainly due to the past non-trusted political relationships between the three countries. Parts of the Evros/Meric River bed serve as a state border between Greece and Turkey. Thus, both Evros and Ardas rivers are located in a military controlled area. A special permit from military authorities is needed for all scientific or other activities near the rivers. Its delta is an important bird area protected by the Ramsar Convention and the Bern Convention on special species of flora and fauna. It is also cited in the list of regions of special protection according to the EU Directive 79/409/EEC and the national Greek legislation 66/81. Maritza River, which originates in Bulgaria, joins with Arda and Tundja Rivers near Odrin, which are flowing through Bulgaria and Western Thrace respectively. Tundja establishes a 61 km length of Turkey-Bulgaria border until joins to Maritza River. Ergene River, which also joins to Maritza River, is 280 km long and it totally flows in Turkey. Two major tributaries of the Maritza have transboundary sub-catchments themselves: − −
Arda river flows eastward from the Eastern Rhodope mountains (240 km and 5,200 km2 in south-eastern Bulgaria; only 30 km and 345 km2 in Greece) including Kardjali (60,000 inhabitants) and includes various big reservoirs. Tundja river (350 km length and 7,982 km2 in Bulgaria). Main cities are Kazanlak, Sliven (136,000 inhabitants) and Yambol (110,000).
The tributaries Ergene (from Easter Thrace/Turkey) and Arda (Bulgaria and Greece) may induce severe floods and cause a lot of damage to downstream areas. The lower Maritza River regions suffer from floods on Turkish, Bulgarian and Greece territory. Recent years’ floods frequency and magnitude are getting higher and higher. In the past few years the floods occurred at a scale which was not seen in the past twenty years. Besides the floods, decreasing the channel capacity is another polemic part of the region. It becomes clear that improvements in measures for flood prevention and diminishing of flood hazardous effects, could be achieved only through co-operation and use of common information sources. Turkey and Bulgaria have developed three projects – one for information and realtime data exchanging, and two for flood forecasting and warning. These projects are the first common projects which are applied in the region and in the hydrology area. Regarding Greece (GR) and Bulgaria (BG), bilateral cooperation in the use of water dates back to 1964. Both countries ratified the Helsinki Convention for protection and use of trans-boundary watercourses (1992; in Greece it has been in force since 1996) and the Espoo Convention. Since the implementation of Helsinki Convention, Greece and Bulgaria have been cooperating by a joint monitoring in the three common river basins, i.e. Struma, Mesta (including the tributary Dospat) and Maritza (including the tributary Arda). In the following years, bilateral agreements on the use of other trans-boundary rivers waters were signed. Also, cooperation in scientific and technical field for the best management of water resources is established. The main agreements on the protection and use of trans-boundary watercourses are: − −
GR-BG agreement on co-operation for the use of watercourses flowing through the two countries (Legislative Decree 4393/1964). Second Protocol of the GR & BG agreement about the regulation of economic questions and development of the economic co-operation (Legislative Decree
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P. Gramatikov / Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection
− − −
−
4393/1964) agreement between GR & BG concerning the formation of a joint committee for the cooperation in the field of electric energy and the use of cross-border river waters (Sofia, 1971). Agreement between GR & BG on scientific and technical cooperation (Athens, 1973/1976). Protocol for the Joint GR-BG Technical Working Group and Environment Group (approved 1990). Protocol for the co-operation of GR-BG Experts for flood control of Strymonas River (approved on 1980); The Agreement from 1964 on flood protection refers to the section downstream of a series of reservoirs in Bulgaria. It operates between local authorities (when the BG reservoir gates release excess water upstream, they send a warning to the GR local authorities). Protocol of the Meeting of the Joint GR-BG Committee of Experts for the preparation of a common proposal to the EU for the joint monitoring and control of water quality and quantity of the transboundary rivers Maritsa/Evros, Mesta/Nestos and Struma/Strymonas. (1991).
At national level in Greece, the Ministry of Environment is responsible for integrated water management. For trans-boundary rivers the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also involved. Next are the Ministries of Economics, of Agriculture and of Defence to some extend. Concerning planning of water quality, parts of the Evros and Ardas catchments on Greek side are designated as NATURA 2000 sites. For these, planning and decision-making is carried out according to the provisions of the relevant national and EU legislation. The State Hydraulic Works (DSI) is responsible for all surface and sub-surface water resources in Turkey (monitoring and planning, design, construction, and operational activities). Decisions are shared between the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and Ministry of Environmental and Forestry, and local communities. The State Hydraulic Works (DSI) does the planning and has several irrigation projects. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry has carried out several wastewater treatment projects in the basin.
3. Conclusions As a result of the issues discussed above the following conclusions can be made: 1.
2.
The Mesta/Nestos River (Greece/Bulgaria) has a number of hydroelectric power plants on the Greek side which need an adequate river flow to operate properly. At present the inflow into Greece is satisfactory. However the hydroelectric and irrigation complex in the Greek part is very vulnerable to interventions by the equipment in the Bulgarian part of the river basin. It is feared that future interventions in Bulgaria may cause shortfalls in the required water levels in Greece. Common legislation or conventions do not apply to the management of crossborder rivers in Greece like the Evros and Nestos. Greece and Bulgaria are EU members (obliged to comply with the WFD), whereas Turkey is a nonmember, although accession negotiations are currently in progress with the EU.
P. Gramatikov / Bulgarian Policy for Water Resources Management and Flood Protection
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
65
It is important to realise that the amplitude, frequency, duration and impact of floods depend on natural characteristics and man-induced changes within the entire river basin area. In many cases, good cross-border cooperation between local and regional flood management authorities can improve the effectiveness of flood management services in these regions. This will ultimately result in better protection of citizens and the environment and reduction of damage. Climate change appears to increase the chances of flooding, while human intervention and activities appear to reduce the resilience of water systems and their environment. The ongoing occupation of flood plains has not only increased the risk of potential damage, but has also resulted in a loss of ecological, economic and social benefits of wetlands. Simultaneously, the increasing investments in safety have reduced the public awareness of flood risks. The need to develop appropriate strategies, policies and programmes to adapt to the changing circumstances, to reduce the negative impact of flooding and to protect the dynamic function of ecosystems, is now widely recognised. Strategy, policy and measures on the prevention, mitigation and protection of floods should be based on a holistic approach. Achieving this requires cooperation between authorities on a river basin scale, as well as integration of spatial planning and water management, integration of the various functions and uses of water, joint disaster management and increased cross-border public awareness.
References EEA-IMS Indicators: Use of freshwater resources (CSI 018), Assessment Draft: http://ims.eionet.europa.eu/ IMS/ISpecs/ISpecification20041007131848/IAssessment. Strategy for Integrated Water Management in the Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, Sofia, 1997. National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan 2000–2006, Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, MoEW, Sofia, 2001. Freshwater Country Profile – Bulgaria, Decision-Making Programmes and Projects, Sofia, 2003. Environmental Protection Act, Republic of Bulgaria, National Assembly, State Gazette No. 91/25.09.2002, Corrected, SG No. 96/2002. Water Act, Republic of Bulgaria, National Assembly, State Gazette No. 67/1999, enforced on 28.01.2000, amended in SG No 87/2000. Flood Risk Directive 2007/60/EC, OJEU/6.11.2007. Jan Verkade, A brief introduction to the Flood (Risk) Directive, National flood conference, Sofia, November 2007.
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-66
Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning Stephan ANKE, Werner BLOHM and Michael LECHELT Institute for Sanitation and Environment, Hamburg, Division: Water Studies, Water Quality Measuring Network, Marckmannstr. 129b, 20539 Hamburg, Germany E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. Time and again, shipping accidents and major incidents at industrial establishments have demonstrated how quickly serious water pollution can occur, with effects such as fish mortality and other harmful impacts on the aquatic habitat. In order to minimise the consequences of such incidents, continuous water monitoring is indispensable in the interests of early identification and timely countermeasures. This is all the more essential in an industrial conurbation like Hamburg. Here the water quality measuring network, with a current total of ten measuring stations, has been operating on all important bodies of water since 1988. In addition to averting danger, continuous water monitoring makes a contribution to prevention (detection of illegal discharges) and to observing short-term and long-term changes in water quality. Keywords. Automated surface water quality measuring stations, continuous water monitoring, water surveillance network Hamburg
Introduction Inputs of hazardous substances into flowing waters as a result of accidents or illegal discharges can give rise to substantial risks and cause harm to man and the environment. In Europe, with its many countries, such incidents frequently assume transboundary proportions. For this reason a number of arrangements and agreements exist to protect man and the environment from industrial accidents at national, river basin, EU and European UN level. They include technical requirements for operating facilities, liability issues, the preparation of warning and emergency plans, and mutual assistance. Timely and speedy action is always necessary to ensure the success of measures to avert danger and minimise damage. The first step is to register the incident, ascertain its scale and then alert the competent authorities. The warning and emergency plans of the commissions of Europe’s major river basins are largely based on a reporting system that requires the author (pollutant emitter) to notify an incident to the competent authorities immediately after it occurs, supplying all relevant data. In this form the warning and emergency plans are “emission oriented”. If the notification is not made – whether deliberately or as a result of ignorance – there remains a risk of major irreparable harm to man and the environment. This danger could be considerably reduced by means of a networked automatic system for identifying incidents along the watercourse and for raising the alert in the notification system of a warning and emergency plan.
S. Anke et al. / Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning
67
This task could be performed by measuring stations sensibly distributed along the river if they were equipped with a technology that enabled them, by means of suitable automatic measurements in the water – i.e. on an “immission-oriented” basis – to first detect “unusual events”, then identify them as “natural” or “incident-induced”, and finally take an alarm decision based on an assessment of their “relevance”.
1. General Aspects of the Location and Tasks of Automated Surface Water Measuring Stations The quality of stagnant waters and streams is monitored regularly as part of regional, national and international measurement programmes. For this purpose, measuring stations are set up at suitable locations. Measuring stations should be set up in such a way that all major streams can be recorded; that causal relationships can be detected across the country; and that anthropogenic and geogenic impacts can be measured. The issue of trans-boundary effects may also be of importance to the setting up of measuring stations. Possible/suitable locations for measuring stations should relate to one or more of the following: • • • • • •
upstream from the place where streams (relevant to water management) empty into lakes or coastal waters; at important trans-boundary waters near the border; upstream and downstream from conurbations and larger industrial settlements; within important river sections of larger bodies of water; at crucial tributaries immediately upstream from the point of confluence; or at anthropogenically unpolluted river sections (“zero measuring points”, reference measuring points, measuring points of background pollution).
Tasks of measuring programmes should include: •
• •
• • •
Collection, evaluation and assessment of data on water quality (substance concentration with respect to water, suspended matter, sediments and biota; determination of the biological-ecological state of quality and the ecological structure) as a basis for describing the quality of water all across the country; Long-term recording of the quality of streams including background pollution (quality of anthropogenically unpolluted streams) to allow for longer-term and larger-scale trends to be recognised (level of pollution, trends); Compliance with international and national obligations under statutory provisions (e.g. EC directives, state regulations, agreements between states such as ICPDR); monitoring of compliance with predetermined requirements as to water quality (targets/quality standards, for example, under directives 76/464/EEC and 2000/60/EC); Detection and monitoring of critical water conditions, as well as securing of evidence in the case of unforeseen events (e.g. accidents, incidents, and fish mortality); Analysis of substance transport and substance load; and Monitoring of the impact of water use.
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S. Anke et al. / Operation of Automatic Water Monitoring Systems for Emergency Planning
Figure 1. Measuring station “Seemannshöft” on the Elbe in Hamburg/Germany.
The goal of the investigation is to create a database of sufficient size that allows for • • •
the evaluation of the ecological state of bodies of water (chemical and biological); the determination and assessment of water pollution; and the determination of loads and “substance flows” (with estimates of the selective and diffuse portions).
Depending on the water quality-related importance and dynamic (temporal variability of data), a decision is taken on whether the measuring point is sufficient or whether a measuring station has to be set up.
2. Automated Surface Water Quality Measuring Stations Measuring stations are always fixed facilities (e.g. buildings) near bodies of water – it is here that the measured variables are recorded continuously (Fig. 1). Furthermore, these mainly deal with measuring stations that are used for detecting acute waves of pollutants resulting from accidents, incidents, or unintended or illegal inputs. The measuring stations, which are automated and working continuously, create the framework needed for continuous water-quality monitoring, which is not possible with “normal” investigative programmes by taking individual or random samples. The continuous measurements taken at those stations enable scientists to record parameters over a period of time that are characterised by a high degree of variability (mostly strongly dependent on seasonal and meteorological factors). They are also crucial parameters in assessing the results gleaned from laboratory tests (through random samples). These stations are not only equipped with measuring devices, but also with datacollecting devices. Depending on the task at hand, theseS o
ly
on y
ni go
v
y he r
C
no vt s
ra d
he r
no g vo
he r
C
ol iko p N C
et s ga n
M ar
ol ty ye
Vo dy
0,144
Zh
ro pe t ne p D
0,667
0,614
ro ws k
CID0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
Figure 4. Comparitive characteristics of the rate of cells with micro-kernels (on the basis of their conditional indices of damageability) in children living in different cities of Ukraine, 1999–2006, (р < 0,05).
The calculated CID for organisms of children in cytogenetic parameters in view of minimal (P = comfortable) and maximal (P = critical) values of the investigated parameter, testify that in control points there is established a “low” level of genetic damage in epithelial cells, and a “safe” state of organism in the cytogenetic status. It has allowed its consideration as a “reference” in the mutagenic background for the ecological state of control territories of the medical-improving complex “Solyony Liman”, as well as the settlement of Nikita in АR Crimea. In the cities of Dnepropetrovsk, Chervonograd and Chernovtsy was observed an “average” level of damage of cells in children and their “conflicting” state. In the centres of mining and primary processing industries – to which belong the cities of the Dnepropetrovsk region, namely Marganets, Nikopol and Zholtyye Vody (Yellow Waters) – the level of damage of the biosystems is specified as “above average” on the basis of a “threatening” state of children’s organism in the cytogenetic status. As a whole, the ecological situation in the general mutagenic background in the territory of investigated technogenic-loaded cities is estimated as “unsatisfactory”. Mostly, genetic disorders were manifest in the cells of the children living in territory which has been subjected to the significant influence of radioactive releases owing to the disaster in the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station, namely in the city of Chernigov. That area has been specified as having a “high” level of genetic disorders in the cells of children, and a “critical” state of children’s organisms in the cytogenetic status. The ecological situation in the mutagenic background is defined here as “critical”. Thus, the above-mentioned methodology permits not only the ranking of the territories in the toxico-mutagenic background, but also the definition of the levels of ecogenetic danger for all live organisms, including humans. This is imperative for the development and realisation of programmes for the rehabilitation of the state of environmental objects and the population’s health. The offered methodology of the socio-ecological monitoring can be used for similar research in the whole of Ukraine and in other states.
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References [1] The European Policy in Health Reaching for Everybody in the Twenty First Century. // A Working Document for Consultations. The World Health Organisation. 1997. Page 216. [2] Tasks for Reaching Health for All: the European Policy of Public Health Services. Copenhagen: the World Health Organisation. The European Regional Bureau. 1993. Page 322. [3] K. V. Pikul. Abnormal Development in Children from the Nitrate Polluted Territory. / The Environment and Health. 2003. No 2 (25). Page 18-20. [4] E. A. Derkachev, L. B. Ogip, K. Yu. Ogip, І. О. Gubar. The Influence of Ground Pollution with Heavy Metals on the State of Population Health and the Forecast of its Possible Changes. // The Hygiene of Populous Cities. Edition 45. Kiev. 2005. Page 159-165. [5] A. I. Gorovaya, I. I. Klimkina. The Methodology of Socio-Ecological Monitoring with the Use of Cytogenetic Methods. // C. Mothersill et al. (eds.), Multiple Stressors: A Challenge for the Future. – S. 91-102. 2007 Springer. Printed in the Netherlands. [6] A. I. Gorovaya, I. I. Кlimkina. The Use of a Cytogenetic Testing for the Assessment of the Ecological Situation and Effectiveness of Sanitation for children and adults with Natural Adaptogenes. // Cytology and Genetics. 2002. No. 5. Page 21-25. [7] R. M. Arutunyan, E. R. Tumanyan, G. S. Shiriyan. The Analysis of Microkernels in Mucous Oral Cavity for the Assessment of Cytogenetic Effect of Environment Pollutants. // Cytology and Genetics. 1990. – 24, No. 2. Page 57-60. [8] Bottom-Zoological Diagnostics of Population Health State in Connection with the Influence of Environmental Factors. // Methodical Recommendations. MR 2.2.12.068. 2000. Page 42. [9] O. V. Berdnik. The Sensitivity of an Organism to Environmental Factors. // The Environment and Health. 2000. – No. 1 (12). Page 38-42.
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-226
Medical and Biological Aspects of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Influence on the Population of the Republic of Moldova Liubov CORETCHI and Ion BAHNAREL National Scientific and Applied Centre of Preventive Medicine, Gh. Asachi 67 A, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova Abstract. During the 1996–2004 period 850 patients, who were participants in diminishing the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident (PDCCNA), and their children, were investigated in terms of clinical, immunological and cytogenetic analyses. The clinical investigations indicate that the PDCCNA patients, when compared with patients of a control group, were more susceptible to infectious and non-infectious diseases, with the prevalence of large polymorphism of nervous, heart-vascular and gastric-intestinal system, which were accompanied by circulatory disorder of the vegetative nervous system. The immunological analysis revealed alterations in the immune system of the PDCCNA. Cytogenetic research of the lymphocyte cultures of peripheral blood of PDCCNA members living in the Republic of Moldova in the last 15–20 years after the accident, and their children, revealed the deterioration of the hereditary system, being expressed through a high level of genomic, chromosomal, and chromatid type aberration. Chromosomal type of aberrations prevailed in the adults and chromatid type in the children. Keywords. Chernobyl nuclear accident, clinical investigations, cytogenetic analysis, immunology
Introduction Stress factor effects on population health evaluation [9], especially on emergency workers, remains one of the most important problems of contemporary medicine [2] and in this regard the Chernobyl nuclear accident (CNA) that took place on the 26th April 1986 is an eloquent example. Radioactive substances produced as a result of the CNA fell out over a significant part of Europe, including the Republic of Moldova, affecting more than 5,000,000 persons. In the clearance and abatement of the CNA consequences there was participation by a lot of military staff including a great number of reservists. Lack of previous experience in the field (since it was the first large-scale nuclear accident) made it impossible to prepare specially trained personnel for such control and clearance tasks. Consequently, many military staff, even from the first days, were presented to medical authorities with a range of symptoms which were characterized as somatic diseases after detailed investigations [7]. The ionizing radiation influence on the health status of the participants attempting to diminish the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident (PDCCNA) were diffi-
L. Coretchi and I. Bahnarel / Medical and Biological Aspects of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident
227
Figure 1. Diseases spectrum in the CNA workers (%).
cult enough to evaluate, and so called for an adequate multi-lateral study applying modern diagnostic techniques. Large studies were conducted in the Russian Federation, the Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus. Acquired data suggested the existence of a noticeable deteriorating effect of ionizing radiation, produced as a secondary effect of the CNA, with an increased incidence of health-status disturbances in the affected population [3,5,6]. Approximately 3,500 inhabitants from the Republic of Moldova took part in the clearance of the CNA consequences. This study objective comprises the determination of clinical, immunological and cytogenetic features in the PDCCNA from the population of the Republic of Moldova and their descendants.
1. Clinical Aspects of Therapeutic Pathology Manifestation in Cohort of PDCCNA The group comprised patients within the age range 32–54 with an exposure period to ionizing radiation ranging from 15 to 180 days during the clearance of the CNA effects, which during 1986–1987 comprised 90% of participants and during 1988–1989 it was 10% of participants. The control group included 62 persons, also within the age range 32–54, that was a relatively healthy group which was not previously exposed to ionizing radiation. A detailed study of the ionizing radiation exposure influence on the health status of persons situated in the increased radiation activity zone due to the CNA, determined that general morbidity of these patients has its peculiarities. It showed that 308 patients were concomitantly supervised by more than one specialist, i.e. they suffered from multi-systemic pathology. It must be mentioned that psycho-neurological pathologies prevailed in the determined diseases spectrum and in 1998 these were encountered in about 36% of all diagnosed pathologies, thus being the dominant effect. The second most dominant effect was gastro-intestinal system pathology (30.55%), followed by cardiovascular diseases (17.0%). Endocrine system pathology, which was in a state of continuing increase, was the fourth most dominant with 11.65% of cases. Osteoarticular pathology was rather rarely met, being diagnosed in 3.25%, 3.4% and 3.2% respectively in 1996, 1997, and 1998 (Fig. 1). Urogenital diseases were determined in 1.85%, 1.9% and 1.6% of cases respectively in 1996, 1997, and 1998. The analysis carried out allowed the possibility of revealing a dynamic increase overall and in all systems of pathology incidence in the PDCCNA.
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Figure 2. Nervous system diseases in the PDCCNA (%).
Figure 3. Gastrointestinal diseases in the PDCCNA presentation (%).
Cerebrovascular pathology comprised up to 59.6% of the overall nervous system diseases. Patients who suffered from neuro-circulatory dystonia and various degrees discirculatory encephalopathies were predominant. Angiospastic and angiodystonic disturbances in superior and inferior extremity vessels were found in 22.4% cases. Vegetative polyneuropathy was diagnosed in 13.0% cases, mostly being associated with hypothalamic paroxysmal epileptiform crises (3.5%). Spinal vascular affections were registered in only 1.5% of patients with nervous system pathology (Fig. 2.). The most frequent complaints of the patients with predominating nervous system pathology included permanent intensive headache, particularly in the second half of the day, vertigo, marked asthenia, nervousness, insomnia, both superior and inferior extremities numbness, working ability diminution and precoma stages. Chronic liver diseases are the most frequent manifestations of gastro-intestinal system diseases among the PDCCNA (32.8%). Ulcer diseases, chronic gastritis and liver cirrhoses comprised, respectively, 20.45%, 18.6% and 0.45% of the overall number of patients with this group of diseases (Fig. 3). Figure 4 shows the PDCCNA morbidity structure 20 years after the CNA. 2. Cellular Immunity Peculiarities in the PDCCNA Many authors appreciate the major importance of the lymphoid system in the processes of regeneration, rehabilitation, and creation of an increased resistance of the organ-
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Figure 4. Morbidity structure of the PDCCNA 20 years after the CAN.
ism [1,8]. An important role in this direction is attributed to monocytes. Nowadays, it is considered that granule cytopenia, relative lymphocytosis, hyper segmentation, and fragmentation of the neutrophiles nucleus, the presence of lymphocytosis with modifications within the nuclei and cytoplasm, represent certain specific markers of chronic ionizing irradiation. As a result, the ionizing radiation, together with chemical, physical and psychological factors “give birth” to the “Chernobyl syndrome”. Table 1 includes comparative results for the immunological indicators in the PDCCNA and the patients who did not belong to the control group. As can be seen, we analyzed the state of the persons that did not take part in the decrease of consequences of the CNA and were not subject of radiological investigations (n = 62). The analysis of the populations and sub-populations structures of the lymphocytes of the peripheral blood was applied to 100 of the PDCCNA that, for the clinical study, had been divided into three groups. The results of the immunological study showed an authentic decrease (P < 0.05) of the leucocytes number in the PDCCNA (5.51 ± 0.23), in comparison with the patients from the control group (6.6 ± 0.26); the data are included in Table 1. In the PDCCNA the percentage of the T-total lymphocytes was lower (44.33 ± 1.23) than in the control group, i.e. 44.33 ± 1.23 Vs. 47.55 ± 1.07 (P < 0.05). Concerning the T-teophylline-resistant, teophylline-sensitive, and thermo stable lymphocytes, we did not notice an essential difference between the values of these indicators in the PDCCNA and of the control group patients. Further, we established that in the PDCCNA, the B-complementary lymphocytes number diminished under the influence of stressful factors of the CNA. In this context, their percentage constituted 22.39 ± 1.15%, in comparison with the patients from the control group – 21.79 ± 0.76% (P < 0.05), their portion being equal to 0.4 ± 0.15%, (CEW) and for the patients from the control group – 0.57 ± 0.02% (P < 0.05) (Table 1). The above-mentioned results confirm the data from the specialized literature which claims that, under the influence of the ionizing radiations, some changes appear in the system of the cellular immunity.
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Table 1. Characterization of the cellular immunity indicators in the PDCCNA and of patients from the control group (%)
Nr
Immunological indicators
PDCCNA group (n=100)x ± mx
Control group (n = 62) x ± mx
1.
Leucocytes, g/l
5.51 ± 0.23
6.60 ± 0.26*
2.
Lymphocytes, %
34.31 ± 1.56
29.60 ± 1.19*
3.
Lymphocytes, g/l
1.92 ± 0.12
1.84 ± 0.07
4.
T-active Lymphocytes, %
23.15 ± 2.17
24.60 ± 1.06
5.
T-active Lymphocytes 109/l
0.44 ± 0.05
0.44 ± 0.03
6.
T-total Lymphocytes, %
44.33 ± 1.23
47.55 ± 1.07*
7.
T-total Lymphocytes,109/l
0.82 ± 0.05
0.85 ± 0.04
8.
T-teophylline-resistant Lymphocytes, %
30.08 ± 1.20
31.14 ± 1.08
9.
T-teophylline-resistant Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.56 ± 0.05
0.57 ± 0.03
10.
T-teophylline-sensitive Lymphocytes, %
14.41 ± 0.77
15.51 ± 0.58
11.
T-teophylline-sensitive Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.27 ± 0.02
0.28 ± 0.01
12.
T-thermostable Lymphocytes, %
9.45 ± 1.45
8.07 ± 0.89
13.
T-thermostable Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.17 ± 0.13
0.15 ± 0.02
14.
B-complementary Lymphocytes, %
22.39 ± 1.15
21.79 ± 0.76*
15.
B-complementary Lymphocytes, 109/l
0.40 ± 0.15
0.57 ± 0.02*
Notes: * – The difference between the cellular immunity indicators in the PDCCNA and patients from the control group is genuine after the t-Criterion Student (P<0.05); x ± mx – the average value with error.
A rather decisive indicator concerning the evaluation of the functional state of the T-lymphocytes subpopulations constitutes the co-report between the T-helpers and Tsuppressors populations. The decrease in number of T-suppressors is explained by some authors [10] through their amplified radio sensitivity, and the diminishing of their function can lead to the appearance of self-aggression and worsening of patients’ chronic diseases. Of great importance is the simultaneous reduction of the number of T-lymphocytes and T-suppressors, considered as an initiation in the development of secondary immunologic disturbances. In the case of the PDCCNA investigations, we established that the value of the co-report T-helpers/T-suppressors was higher than the same value for the patients from the control group, which indicates an augmentation of the number of T-helpers in the PDCCNA, in comparison with the patients from the control group. From the total number of stressful factors that influenced the PDCCNA, radiation was found to be the principal one, and so showing that the cellular marker was more sensitive to ionizing irradiation was of great interest. For this purpose, we made the corelational and regressive analysis for each immunological indicator, for the exposure time of the PDCCNA and for their age, counting the coefficients of correlation with the dose of ionizing irradiation. We traced out that the most sensitive indicators of the chronic effect in the majority of doses of ionizing radiations were both the percentage and the absolute number of the B-complementary lymphocytes (r = –0.54 ± 0.01 and r = –0.66 ± 0.01). For the rest of the cases, the dependence dose-effect was of a negative nature too, yet the values of the coefficients were lower and we established an unimportant dependence. For example, in the case of the relation between the dose and
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Table 2. Characterization of the immunoglobulin in the PDCCNA (g/l) Name of the studied groups
IgA
IgM
IgG
1
2
1
2
1
2
1.
The group with dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis; n = 21
2.58
1.1–10.9
1.74
0.29–15.6
13.44
0.8–18.4
2.
The group with psycho neurological disorders; n = 22
2.27
1.6–2.4
2.41
0.5–12.4
15.68
0.64–23.0
3.
The group with gastrointestinal disorders; n = 19
3.99
1–35
1.09
0.41–2.1
14.3
9.8–23.2
4.
Optimal norm of the immune rank in men aged 21–40 years old
1.12–1.68
8
8.38–10.07
1.75–2.43
Notes: 1 – average value; 2 – the interval.
the lymphocytes, r = –0.28 ± 0.2; the system T-active lymphocytes – dose, r = –0.33 ± 0.1; and for the system T-total lymphocytes – dose r = –0.06 ± 0.77.
3. Humoral Immunity Indices Modifications in the PDCCNA We examined the IgA, IgM and IgG (i.e. immunoglobulins A, M and G) levels in 62 of the PDCCNA in order to study the influence of the ionizing radiation factor upon the values of humoral immunity indicators in PDCCNA. These persons were distributed into three groups according to the clinical results: (i) having dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis; (ii) disturbances of gastrointestinal tract; and (iii) psycho-neurological disorders. The results of the investigation showed an increase of IgA levels in every studied group, the values being 2.58 g/l, 2.27 g/l, and 3.99 g/l, respectively, for the patients having dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis, disturbances of gastrointestinal tract, and psycho-neurological disorders. The optimal norm of the IgA values was between 1.75–2.43 g/l. A noticeable increase (3.99 g/l) was traced out in patients with gastrointestinal tract disturbances, the interval of variability of that indicator being larger, i.e. 1–35 g/l. Concerning IgM, we established a slight increase of this indicator (2.41 g/l) in the group with psycho-neurological disorders. The minimal value was 0.5 g/l, and that maximum was 12.4 g/l. As for the other two groups of patients, the average IgM values corresponded to the norm and constituted 1.74 g/l (minimum value – 0.29 g/l, maximum – 15.6 g/l) for the group with dysmetabolic cardiomiopatitis, and 1.09 g/l (minimum value – 0.4 g/l, maximum – 2.1 g/l) for the group with gastrointestinal tract disturbances. For men aged 21–40 years old (which age range corresponds with the age of men from the PDCCNA group) the normal IgA value constituted 1.12–1.68 g/l. Regarding IgG there could be observed a growth of 30–50% in the amount in all investigated groups when compared with the maximum value of the optimal norm (8.38–10.07 g/l), especially in the group with psycho-neurological disorders where the IgG average value represented 15.68 g/l, with limit intervals of 0.64 g/l – minimum value and 23.0 g/l – maximum value (Table 2).
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The increases in IgM and IgA values were associated with a high level of lymphocytes proliferations, which presumes the presence of antigen stimulation of the immune system.
4. Cytogenetic Side Effects in the PDCCNA Inhabitants of the Republic of Moldova The negative influence of the ionizing radiation on the cells depends on the direct transmission of the energy of charged particles or secondary electrons towards the atoms and the molecules of the cellular material. The main results of this action are that the ions and the atoms are excited by the particle that crosses the cell. Then follows the IInd stage when the ions interact with the molecules from the cell and the last, being excited, can dissociate forming free radicals. The IIIrd stage (chemical) is the result of the interaction between free radicals and intracellular macromolecules: DNA, proteins and macromolecules [6]. The biological effects of the ionizing radiation depend on the quantity of energy absorbed by the tissues or cells and that is why measuring the dose is of great importance, i.e. the severity of the effect depends on the dose absorbed by the tissues. One of the characteristic manifestations of the influence of the ionizing radiation on the cell is the inhibition of the mitotic activity. Substantial doses of ionizing radiation, if applied, can affect large cytoplasmatic structures, as well as processes of synthesis, that occur within the cytoplasm. The investigation of cytogenetic effects, as an element of retro-biodosimetry consisted of the estimation of the genetic risk associated with the ionizing irradiation, with the study of the CNA influence on the PDCCNA. In order to achieve this purpose, we followed some objectives: • •
The detection of the influence of ionizing radiation actions on chromosomal apparatus in the PDCCNA and their descendants, that resulted after the CNA; Output of the biological dosimeter based on the cytogenetic analysis, within the PDCCNA group, according to the dicentric analysis scheme;
Figure 5. Chromosomes aberration detected in the PDCCNA.
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Figure 6. Genomic mutations detected in the PDCCNA and in the patients from the control lot during the first (M1, K1) and second (M2, K2) mitosis, (X ± mX, %).
Figure 7. The frequency of chromosomes aberration detected in the PDCCNA and in patients from the control group.
• •
To establish the ionizing irradiation dose and the incidence of the chromosomal aberrations correlation; and To detect the PDCCNA children’s hereditary diseases frequency.
The results denote that in the PDCCNA, the frequency of genomic mutations and chromosomal aberrations was higher, in comparison with that of the control group (Figs 6 and 7). The significance of the study of the mechanism of chromosomal aberrations is determined by the fact that they play a major role in the development of the deterioration because of the ionizing radiation action. Biodosimetric research shows that during the cytogenetic study of the blood lymphocytes, the quantitative analysis of the dicentrics and ring chromosomes has an essential role. The results of the investigations show that there were detected both cells with one dicentric and two dicentrics, the former predominating. Summarizing the above mentioned factors, we can consider that the results obtained on the cytogenetic analysis in the PDCCNA who were living in the Republic of Moldova, demonstrate the increase of chromosomal mutagenesis in somatic cells of the investigated persons, which include those patients in the group with a high risk of pathologies with a genetic component.
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Table 3. Frequency and the spectrum of chromosomal aberrations in the PDCCNA’s children The examined parameters
Detected aberrations
X ± mX, %
Chromosomes general state in metaphase
1. Endoreduplication
0.04 ± 0.004
2. Incomplete separation of chromatids
0.13 ± 0.08
3. Complete separation of chromatids
0.70 ± 0.2
Polyploidy
0.39 ± 0.1
Hyperploids
0.31 ± 0.1
1. Gaps
3.9 ± 0.4
2. Solitary fragments
2.35 ± 0.3
3. Changes
0.17 ± 0.09
Genomic anomalies
Chromatid-type aberrations
Chromosome-type aberrations
Pair fragments: 1. Changes
0.57 ± 0.2
2. Dicentrics
0.09 ± 0.06
3. Rings
0.04 ± 0.004
4. Abnormal monocentrics
0.04 ± 0.004
During the investigations of the PDCCNA descendants’ karyota, there were involved 23 boys and girls, born between 1989 and 1992. The total number of investigated metaphases amounted to 2,300 and the results obtained are presented in Table 3.
5. Congenital Malformations Study in Children from the Republic of Moldova In order to assess and monitor the influence of mutagenic factors within the populations, radio-ecological and genetic monitoring is applied, as well as the use of the most efficient methods, namely systems of supervision and assessment of the frequency of congenital malformations. The morphogenetic disturbances present a major risk (morphological congenital anomalies without functional disturbances), and are considered minor anomalies of development. They can be caused by both endogenous and exogenous factors. The presence of the minor anomalies within the population can serve as a criterion for a hostile ecology. The detection of three or more minor anomalies allows us to suppose the appearance of a hereditary polygene disease, but the presence of five or even more anomalies, presents a major factor of risk. The purpose of our research was to study the frequency of congenital anomalies in children from different geographical zones of the Republic of Moldova. The study included 863 children aged 1–15 years old from 29 areas of the republic: from the North, 236 children, from the Center, 354, and from the South, 273 children. We assessed the following indicators of the hereditary pathologies: 1.
2. 3. 4.
Minor anomalies (MA) caused by the disturbances of the processes of morphogenesis, during the intra-uterine period. We classified them according to the number of MA detected in a child. Congenital malformations (CM) of polygene etiology have been described according to the universal classification of diseases. Multiple syndromes of hereditary etiology (chromosomal and genes syndromes) were described. Polygene hereditary diseases are mainly caused by external factors.
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Table 4. The frequency of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases in different zones of the Republic of Moldova (10,000 children) Pathologies
Total number of minor anomalies
North
Centre
South
RM
1
2
3
4
3927.9 ± 317.9
3607.0 ± 255.2
4234.4 ± 299.0
4017.3 ± 166.8
P
P > 0.05 P1.2 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 1–2
118.6 ± 21.0
P1.4 < 0.05 251.4 ± 23.0
157.5 ± 22.0
185.4 ± 13.2
P2.3 < 0.05 P2.4 < 0.05 P1.2 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 3–5
P1.3 < 0.01 622.8 ± 31.5
327.6 ± 24.9
274.7 ± 27.0
391.6 ± 16.6
P1.4 < 0.01 P3.4 < 0.01 P1.2 < 0.05
Minor anomalies 6–8
P1.3 < 0.01 194.9 ± 25.7
288.1 ± 24.0
424.9 ± 29.9
305.9 ± 15.6
P2.3 < 0.01
Minor anomalies 9–11
–
25.4 ± 8.3
69.6 ± 15.4
33.6 ± 6.1
P2.3 < 0.05
Congenital malformations
266.9 ± 22.8
248.5 ± 36.8
358.9 ± 40.8
288.5 ± 22.9
P3.4 < 0.05
38.1 ± 12.4
11.3 ± 5.6
25.6 ± 9.5
23.1 ± 5.1
p > 0.05
Monogenic pathologies
29.6 ± 11.0
8.4 ± 4.8
3.6 ± 3.6
11.5 ± 3.6
P1.3<0.05
Pathologies with chromosomal etiology
8.7 ± 5.9
2.8 ± 2.8
21.9 ± 8.8
10.4 ± 3.4
P2.3 < 0.05
Polygenic pathologies
258.4 ± 28.5
355.9 ± 25.4
212.4 ± 24.7
283.8 ± 15.3
Total number of hereditary diseases
P2.3 < 0.01
P1.2 < 0.05 P2.3 < 0.01
The analysis of the results shows that, according to the spread frequency of all MA between the zones of the Republic of Moldova, we did not notice an authentic difference. Concurrently, we established that MA frequency, (1–2 anomalies in a child/multiple MA (6–8 in a child), was lower in children from the northern part of the country, constituting 194.0 ± 25.79 cases, and higher in those from the southern part, namely. 424.91 ± 29.92 cases (p < 0.01). In this region, 9–11 MA in one child, were also very frequent, representing 69.6 ± 15.4 cases in 10,000 children, the average in the republic being 33.6 ± 6.1 (p < 0.05) cases (Table 4). The analysis of CM-spreading frequency observed an increase in children from the southern parts – 358.97 ± 40.89 cases (p < 0.05). The anomalies of the following systems were prevalent: digestive – 150.18 ± 21.62 cases; urinary – 146.52 ± 21.4 cases;
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Table 5. The frequency of congenital malformations according to genetic monitoring of newborn children between 2000 and 2001 in the Republic of Moldova (10,000 newborn) Type
North
Centre
South
Republic
1
2
3
4
P
P1.4 < 0.01 P1.3 < 0.01 Minor anomalies
28.58 ± 1.8
45.1 ± 1.8
58.11 ± 2.71
43.64 ± 1.01
P1.2 < 0.01 P3.4 < 0.01 P2.3 < 0.01 P1.4 < 0.01
Congenital malformation
P3.4 < 0.01 154.11 ± 4.1
195.33 ± 3.8
217.03 ± 5.2
188.86 ± 2.49
P1.2 < 0.01 P1.3 < 0.01 P2.3 < 0.01
musculoskeletal – 36.63 ± 11.37 cases; and genital – 14.65 ± 7.27 cases (p > 0.05). MA and CM frequencies were compared with the results obtained via the monitoring of congenital anomalies in newborns, which has been applied in the Republic of Moldova since 1989. The results, presented in Table 5, show a major frequency both of CM (217.03 ± 5.2), and MA (58.11 ± 2.71) in newborn children from the southern part (p < 0.01). Concerning the northern part, we established a lower frequency of CM – 154.11 ± 4.15 cases and MA – 28.58 ± 1.8 cases, in comparison with the central part of the republic (p < 0,01).
6. Conclusions 1.
2.
3.
The clinical study of the general morbidity structures of the PDCCNA allowed the highlighting of the fact that diseases of psycho-neurological, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular systems prevail. We noticed an increase of 3–4 times the frequency of disturbances of the above-mentioned systems’ pathologies in the PDCCNA, in comparison with the pre-CNA period. Classical rosette formation tests explained the following disturbances in the PDCCNA immune status: diminution of the T-total and B-complementary lymphocytes absolute number, and net increases in IgG and IgA immunoglobulin levels. The correlative and regressive analysis of immunological parameters’ dependence on the ionizing radiation dose determined the negative linear correlation between the B-complementary lymphocytes number and the absorbed dose (r = –0.54). The cytogenetic examinations of the lymphocyte population have traced the effect on the reproductive system in the PDCCNA and manifest through the increase in chromosomal aberrations frequency on the genomic, chromosomal and chromatid levels. The chromosomal aberrations predominated. Thus, the average frequency of the hyperploids cells at the participants was 8.0 times higher in comparison with the control group. The level of solitary and pair
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fragments was 3.6 and 5.0 times higher in comparison with the control group. The analysis of the dicentric distribution allowed us to carry out the retrobiodosimetry in the PDCCNA. The determination of the type of immune response according to the level and the co-report of determinants expressing on the surface of the immunology regulatory T-lymphocytes makes the method more informative and it can serve as a marker in clinical forecasting. One cannot exclude the fact that the PDCCNA disturbances of the immune system, according to the IInd type of reactions, presents the group at high risk to further development of the lymph proliferate diseases and so requires regular immunological monitoring.
References [1] Н. Опополь, Р. Коробов, Эколого-гигиенический Мониторинг: проблемы и решения. Кишинев: Центр. Типогр, 2001, 238. [2] I. Bahnarel, The prevention of the local nuclear accidents in the Republic of Modova, IAEA-CN-70/88, Contributed papers “Safety of radiation sources and security of radioactive materials”, Conference held in Dijon, France, 1998. [3] А.А. Ильин и др., Экологические особенности и медико-биологические последствия аварии на ЧАЭС, Медицинская радиология (1989), № 11, 59-81. [4] V.G. Bebeshko, V.I. Klimenko, L.N. Yukhimuk, et al., The hematopoietic system and bone marrow microenvironment state of the persones which were heavily irradiated as a result of the Chernobyl accident, Proccedings of the International round table “Chernobyl: Never again”. Italy (1994), 87-89. [5] E. Botezatu, O. Iacob, Contribution of Chernobyl Accident to human contamination with Strontium-90, Long-term health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. 2nd International Conference. Kiev (1998), 25. [6] G.G. Boroday, Zh.V. Usatenko, Indices pathological affection among children included into clinical and epidemiological register, Long-term consequences of the Cernobyl disaster, 2nd International Conference. Kiev (1998), 23. [7] L. Andrieş, G. Pădure, L. Rusu et al., Metode unificate de cercetare ale statusului imun. Chişinău (1993), 30. [8] В.Ю. Нугис, А.А. Чирков, Способ оценки дозы и величины облученного объема тела при частичном радиационном поражении по результатам цитогенетического анализа культур лимфоцитов периферической крови, Радиoбиология 29 (1986), № 6, 838-840. [9] N. Dubinin, Genetica moleculară şi acţiunea radiaţiilor asupra eredităţii, Bucureşti: Ed. Ştiinţifică (1963), 286. [10] О.И. Потетня, Сравнительная оценка структурных повреждений хромосом лимфоцитов человека в различных стадиях митотического цикла при облучении источниками 60Со и 232То с разной мощности дозы. Aвтореф. дис. на соиск. уч. степ. канд. биол. наук. Обнинск (1990).
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Theme 5 Hazard/Risk Communication/Public Participation
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-241
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PIMS as a Communication Tool Between PfP Nations in Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness Prepared by PIMS Program e-mail:[email protected] http://www.pims.org
Abstract. PIMS support for PfP nations has been evolving for more than ten years. Originally, the efforts were primarily focused on providing connectivity and computer equipment, as well as supporting various events. But over the past three years PIMS has additionally been developing and implementing tools for better information sharing, employing Internet based concepts and technologies Keywords: PIMS, communication, innovative technologies, communities of interest.
Introduction PIMS, which stands for Partnership for Peace Information Management System, designs, integrates, and provides innovative technologies and services to facilitate collaboration and strengthen relationships in the Euro-Atlantic and Partnership for Peace (PfP) community. PIMS is people-centric and strives to increase participant interaction and interoperability so that the community can cooperate fully on priority areas such a Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP), Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), Civil Emergency Planning, Peacekeeping Operations and others.
1. PIMS Role in the PfP Community For over a decade, PIMS has provided a secure distributed Intranet to link PfP Partners with US and NATO Colleagues. A specific focus is to build partner capacity related to technology while focusing on priority topics such as Defence Institution Building, Defence Reform, and Response to Terrorism. PIMS designs and delivers technical solutions with the aim of increasing partner interoperability, integration, efficiency and transparency in order to prepare PfP partners for future coalition operations. This capability reaches 'beyond desktop' to include hardware, software, peripherals, satellite bandwidth/local ISP rental, as well as the logistics, IT support, network administration to keep the network functioning. Additionally, PIMS extends these capabilities to the site of interoperability exercises and conferences so that they function efficiently and participants reap the most benefit.
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PIMS Program / PIMS as a Communication Tool
In November 2004 the European Office of SPAWAR System Charleston was selected by OSD to take over the management of PIMS due to their technical competency and experience in such projects. Since then, the technical branch upgraded the Internet-based collaborative and communications capabilities available to PfP Partners and Exercises. Now, through the PIMS Members, the PfP Training Centres, PfP Consortium and other powered-by-PIMS websites, communities of interest can easily engage in discussion on priority topics, harmonize policies and procedures, and search for expertise in password protected environments PIMS seeks cost-effective solutions wherever possible. As local connectivity becomes more reliable, PIMS Network Technicians and In-Country Coordinators adjust the network configurations to maintain a good level of connectivity. These collaborative environments assist participants to share and capture knowledge that can be tagged and searched in ways not previously possible. Through this collaborative platform participants have access to integrated instant-messaging clients, voice-calling and can collaborate on projects through blogs and threaded discussions. Essentially, PIMS is a multinational social network, a community of practice, for exchanging information on the security cooperation programmes of the members involved, as the aim of PIMS is 'to coordinate the efforts' offering assistance and with the countries implementing their IPAPs and potential MAPs. PIMS acts as a communication tool between PfP nations as well through the following methods: 1. 2.
3.
To meet in person at different events (workshops, conferences, exercises) To keep in touch by other means : PIMS Members Website, exchanging email (we offer the benefits of effective email, cheap, fast with ability to reach many people almost instantly), sending and receiving each other documents. Working groups where members can consolidate and keep track of the conversations. With these working groups, there is an opportunity to build upon the knowledge of previous meetings, instead of reinventing the wheel each time.
2. “Many-to-Many” Communication versus to “One-to-One” and/or “One-toMany” Communication PIMS websites act as a “Marketplace” or “Common Virtual Office” for the PfP community. Participants keep in touch with others through the contact directory, find upcoming events, and consult reference pages on NATO/PfP Cooperative Topics and a Glossary of terms. Instead of communication “One-to-One” and/or “One-to-Many” PIMS sites offer the option of “Many-to-Many “communication. The early Internet applications of e-mail, FTP and Telnet are characterized as 'one-to-one,' because they are primarily communication means from one individual (or computer) to another. The benefits are that this kind communication is relatively cheap and it’s easy to reach a number of people quickly. But, these methods have limitations. People are inundated and overwhelmed by email. Email chains create 'inbox spam', and also with the entry and exit of members of the group, it's difficult to know who should be part of the email announcement. When People exit the group their background knowledge (mostly stored in their Inbox) goes with them. Books, printing press, TV tower are examples of “One-to-Many” communication.
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In “Many-to-Many” communication environments people are able to both contribute and receive information. As a member of PIMS supported sites, one can start an instant messaging session, use a multi-lingual chat aid, and post a comment, share information on the topic of interest. Users are there to talk with each other. These tools facilitate communication and interoperability. For its NATO/PfP audience, PIMS provides technology that enables communication and collaboration in new ways. PIMS capabilities are manifested primarily in the form of Internet-based applications that enable groups of people to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. These password-protected environments differ from static website where one webmaster is responsible for posting content. Instead, on a PIMS instance, the participants themselves are the primary content creators. The members are enabled, through the tools, to publish their conversations and communications among small teams or entire communities. The overall goal of the PIMS Members site is to be the electronic manifestation of the human social network and assist in day-to-day working life, which is making these bilateral/multilateral processes work more smoothly and effectively.
3. Communities of Interest (COI) and/or Online Working Groups PIMS Members Website hosts Communities of Interest (COIs), mostly called in IT terminology “Online Working Groups”, on priority topics critical to NATO-PfP Interoperability and Partner Capacity Building. PIMS sites integrate the best of 'Web 2.0' technology, to provide opportunities for communication online in a 'need to share' environment. PfP Partner and NATO Practitioners and topic Subject-Matter Experts are encouraged to take part in interactive discussions about the NATO Cooperative topics. One may browse the listing of communities and subscribe to groups of interest. Participants can subscribe to topics of interest relating to the PfP Community, NATO, CMEP papers and events. PIMS online environments like members.pims.org, the PfP Consortium Portal, or exercise instances such as Combined Endeavor and RESCUER, are tailored for the specific group of people, yet all these sites enable the participants of each group to post and 'pull' data from the site that makes it useful to their everyday lives. For example, working groups that may have traditionally communicated only on email, now have an opportunity to post presentations, reports, audio and video files to the site for sharing. Then, others can begin conversations in a 'threaded discussion' that displays the discussion for future reference. The instances offer improved asynchronous communication, i.e. exchanges that do not require the parties to be present at the same time. But, these online sites also have real-time communication tools embedded into the software. For example, if you see a colleague present online, you can start a web-based instant-message conversation. PIMS sites have a new Multi-Lingual Chat capability that does basic translations that can assist with conversations in an international environment (Figure 1).
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Figure1: Multi-lingual Chat concept The online working groups are set up to be permissions-based, meaning that what you see on the website is in accord with the groups to which you belong. The groups are “closed”, meaning that new members must be approved by a designated administrator. These groups reside among other PIMS Members working groups, but are more controlled than regular communities of interest. PIMS technicians assist the Chairperson and members with user questions, and account management issues. This site is a “two way street.” It does 'broadcast' information as many websites do, but it should be thought of as a messaging platform, discussion area as well. An individual can also start their own discussion, make a comment, or pose a question in response to someone else. These online conversations are saved for others to see and take part in.
4. In Support of Civil Emergency Preparedness PIMS is being used extensively for information management, civil military emergency planning, and support for the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center, a NATO activity conducted in collaboration with donor nations. PIMS supports the Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP) initiative for several years, through the technical and personnel support of the CMEP events, and, recently with the new, powered by PIMS, CMEP website (https://cmep.pims.org). Civil Military Emergency Preparedness (CMEP) is the US Department of Defense term for a program to encourage the agencies responsible for Civil Emergency Planning (CEP) in each Partner nation, and their military counterparts, to cooperate in sustained information exchange for emergency preparedness and crisis management. At the moment, the PIMS staff is building the CMEP online library (archive), where the content related to all these events can be found; as one of the CMEP event participants once said: 'Here you can find the whole wisdom of CMEP through the years'. Before creating the software, the design team developed a point of view of knowledge that provided a framework to work:
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• • • • •
Knowledge is both a “good” and a “flow”; Knowledge is dynamic and unpredictable; People are the source of Knowledge; Information transactions form basis of understanding Knowledge; The higher the number of transactions and participants in exchange the more valuable the model (Moore's law); • Intelligence about transactions informs where Knowledge lives; • Focus on derivative models for Knowledge trend identification; and • Interoperability and Extensibility of Knowledge interactions are framework. The goal is to develop a modular transactional framework.. a 'Network of Networks' (Figure 2).
Figure2: Modular transactional framework.concept
The software developers kept six design rules in mind when designing the platform architecture: • Be Modular - Evolving and Emerging Modular design • Simplify! • Embrace Diversity • Be Standards Driven & Self Descriptive • Embrace and Extend • Post and Smart Pull
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PIMS end-to-end event-support capabilities are designed to increase participant interaction so that groups can work together before, during and after a simulated disaster, in the case of Civil Emergency Preparedness. End-to-end means that PIMS provides a full range of capabilities and services including comprehensive connectivity, event websites, and IT experts to train and assist planners and participants. PIMS capabilities support the entire event life cycle - from concept development to afteraction support. Most websites are used year after year, building an online knowledge and lessons learned repository on the recurring event.
5. Conclusions PIMS websites provide a rich and collaborative online experience that is designed to easily integrate with the way people work already. PIMS-powered environments utilize innovative technologies that function behind a user-friendly interface. These collaborative websites strive to increase the interactivity of the users and allow them to find and create information ready to be shared among them. With instant messaging, chat, voice, and video conferencing, PIMS users can search, find, and contact potential partners and colleagues. With blogs and distributed web publishing, PIMS users can share their information with others, add their expertise to topics, and collaborate with working group colleagues – all in real time. PIMS collaborative sites offer a network platform for disaster management collaborative messaging and communications capability to support nations in their efforts to coordinate the disaster management and humanitarian emergency response, civil emergency planning, and to provide GIS tools and other resources that aid in a nation's overall capability to effectively respond to natural and man-made environmental disasters.
References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
PIMS Members website https://members.pims.org CMEP PIMS website https://cmep.pims.org Public PIMS site http://www.pims.org SPAWARMNIS collaborative environment https://mnis.spawaeurope.net WIKIPEDIA http://www.wikipedia.org
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-247
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Licensing of Hazardous Industries and Public Participation in the Ukraine Tetyana BODNARCHUK State Ecological Inspection, Lviv Region Abstract. In Ukraine goals of industrial development should correspond to the strategy of technological and ecological safety on the basis of sustainable development. This article deals with the mechanisms of technological emergency management and licensing of environmentally hazardous branches of industry in Ukraine, and the public impact on environmental policy. Keywords. Technological safety, licensing, regulation, emergencies
Background In times of establishing new types of economic relations, it is important to find out a model of industrial development that provides economic growth and takes into account environmental needs. Insofar as there is no integral system for economic and ecological assessment that is suitable for modern industrial relations, there is a need for methodological developments and concrete proposals, especially for chemical and oil industries. Due to a number of negative and positive factors, social and economic consequences of transformation towards market relations are very contradictory. For example, structural changes in Ukrainian industry go together with a sharp decline in production and a high rate of reduction of hazardous discharges, especially in chemical and oil industries. Some large enterprises are technically outdated, and are therefore especially dangerous for the environment, or have totally stopped production. There is trend to move towards less polluting industries, although this is not due to technical, technological and ecological transitions in the industry. At the same time economic crises led to incredible reductions in expenditure to compensate the economic damage. So the issue of environmentally-friendly industry became especially urgent. In times of structural changes such transition should be based on the main principles of sustainable development. Scientific research in Ukraine, and outside, concerns forms and methods of management for environmentally hazardous companies. However, the issues of environmental impact assessment of hazardous enterprises in Ukraine and its regions at the stage of transformational structural changes are not studied to the full extent. 1. Research Goals and Tasks The goal of the research is to assess the impact of institutional, structural, regional and market changes on development of environmentally dangerous industries and to analyse the conditions of licensing in Ukraine.
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According to this goal the tasks are as follows: • • • • • •
To analyse structural changes in Ukrainian industry, the state and tendencies of development of the chemical and oil industry; To identify modern environmental and economic problems related to the impact of industry on the environment and their regional features; To identify external impacts and ecological risks from environmentally dangerous industries; To generalise the main trends of dangerous impacts on the environment from ecologically dangerous industries; To analyse the system of licensing dangerous types of industry in Ukraine; and To analyse the influence of public opinion on environmental decision-making in Ukraine.
2. Economic and Environmental Problems of Dangerous Operations in Ukraine Ukrainian industry, as currently located, has severe economic and ecological problems, leading to significant losses due to the deterioration of environmental quality, when compared with normal values, due to external impacts. Therefore, according to the adopted classifications, the majority of Ukrainian regions are considered as zones of environmental catastrophes. This is the case for Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizzhya, Donetsk and Odessa regions. However, the territorial structure of the chemical industry of Ukraine has been changed. First of all this is the case for regions where environmentally hazardous industries were the most developed. The share of chemical industry in the Dnipropetrovsk region almost doubled (from 9.5% in 1990 to 17.4% in 2007), even more so in the Kyiv region (including Kyiv city) where it was 2.4 times (from 8.9 to 21.2%). From 1994 the chemical industry in the Kyiv region stabilised; starting from 1996, oil and pharmaceutical industries started to grow. It is proven that the high concentration of chemical industry in the Kyiv region due to the increased growth of chemical and oil chemical potential of Ukraine in 1960–1980 was one of the most important causes of the regional environmental crisis. Its features are the effect of synergy of small but very toxic doses of chemical substances with radioactive pollution, which causes irreversible harm to the environment and people’s health. Detailed analysis of primary statistical documents for the majority of environmental hazardous chemical enterprises of the region showed that the total decrease in production due to the transformation of Ukrainian economy was 51%, the reduction of hazardous substance emissions reduced by 56%. For the Kyiv region, these figures are 37% and 51% respectively or, in absolute figures, 140,000 tons, out of which 9,000 tons (or 80%) is due to chemical and oil industry. However, despite the significant reduction in emissions due to the closure of the especially hazardous operations (Table 1), their technological impact, according to national and international norms, can be characterised as an internal regional environmental catastrophe. Since 1996 the chemical industry has grown annually by 3.5%, and so there is a threat for further deterioration of the environment. There is a need to develop a methodology for assessing the regional environmental state reflecting the process of restructuring of industry as a whole, and especially the chemical and oil industry. The state
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should control the process of structural change and economic growth in the chemical industry using environmental and economic assessment of such processes and mechanisms for compensation of the costs of environmental protection. Firstly, the methodology of such assessment should be improved; secondly, complex method of cost compensation should be developed. This mechanism should reflect peculiarities of the transition period, the establishment of new market relations and the need for strengthening the regulating role of the state in environmental protection. Using such an approach to economic development, Ukraine will be capable of implementing the main principles of the concept of sustainable development. On the basis of conducted research, there is a need to improve the methodology for the assessment of hazardous impacts of the chemical and oil industry on the environment because: •
•
There is no assessment of complex (integrated) hazardous impacts of industrial enterprises and a methodological approach to their synergistic impact – when the integrated impact is more environmentally hazardous than the simple sum of the individual values of the impacts of all the enterprises, which for each individual enterprise do not exceed significantly the maximum allowable concentrations; A system of statistical reporting (ecological monitoring) in Ukraine does not correspond to international requirements for complex analysis and the integrated assessment of hazardous impact on the environment.
One of the main tasks of state policy in the field of technological safety and civic protection for the future, described in “Strategy of Economic and Social Development for 2000–2004” and Action Plan of the government, approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, is to establish: reliable guarantees for the safe life of the people; technological safety; to prevent emergencies at specially hazardous enterprises; and to reach high norms and standards of protection of population and area from natural and technical emergencies. To implement these tasks, the country should improve the mechanism of technological emergency management and develop relevant legislation.
3. Natural and Technological Safety of Ukraine The present level of natural and technological safety of Ukraine is characterised by technological overloads on the environment. Regions with an excessive industrial load are the zones with very high risks of emergencies. These risks are constantly growing due to an increase in the percentage of outdated technologies and equipment, and a reduction in the speed of restoration and modernization of production processes. Depreciation of plant in all sectors of the Ukrainian economy is around 50%. Potentially hazardous industries form a large part in the structure of the national economy – they produce around 1/3 of all production. In conditions of the market economy, in order to ensure proper safety of citizens and the state in case of emergencies, the country should use economic instruments of emergency management at all levels. However, at present, such mechanisms are not systematised and their efficiency and integrated impact on risk levels in the region is not assessed. Studies of national and international experience of development and the use of economic instruments to prevent natural and technological hazards, show that there are
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Table 1. Economic mechanisms for technological emergency management Type of mechanism
Characteristics of the mechanism
1
Economic responsibility
Fines for exceeding allowable levels of risks (quotas) or payments for the levels of risk
2
Environmental fund and mechanism for budget funding
Direct funding of activities to reduce risks from state budget or environmental or other funds. As a rule they are mechanisms of fund distribution according to priorities. Some cases when enterprises are not able to cover the expenditure to reduce the level of technological risk are envisaged
3
Mechanism to establish the reserve of financial, labour and material resources
Establishment and use of the reserves of material resources to cover the consequences of the emergency (that is, reserves of the state, local authorities, organizations and enterprises). Volumes of reserves are established by taking into account a prognosis of the type and scale of emergency, and the scope of work to cover its potential consequences
4
Mechanism for stimulating an increase in the level of safety (preferential taxation, credits)
Preferential credits or preferential taxation if environmentally safe technologies are used. Stimuli are created if the level of taxes depends on the level of risk of emergency and if it increased in case of exceeding of the norms
5
Mechanism for redistribution of the risk and a mechanism of insurance
Redistribution of losses due to an emergency between insurers, in case of significant losses when it is hard for one enterprise to compensate them
different economic mechanisms for emergency management (Table 1). They include first of all: •
•
•
State standards: the main goal of these is to identify norms to prevent emergencies and to avoid losses. Here different types of standards (all-state or per branch of industry) can be used as well as construction norms and rules (Fig. 1). Safety standards are based on the norms of an allowable level of risk for people and the environment; the level of possibility for losing unique natural features; prohibition on living in dangerous zones and prohibition of dangerous works and activities in the region; temporary limitation or stopping of operations of potentially hazardous enterprises; ensuring population safety in case of emergency; economic sanctions towards industrial activities in case of emergencies and improper operations; preparation and further training of staff. Regulation: power to develop and approve safety norms, rules and requirements. The regulation includes technological criteria and norms for pollution to ensure environmental safety by main factors as well as requirements concerning obtaining licences for all types of activities using hazardous technologies; Safety management for potentially hazardous enterprises: includes the issuing of permits (licensing) for production activities; the establishment of requirements and limits, frameworks and conditions of operation for such enterprises (by regulation); state control on compliance with requirements and conditions stated in the licenses of the hazardous enterprises.
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State Regulation of standards to prevent emergencies
Listing of industrial standards identifying the level of technological safety
Taking into account the requirements of foreign countries for safety of production – it is important during license issuing for construction of new enterprises and further development of existing ones
Complex programme of standardistion and increase of technological safety (especially for potentially hazardous enterprises)
Figure 1. Directions of state regulation of standards.
Table 2. Functions of Insurance Function of insurance
Characteristics of the function of insurance
Risk compensation
Compensation by money to affected bodies and citizens. Possibility to finance by legal entities for potential losses by means of establishment of their own funds in the form of insurance companies. The Ministry of Emergencies is the main coordinator in the field of risk insurance services for all enterprises.
Prevention
Introduction of obligatory insurance for responsibility by owners of especially dangerous objects for losses caused, as well as property insurance of such enterprises using special conditions
Savings
Related to income, because enterprises can use additionally earned money for activities to prevent emergency
Control
Right of the founder of the insurance fund to control use of the money according to the goals.
From an institutional point of view in the field of emergency prevention there are the following means of regulations: • • • •
ecological requirements for several types of economic activities (industrial production, agriculture, land reclamation, energy sector, construction, military sector); requirements to protect and restore the environment (protection of air, water, flora and fauna, soils from pollution); listing of potentially dangerous enterprises and hazardous activities, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine; insurance, with efficiency based on quality of preparation of external data about the sources of danger, quality of assessment and risk analysis and, most of all, methods and mechanisms of risk management for potential hazardous enterprises (Table 2).
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Development of insurance of material interests of enterprises and citizens is an integral element of economic reforms, aimed at forming a socially oriented market economy in Ukraine. Besides the fact that insurance reduces the load on the expenditure part of the budget, and reduces losses in case of emergencies, it plays two more important functions: 1.
2.
Insurance allows successful solutions for the issue of social provision, as far as it is the element of social system of the state. Each one has a right to get income, not only in form of state aid but also as insurance; Insurance is the mechanism of investment in the economy. In developed countries, insurance due to its peculiarities and functions in the society belongs to a strategic sector of economy.
One of the important means of overcoming financial difficulties is to introduce state privileges for the companies in this field. For potentially hazardous operating enterprises, there is the system of discounts from this sum of insurance for protective measures. Foreign experience shows that such discounts due to savings for insurance premiums pay off such measures over 6 years, reducing the possibility of danger to a minimum [3]. So it brings profit for the enterprise as well as for the insurer. If to stimulate activities of insurance companies in the field of potentially dangerous bodies, significant savings can be made which can be used to cover losses from technological emergencies, so as a result the general level of social safety is increased. It is worth of mentioning that the large scale introduction of insurance of potentially hazardous enterprises in Ukraine is mostly a task for the future. At the same time, such economic mechanisms cannot work without proper legislation. It is important to study the impact of a system of such mechanisms at the level of technological and environmental safety in the region. To increase it, the country should activate a system of ecological certification. Further, it is important to develop it together with the licensing of potentially hazardous enterprises, ecological audits, and obligatory insurance. Emergency management should cover all problems related to emergencies, including the stages of their prognosis, prevention and preparation for operation in case of emergencies, as well as elimination of their consequences. Special means of direct emergency management should be considered from the point of view of the operational regimes for the management system: − − −
everyday activities (stationary functioning); increased readiness (active preparation and implementation of preventative activities); post-emergency – elimination of consequences of emergency.
For the first regime, namely “everyday activities”, it is typical not to have information about the clear threats of emergencies. Management systems start to react in an emergency by adopting emergency and radical activities. In case of emergencies the following actions are taken: • •
identification of the situation, preparation of the necessary maps, study of the causes of emergencies, and safety ensuring; prognosis of emergency development, modelling the dynamics of its development and assessment of the resources (materials, financial, labour etc.) for its elimination, and assessment of the need to evacuate the population;
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• •
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development and analysis of the strategies to liquidate an emergency and its consequences, split of the area into zones and assignment of the staff for each zone, identification of the necessary operative brigades and their composition, distribution of the brigades, organization of the patrol, and evacuation; planning and operational management of the works organisations by identified directions, identification of the priority works, assignment of those responsible for their implementation, and distribution of the limited resources; rescuing people, emergency construction works and other urgent works by such directions: reconnaissance, identification of victims, provision of urgent medical aid, conduct fire extinguishing, chemical and other activities, organisation of accommodation and temporary infrastructure, organisation of consumer services, means of transport etc.
The following procedures of emergency management are used most recently: environmental impact assessment, plan of liquidation of emergencies, safety standards in case of emergencies (state standard ДСТУ 3891-99 “Safety in Case of emergencies. Terms and Definitions of the Main Notions”, state standard ДСТУ 3900-99 “Safety in Case of Emergencies, Main Notions” state standard ДСТУ 3970-2000 “Safety in case of Emergencies. Emergencies on areas of water. Terms and Notions”). Generally speaking, environmental impact assessment (EIA) includes assessment of possible consequences of any types of activities on the environment. Practice shows that the standard procedure of EIA is expertise of large enterprises, using approved “Methodology of Ecological and Economical Assessment of the Projects”, developed by the Council of Productive Forces of Ukraine. Public evaluation of the project is an important part of EIA. Therefore, the process of EIA becomes a procedure for seeking a compromise, where the actors are the entrepreneur (initiator of the project), the investor (if a bank gives credit), the project implementer, the local administration, and population. Practice shows the increased role of ecological expertise in projects for the construction and operation of enterprises. Here the expertise is done in case of large enterprises from the point of view of emergency prevention and possible ways of their operation. Namely, such decisions and projects can include plans to reconstruct branches of the economy, projects for utilisation and processing of radioactive and toxic waste, programmes for the reliable function of basic assets of industry and construction, and environmental protection in the case of emergency for pipe transport. Therefore, the growth of exploitation of natural resources in industry and lack of funding, together with an increase in the share of outdated technologies and equipment, increase the risk of technological catastrophes. Due to this, there is a need to develop directions to improve the system for managing the protection of the population and the environment in the region. It is important to study economic mechanisms for emergency management (such as economic responsibility, funds and mechanism of budget funding, reserves of resources, stimulating increases in the level of safety, redistribution of risk and insurance, and situational management), especially for the regions with a large industrial potential. Assessment of the risks of technological and natural emergencies includes first of all cause-effect analysis, identification of the time of their activation and the amount of resultant losses. In order to implement these tasks, scientific analysis of economic, socio-economic and demographic factors, defining social development and their inter-
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relations, is conducted. In this case the criteria are GDP, quality of life of people, life expectancy (or losses in terms of life duration). Social protection of the population from the consequences of emergencies covers many issues at all management levels. The mechanism for this protection is integrated and dynamic, and it should take into account scales of consequences of the emergency, the material state of the affected population and other components.
4. Licensing and Regulation The law of Ukraine “on licensing of some types of economic activities” defines types of economic activities which should be licensed, establishes the state control in the field of licensing, responsibility of management agents and licensing bodies for violation of legislation in the field of licensing. A licence is a state document giving the right to the licence holder to conduct the type of economic activity mentioned in the licence during the stated period in case of compliance with licensing conditions, A licence is the only permit-type of document which gives the right to do a specific type of economic activity, which should be limited according the legislation. The licensing authority is the executive authority, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine or specially authorized executive authority of Rada for licensing of some types of economic activity. The main principles of state policy in the field of licensing is ensuring; the equity of rights, legal interests of all management agents; protection of rights, legal interests, life and health of the population; environmental protection and state safety; introduction of the common order of licensing of economic activity of the territory of Ukraine; establishment of the general list of the types of economic activities, which should be licensed. Licensing cannot be used to limit competition in the field of economics. The agents of the state policy in the field of licensing are the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, specially authorized body for licensing, executive authorities, appointed by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, empowered to license some types of economic activities. Licence conditions form a legal act, where qualification, organizational, technological and other requirements on how to conduct a type of economic activity are stated. The management agent should organize his activity, if it should be licensed, according to the established conditions for this type of activity licence. Licence conditions for types of economic activity, where special knowledge is needed, include qualification requirements to staff – legal entities and (or) people – private entrepreneurs. In cases where special requirements for premises, equipment and other technical means are needed to conduct this type of economic activity, such requirements are included in the licensing conditions. Licence conditions and changes to licence conditions should be made public in an order, which is established by the law, and they come into force 10 days after the date of state registration of the law, unless it includes a later date. In order to get the licence, the management agent who plans to conduct some type of economic activity that needs to be licensed, should appeal personally, or via authorized organization or person, to the relevant licensing body with a statement written in
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accord with the provided sample concerning the issuing of a licence. In the statement for issuance of a licence the following data should be mentioned: 1. 2. 3. 4.
information about the management agent; title, location, bank information, ID code – for legal entity; surname, name, passport data (passport number, who and when issued, place of living), ID of tax payer and other payments – for physical agent; type of economic activity (fully or partly) for which the applicant wants to get license.
If the applicant has branches, or other separate sub-divisions, which will arrange economic activity on the basis of obtained license, he should mention their location in the statement. Out of all types of economic activity which should be licensed, only operations in the field of hazardous waste treatment are environmentally dangerous. The company which has such types of waste should have a separate licence for each type of waste. The applicant should attach a copy of the state registration of the entrepreneur or a copy of the document about inclusion in the General state register of enterprises and organisations of Ukraine, certified by notary or the body which issued the original document. The licensing authority decides whether or not to issue the licence with terms, not more than 10 working days after the date of the statement about issuing of the licence and documents, attached to the statement, that is if another term of licence issuance for some types of activities is not envisaged by a special law regulating relations in some fuels of economic management. Notification about the decision concerning the licence is issued to the applicant in written form within 3 working days of the date of the relevant decision-making. In the case of a negative decision, the reasons for this should be stated. For the types of economic activities related to use of limited resources, in order to use those limited resources effectively and to promote the use of modern technologies and equipment, open competition between applicants is conducted and license is issued based only on results of the competition. Licensing authorities in Ukraine use standard licences based on a template approved by the Cabinet of Ministers. The licence templates are strictly reported and have a serial number. A licence includes: • • • • • • • • •
title of the licensing authority issuing the licence; type of economic activity for which the licence is issued; title of legal entity, surname and name of the person/individual entrepreneur; ID code of legal entity or ID of the person – tax payer; location of the legal entity or place of residence of the person/ individual entrepreneur; date of licence issue and number of the decision about the issuance of the license; duration of the licence; position, surname and initials of the person, who signed the licence; date of issuance of the license.
The licence is signed by the head of the licensing authority or his deputy and certified by the stamp of this authority.
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The applicant should pay the amount of one untaxed minimum income of a citizen for the issuance of the copy of licence. This money goes to the state budget of Ukraine. The specially authorized authority for licensing keeps a General Licensing Register, containing the data of licence registers and ID of licensing authorities. Information in General Licensing Register and licensing registers is open. One has to pay for their use, and the money goes to the state budget of Ukraine. Management agents, who act without licence, must pay fines in amounts stated by law. The fines go to the state budget of Ukraine. A decision about fines is taken by the authority which, according to the current legislation, should control the presence of licence.
5. Ecological Audit, Ecological Programmes and Insurance Ecological audit in Ukraine is a type of scientific and practical activity of specially authorized state authorities, ecological expert organizations and public groups, based on inter-institutional ecological study, analysis and assessment of future and existing enterprises, implementation of which can negatively affect the state of environment. It is aimed to prepare a conclusion on whether planned or conducted activities conform to norms and the requirements of environmental legislation, rational use and restoration of natural resources, thus ensuring ecological safety. According to the Article 4 of Law of Ukraine “On Ecological expertise” from 09.02.95, the goal of environmental expertise is to prevent negative impacts from human activities on the state of the environment and people’s health, as well as assessment of the level of ecological safety for economic activity and the ecological situation at some areas. Ecological programmes are developed in order to organise and co-ordinate activities to protect the environment, provide ecological safety, and rational use and restoration of natural resources. The examples of ecological programmes include the Programme of Establishment of a national ecological network of Ukraine in 2000–2015, approved by the Law of Ukraine on 21.09.00; Programme of prevention and reaction to technological and natural emergencies for 2000–2005, approved by the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on 22.08.00; All-state programme of toxic waste treatment, approved by the Law of Ukraine on 14.09.00; Programme of search and sterilization of remaining chemical weapons sunk in the marine economic zone of Ukraine for 1997–2002, approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on 25.11.96. It is worth of mentioning that the total negative impact of technological emergencies and catastrophes in Ukraine at present is clearly growing. This can be explained first of all by the active growth in the volumes of production, unclear economic instrument of state regulation in the field of prevention and elimination of negative technological impacts on environment and the absence of market insurance ecological services. One of the ways to solve the above-mentioned problem is to introduce environmental insurance. This is the component of a financial mechanism that is aimed at compensating damage done to the lives and health of people, as well as losses to the property of a legal entity exclusively on a market basis using private capital. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine developed the draft law of Ukraine “On Ecological insur-
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ance”. This draft regulates relations in the field of ecological insurance and is aimed at compensating for damage done to people and legal entities due to emergency pollution of environment. Ecological insurance will become obligatory. Activities of enterprises, institutional bodies and organizations, which can be environmentally hazardous and are related to emergency pollution of environment, should be insured.
6. Public Participation in the Resolution of Environmental Problems Public participation in environmental decision-making is required for realising citizens’ rights for participation in state governance, stated in Article 38 of Ukrainian Constitution and for protecting against unlimited power of authorities and for avoiding their abuse of the ecological and attached rights of the population. National legislation of Ukraine envisages functions of environmental management by citizens and their unions. In many cases it regulates public participation in the process of environmental management in a manner wider than it is required by international norms, namely, Article 9 of the law of Ukraine “On Environmental Protection” which states the ecological rights of Ukrainian citizens. Chapter IV of this law “Competence of the Environmental Authorities” has Article 21 “Competence of public organizations in the field of environmental protection”, where the rights of public environmental organizations are described. On the basis of the analysis of legislation concerning public participation in environmental decision-making, one can identify several types of public participation: • • • •
Influence on the formation of ecological policy at different levels and participation in decision-making; Public environmental monitoring; Initiation and implementation of ecological audit; Implementation of public ecological control.
Partly these rights are envisaged directly in environmental legislation, partly in other legal acts and it is a form of implementation of the general rights of citizens. Ecological rights of citizens are protected by control over the state of environment. State control is done by local radas and their executive bodies, Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine, their bodies and other specially authorized state authorities. Public control is done by public inspections according to Regulations on public environmental inspectors, approved by the decree of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of Ukraine on 27.02.02, according to which public control in the field of environment is done by public environmental inspectors. Authorities, belonging to the Ministry of Environment organize and co-ordinate activities of public inspectors. Modern practice shows that solving environmental problems at the local level by means of mobilization of public sources is the most effective instrument for improving the ecological situation in general. At the same time, public representatives are often not environmental specialists, so a lot of different factors can influence their position. Such situations should be solved by legislation. State officials, due to objective factors, have often limited capacities to react in time on any violation of environmental legislation. Citizens can fully compensate for
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this when either at work or during holidays they find out any violation of environmental legislation, namely sources of pollution or their consequences (such as oil spots or garbage), illegal actions of some people (such as the unauthorized use of nature or violation of the rules of behaviour in nature). As a rule, this is done by making observations concerning the state of environment as well as by some indicator of flora and fauna. Public ecological monitoring can be also organised. In the U.S. there is a movement of so-called “river pedestrians”, namely, people who voluntarily walk along rivers and streams in order to identify any companies discharging wastewater into rivers. They have helped to identify all company-pollutants and to react to this from the point of view of the state authorities. Similar activities are done by NGOs in Ukraine. The main use of such information is to transfer it to environmental authorities to conduct actions to stop violations of environmental legislation. The law of Ukraine “On Ecological Expertise” (or audit) (Articles 10 and 11) states that ecological audit client should inform, via the media, about conducting ecological audits in a special Statement about the ecological consequences of activities of enterprises, which can possibly have a negative impact on the environment in case of construction or operation. After completion of the ecological audit, environmental expert bodies publish their conclusions via the media. In order to take into account of public opinion, bodies of ecological audits conduct public hearings or open meetings. Public participation in the process of ecological audits can be carried out by means of presentations for media, written comments, proposals and recommendations, inclusion of NGOs representatives into the expert commissions and groups to conduct ecological audits. Preparation of conclusions of ecological audits and decision-making concerning further implementation (use, operation etc.) of the object of the ecological audit is done taking into account public opinion. At the same time, it is worth mentioning that time places new requirements on the role of ecological audit as a function of ecological management. Especially the law “On Ecological Expertise” states terms of implementation of state ecological audit, particularly the right to get the information needed for implementing ecological expertise, on request. Experts of public ecological audits dos not have such rights but according to “On Ecological Expertise” (article 29) he has all the obligations of an expert to conduct ecological audits. They include the obligation to provide complex, objective, good quality and effective implementation of ecological audits, which is impossible if there are none of the needed materials Unfortunately, there are no financial means in Ukraine to stimulate people whose activity helped to stop ecological violations, to prosecute the guilty and provide damage compensation due to breaches of the law. Activating a public ecological movement caused some changes in citizen’s attitude and authorities to environmental problems. So citizens and their unions more actively become agents of ecological management and, most often, ecological audits concern environmental aspects of economic activities, because such activities can cause negative impacts on the environment. In conditions of democratisation and ‘ecologisation’ of social processes, the public gets more and more possibilities to participate in ecological management and actively realises them, both alone and in partnership with state environmental and industrial authorities. Of course, this effective direction of public activities should have relevant legal background.
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7. Conclusions The present structure of the Ukrainian economy is such that it constantly leads to pollution of the environment. According to the adopted classification, the majority of Ukrainian regions are considered as zones of ecological disaster. The urgent problem is to decrease negative impacts on the environment, first of all from the chemical and oil industry. In order to solve it effectively, it is important to conduct environmental and ecological assessments of their impacts, which should take into account the damage done by operators’ activities. Analysis of the methodology and methodological approaches to the assessment of the impacts of the chemical and oil industries on the environment show that they do not reflect properly the modern state because environmental problems worsen in relation to the transition in the economy and the consequences of Chornobyl catastrophe. Of course, they should be improved, taking into account the present situation. The introduction of an improved methodology for research, taking into account structural changes due to market transformations in industry, will show significant changes in the dynamics of the development and regional location of environmentally hazardous industries. The main fact is that during 1990–2007 the structure of industrial production has been changed and the share of oil-energy and natural resources increased correspondingly from 3.4% to 22.8% and from 13.3% to 21.3% in Kyiv, and from 10.2% to 31.7% and from 24.7% till 35% in the Kyiv region (in Ukraine the increases are from 8.9% to 28% and from 23.3% to 34.3%). In the strategy for reforming, the economy and ecology should be considered in close interaction. So while solving problems of environmental protection, one should more often use relevant market relations with economic and legal instruments as well as administrative ones, such as ecological certification, audits, licensing, tax on products that pollute the environment in one of the periods of their life cycles, market permits, ecological insurance, subsidies etc. The use of such instruments will significantly stimulate a decrease in environmental damage, the use of new environmentally-clean technologies and the production of environmentally clean production. So it stimulates innovative processes of development in the field of the chemical industry. The system of environmental and legal relations should be oriented towards international standards as much as possible, especially the system of ecological management and audit of industrial activities. The introduction of this system will take Ukraine closer to world standards of ecological safety, which is one the main factors for further development in the world community.
References [1] ЗУ “Про ліцензування певних видів господарської діяльності” N 1775-III від 1 червня 2000 року м. Київ (1775-14). [2] Постанова Кабінету Міністрів України “Про затвердження Порядку формування, ведення і користування відомостями ліцензійного реєстру та подання їх до Єдиного ліцензійного реєстру” від 8 листопада 2000 р. N 1658 м.Київ. [3] Выморкова Н. Возможности решения экологических проблем в странах содружества // Экономист. – 2001. – № 4. – С. 78-81. [4] Дорогунцов С., Федорищева А. Государственное регулирование техногенно-екологической безопасности в регионах Украины // Экономика Украины. – 2002. – № 4. – С. 70-77. [5] Ларионов Г. А. Общественный экологический контроль // Государство и право. – 1996. – № 2. – С. 65.
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[6] Екологічні права громадян: як їх захистити за допомогою закону / Благод. фонд “ЕкоправоЛьвів”: Центр громадської екологічної адвокатури “Правнича ініціатива” для центр. та схід. Європи; Регіон. екол. центр для центр. та схід. Європи. – К.: Інформ. агентство “Эхо-Восток”, 1997. – с. 14. [7] Участие общественности в правовом регулировании воздействия на окружающую среду / Вильям Фатрел, Гровер Рен, Ан Пауерз и др.: пер. с англ. – Вашингтон: Ин-т законодательства окружающей среды, 1991. – с. 18.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-261
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Man-Made Disaster Prevention: The Role of Risk Assessment in Development Control D.L. BARRY, BE, FICE, MCIWM Director, DLB Environmental, Surrey UK [email protected]
Abstract. The risks to human and the environment from natural hazards and manmade sources of pollution can be minimised by effective land-use planning controls that takes due account of hazards sources and their links with potential receptors. These controls can be facilitated in the first instance by the use of vulnerability maps that relate to different environmental, social or physical aspects. The effective use of risk assessment techniques is a logical part of the development control process. Keywords. Risk assessment; vulnerability maps; development control
Introduction Controlling the creation of new development areas and features, whether they are for residential, commercial or infrastructural purposes, can help mitigate the potentially significant consequences from placing such developments too close to either natural and man-made hazard sources. While history cannot be changed in terms of the proximity of, for example, existing population centres and facilities to earthquake, mining or natural flooding zones, the use of basic risk assessment processes in land-use planning can help reduce the relevant risks to future development areas. These controls are becoming even more important in developing countries where there can be significant on-going changes in terms of the types of industries being developed, and in the range of new facilities for meeting increased socio-economic needs. These changes can, in many cases, also result in greater pressure to recycle old industrial sites and/or greatly expand urban zones. Some of these changes can exacerbate old problems and/or create new ones and, therefore, the resultant changes need to be managed effectively so that future potential disasters can be avoided, or at least minimised. Controls on new development should be applied in a positive way from national level down to local levels, depending on the strategic importance of the particular type of development. However, it can be difficult to create an integrated control process that properly recognises the balance that should be drawn between national and local needs in terms of environmental, social and economic factors. On the other hand, the increasing and effective use of environmental impact assessment techniques (which techniques embody the essential spirit of risk assessments) can enable the relevant
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regulators to minimise future risks by ensuring a sound understanding of the relevant hazards and the potential links with potentially sensitive receptors.
1. Historical Risks In addition to the well-established risks associated with many natural disaster sources (such as earthquakes, landslides or floods), there can also be other significant risks from former (and existing) industrial areas. Typical polluting industries, where the extent of consequential ground and groundwater contamination can often extend well beyond the property boundaries include: • • • • • •
Old military areas; Chemical/petrochemical plants; Metallurgical industries; Oil manufacturing industries; Waste disposal sites; and Mining facilities.
On the other hand, critically contaminating industries are not always large since some relatively small facilities can have a disproportionate polluting effects; for example, dry cleaning workshops and fuel service areas/garages in urban areas; and domestic fuel tanks in the countryside where they can overlie critical groundwater supplies. A particular additional risk concerns landfill gas generated from, for example, old municipal waste sites, the critical effects of which can be quite extensive spatially and can exist for many decades after waste disposal operations have ceased. Landfill gas, which principally comprises methane and carbon dioxide, differs in many ways from ‘normal’ ground contamination because of the following characteristics in particular: • • • • •
Acute risks of explosions; Omni-directional migration potential; Airborne, ground-borne and water-borne pathways; High perceived risk levels (usually >> actual risk level). Greater dynamics in on-going risk levels, temporal and spatial.
Thus, as with mines gas, landfill gas can migrate considerable distances from a source, aided by a back-pressure at source or high ground permeability, as well as atmospheric pressure variations. The gas can also be carried in groundwater in the dissolved phase and be released a result of reduced atmospheric pressure.
2. Hazard and Risk Assessments There is frequent confusion between ‘hazards’ and ‘risks’, even among professionals. In contrast, there is usually little or no confusion about the definition of a hazard. However, a common definition of risk is that it is a combination of: (i) the probability, or frequency, of occurrence of a defined hazard (e.g. exposure or instability); and (ii) the magnitude of the consequences to a specified ‘receptor’.
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Figure 1. Typical Conceptual site Model.
Therefore, when we say “It’s a risk” we mean (or should mean) that “Something specific could happen” such as a certain intensity of earthquake. In order to assess any risk it is first essential to understand: (i) the hazard and its characteristics; (ii) the sensitivity (or vulnerability) of the actual or potential ‘receptor’ or ‘target’; and (iii) the potential linkages between the hazard and receptor. Thus, a risk cannot be managed cost-effectively unless it is understood sufficiently. A preliminary risk assessment process usually has the following elements: − − − −
a desk study (including a review of existing information and data, and a site visit); development of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) showing potential ‘pollutant linkages’ (see Fig. 1); making qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment of risks for particular scenarios; and defining further information and data needs for enhancing the assessment process.
Figure 2 shows the typical elements that feature in a Conceptual Risk Model. A CSM is a simple model that places (a) known (or potential) hazards in (b) generalised physical contexts that show (c) actual or potential links with any type of ‘recep-
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Toxic Explosive Corrosive
Source
Air Water Soil
Humans Buildings Agriculture
Earthquake Flood Landslide
Pathway
River Mining feature Geology
Receptor
Water bodies Ecosystems Materials
Figure 2. Conceptual Risk Model – Typical Elements.
tor’, such as humans, water bodies, ecosystems, buildings, infrastructure, or land, for example. The key to managing the identified risks is to break the ‘linkages’ by one of the following: − − − −
modify/remove the Source (e.g. make it non- hazardous or less hazardous); or modify/break the Pathway (e.g. create a ‘barrier’ – physical or chemical); or modify/replace the Receptor (e.g. select a less sensitive use or location); or any combination of above elements.
3. New Development Areas In controlling the location of new vulnerable developments, such as residential property, then it is essential to consider the potential effects of not just the major natural disaster sources but also the man-made ones mentioned earlier, i.e. ground and groundwater contaminated by industrial usage which can have significant health and other effects on new development users and features. Indeed, those potential effects can sometimes be dominated more by the public’s perception of risk scales rather than by the levels of actual risk. This is because residents can be particularly fearful of health effects on, for example, children playing outside the dwelling, or the growing of vegetables for domestic consumption. Such perceptions are usually much lower in the case of less sensitive developments, such as commercial buildings or apartment blocks, where there can be a negligible association between the soil quality and human interactions. In any case, these risk perceptions by the public can lead to ‘economic disasters’ if the value of their property is compromised such that they can no longer live in it, cannot sell it, or they may even have inherited some liability to remediate the conditions. Similar perceptions can also be created when sensitive developments are in close proximity to explicitly polluting sources such as municipal landfill sites which, as outlined earlier, can continue to generate hazardous gases for many decades after completion of the waste disposal activities. Sterile development zones might well be created
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Figure 3. Typical Vulnerability Map for Groundwater (UK).
around such pollution sources. Overall, new land development should therefore take due account of the sensitivity of development type and its features, being particularly aware of the importance of investment security (e.g. land values), as well as the perceived effects of any post-construction remediation works.
4. Vulnerability Maps and Land-Use Zoning A key technique for helping prevent potential disasters would be the creation of ‘Vulnerability maps’; these would be analogous to maps of earthquake, landslip and flooding zones, for example. Indeed, key elements of such maps may already exist in many countries where vulnerable hydrogeological regimes have been identified (see Fig. 3). A more basic map would relate to the vulnerability of surface water bodies since this is usually more easily defined because of the topographic data and fact that the pollution dynamics are essentially two-dimensional. In contrast, groundwater dynamics are
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three-dimensional and actual risks can be dominated by the permeability of superficial layers. Vulnerability maps are also relevant to defining existing risks from either operational or closed facilities/industries, whether waste disposal sites or industries that have/had a high pollution migration potential, for example. In some cases, the critical pollution might not yet be manifest in terms of water quality, but when it becomes manifest it could constitute a pollution disaster. Thus, while it might be too late to prevent the worst effects, there might still be an opportunity for applying some mitigation, not least of which could be the removal or treatment of the primary polluting source. In all cases vulnerability maps should be seen as giving preliminary indications of risks only; actual risks should be calculated for specific scenarios and features. Thus, the maps would represent ‘early warnings’ at a strategic development planning level and would need to be supplemented with more detailed factors, including technical and economic ones. Such development planning controls are probably best addressed at the local level rather than at a national level because there can be greater familiarity with local vulnerability factors with respect to either the proposed development or the relevant natural resources, or both. The local regulating authority can, based on an effective understanding of these local sensitivities require the site developer to carry out appropriate risk assessments. These will then enable the developer to include essential safeguards in the facility design, thereby reducing the potential for future disasters. This is not a novel approach, but it is sometimes wrongly considered to be relevant only for major potentially-polluting industries where there is a more obvious need for close evaluation of environmental risks. With increased knowledge of all the relevant environmental, social and economic factors, local regulators can begin to generate effective land-use maps that help the more appropriate siting of future installations and so reduce the risks from and to future land uses. In generating such types of general development control it is vital that all concerned, not least the regulators, fully understand the profound distinction that must always be made between ‘hazard’ and ‘risk’. All too often these terms are confused and so imply that it is the hazard that must be managed. In many cases this is not possible (especially with natural hazards) and so the emphasis should be placed on risk management, which will include management of the hazard where possible.
5. Concluding Comments The management of risks through the land-use planning process should occur at the strategic level and requires active liaison between the key regulators, whether at the planning level or the pollution control level. Risk assessment tools can play a crucial role but they are simply tools to aid decision-making and must be used intelligently. The concept of ‘zero risk’ is generally unaffordable and not usually sustainable and so compromises are necessary, involving technical, environmental, practical, economic and political factors. In all events, it is essential that information on risks is communicated effectively to all interested parties, whether professional or community representatives.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-267
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International Cooperation for Emergency Warning and Prevention of Catastrophes in Kura River Basin Kristine Sahakyan JINJ Ltd., Armenia:National expert of project “Development of the trans-boundary cooperation for hazard prevention in the Kura river basin” Tel: (+374 10) 54 01 02 (off.) E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. This paper is devoted to the activities of the regional project on “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed” implemented in 2003-2006. The project was funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety. South Caucasus countries Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan participated in the project. The main goal of the project was the development of international cooperation and exchange of international experience aimed at protection of water basins against industrial pollution and increasing industrial safety in the Kura river basin. Prior to the implementation of this project in South Caucasus, similar projects have been implemented for 3 international major transboundary rivers - the rivers Rhine, Danube and Elba, for which International Commissions for protection have been established. With the help of the checklists developed by them (covering organizational and technical measures related to industrial safety) pilot investigations were carried out in the industrial enterprises with high potential hazards to water bodies and corresponding recommendations were provided. As a result of the project an international warning and alarm plan was developed in the Kura River Basin Watershed, the purpose of which was providing information exchange among the countries if needed. Based upon the information and warning systems existing in the countries at the national level, the corresponding departments in the participant countries were charged with the responsibilities of the International main warning centres, based on the justifications represented on the allocation of warning and international communication centres in the Kura basin
Introduction The Kura river basin is of significant political and economic importance for the basin countries. The total area of the basin is 188,000 sq. km, of which 102,000 sq. km is the Araks river basin flowing mainly through Armenia (54%). The Kura and Araks basin mostly coincides with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Kura is also of great importance for the economy of the basin countries, and being a most vital artery of the region, it is a determining factor for ecological stability. The Kura basin protection has
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appeared at the centre of attention relating to the increasing importance of the rational use of water bodies and providing drinking water for the population.
In the process of “Environment for Europe” Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have occupied a firm place in recent years within the framework of European cooperation in the field of environmental protection. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety, having a certain input within the framework of this process, has funded the project on “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed”, using the means of Consulting support fund for CACENA countries. An expression of this support is the transfer of information and technologies. Besides, support is also rendered in the sphere of introducing European standards related to industrial safety of dangerous facilities. This project, which was implemented in 2003-2006, was based upon the necessity to develop basin cooperation between Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in the sphere of emergency warning in the Kura River basin. It promoted the transfer of Western European experience to international river basins of the countries of CACENA. Therewith, a full series of requirements for water body protection and providing water quality in surface reservoirs, was taken into account (e.g. Framework Directive on Water Policy, requirements in accordance with ecological management on EMAS).
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1. Project objectives The project supports exchange and transfer of Western European experience in transboundary river basins in Eastern Europe and is aimed at the development of international cooperation, in particular in the field of increasing ecological safety and efficient use of water bodies. The main goal of the project is the transfer of technological experience aimed at development of international cooperation in the field of protection of reservoirs against industrial pollution and increasing industrial safety in the Kura river basin in the following directions, according to the UN Convention of EEC: x0003 x0003
protection of reservoirs against the impact of industrial pollution; increasing industrial safety level emergency warning trans-boundary management.
This project differs from those in the region, since it takes into account the importance of trans-boundary impact. The project uses the experience of International Commissions for protection of the Rhine, Danube and Elba (ICRP, ICDP, and ICEP), which have developed recommendations for measures for providing safety of industrial and warehouse facilities. One example of this is the checklists developed by the FEA for evaluating the hazard potential in industrial handling of materials hazardous to water, which are a proven practical instrument for collecting, managing, and monitoring required data under the UNECE industrial convention. This instrument is recommended for approbation to South Caucasian partners and representatives of responsible authorities. The developed organizational and technical measures for industrial safety promote a gradual increase in the safety levels of industrial facilities, taking into account peculiarities of local conditions. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Reactor Safety attached a special importance to the project, which was included in National strategy of sustainable development of Federal Republic of Germany (NHS) in the part of “Global responsibility”, as well as in the report of FME to the Parliament of FRG. Besides, the project was included in the Programme of Partners projects on the implementation of ecological strategies for countries of CACENA within the framework of “Environment for Europe” process of UN European Economic Commission. The Ministries of Environment of the participant countries assigned national responsible persons for the project activities, through whom coordination of tasks, methods and possible forms of task implementation, as well as all of the planned project measures in each country, was implemented. In accordance with the nature of the tasks, specialists and agencies engaged in the project activities were determined. Representatives of different levels were engaged in the project – Ministries, various state services of the region, specialists and national coordinators, engaged for provision of quality and competent implementation of the project activities. During the
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project all of the participants were regularly and purposefully informed in accordance with their responsibility level in the implementation of activities.
2. Main project activities The following six main activities were carried out during 2003-2006 within the framework of the project. 0003 Identification of industrial plants with potential hazards to water, and their evaluation (2003 – 2004) The local experts of the participant countries carried out the collection of basic information on prevention of major accidents in the South-Caucasus countries and preliminary determination of accident-potential in industrial enterprises in the Kura river basin. Based upon the obtained data, the hazard potential of 15 industrial enterprises and 15 former industrial areas was assessed in each of the participating countries. The potential for an incident was evaluated using the WRI (water risk index) method developed in the Danube river basin watershed, which was also recommended for use by the UNECE countries. To derive the WRI, the materials hazardous to water that are permanently present at the plant were surveyed. The materials are classified by class of hazard to water bodies (http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/wgs/wgs-index.htm). 0003 Selection and Investigation of Relevant Plants with High Potential Hazards to Water (2003 - 2004) Based on the identification of the plants with potential hazards, three modelenterprises with high potential hazards were determined in each country, to investigate within the project (according to the assessment results, these enterprises were with high incident potential - WRI >=6). The model investigations were done using the “Checklists for Investigation and Evaluation of Systems with Materials Hazardous to Water” developed by the FEA . The studies in one of the selected enterprises in each country were done with the participation of an independent expert from Germany (who, according to German law, has the right of access for the expert examination of facilities with water hazardous materials). Local specialists got acquainted with the approach and method of research and two other model enterprises in each country were studied independently by the specialists of the participant-countries. In addition to international requirements, the economic and other conditions of the individual countries were given great consideration in the development of short, medium, and long-term actions, in order to be able to recommend measures that would have a sustainable effect on the region. The enterprises were from different industrial sectors: chemical, mining, textile manufacture, oil-processing, and power supply. Works were carried out in the following enterprises:
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Armenia x0003 x0003 x0003
Chemicals plant (r. Hrazdan-Araks), Chemicals plant (r. Debed-Kura), Ore mining and processing enterprise (r. Debed-Kura).
Georgia x0003 x0003 x0003
Chemicals plant (r. Kura) Railway-carriage repair works (r. Kura) Ore mining and processing enterprise (r. Mashavera– Kura) Azerbaijan
x0003 x0003 x0003
Textile mill (r. Alazani/Kura) Petroleum refinery (at Caspian Sea) Hydropower plant (r. Kura)
On the basis of the investigation results, the necessary organizational and technical measures for preventive protection of water bodies were recommended. x0003
Development of checklists for investigation and evaluation of industrial plants with substances and preparations hazardous to water (2004 – 2006) It is to be noted that as a result of the inspection works new checklists were developed for the investigation of mine tailings, as well as checklists for closing of hazardous enterprises, and confirms the cooperation and experience exchanges among analogous projects, and emphasizes the importance of such cooperation.
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A checklist for investigation of tailings is applicable for mining extraction and processing sites, if handling with waste rock or tailings is necessary, including facilities with direct impact on the tailings. The checklist was developed on the basis of BREF (Best Available Techniques Reference Document) for management of tailings and waste rock - MTWR. A checklist for control over the closing process of hazardous industrial facilities and plants, as a result of discussions with local experts, was developed in the form of two independent checklists. Such an approach was necessary for taking into account the situation in countries with economies that are in transition. The economic situation develops in a way that the plants closed for an indefinite period must be subject to conservation. According to the conditions, there should be checklists for both temporary (conservation) and permanent (liquidation) plant closings. 0003 Development of an International Warning and Alarm Plan in the Kura River Basin Watershed (IWAK), (2005 – 2006) The goal was the development of a functional, secure alarm system between Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia that would alert the environmental agencies in all three countries in case of incident-related water pollution, and provide them with critical information about the accident. International main warning centres were implemented, within the existing early warning structures, to exchange information among the countries. The main task of the International Warning and Alarm Plan is the provision of a functional system of information transfer in the Kura River Watershed
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with respect to the place, time and scale of the pollution of water resources as a result of accident. The IWAK plan was developed taking into account the practical experience of International Commissions for the Elbe, Rhine, and Danube, as well as current results from the Neman project. During the plan development, also the warning systems functioning in the Republics of South Caucasus were taken into account, along with the corresponding warning system on industrial emergencies, UNECE, as proposed in October 2004 in Budapest. Plan IWAK is considered a «living document». Its proposed actual version has been discussed within the project, modified by local experts in accordance with the regional conditions and confirmed by the project participant countries. An important component of IKWA are the alarm criteria, jointly developed and concretely defined by the project experts. The International Kura Warning and Alarm Plan (IKWA), developed by German and South Caucasus experts during the project, is workable and was tested successfully during alarm exercises. For alarm propagation, the reporting model of “Yerevan – Tbilisi – Baku – Tbilisi – Yerevan” was used, until direct “Yerevan – Baku – Yerevan” and “Baku – Yerevan – Baku” communication becomes possible. Transmission of information during test exercises showed a few deficiencies at first, the causes of which were investigated by the project team, but still confirmed the principal functional suitability of the model.
Fig. 3 Information transmission scheme According to the IWAK plan, the Kura river basin is subdivided into 3 warning areas and one International Main Warning Centre (IMWC) is functioning in each area. According to the warning plan, information is transferred by baton model, therewith, information is always transferred through communication node in Tbilisi.
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For the first communication the IMWC is responsible, in the territory of which (area of responsibility) the accident has taken place. This means that in case of emergency situation in the Kura river basin in the territory of Armenia, the information is to be transferred by the IMWC in Yerevan to the address of the IMWC in Tbilisi and from Tbilisi – to Baku. If an accident has taken place in the territory of Azerbaijan, the above-mentioned countries must be informed. Information transfer by IMWCs is carried out in accordance with the existing regional and national warning plans. Further adaptation and development of the International Warning and Alarm Plan (after project completion) will be carried out by the Expert group of the project. 0003 Implementation of International Main Warning Centres and information transfer (IHWZ), (2005-2006) Introducing International Main Warning Centres in the existing early warning systems was carried out in accordance with plan of IWAK, taking into consideration the optimal use of the existing communication base (Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi). Supplementing and improving the required technical equipping of the Centres (communication techniques) was carried out from the project funds. For implementation of plan IWAK, and introducing International Main Warning Centres, the responsible contact persons of the participant countries presented to the project management team the actual information on the existing national warning systems, as well as brief justifications and recommendations on the allocation of warning and international communication centres in the Kura basin.
1. Conclusion of expert
Water 2.
Decision
2. Decision maikng Fig 4 IMWC
The IMWCs combine various functions, which are designated as follows: x0003 Expert assessment x0003 Decision making x0003 Information transfer - international communications (Fig. 4).
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The IMWC function in Armenia is carried out by the Emergency response centre (“Crisis Management Centre“) of the Rescue Service of the Ministry for Territorial Governance of the Republic of Armenia in Yerevan. The IMWC function in Azerbaijan is carried out by Caspian Complex Environmental Monitoring Administration of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Baku. The IMWC function in Georgia is carried out by IHWZ-Centre of Monitoring and Forecasting of the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia in Tbilisi. In close cooperation with the IMWCs also other state agencies are working, for example State technical supervision, ministries of environment in the three countries, etc. Expansion and improvement of the necessary technical equipment (communications technology) for the IMWC was supported by project funds. The information paths and internal national legal prerequisites for the notification procedure were developed under consideration of the existing notification procedures in these countries, and tested with alarm exercises. The regional expert group will take over the completion of the work of the IMWC and the notification paths. 0003
Establishment of Permanent Expert Group for Emergency situations (PEGAS)
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The jointly-developed cross-border warning and alarm system is to be defined as a first step in the direction of an international river basin commission for the protection of the Kura.
3. Conclusions Above and beyond the agreed-upon project assignments, the results of the cooperation of the South Caucasus countries and the Federal Republic of Germany, a suggestion was made by the international project steering group to found a standing expert working group to protect the Kura (PEGAS), based on the working group formed within the project. The suggestion and the necessity to establish PEGAS was supported by the experts of the project “Development and introduction of measures for preventing accidents in Kura river basin”. Within the framework of analysis and evaluation of the project results, at the meeting of the International group of the project coordination, the representatives of the participant countries came to a general agreement that establishment of the standing expert group for emergency situation (PEGAS) in the Kura river basin was a fundamental necessity welcomed by them. Therewith, the project experts who will continue the initiated work and are the primary chain for future establishment of PEGAS are of special importance. The principal benefits and conclusions from the project are: x0003 Under the project, activities were implemented and specialists trained for the development of professional and international cooperation in the field of early warning system in South Caucasus. x0003 A real possibility for quality improvement of prerequisites for practical introduction of international requirements related to emergency management in the Kura river basin was created by the project. x0003 The project proved that the presence of a clear professional work plan, based on the professional experience of local responsible persons, provides efficient and tangible results which will promote sustainable development of the region. Also, the solution of problems in the field of trans-boundary river basin protection at international level has a direct impact on gradual development of mutual trust among the adjacent countries, and thus, makes a certain input in the sustainable development of the states’ economics and ecology. The carried out work confirmed once again that nature does not recognize any borders. The project results are available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/anlagen/index.html, as well as www.kura.iabg.de.
References
Final Report of project “Development of Cross-National Cooperation for Incident Planning in the Kura River Basin Watershed”
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Progress Reports www.kura.iabg.de
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/anlagen/index.htm
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Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-278
Communication Problems during an Emergency and Lessons Learned Aysen TURKMANa, Ayla UYSALb European University of Lefke, Gemikonagi Mersin 10, Turkey b Suleyman Demirel University, Department of Environmental Engineering Isparta, Turkey a
Abstract. Communication during an emergency and preparedness are very important since they can cause fatalities if not properly managed. In many countries, including Turkey, there are many examples of bad communication in emergency situations. In this study, communication problems encountered during an emergency are discussed. The harmful effects that occurred due to the miscommunication are also discussed. Keywords. Communication problems, emergency, miscommunication
Introduction A disaster is defined as a serious disruption to the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of an affected society to cope using only its own resources [1]. The extent of a disaster depends on both the intensity of the hazard event and the degree of vulnerability of the society. Every year many people are affected by natural disasters or technological accidents world-wide. More than 60,000 people are killed and material damage accounts for €69 billion a year in the last decade. While the number of geophysical disasters reported over the last decade has remained fairly steady, there has been a steep increase of hydro-meteorological disaster events (such as floods, tropical storms, and droughts) since 1996. Many scientists assume that this trend will continue and could even be reinforced as a result of global climate change. Together with increasing population pressure and changing habitation patterns in the coming 35 years, this scenario suggests that, a few years down the road, the number of people affected by natural disasters could increase massively. On top of that, some scientists suggest that climate change may cause large scale migration of populations and trigger new or exacerbate existing conflicts about scarce resources like arable land or water [2]. During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tropical cyclones, floods, drought, and other hazards have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods. They equally destroyed economic and social infrastructure and created environmental damage [3]. Economic losses have increased almost 10 times during this period. In recent years, floods in Bangladesh, Mozambique and elsewhere, volcanic eruptions in Ecuador, DRC, Indonesia and the Philippines, and
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earthquakes in Afghanistan, El Salvador, Indonesia, Peru and Turkey have created widespread social, economic and environmental destruction. The government is the dominant actor in moving towards sustainable development and disaster risk management, but also the private sector and civil society are playing an ever more active role in successful disaster risk reduction. It is being increasingly recognized that disaster risk management at the local level is a key element in any viable national strategy to reduce disaster risk [4].
1. Disaster Risk Management and its Components Due to the increasing frequency of disasters worldwide, a lot of international organizations, governments and NGOs are upgrading the priority of disaster risk management policies, and are developing techniques and tools for disaster mitigation, rehabilitation and reconstruction. According to ISDR Secretariat disaster risk management means the systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (i.e. prevention) or to limit (i.e. mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. Generally, the disaster risk management process (cycle) is composed of the following main elements [5]: x0003 Risk identification and assessment (determining and analyzing the potential, origin, characteristics and behaviour of the hazard – e.g. frequency of occurrence/magnitude of consequences); x0003 Knowledge management (information programmes and systems, public awareness policy, education and training, research in disaster reduction); x0003 Political commitment and institutional development (good governance to elevate disaster risk reduction as a policy priority, integration in development planning and sectoral policies, implementing organizational structures, legal and regulatory framework); x0003 Application of risk reduction measures (planning and implementation of structural interventions (e.g. dams, dykes) or non-structural measures like disaster legislation); x0003 Early warning (provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allow individuals exposed to a hazard, to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response); x0003 Disaster preparedness and emergency management (activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the impact of a hazard, including measures related to timely and effective warnings as well as evacuation and emergency planning); and x0003 Recovery/Reconstruction (decisions and actions taken in the post-disaster phase with a view to restoring the living conditions of the affected population) Based on the above specified components, disaster risk management includes measures before (risk analysis, prevention, preparedness), during (emergency aid) and
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after a disaster (reconstruction). Sometimes disaster risk management includes only a part of disaster management, focusing on the before of the extreme natural event.
2. Disaster Preparedness Disaster preparedness is seen as that action taken when the occurrence of a tropical cyclone, flood or storm surge threatens to become a disaster. Preparedness activities are designed to reduce social disruption and losses to existing property and are an essential component of overall disaster planning. They can serve in the absence of more permanent measures to reduce the threat to loss of life and property. The main types of disaster preparedness include [6]: x0003 forecasting and warning systems x0003 evacuation from affected areas x0003 flood fighting x0003 flood relief x0003 cyclone shelters Depending on the size of the drainage basin, the length of river and the time of concentration of floodwater in the main channel, flood forecasts and warnings may be issued well in advance of the arrival of the flood crest on large rivers. Flash floods originating on small catchments present special problems and usually require some form of forecasting based on rainfall estimates. Although the forecasts for cyclones and floods may be accurate and timely they may have little or no effects on the intended recipients if the warning system for dissemination of the forecast is inadequate. Each agency responsible for emergency operations should receive prompt forecasts and warnings of the changing circumstances so that action needed to meet the emergency can be achieved. Dissemination of forecasts requires an effective communications system based on radio broadcasts, television, newspapers, telephone and special warning systems. The evacuation of people from a potential or actual disaster area is one of the most important elements of disaster mitigation. Careful planning is necessary for the efficient evacuation and relief of flood victims. To be effective the plan should define hazardous areas and potential dangers. However, the difficulty in evacuating victims and property can be increased if escape routes cannot cope with the traffic volume, if evacuation services cannot be contacted or suitable evacuation equipment such as trucks, boats and helicopters are not available [6].
3. Problems in the Risk Communication There are many examples of emergency miscommunication in the world. These problems not only create negative human health and environmental effects, but also psychological effects on the community as explained below. Lack of credibility: Lack of credibility alters the communication process by adding distrust and acrimony. The most important factors detracting from the credibility of a risk message relate to the accuracy of the message and the legitimacy of the process by which its contents were determined, as perceived by the recipients.
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The perceived legitimacy of the process by which the contents of the message are determined depends on the following: legal standing, justification for the communication programme, access of affected parties to the decision-making process, and a fair review of conflicting claims. Perhaps the most difficult problem for credibility is a past record of deceit, misrepresentation, or coercion. When the responsible government organizations have been proven to have lied, it is not surprising that people want independent verification. Establishing and defending credibility is difficult when the message represents a departure from previous positions. In large part credibility derives from the demonstration over time of consistent competence and fairness. Both scientific incertitude and changes in policy can serve to undermine credibility to the lay public. The necessity of correcting mistaken statements or positions can undermine credibility with the public. Care must be taken to demonstrate why the interpretation of scientific or policy conclusions has changed [7]. Incomprehensible messages: For those who are not familiar with it, the technical terminology of risk assessment is very difficult to understand. Preparing messages with few data and no time: Sometimes the risk communicator must disseminate messages when there are not enough relevant data to draw satisfactory conclusions and there is no time to obtain better information. This usually occurs in the following situations: 1. An emergency requires immediate action, or 2. Events lead to requests for information prior to the completion of study or analysis. The problem is most extreme when external events take control and require action when no preparation has been made in advance of the event. For example, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission was almost totally unprepared for an accident at the time of Three Mile Island. There was no effective management structure to support emergency decision-making and time was lost in figuring out who should do what [8].
4. Bad Communication Examples There are many bad communication examples in the world and several of them are mentioned below [9]: Porto Marghera Chemical Plant, Italy An accident occurred at the Porto Marghera chemical plant on November 28, 2002 and toxic chemicals were released to the environment. The Porto Marghera plant caused a serious health risk for people exposed to its fumes and several workers have died after being exposed to carcinogenic substances produced in the chemical plant. The real mortality rate from vinyl chloride is different from the 'official' one, as asserted in a report published by an Italian magazine, Medicina Democratica, in 1994. The data on deaths from angiosarcoma (an obscure cancer of the liver tied to vinyl chloride exposure) given by public bodies and companies are not reliable. Among those who died at Montedison because of vinyl chloride, only three have been officially recognized.
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The situation at Porto Marghera is a genuine emergency, but for the past 25 years it has been dealt with only by adopting inadequate temporary measures, said Fabrizio Fabbri of Greenpeace Italy. Not even the helpful action of the Venice judges, who pointed out several environmental crimes committed by chemical companies in the area, could persuade the politicians to take concrete action [10]. Bhopal India On the night of 2/3 December 1984, a major accident occurred in Bhopal at a pesticide plant owned by the Union Carbide Corporation [11]. This accident triggered a long-term industrial crisis for the entire population of Bhopal, for government agencies in India, and for the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) [12]. The Bhopal crisis was triggered by a technological accident: 45 tons of methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas escaped from two underground storage tanks at the plant. The accident occurred between 10pm (2 December) and 1.30am (3 December) when the plant was on second shift and the surrounding population was asleep in slum 'hutments' that are densely packed together in this part of Bhopal. Leaked gases were trapped under a nocturnal temperature inversion in a shallow bubble that blanketed the city within five miles of the plant. Next morning, over 2,000 people were dead and 300,000 were injured. Another 1,500 people died in subsequent months owing to injuries caused by the accident. At least 7,000 animals perished but damage to the natural environment remains largely unassessed [13]. Emergency services were completely overwhelmed and confusion was rampant in the affected neighbourhood. Police instructed people to run away from the area, but many of those who did so inhaled large amounts of toxic MIC and succumbed to its effects. Residents were unaware that the simple act of covering their faces with wet cloths and lying indoors on the floor would provide effective protection against the gas. That night, and in the days that followed, nearly 400,000 people fled the city in a haphazard and uncontrolled evacuation. Two weeks later, during government attempts to neutralize the plant's remaining MIC, another wave of mass flight involved 200,000 people [14, 15, 16]. An important issue also raised by the Bhopal accident is the location of industrial plants. Legislation is required to ensure that dangerous sites do not exist in close proximity to heavily populated areas. All industrial plants should be built with the potential for a disaster in mind, thereby minimizing the risk to the population if a spill, fire or leak occurs. In the case of Bhopal, it appears that the dense population distribution around the plant occurred as a result of people needing to live close to work [17]. Initially, the state government tried to place all the blame squarely on UCC and sued them for damages on behalf of victims. In a largely symbolic gesture against the company, UCC's Chief Executive, Warren Anderson, was arrested on his arrival in Bhopal. The government thwarted several efforts by UCC to provide relief to victims, in an attempt to prevent the company from earning goodwill among the public. This early political management was very effective. In nationwide elections that took place four weeks after the accident, the Congress Party won both the state legislative assembly and the national parliament seats from Madhya Pradesh by wide margins [12]. Chernobyl, Ukraine
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The accident of 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located about 20 km south of the border with Belarus, was the most serious ever to have occurred in the nuclear industry. It caused the deaths, within a few days or weeks, of 30 power plant employees and firemen (including 28 with acute radiation syndrome) and brought about the evacuation, in 1986, of about 116,000 people from areas surrounding the reactor and the relocation, after 1986, of about 220,000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Vast territories of those three countries (at that time republics of the Soviet Union) were contaminated, and trace deposition of released radio-nuclides was measurable in all countries of the northern hemisphere [18]. The explosion released 400 times more radioactive material into the atmosphere than the US nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, Japan in 1945. This resulted in tons of contaminated food being consumed by millions of people. Officials, including ministers and scientists, systematically suppressed information about Turkish areas and food contaminated by the radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. A large number of babies were showing deformities, especially those born to mothers who were in their second month of pregnancy when the accident occurred. Also, many miscarriages and abnormal births had been observed. One of the places the magazine mentioned was the village of Düzce, on the western coast of the Black Sea where, in November 1986, an extremely uncommon concentration of babies numbering 10 in that year alone - were born with their brains outside their skulls. In the city of Trabzon, also near the Black Sea, the number of abnormal births has quadrupled since 1986 [19]. The Turkish Atomic Energy Agency (TAEK) knew about the contamination in the Black Sea region. But the agency did not warn people who grow tea in this region or factories processing the tea. Between May and December 1986, when tea was harvested, people were left without a warning. Contaminated tea processed and packed during this period of eight months was sold on the market. Best quality tea was sold most likely in Germany and consumed by Turkish workers living there. Turkish scientist Dr. Yuksel Atakan, who lives in Germany, published in 1990 a study showing that tea from Turkey was heavily contaminated. Results of measurements in Germany of tea bought in Turkey in June 1987 varied from dangerous levels of 6,000 to 30,000 Bq/kg. By the end of 1992, Mr. Aral confessed: 'The government has indeed hidden the facts and figures on the impact of Chernobyl in Turkey.' 'I am sorry', the former Minister of Industry and Trade, Cahit Aral, remarked recently, 'but we couldn't protect the Turkish nation.' After Chernobyl, the Turkish people were burdened with highly contaminated food [19]. The Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 The Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 was one of the strongest earthquakes ever to hit an industrialized region. The earthquake had a magnitude of Mw 7.4 and caused over 15,000 deaths and 40,000 injuries. It is estimated that 214,000 residential units and 30,500 business units either collapsed or were lightly to heavily damaged leaving more than 250,000 people homeless (USGS, 2000). The earthquake not only cost thousands of lives, but also caused direct and indirect economic losses estimated as $16 billion USD [20]. This earthquake offered a unique opportunity to study risk management practices and emergency response to accidental releases of hazardous materials triggered by
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seismic movement. While there has been some attention devoted to releases from pipeline breaks during earthquakes, there has been little consideration of earthquakerelated hazardous material releases at industrial facilities. The study results indicate that hazardous material releases are a real threat to life and property inside industrial facilities as well as to nearby residential areas. Some of the more significant examples of hazardous material releases triggered by the earthquake include: the air release of 200 metric tons of hazardous anhydrous ammonia to avoid tank over-pressurization due to loss of refrigeration capabilities; the leakage of 6,500 metric tons of toxic acrylonitrile (ACN) into air, soil and water from ruptured tanks; the spill of 50 metric tons of diesel fuel into Izmit Bay from a broken fuel loading arm; the release of 1,200 metric tons of cryogenic liquid oxygen caused by structural failure of concrete support columns in two oxygen storage tanks; and the enormous fires, liquid petroleum gas leakages, and oil spills at the TUPRAS oil refinery. Several strategies have been identified to make highly populated, industrialized cities safer and more resilient to earthquake threats. These include enforcement of regulations pertaining to seismic-resistant construction codes and other environmental and public safety laws; risk management practices and mitigation measures in industry which account for the possibility of seismic hazards; emergency management programmes in industry and government that take into account the simultaneous effects of the earthquake and possible hazardous materials releases; land use planning as a mitigation strategy to reduce the impact of joint earthquake and hazardous materials releases on urban communities; and the appropriate government structure, organization, and political context in which to effectively manage joint natural and technological emergencies [20]. Hurricane Katrina, USA Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) was the largest natural catastrophe USA has ever experienced. Although Hurricane Andrew in 1992 made land-fall with far stronger winds, the Galveston Hurricane in 1907 took more lives, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927 inundated more territory, Hurricane Katrina’s strong storm surge along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, and the failure of New Orleans’ levies, combined to devastate a populated and developed area the size of Great Britain. Hurricane Katrina also struck at a time when the nation had far greater expectations of government – and particularly of the federal government – to prepare for and then, after the storm, to assist governments and residents and businesses devastated by the storm. In addition, it struck after four years of investment in preparedness by the government. These investments included a new federal department (the Department of Homeland Security), a new Pentagon command focused on the homeland (U.S. Northern Command, Northcom), a new National Response Plan and National Incident Management System, and billions of dollars of appropriations to help federal, state, and local governments prepare for catastrophic events – albeit primarily catastrophic events caused by terrorism. Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security vividly documents the failures of this expensive investment in preparedness [21]. Government’s recognition and response to Katrina was confused, chaotic, and much too slow. President Bush admits mistakes in handling Hurricane Katrina, saying the storm exposed serious problems in the government's response capability.
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Flood Problems in Vietnam Flooding is the main form of natural disaster in Vietnam; every year floods cause enormous damage to human lives and the economy. The annual rainfall in Vietnam ranges between 1,800 and 2,500 mm and 70-80 per cent falls between July and October. Although beneficial to agriculture, rain creates havoc through flooding [22]. The monsoon winds and typhoons are the main causes of heavy rains. The floods associated with monsoon rains usually occur between July and November. Heavy rains cause flash floods in hilly areas and later inundate the deltas. Typhoons bring heavy rain to the coastal belt, sometimes as much as 800mm per day and the strong winds that accompany them create tidal waves [23]. Loss of human lives and livestock, and damage to economic activities, infrastructure and buildings, are inevitable in the aftermath of flooding. Floods affect the economic behaviour of the people as well. In flood-prone areas, farmers often grow only one crop a year compared with two or three in flood protected areas of the deltas. In areas where the salinity of the soil has been increased by sea water that comes in with tidal waves, farmers prefer to grow saline-resistant traditional rice varieties instead of high-yielding ones. Despite the scale of the economic losses, no thorough study has yet been conducted to assess the overall impact of floods on the economy of the country [22]. For accurate flood forecasting, good data collection and communication systems are essential. The communication facilities in Vietnam are very poor and worsen during floods, thus necessitating substantial improvements. Vietnam will therefore need external assistance to acquire new technology and experience to reduce the damage caused by floods [22].
5. Results and Conclusions As can be concluded from many unfortunate events, the losses from miscommunication are much bigger than gains for the companies or the government. Therefore, in order to overcome the problems of miscommunication, preparedness, honesty, coherency, transparency, consistency and being timely are major factors to be considered. Owing to the lessons learned from bad communication examples, many countries have already improved their rules and regulations on risk communication. The harmful effects can be minimized by informing the population about the hazards and required behaviour under emergency conditions in a vivid and open manner. The communication about risks is a sensitive subject and needs accurate planning. In addition to the well-balanced information contents, the analysis of the social conditions of the population in the neighbourhood has decisive importance for successful communication. Although the risk communication may create anxiety for the public by engendering some fears, still it is a very important in preventing the negative effects of an emergency. Good communication as a part of risk management is a must in democracy.
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References [1]
European Environment Agency (EEA), Multilingual Environment Glossary. http://glossary.eea.europa.eu/EEAGlossary., 2006. [2] http://www.untj.org/files/minutes/DPM/Annexes/DPM281103(12).pdf [3] http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/WSSDdocrevisedsept02.htm [4] United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (UNDP/BCPR), Reducing Disaster Risk. A Challenge for Development. A global report, New York, 2004. [5] United Nations Inter-Agency Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. United Nations, Geneva, 2004. [6] http://www.unescap.org/enrd/water_mineral/disaster/watdis4.htm [7] http://www.dphhs.mt.gov/PHSD/risk-communication/risk-comm-index.shtml [8] http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309039436/html/ [9] Küçükgül, E., Türkman, A., Uysal, A., Communication Problems During Emergency. NOSHCON 2006, International Risk Management, 45th Conference and Exhibition in Occupational Risk Management, The Lost City Convention Centre, Sun City, South Africa, 144-152, 2006. [10] http://archive.greenpeace.org/pressreleases/toxics/1999sep15.html [11] Bogard, William P., The Bhopal Tragedy: Language, Logic, and Politics in the Production of a Hazard. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, 1989. [12] http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks [13] Prasad, R., and Pandey, R.K., Methyl isocyanate (MIC) hazard to the vegetation in Bhopal, Journal of Tropical Forestry 1 (1985), 40-50. [14] Shrivastava, P. , Bhopal: Anatomy of a Crisis. 2nd edn. London: Paul Chapman, 1992. [15] Diamond, S. , The Bhopal Disaster: How it happened. New York Times, 28 January., 1985. [16] Morehouse, W., and Subramaniam, A., The Bhopal Tragedy. New York: Council on International and Public Affairs, 1988. [17] http://www.tropmed.org/rreh/vol1_10.htm [18] http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/chernobyl/chernounscear.htm [19] http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/385/3760.html [20] Steinberg, L, Cruz, A., Vardar-Sukan, F, Ersoz, Y. Assessment of Risk Management Practices at Industrial Facilities during the Turkey Earthquake of August 17, 1999, First Annual IIASA-DPRI Meeting “Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability”, IIASA, Laxemburg, Austria, 1-4 August, 2000. [21] Abbott, E. B., Review of Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 4 (2007), 1-4. [22] Wickramanayake, E., Flood Mitigation Problems in Vietnam, Disasters 18 (1994), 81-86. [23] UNDP, Report on the Economy of Vietnam. United Nations Development Programme, Ha Noi., 1990.
Optimisation of Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures in the Context of Human and Social Dynamics I. Apostol et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2009. © 2009 IOS Press. All rights reserved. doi:10.3233/978-1-58603-948-6-287
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Public Participation and Information through the Licensing Phase of Industrial Facilities to Optimize Disaster Forecasting and Prevention Measures Juliane KNAUL Legal Department, State Office for Mining, Geology and Minerals, Brandenburg, Germany
Abstract. This paper outlines the key international, EC and German laws that dictate the procedures for informing the public who is adversely affected by industrial development. The paper gives an up-date on the requirements of the relevant regulations for participation by the public and providing information to the public within the license procedure of industrial and mining projects likely to have significant adverse effects on the environment. Keywords. public participation; information; mining-related industries; legislation
Introduction The public has an interest in the licensing phase cycle of industrial facilities such as mining-related industries. This interest is based on several accidents which have happened such as some tailing dam bursts in Baia Mare, Romania or Aznalcóllar, Spain. These accidents reflect the general environmental and safety hazards of mining activities which have increased the public awareness. In consideration of this fact, public participation and information to the public through the licensing phase of industrial facilities regulated by international, EC and German national law have an essential role in optimizing disaster forecasting and prevention measures.
1. International Law UNECE Espoo-Convention on Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment of 25 February 1991. The Espoo-Convention is the first general contract of nations which requires an assessment of the trans-boundary environmental impact of certain activities at an early stage of planning. It also lays down the general obligation of States to notify and consult each other on all major projects under consideration that are likely to have a significant adverse environmental impact across boundaries.
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Mining activities are also listed in this Convention. The need to give explicit consideration to environmental factors at an early stage in the decision-making process by applying environmental impact assessment requires public participation at all appropriate administrative levels, as a necessary tool to improve the quality of information presented to decision-makers so that environmentally sound decisions can be made, paying careful attention to minimizing significant adverse impact, particularly in a trans-boundary context. UNECE Århus-Convention on Access to Information, Public, Participation in Decision-Making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters of June 1998. Contributing to the protection of the right of every person from present and future generations to live in an environment adequate to his or her health and well-being, the Århus-Convention provides for rights of access to information, public participation in decision-making and lays down the establishment of relevant international minimum standards in these regards. Aiming thereby to further accountability and transparency in decision-making and to strengthen public support for decisions on the environment, the Convention sets significant standards for protection, prevention and improvement of the state of the environment and for ensuring sustainable and environmentally sound development. This Convention promotes environmental education to further the understanding of the environment and sustainable development and encourages widespread public awareness of, and participation in, decisions affecting the environment and sustainable development. In this context, there is a need for making use of the media and of electronic or other forms of communication. In summary, the Convention serves an essential role in furthering human wellbeing and the use and enjoyment of basic human rights, including the right to life itself.
2. European Community Legislation Council Directive 85/337/EEC of 27 June 1985: assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment. Already before commencement of the above-named general contracts of nations, the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment required the involvement and participation of the public in the context of the environmental impact assessment of a large number of economic activities, including mining activities, where such activities are likely to have a significant impact on the environment by virtue of their nature, size or locationThis Directive requires an assessment of the likely environmental effects of certain activities before authorization is given. Such assessment must be reflected in an environmental report that must be taken into account by the competent authority granting authorization. Planned mitigation measures form a particular part of such assessment. An important factor in the impact assessment procedure is the involvement and participation of the public. Within the environmental impact assessment process, which
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is extensively required for mining activities, the competent authority is required to ensure that information is made available in an appropriate manner to the public. The resulting comments of the public are to be carefully considered by the competent authority. Such a participatory approach ensures transparency and early involvement of the public and helps to identify and mitigate risks for the environment and optimize disaster forecasting. The participation of the public ensures that all direct and indirect effects of a project are determined, reflected and assessed relating to such factors as humans, fauna and flora, soil, water, air, climate and the landscape, the inter-action between these factors, material assets and the cultural heritage. The Directive also implements the UNECE Espoo-Convention on trans-boundary impact assessment. In the case of a likely significant trans-boundary environmental impact from a planned industrial or mining project, the affected parties have to be notified and all relevant information on the project, including the environmental report, has to be submitted so that members of the public likely to be affected get the opportunity to comment. The results of such trans-boundary consultation have to be taken into account by the competent authority of the party that is responsible for granting authorization to the project. Council Directive 1996/61/EC of 24 September 1996; integrated pollution prevention and control. The purpose of this Directive is to achieve integrated prevention and control of pollution arising from industrial facilities with highly significant negative environmental effects that require the authorization of the facilities. Also, it lays down measures designed to prevent or, where that is not practicable, to reduce emissions to air, water and land from such industrial activities whose production capacities or outputs exceed the threshold and limit values set out in the Directive. For example, the Directive covers several energy industries such as mineral oil and gas refineries,as well as activities in waste management, like landfills that receive more than 10 tonnes per day or with a total capacity exceeding 25,000 tonnes, excluding landfills for inert waste. Thereafter, the Directive lays down requirements concerning the permitting of industrial activities. The competent authorities determine the conditions of the permit in order to achieve a high level of protection of the environment taken as a whole, without prejudice to relevant Community provisions. For the public to be aware of the operation of installations and their potential effect on the environment, and in order to ensure the transparency of the licensing process throughout the Community, the public must have access, before any decision is taken, to information relating to applications for permits for new installations or for substantial changes, and to information on the permits themselves, their updating and the relevant monitoring data. For installations with potential for pollution, and therefore trans-frontier pollution, the applications relating to such proposals, or for substantial changes, must be available to the public of the Member State likely to be affected. During the permitting procedure, the public must be able to comment on the applications for permits before the competent authority reaches its decision and the resulting comments have to be carefully considered by the competent authority.
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Directive 2006/21/EC of the European Parliament and Council of 15 March 2006: management of waste from extractive industries. For waste facilities which hold extractive waste with a substantial risk to the environment and human health such as is found in the case of tailing dams, the Directive on the management of waste from extractive industries, (which also must be consistent with the Århus-Convention) provides a separate and stringent regulating system. In accordance with the objectives of Community policy on the environment, the Directive lays down minimum requirements in order to prevent, or reduce as far as possible, any adverse effects on the environment and human health which are brought about as a result of the management of waste from the extractive industries. No waste facility must be allowed to operate without a permit granted by the competent authority. Early in the procedure for granting a permit or, at the latest, as soon as the information can reasonably be provided, the public must be informed of the application for a waste management permit. Furthermore, public participation means that the affected members of the public must be consulted prior to the granting of a waste management. The resulting public comments have to be carefully considered by the competent authority. For such waste facilities with potential for pollution, and therefore trans-frontier pollution, the applications must be available to the public of the Member State likely to be affected. Directive 2001/42/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2001: assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment. The objective of the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain industrial plans and programmes on the environment, which also implements the obligations arising under the Århus Convention, is to provide for a high level of protection for the environment. Also, it is to contribute to the integration of environmental considerations into the preparation and adoption of such plans and programmes with a view to promoting sustainable development, by ensuring that an environmental assessment is carried out regarding certain industrial and mining projects which are likely to have significant effects on the environment. For plans and programmes for which the environmental assessment obligation arises simultaneously from this Directive and from other Community legislation, such as the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment, procedures should be coordinated to avoid duplication of assessment. An environmental assessment must be carried out for plans and programmes which are likely to have significant environmental effects. Where an environmental assessment is required by this Directive, an environmental report should be prepared in which the likely significant environmental effects of implementing the project, and reasonable alternatives taking into account the objectives and the geographical scope of the plan or programme, are identified, described and evaluated. All plans and programmes including industrial and mining projects, should harmonize with other plans, particularly in their land use, to minimize environmental effects as far as possible.
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Where the implementation of a plan or programme is likely to have significant effects on the environment, the Direction lays down the requirements of public participation within the implementation of the plan or programme which are subject to preparation and/or adoption by an authority at national, regional or local level. Where the implementation of a plan or programme is likely to have significant effects on the environment in another Member State, there is also a need for trans-boundary consultations, including public participations and information. The Directive contributes to more transparent decision making to ensure a high level of environmental protection. In particular, the environmental report must be made available to the public. The environmental report and the opinions expressed by the public, as well as the results of any trans-boundary consultation, must be taken into account during the preparation of the plan or programme and before its adoption or submission to the legislative procedure. Directive 2003/35/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 May 2003: providing for public participation in respect of the drawing-up of certain plans and programmes relating to the environment. The objective of this Directive providing for public participation in the drawingup of certain plans and programmes relating to the environment is to contribute to the implementation of the obligations arising under the Århus Convention, in particular by: x0003
x0003
providing for public participation in the drawing-up of certain industrial and mining plans and programmes relating to the environment if the public participation is not already required by the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment; and improving the public participation within the permit procedures of industrial facilities regulated by the Directive concerning integrated pollution prevention and control and by the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment.
In summary, this Directive sets significant standards for protection, prevention and improvement of the state of the environment and optimization of disaster forecasting as it promotes public participation within the permit procedures of industrial and mining facilities. Directive 2003/4/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2003: public access to environmental information. This Directive increases public access to environmental information and must be consistent with the Århus-Convention. The dissemination of such information contributes to a greater awareness of environmental matters, a free exchange of views, more effective participation by the public in environmental decision-making and, eventually, to a better environment.
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It should be noted that this Directive does not address public participation within the authorization procedure of industrial facilities. But the Directive does provide, inter alia, the statutory framework for the external emergency plan and obligates the Member States to take necessary measures to ensure that, in the event of an imminent threat to human health or the environment, all information held by or for public authorities (which could enable the public likely to be affected to take measures to prevent or mitigate harm arising from the threat) is disseminated immediately and without delay. Of course, this way of public information is a kind of optimization of disaster forecasting which helps each concerned person to take his individual safety measures.
3. German Law The detailed arrangements for public participation under the above-named Directives, particularly the Directive on the assessment of the effects of certain industrial projects on the environment, must be determined by every Member State so as to enable the public concerned to prepare and participate effectively. In German law, the competent authority is required to carry out an environmental impact assessment, which is integrated into the existing licenses procedure of industrial and mining facilities. The environmental impact assessment, including the public participation, must be implemented for projects likely to have significant effects on the environment by virtue, inter alia, of their nature, size or power rating and which are likely to exceed the threshold and limit values set out in the German regulation. Before beginning the license procedure, the competent authority should prepare to identify the scope of all significant effects on the environment which the project is likely to have on humans, fauna and flora, soil, water, air, climate, the landscape and material assets. With the subsequent application for licensing, the operator must supply in an appropriate form the information he needs for carrying out the special project. This includes all planning documentation necessary, particularly an environmental impact study, which describes the likely significant effects of the proposed project, and supply details of the measures envisaged to prevent, reduce, and where possible, offset any significant adverse effects on the environment. Before a license is given, the planning documentation, including the environmental impact study, must be made available to the affected public. This requires that the local public is informed about the following layout of the documentation. Based on this, the public is able to check the documents and establish if they have any concerns about or interests in the planning of the industrial project. Furthermore, the concerned public must get the opportunity to express their opinions and objections to the project at a period of time specified by the authority which will grant the project. The transboundary participation is required in case of the environmental effects of the project across boundaries.
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Finally, the licensing authority must discuss all opinions and objections particularly those made by the public likely to be concerned by the construction and operation of the industrial and mining facility. The affected public which has expressed objections must also be informed separately about this opportunity. Within this procedure, all opinions, objections and adverse environmental effects of the project should to be substantiated. The discussion procedure serves an essential role for the final result made by the competent authority aiming thereby to further the transparency in decision-making, to strengthen public awareness for industrial and mining projects likely to have adverse effects on the environment, and to optimize disaster forecasting. Only after prior assessment of the likely significant environmental effects and of the measures necessary to prevent, reduce and, where possible, to offset these adverse effects, the licensing authority is able to grant the planned project.
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Authorities and Organizations with Security Tasks in the Federal Republic of Germany and Their Legal Basis Peter PASCALY Am Blütenhain 5a, D-48163 Münster, Germany Abstract. The Federal Republic of Germany is built of 16 federal states with police authorities of their own in addition to the Federal Police. Besides that the federation has established law providing guidelines to enable the states to enact regulations to install similar auxiliary attachments such as fire departments. As well as these government organizations there are also various and numerous NGOs. The fire brigades are mostly manned with voluntary personnel. Only major cities and big plants have professional fire-fighters. They work together with NGOs in case of a catastrophe under the control of the police authority. Through Fire Protection Demand Plans the needs of the fire brigades of all regions are focused and perform the catastrophe planning and the civil defence. Keywords. Police authorities, fire departments, catastrophe, civil defence, GOs, NGOs
Introduction The Federal Republic of Germany is built as a federal state consisting of 16 states of very different sizes. There are, on the one hand, large states such as Bavaria, Lower Saxony or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and, on the other hand, smaller states such as Saarland or the city states such as Berlin, Hamburg or Bremen, which also differ in size. This division of singular states was established at the foundation of the Federal Republic in 1949 in the Basic Constitutional Law of Germany (Constitution) but the roots of this structure can be traced back to the Middle Ages. The Basic Constitutional Law also established the separation of powers in Germany as well as the division of the responsibilities in the state structure (i.e. federalism). The Federation is, for example, responsible for foreign affairs and for defence. The states, however, are in charge of the police and cultural affairs, for example. An independent federal police force observes the federal borders (such as at airports) as well as federal-owned equipment and property (such as Deutsche Bahn AG). In order to manage and coordinate the different interests of the members of the federation, the legislation transferred a framework competence to the Federation. Therefore, the association remits laws for the jurisprudence in all areas. Implementation, as well as supervision, of the laws is the responsibility of the states. Similar regulations apply to authorities with special tasks.
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1. The Federation In principle, the regulation exists that the police authorities take over the control of measures in a catastrophe situation and provide the organization and the implementation of these measures. This control is organized in a decentralized manner but all measures for catastrophe protection have as their goal the defence against danger. The legal basis for this regulation is the federal civil-defence law which is supplemented through the different fire-protection support-accomplishment laws that each state has implemented slightly differently. These laws allow the use of steering state authorities and the activity of support-organizations such as the Red Cross, for instance. In principle, the Federation becomes active in the area of danger-defence only in the state of war. Exceptions are catastrophic events which are identified according to certain criteria. Examples for these are the cyclone Kyrill in the winter of 2007 or the Elbe flood in 2002. Catastrophe situations of such dimension can only be managed through the use of all forces available. In such a case, an inter-ministerial coordination group meets with the federal office of defence and catastrophe support under the management of the federal Department of the Interior in the common situation centre. This group can raise the alarm with the federal institution technical relief organization (THW) for federally controlled deployments within the whole country and abroad. In the THW there are more than 669 local organizations in all federal states, and 80,000 members are organized on a voluntary basis. The THW is equipped with modern appliances and is able to react in all possible damage cases, such as to water, construction/buildings, electrical systems, gas pipes, and to contain oil spills for example. Furthermore, fresh water can be supplied, emergency power and illumination installed, as well as any kind of rescue missions performed. The Federal government is able to send rapid rescue deployments for catastrophes in foreign countries with the help of the THW (for example, earthquakes in Mexico 1985 or in Iran in December 2003) or for rapid support purposes abroad in the case of disastrous interruption of the water supply, as might be found in the case of earthquakes. The situation centre is also entitled to request the armed forces to provide help in the home country in the case of a catastrophe if all other forces do not have full control of the emergency situation, especially, if the armed forces can make special appliances and teams available.
2. The State of North Rhine-Westphalia All 16 federal states have self-made regional laws regarding catastrophes and fireprotection as well as a rescue service. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for instance, it is called the law of fire protection and aid (FSHG). Besides that the state also adopted a rescue law (namely, RettG NRW). The Department of the Interior of the state and the Department of Health and Social Affairs are responsible for the implementation of these laws. Normally, the activity of the latter department is limited to control and supervision functions. The ministries in most state authorities delegate their tasks to their branches in the states, the district governments or police headquarters. These institutions, without executive power of their own, only possess coordination responsibilities in a catastrophe, and rely on the help from the government district.
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The actual support and rescue activities, and their control, are carried out by members of the local fire brigades of the counties and county-free cities. This authority of the counties and the county-free cities is also incumbent on the planning of fire and catastrophe protection, as well as the protection planning for particularly endangered features. It is this task which becomes more and more important considering the permanent threat of terrorist attacks to exposed and important targets. Such attacks are always spectacular in their effects and can only be repelled through special protection precautions. These precautions must have begun already at the planning phase of the facility, for instance, buildings. Experts are, from a very early stage, involved in fireprotection and other risks. The fire and catastrophe protection within the Federal Republic is organized by the communities which own the local fire brigade. Usually, honorary firemen serve the local fire brigades; only cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have professional firefighters. This cadre of professional fire-fighters in the cities is necessary due to the fact that a large amount of emergency missions are carried out by specialists from the fire brigade. Furthermore, it is not practical for honorary personnel to be alerted and called from their jobs for every small contingency event (for instance a traffic-endangering oil-slick on the road). The fact that catastrophe protection is organized on an honorary basis has the great advantage that a large number of fire-fighters is highly engaged without being employed by the state and for low costs, and it is also attractive to the participants. They can be trained in numerous and frequently-repeated training sessions that disseminate state-of-the-art knowledge. This training takes place in central state facilities. The professional and voluntary fire brigades – e.g. the public fire brigades – are supplemented at particularly endangered facilities, for instance chemical plants or airports, by so-called plant fire-brigades which are government controlled and recognized, and are formed from full-time and part time forces. Works’ fire brigades must fulfil both the protection requirements of their particular businesses and those of the public fire brigade in regard to education and equipment. Works’ fire brigades form the fire brigade of the community in combination with the public fire brigades (professional and voluntary fire brigades). The status of education and the cooperation between works’ fire brigades and public fire brigades is monitored by the district government’s experts regularly. The communities support the counties with the planning of catastrophe-defence tasks and with catastrophe protection itself. This includes taking part in the defenceplanning committees with their regional knowledge and know-how, as well as participating in common catastrophe-protection practices. These hands-on exercises with the special equipment are supplemented by the common training of the staff assuming a catastrophe situation, e.g. crash of an airplane in the outskirts of the community. On such occasions, neighbouring fire brigades exercise a common-danger defence under instruction from experienced experts. Furthermore, the extensive honorary basis of the fire-fighters’ organization has the advantage that many interested participants are ready to support the fire brigade work by their involvement without the fear of professional disadvantages through the cooperation with the fire brigade. This allows the Federal Republic to have 1.3 million honorary fire-fighters available in the event of a catastrophe. Since these personnel come from the whole population, they are very quickly available for an emergency, as follows:
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• • •
within 15 minutes: 300,000 people; within 30 minutes: 600,000 people; within 60 minutes: 900,000 people.
In this way the Federal Republic, with a total population of approximately 82 million, has more than 1.3 million persons in the active fire brigade service. Among these are 95.6% volunteers, and the proportion of women within the fire brigade is 9.8%. In addition, there are 255,000 forces in the youth fire brigade. The fire brigades have 25,213 fire stations which mainly comprise appliance storage buildings. The operational demands on the fire brigades are very high. Annually, they have 3.5 million deployments, 62.8% of which are by the professional fire brigade and 32.7% by the volunteers. Only 4.5% of all emergency deployments are performed by works’ fire brigades. In order to have state-of-the-art fire-fighting skills, the planning of the fire protection demand is the duty of the community in the so-called Fire Protection Demand Plan since it knows best which equipment is necessary for the required purposes. On this basis, the county/county-free cities focus the needs of the communities in their area and perform the catastrophe planning. The demand registrations of these subordinate catastrophe protectors are implemented in the demand planning by the district governments. The plans are forwarded to the responsible Department of the Interior that, again, assesses the collected demand plans and finally forms a demand plan for the entire country. This planning then forms the basis for the planning of the finance demand for the procurement of tools and the budgeting of the necessary means in the next federal budget. The normal fire cases are usually under the control of the fire brigade from the responsible community. This is also applicable to the rescue tasks with traffic accidents within the community area, unless the accident rescue is delegated to support organizations (NGOs), such as the German Red Cross or Johanniter-Unfallhilfe. In the case of a catastrophe, the county or the county-free city, in whose area the catastrophe occurred, takes over the control of the operation and of the support forces that are provided by the public fire brigades. For this, the county/county-free city has, in addition to the control centre within its service building, also got a mobile command centre available. Both are inter-connected via radio with the support forces. However, the mobile command centre can act closer to accident events. Beside this operational control, there is an emergency task force that coordinates the administration and reconciles the cooperation with the operation control (Fig. 1). In the case of a catastrophe the whole emergency task force meets, headed by a headquarter’s official. This is the mayor when the catastrophe event occurs in a city; it is the District Chief Executive if the event occurs in a county-affiliated community. The personnel of the task force vary depending on the severity of the catastrophe event. Besides administrative personnel from the corresponding county, necessary experts of various disciplines are also consulted, as are specialists of the companies involved in the event. An example for the common action in the catastrophe case is the snow catastrophe in November 2005. In that instance, large quantities of wet snow fell in North RhineWestphalia in the counties of Borken, Coesfeld and Steinfurt, and caused such a severe increase in weight of the overhead high voltage cables that they broke and caused pylons to bend. As a result, large areas of these counties in North Rhine-Westphalia’s most north-western area were without power and with a consequent lack of heat in low
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Figure 1. Operation control by emergency task forces.
external wintry temperatures. Thus, farmers could not milk their cows and no warm food could be prepared. The task forces of the three counties met and, since the snow catastrophe had occurred across county lines, this meeting also included the responsible district government’s task force in Münster, which is the district capital. The local task forces of the involved counties organized the support and rescue forces from within the county area for and at the damage event, as well as providing support goods and appliances from the respective county area. Also, traffic control in the catastrophe area was managed. The task force of the district president of Münster had central tasks. He coordinated the work of the three county task forces with the three district governments so that they supplemented each other and did not overlap. In addition, he could arrange for help through non-governmental organizations (NGOs), such as the German Red Cross, the Worker-Samaritan-Association, Johanniter-Unfallhilfe and many others, so that helpless people could be brought to a warm shelter, that hospitals could be run, and that field kitchens were managed, for example. In addition, support goods, such as generators for emergency electric power, for the business of electric milking machines, illumination, heaters etc. needed to be moved from other parts of the government district in the concerned county areas. Furthermore, it had the obligation to defend against further dangers and also to organize repair measures of the involved big power-supply companies, as well as local power and utility suppliers. Even after the Cold War has ended, the extension of the civil defence is continued, but with a different standard. Mobile army surgical hospitals with decontamination facilities are intended for each county in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia for 50 injured as well as contaminated people. These military hospitals possess all necessary
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facilities for the situation, which normal hospitals are not able to provide due to the large numbers of injured people. The district government’s task force can bring further support facilities from the neighbouring counties to the place of the catastrophe at any time. In areas with water bodies (for example, the Rhine) water-rescue facilities are obtained centrally and are held ready in case of emergencies. The catastrophe protection authorities of the state of North-Rhine-Westfalia hold facilities for water treatment and supply available.
3. Conclusion The German authority for catastrophe defence is able to manage all incoming events under the aspects of the legal powers they have. The fire brigades are proud of the voluntary structure of their organisation; they are quick and can react effectively to demands in conjunction with the technical and health organisation. Precautions are been taken to keep the existing standard at this high level.
References Gesetz über den Feuerschutz und die Hilfeleistungen (FSHG) für das Land Nordrhein-Westfalen (Law About Fire Services in North Rhine-Westfalia) vom 10. Februar 1998. – GV. NW. 1998 Seite 122.
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Author Index Alkaz, V. Anke, S. Arghiuş, C. Aronov, A. Aronova, T. Bahnarel, I. Barry, D.L. Blohm, W. Bodnarchuk, T. Boz, L. Buchavy, Y. Chelidze, T. Coldewey, W.G. Coretchi, L. Didur, O. Dolidze, J. Fälsch, M. Gorova, A. Gramatikov, P. Ivana, D. Jobstmann, H. Kaldani, L. Kharytonov, M.M. Klimkina, I. Knaul, J. Kouteva, M. Kulbachko, Y. Lechelt, M. Loza, I. Mărginean, S.
29 66 130 144 144 226 261 66 247 3 216 11 115 226 163 11 77 216 51 89 192 11 122 216 287 144 163 66 163 130
Modoi, O.-C. Nedealkov, S. Ozunu, A. Pakhomov, O. Pascaly, P. Paskaleva, I. Petrescu, D.C. Petrescu-Mag, R.M. Petri, D. PIMS Program Popa, V. Rotariu, Monica Rotariu, Mugurel Rudakov, D.V. Rudolph, T. Sahakyan, K. Seroglazov, R. Spyra, W. Ştefănescu, L. Svanadze, D. Tofan, L. Toma, O. Tsereteli, E. Tsereteli, N. Turkman, A. Uysal, A. Valev, G. Varazanashvili, O. Yevgrashkina, G.P. Zaicenco, A.
130 207 98, 130 163 294 144 98 98 98 241 23 89 89 122 37 267 144 172 130 11 3, 89 3, 23, 89 11 11 278 278 144 11 122 29
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